
Iran’s “chaos strategy” consists of threatening the Strait of Hormuz and striking regional targets, weighing U.S. and Israeli escalation options amid Donald Trump’s political constraints before the midterms and concerns over oil markets, argues Victor Davis Hanson on today’s edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words.”
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Sammy Wink
They have elected a new Ayatollah, the son of the older Khamenei, and he has been reported in various manifestations to be either dead or to be without legs. We're not really sure.
Victor Davis Hanson
They had a picture of a large crowd to celebrate his appointment as a supreme leader and he didn't show up. But the problem is for the Iranians, they know that each person who says he's the head of the Revolutionary Guard or the Quds Quds Force or whatever, he's going to be dead.
Sammy Wink
What did you make of the conflict? Controversy over the elementary school for girls that was hit apparently by a Tomahawk missile. From reading everything, I couldn't quite tell if it was actually hit or not. There was an Iranian military base right next to it. So I thought that was very strange to be building a military base for your strange Islamic revolutionary.
Victor Davis Hanson
Strange? I would say it's typical in that part of the world. I mean, after October 7th, Hamas basically said to the Israelis, we're going into our subterranean city and we have exits and they're right under hospitals, schools and mosques, and we have command centers under there. Do you want to blow them up? Because if you do, our friends in the Western media are going to call it genocide.
Sammy Wink
Maybe Marco Rubio will be able to do something about Cuba. Isn't he Cuban himself? Ethnic heritage is Cuban.
Victor Davis Hanson
He's a fluent Spanish speaker, so we'll
Sammy Wink
see what he can do.
Victor Davis Hanson
I think Donald Trump said that, you know, Marco speaks the language. There is a subtle. I don't know how to say it. If you're just an uninformed observer like I am. There is a subtle change in Trump when you watch him. Yes, it was JD jd JD and then you have Marco the fireman. So when you have a problem with Panama, you send him when Vance blew up, but Zelensky and the Europeans, then you sent Marco over to kind of refine the good cop. And he's personable and he speaks Spanish. He's popular. It's really weird because these are the people who tell us democracy dies in darkness because democracy dies. And they were the people who say gerrymander. We have to gerryman because we wouldn't have done it. But only Texas did it, because when Texas did what Texas did, people said, oh, we can't do that. Two no's don't make a right. It isn't two nos. It's self defense for our democracy. In this next election, 40% of the people who voted for Donald Trump and the conservative candidates are going to have about 17% congressional and it could be down to 9, probably 9%. They don't believe in democracy.
Sammy Wink
Hello and welcome to Victor Davis Hansen in His Own Words. This is our Saturday edition and we have lots of news on the agenda. So we'll be taking some time to look at the war in Iran. There's a lot going on in Iran itself and, and there is a lot going on with the war in the United States and Israel. So we will be talking about that first and then we'll look at national politics and JD Vance and Marco Rubio, the rivalry between the two. Stay with us and we'll be right back.
Victor Davis Hanson
Since the founding of America 250 years ago, many things have changed, but some things never do. The commitment of husband and wife, the importance of passing along our values to our children, the faithfulness of God. Some wonder how we can ensure America will continue to thrive as long as we keep first things first. We've only just begun. America the Beautiful.
Sammy Wink
Welcome back. This is Victor Davis Hansen in his own words. We are a subsidiary of the Daily Signal that is run by Rob Bluey and we'd like we ask everyone to go to the Daily Signal and see a lot of other offerings besides this show. But you can certainly find Victor in short 5 minute videos there and in these longer form podcasts. So join him at the Daily Signal. Victor so there's lots going on in the war, so maybe some reflections on a couple of the new things in the news that they have elected a new ayatollah, the son of the older Khamenei and his name is Moshtaba, but nobody, we haven't seen him. And he has been reported in various manifestations to be either dead or to be without legs. We're not really sure. And I was wondering somehow if you wanted to talk about him first and then we can turn to other things.
