Upzoned: Motivated Reasoning – The Psychology Behind Big Municipal Projects

Released on December 4, 2024

Hosts: Abby Newsham and Chuck Marohn
Occasional Guest: Norm (mentioned)
Podcast: Upzoned by Strong Towns

1. Introduction to Ottawa’s $1.5 Billion Infrastructure Plan

At the heart of this episode, Abby Newsham and Chuck Marohn delve into a significant municipal development story from Ottawa. The Ottawa City Council approved a hefty $1.5 billion infrastructure plan aimed at supporting a new suburban development known as Tuin (timestamps [04:56]-[05:02]). This plan has sparked considerable debate, raising questions about its long-term implications for urban sprawl and municipal finances.

2. Overview of the Tuin Development Project

Project Details:

• Location: Southeast end of Ottawa, approximately five miles (eight kilometers) from the city’s current urbanized areas.
• Cost: Estimated at $900 million to service the area with new infrastructure (timestamp [05:02]).
• Population Goal: Expected to house between 35,000 to 45,000 residents within 20 years.
• Purpose: Proponents argue that Tuin will address the housing crisis by providing a substantial number of new units.

Proponents’ Arguments:

• Self-Sustaining Growth: The development is designed to be financially balanced, with the community’s growth expected to cover infrastructure costs.
• Housing Crisis Solution: The urgency of building new housing to alleviate market shortages and rising costs.

Opponents’ Concerns:

• Forever Sprawl: Critics fear that Tuin will lead to indefinite urban expansion without guaranteeing long-term financial sustainability.
• Long-Term Costs: Even if initial development costs are covered by developers, the city remains responsible for ongoing maintenance and operations, potentially straining municipal budgets (timestamps [05:02]-[05:38]).

3. Motivated Reasoning in Municipal Projects

Chuck Marohn introduces the concept of motivated reasoning, emphasizing how personal interests and biases can influence public decision-making ([06:31]-[12:25]). He explains that even well-intentioned public servants may unconsciously prioritize outcomes that benefit their positions or careers, rather than the community’s best interests.

Key Points:

• Self-Interest vs. Public Good: Marohn clarifies that motivated reasoning doesn't necessarily stem from greed but can arise from a desire to see projects succeed, often overlooking potential risks.
• Psychological Barriers: Public officials may not fully consider the long-term financial implications of large projects if they are insulated from the risks (e.g., future taxpayers will bear the costs).

Notable Quote:

"It's difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it." – Chuck Marohn ([47:50])

4. The Role of Consultants and Conflict of Interest

The discussion shifts to the influence of consultants in shaping municipal projects. Marohn highlights how consultants, often paid by developers or through public funds, can present biased recommendations that favor the immediate interests of those funding them over the community's long-term wellbeing ([12:25]-[22:01]).

Issues Identified:

• Funding Influence: Public staff salaries and consultant fees may be indirectly funded by developers, leading to a conflict of interest.
• Advice Quality: Consultants may prioritize securing contracts over providing impartial, community-focused advice.
• Ethical Dilemmas: Even honest professionals can fall prey to systemic pressures that compromise the objectivity of their recommendations.

5. Satellite Towns vs. Organic Urban Growth

A significant portion of the episode critiques the concept of building satellite towns as a solution to housing shortages. Abby and Chuck argue that creating large, isolated suburban developments like Tuin is fundamentally flawed compared to organic, integrated urban growth.

Criticisms of Satellite Towns:

• Lack of Integration: Tuin is situated far from Ottawa’s existing urban core, potentially hampering economic vitality and community cohesion ([31:46]-[35:31]).
• Economic Viability: The new development may struggle to generate sufficient economic activity, leading to a stagnant or declining community.
• Alternative Solutions Ignored: Investments could be better allocated to enhancing existing neighborhoods, upzoning, and fostering denser, more sustainable growth within the established urban framework.