Victor Davis Hanson
Leg injuries. It's kind of odd that they had a huge I don't know if they AI adapt their pictures of crowds for the Western consumption, but they had a picture of a large crowd to celebrate his appointment as a supreme leader and he didn't show up. So and if he he may be wounded. But the problem is for the Iranians, they know that each person who, who says he's the head of the Revolutionary Guard or the Quds Force or whatever, he's going to be dead. And he's going to be dead because of three things. One, the degree of photographic and satellite imagery is at a magnitude better than it was 10 years ago. They can See a mouse on the ground. And two, with drones and sophisticated guided missiles, but especially drones, you can go inside a house almost. And three, there's obviously some people in the Mossad, I doubt the CIA, but in the Mossad, who have been deeply implanted for years, and they are transmitting locations and the Mossad wants Iran to know that. So they get even more suspicious and paranoid and accuse falsely people who are innocent. They see suspicion among them. The problem Iran has or the problem we have? Both of them. What is their problem? Their problem is they have no navy now, no air force, and they are 92% down from their daily missile volleys and about 85 from drones. But they seem to be saving or hoarding these drones and missiles so that at certain times they can attack countries. For some reason, they're fixating on you United Arab Emirates, that's the most liberal, cosmopolitan, Western and most anti Iran. But they've also hit Qatar and Kuwait and Saudi. And I think the aggregate missiles and drones, if you hit there, are almost, if not more than what they've sent at Israel. So what is their grand strategy? I guess it would be what I've always called chaos strategy. They hit 12 or 13 countries, they close the Strait of Hormuz, and then they present a dilemma to the United States. They said, we are hitting. All they have to do is hit one tanker. And given that business people are so jumpy and the price of those ships and the price of the cargo, they could lose $100 million with a hit. And so what their message is, we have cargillen our oil export and we're going to export alone out of the Strait. Now, you can hit us, but the oil will go somewhere. It's fungible and it will help lower the price. So why don't you just let export and we will not let you export, that is you being the petrol kingdom. So they've actually had a ship go out of the Strait of Hormuz and we don't know quite how to handle that, whether to blow up their oil facilities when we think there might be a regime change. They'll need the oil revenue so we don't have to pay for it. Or anytime we take out any oil anywhere in a fungible world market, it hurts the global price. And Donald Trump is very sensitive that eight months away from the midterms, but their general strategy is to create so much chaos and tank the world oil market and put the world in a recession and threaten to widen it, threaten Europe, threaten anybody, that we just say, oh, make it all go away. And so what is Donald Trump's strategy? And he's got a lot of what ifs? And I mentioned before, there were three general, you know, there was a Venezuelan strongman solution that you could get a guy to put a lid on things, but he would be susceptible to reform in the next year. Two or three, you could just say, stewing your own Jews, walk away. It's your problem. Wouldn't want to see you, wouldn't want to be you. And we did enough for you guys and we impaired their military for four or five years. And then we could always blockade it and just say, you're not getting any Chinese stuff. We've blown up all our transport planes. So they're not going to send a transport plane to North Korea or they're not going to send one to the Hezbollah or the Houthis. And we could put an air embargo and we just say, or we could keep going and going and hoping at some point we break their back, literally. And there are nobody, nobody wants to come forward as a leader. And the people come out and protest. And then if they start killing them, we have people, you know, we can have airstrikes or something. But our strategy right now, the Americans in the Israeli strategy are going to bifurcate because Donald Trump has eight months to get reelected. If he doesn't, I mean, have his team reelected, if the Congress is lost, then he'll be pen and phone like Obama, executive orders and the bureaucracy, and he will be impeached, and members of his cabinet will be impeached and they will bring in anybody related to the Trump family on charges, I don't know what, and it will be slow down and we'll get nothing done. And the history says he will lose the House, but he will probably keep the Senate. But he has to pivot to the economy and say the fundamentals have already been resolved. The foreign investment is there, the oil, you know, greater production is there. Interest rates are going to go down a little bit. Housing is more affordable. Unemployment is tolerable. Inflation even in February didn't go up. It's been going down. It's not Joe Biden's average of 5.2 a year for four years. It's down 1.7, I think, in the month of January. So all the indicators are pretty good. Stock market wavers a little bit, but historically it's at such a high point, it's hard to imagine how it can get much higher, given the news. And then we don't know the problem with foreign Investment is Donald Trump has to show Kuwait and Saudi and all these people have promised five, six trillion dollars of investment. I'm going to protect you so you can invest in my country. But if he lets them take too much damage, they're going to say, you didn't do anything for me. You started a war and I didn't get. That's what they'll say. Even though privately they'll say to Donald Trump, thank you, I don't have to worry about Iran, but Donald Trump's got to protect those countries. And then they don't want to suffer so much damage that they need the money to rebuild their own infrastructure. They have promised a lot of infrastructure investment and new companies, etc. Inside the United States. So it's just. And then Israel has a different. Israel's main goal is the people are pretty united. They're being hit by Hezbollah. They want to keep going. They're going to say, you know, once the United States is in there and takes the heat and it's a war, then we can deal and destroy Hezbollah once and for all. They've almost done that. And then they want to keep taking out and taking out and taking out more of the leadership. The only other problem is that that enriched uranium is at one or two sites underground on the mountains. Some of it might have been at Fedor, where we already hit it, but we're going to have to hit those sites. And they're, I think the ones that people suggest that most of the enriched uranium at is much more formidable than the ones we took out. You might have to have seven or eight bombers in a row hit the same place with a bunker buster again and again and again. And I don't know if we have that many, that much ordinance or what, but if Donald Trump stops when there's uranium, enriched uranium unaccounted for, and people who called him a taco, Donald Trump always chickens out T, a C, O. Those were the left people in the left, and they did that all of 20, 25 up until the hit in the summer. And he can't win with those people. And they're going to say, well, you chickened out your chicken. Then he hit the uranium last summer and they said, oh, you're causing a war. Now they're already saying taco again because he wants to stop after 12 or 15 days.
Sammy Wink
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Victor Davis Hanson
Well, their subject right now, there's almost 300 Israeli planes active and there's probably over 600, 500 or 600Americans. Europe has 2,000 jet fighters. We have another 2,000 in the United States. So people keep saying we're distracted, we have more than enough. And what they're saying is this, not saying, but the subtext of what they're saying is this at the level that we're going right now where you are selecting military targets and we are Hitting civilian targets, we might have to up it a little bit. And that would mean unleash our terrorist dogs in Europe or the United States. And we saw the attack on the counter demonstration demonstrators out in front of Madame's house and they understood that right away when CNN, we'll get to that a little later. But two young teenage terrorists, ISIS affiliated, so they claimed throughout IEDs, and the CNN, which is alone basically in Iran at the bequest and with the support of the Iranian government, said that there were two teenagers and they wanted some sunshine and they just happened to go out. And you would have thought that they, they were either misidentified or the counter conservative demonstrators had thrown them out, but they didn't want to. When Iran sees that, they think, you know, we can do this again and again and again in the United States and in Europe. And these governments are so terrified of Islam and terrified of us, they will market in such a way that helps our propaganda. That's one thing they can do. And now they're saying they're going to go after banks. And I think Trump and those people say, we've been hitting military targets. We miss sometimes, but when you miss, you hit only a military target. Your primary goal, it is to hit radar and everything, but it's to get hotels, especially in Dubai, the Emirates. That's what you want to do. And we can escalate much better than you can. So far. We haven't hit your dams, we haven't hit your power grid, we haven't hit much of your oil refinery, one, but not many. We haven't hit your transportation, we haven't hit the private homes of all of you people. We can do that very easily, but we're holding off because we want to tone down and we're waiting for one of you people to come forward and say, okay, I'm a realist. I want to bring Iran back in the family of nations. And I won't get a bomb. I won't, you know, subsidize these terrorist proxies and I'll give the people more money and we won't invest so much in military. And so what I'm getting at is they have a finite ability to escalate, and it's based on their material potential to escalate. We have an endless supply. But our limitations are political, theirs isn't. They don't care what the people say. They feel that if they don't shoot more protesters and they don't fight back, they're going to be doomed. And if they're doomed. They're all going to be executed either by the Iranians, Iranians are killed by the Israelis or us in air attacks. So they know that if they lose Iran, they're dead. By the way, we have this picture of these leaders as die hard ideologues. It's not. Khamenei's son has billions of dollars invested overseas. I think his name was Laranjani, one of the defense ministers. His daughter was a graduate student in the United States and for a while she was a professor at Emory. And if you look at the Khamenei family, even the Khomeini family, and you look at their cousins and they're all in Europe and the west and they've got billions of dollars ensconced in Western banks. So this idea that these guys don't wear ties and suits or they're just different, I don't believe that at all. They're greedy like and they're corrupt. And I don't know why the United States doesn't expose that more and the Western government's more. But they don't have a lot of leverage. It's just psychological.