Supporting Argument:

"If you put 50,000 new residents in the existing framework, you would still be about a million residents short of what should be in that existing framework to actually make the city function and work." – Chuck Marohn ([31:46])

Notable Quote:

"Let me give you an example now, in city government...the bond agent just brokered the loan, got a fee for brokering the loan, and then someone else took over that risk. You would think differently about their advice." – Chuck Marohn ([14:57]-[20:48])

6. Recommendations for Mitigating Motivated Reasoning

Marohn proposes several strategies to address the entrenched issues of motivated reasoning and consultant influence in municipal projects:

Independent Consulting:

• Arm’s Length Advisors: Cities should engage consultants who are not involved in the implementation of projects they advise on, ensuring unbiased recommendations.
• Separate Roles: Consultants providing strategic advice should not be the same entities responsible for executing projects, reducing conflicts of interest.

Stewardship Mindset:

• Public Servants’ Role: Shift the perspective of city staff from responding to immediate demands to acting as stewards of the municipal corporation, prioritizing long-term community welfare over short-term gains.

Ethical Advisory Practices:

• Premium for Quality Advice: Willingness to pay more for consultants who provide genuine, unbiased advice, even if it means sourcing them from outside traditional networks.

Notable Quote:

"Because if cities aren't doing projects, if cities aren't keeping that churn going, they go out of business really, really quickly." – Chuck Marohn ([29:53])

7. The Broader Implications: Building Community vs. Expanding Infrastructure

Abby reinforces the importance of community-centric development over mere infrastructure expansion. She argues that integrating new housing into existing neighborhoods fosters a more vibrant, economically dynamic city compared to the segmented approach of satellite towns.

Key Takeaways:

• Community Vitality: Distributed housing supports local businesses and enhances neighborhood vitality.
• Cost Efficiency: Incremental, organic growth can be more financially sustainable, avoiding the high upfront costs and long-term maintenance burdens associated with satellite developments.

Notable Quote:

"Enabling policy and regulations that allow for organic city building is not easy for someone to take credit for." – Abby Newsham ([38:46])

8. Conclusion: Ethical and Psychological Challenges in Urban Planning

The episode concludes by emphasizing the intertwined nature of ethical behavior and psychological motivations in municipal planning. Abby and Chuck underscore the necessity for transparent, unbiased decision-making processes to ensure that urban development genuinely serves the community's needs.

Final Thoughts:

• Human Nature: Understanding that motivations and self-interests are inherent in human decision-making can help mitigate their adverse effects.
• Systemic Change: Advocating for structural changes in how consultants and public projects are managed to promote accountability and integrity.

Closing Quote:

"It's just human nature." – Chuck Marohn ([47:32])

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Chuck Marohn (@47:50): "It's difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it."

• Chuck Marohn (@31:46): "If you put 50,000 new residents in the existing framework, you would still be about a million residents short of what should be in that existing framework to actually make the city function and work."

• Chuck Marohn (@14:57): "Because if cities aren't doing projects, if cities aren't keeping that churn going, they go out of business really, really quickly."

• Abby Newsham (@38:46): "Enabling policy and regulations that allow for organic city building is not easy for someone to take credit for."

• Chuck Marohn (@47:32): "It's just human nature."

Episode Highlights:

• Critical Examination: The episode provides a thoughtful critique of large-scale municipal projects, specifically Ottawa’s Tuin development, questioning their long-term viability and ethical underpinnings.
• Psychological Insights: Delves deep into how motivated reasoning and self-interest can skew public decision-making, often detracting from community-centric outcomes.
• Practical Recommendations: Offers actionable strategies for mitigating conflicts of interest and promoting more ethical, transparent urban planning practices.
• Engaging Dialogue: Hosts maintain a conversational tone, making complex urban planning and psychological concepts accessible and relatable to the audience.

Conclusion: For urban planners, policymakers, and concerned citizens, this episode serves as a compelling reminder of the intricate balance between development, ethics, and psychological motivations. It advocates for a paradigm shift towards more sustainable, community-focused urban growth strategies, urging a reevaluation of entrenched practices that favor large-scale, potentially unsustainable projects.