Sammy Wink
Well, since you're mentioning technology in warfare, they have a new thing called the Iron beam which is a, I think it's a, it's a. They're zapping things out. A laser that's zapping things out of
Victor Davis Hanson
there as a generator on a truck.
Sammy Wink
Yeah. And I was wondering though, just using that as an example, the article I was reading was going, wow, it's kind of like the games kids used to play with missiles in the air that are guided electronically.
Victor Davis Hanson
And I think what they're doing now is they're low wattage, 60 or 100 watt, you know, so they're able to hit a drone, but it takes four or five seconds to incinerate it, so it's hard to follow it. And we have some on ships and the Israelis are a little ahead of they have them, but the point is they know now how to calibrate upward. In other words, they have the technology to say we're going to give twice the juice, three times the juice. And if we get there, some of the new ones can incinerate a drone in one second so you don't have to keep following it. And they're much less affected by dust and fog and rain. But it's a way. I don't know if we are. We have so many ways with 50 caliber but 20 millimeter 37, we have all sorts of rapid firing guns and I'm sure that would be much cheaper. And I'm sure there are batteries all over the Gulf and Israel and on our ships that can knock these drones down.
Sammy Wink
But I was wondering more broadly, do you think that we are focusing on the defensive element of the United States military enough, meaning things like the Iron Dome, like missiles for defense? Do you think that our military has enough vested in that as well as the offensive?
Victor Davis Hanson
Well, we learned in Iraq, remember, Donald Rumsfeld was criticized for saying, we go to war with what equipment we have. And what he meant was we didn't know that they were going to have IEDs that were shaped charges that shred a Humvee and maim and kill our people. So they adopted. But in general, Western armies, ancient, modern, but especially right now, they put a higher premium on the survival of their soldiers because they have very low fertility rates and they have a different tradition. And so Americans will put more money in body armor and in defensive anti missile technology. Golden Dome or what? Because they just, they spend an enormous. And they're much more sensitive to casualties and fatalities. If you had shot any government in the west, if they had shot and killed 32,000 of their own people, everybody would know it because of the press and media and they would be gone and on trial immediately. But the Iranians, I saw that interview with the Iranian ambassador to the United Kingdom. He just said, well, we do what we have to do. And what he was saying is the subtext of that was, you know, Hafez al Assad killed 20,000 of his people in Hama in one town. Saddam Hussein, Hussein wiped out the march. This is what we do in this part of the world. So don't tell us what to do. And so, yeah, we put a lot of premium on defense and we're much more sensitive to casualties. If you had told General Grant or General Sherman or George Patton or Winfield Scott that one day the United States will have a massive force and will go halfway across the world and it will destroy the Persian ability to make war in 12 days. But it's terrified that it's lost seven people. And I'm not downplaying casualties, fatalities, it's horrible. But that's affecting us right now. We've already lost seven soldiers, but in a country with a lot less people, in the past that was acceptable. It's not now. I mean, we're not in a. The average longevity for an American right now is about 80 years old, male and female combined. And in those days it was about 45. So it's a good life and people don't want to lose it.
Sammy Wink
Yes. So, Victor, let's go to a break and then come back and talk a little bit about the school that was hit in Iran and 175 casualties. So stay with us and we'll be right back.
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Victor Davis Hanson
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Sammy Wink
welcome back. Victor is the Martin and Neely Anderson Senior Fellow in Military History and Classics at the Hoover Institution and the Wayne M. Archer Busky Distinguished Fellow in History at Hillsdale College for you who have just joined us. And you can find him at his website, victorhanson.com the name of the website is the Blade of Perseus. Please come join us there. So given all the West's concern for casualties, both soldiers and or civilian, the what did you make of the controversy over the school, the elementary school for girls that was hit apparently by a Tomahawk missile? From reading everything, I couldn't quite tell if it was actually hit or not, number one, and number two, that there was an Iranian military base right next to it. So I thought that was very strange to be building a military base for your strange Islamic revolutionary strain.
Victor Davis Hanson
I would say it's typical in that part of the world. I mean, after October 7th, Hamas basically said to the Israelis, we're going into our subterranean city and we have exits and they're right under hospitals, schools and mosques, and we have command centers under there. Do you want to blow them up? Because if you do, our friends in the Western media are going to call it genocide. And so Iran, number one, knows that. And you could see by the reaction of certain people that when you looked at Iran and the plumes went up from a bomb attack, they weren't all in one particular government. I mean, if you were going to attack Washington, it would be the Pentagon, the White House, it would all be there. It wouldn't be scattered all around. You might see the CIA and Langley or something. But when you saw those plumes, they were scattered all over the city. And what that Tells us is this was a Republican Guards, this was Quds headquarters. This was a military depot. And they were scattered intentionally to be by schools, mosques, hospitals. And that puts an enormous onus on the pilot. They're very exacting weapons. But. But you have no idea when you have a thousand or two thousand pound bomb, the exact explosive content versus the weather versus the exact target where you want to hit the building. You don't know what the wind is. You don't know. It's impossible to ensure that that building alone will be destroyed and not anything near. So this school was proximate to a military base and there were three suspects. There were the United States that was bombing, Israel was bombing and Iran either by accident by sending up missiles that might have been knocked down or something. I doubt that. Or miss in the summer war, about half their launches exploded on the pad itself or they disintegrated on the way into Israel. So and they shot the first day or two or they were trying to shoot things at us. So we don't know is that. But when Donald Trump says, he says first everybody has tomahawks, they're sold. We don't know who did it, but if it is us, we'll investigate. Senator Kennedy, John Kennedy from Louisiana said that he apologized the other day and said we did it. People in the United States had initially criticized Israel. So whoever did it, if it was the Americans or the Israelis, it was an accident. By trying to hit the base. They said we're going to take the gloves off. We warn you we're going to hit military targets. We're trying not to have any collateral damage, but we're not responsible. And so I don't know if those rules of engagement will change. The Iranians hope they will. But I don't know who did it. But it, but it looks if you have a US Senator saying that it was terrible and we apologize and you know, media voices. Megyn Kelly said that she was pretty convinced from the things she read and it may well be we hit it. And if we hit it, I think it'll be transparent as soon as we get the data. Same thing happened in the Kabul Remember when we hit a car and General Mark Melley said that was a righteous strike and they weren't terrorists, they were family and we destroyed the whole family. And then we went back and apologized and said it's sort of like a war zone as a whole city, you know, and there's not a lot of things dispersed as far as command and control in that city. That's what runs around that 15 million person outer Iran, inner Iran, I mean, Tehran. So it's tragic and I'm sure we'll man up to it if. And the evidence does seem to be leaning in that direction. But from what the President said, it's not conclusive yet. John Kennedy, Senator, maybe he's had a briefing with the CIA or something and he knows. And so he wanted to get out in front of everything and make it easier for Trump and just say, we did it.
Sammy Wink
Yeah. All right, let's turn then to Cuba. And I was wondering just broadly, what your thoughts are on that, just from this point of view. I don't know if your audience feels like this, but given what we've done in Venezuela, the expense for this Iran war, can't we just sort of get along with our Communist Cuba? Like, we don't need to invade that country. But I don't know that Trump's planning that at all or anything. But, you know, what's. What should we be doing in Cuba?
Victor Davis Hanson
The problem is that that country is not just Bolivia that goes communist for a while or the crazy nut in Colombia who's a Communist. It's like Maduro, but it's a lot better at it. So wherever there is a communist uprising or government anti American, there are Cubans there. A lot of Cubans got killed protecting Maduro. His special. They're considered the elite bodyguard of a communist dictator in the Western. They were even in Africa. Reagan was fighting them in Angola, giving money for freedom fighters that were fighting Cubans. They were all the way. Now 20,000 of them were in there. That's one of the reasons they're poor. So the question is, everybody wants to neutralize this country that is rabidly anti American, and it sends out Cuban insurrectionaries all throughout South America. And so we were having a conservative or a traditional or a pro American or a moderate 1990s, early 2000 phenomenon. And then it started to turn hard left with Vinitou, Chavez and then Colombia and then Bolivia, then. And Peru and the crazy people in Argentina. And the Cubans were fanning all that. They're very sophisticated. And now we feel Russia's tied down and Russia can't. We have an embargo on Russian oil and they can't get the oil there. And then Maduro is gone, so Venezuela is not allowed to give them the oil and nobody's going in or out, so they're bankrupt. So then question is, do you really want to have a Bay of Pigs type thing where you send in people to fight and have a big blow up. And then the MAGA people say with good reason. Well, I could put up with Venezuela. Nobody got killed. He was a communist dictator and that was a one off like Soleimani or Wagner group. But then you went in and bombed. You had bombed earlier. The Iranian nuclear. Well, I could put on that. That was 25 hours of war, big deal. And then you went into Iran again. Well, I'm getting a little wary of you guys. And now you're going to go into Cuba. This was not. These are forever wars. That's what the argument that Steve Bannon or Tucker or Candace or Marjorie Taylor Greene are making. It doesn't help when senators, I mean when Lindsey Graham says that Cuba's next, you know, it's like as if we're looking for dragons. A slave, so to speak. John Adams warning it. So you want to find a way to get communists out there without going in there, but still keeping the pressure on. And I think they're going to go to Cuba and say you're broke, you have no oil, you have no electricity, people are almost starving and we're right next to you and we've got 200,000 Cubans in Miami area and they're all willing to help. All we need from you is a reasonable thug, somebody who doesn't export at revolution all around, somebody doesn't kill their own people. A strong person and he can even have backgrounds in your regime. But he's got to be somebody who has a turn, of course. And if you find that person, we will engage one of you. So, and I think that's the ultimatum we gave them and they're considering it and we don't have to go in there and do anything. He has eight months, yes, before the midterms, but there is a magic period, 60 days where you need six months to get your money going, your campaigns going, the primaries are all over. You need to get the economic news out, out, out. And the left knows that. So they don't want to talk. The left doesn't want to talk about. I haven't heard the word affordability in a while. When the inflation rate's going down, they don't want to talk about it. They didn't want to talk about gas because gas was 30 or 40 cents cheaper than the cheapest it ever got under Biden. We're producing more oil than we ever have. So they don't, you know, one day Trump is a taco and the next day he's, he's a warmonger. They have no consistent message other than whatever Donald Trump is for, I'm against. But he has to concentrate on the economy and he can, he can keep the House.
Sammy Wink
If he does well, maybe Marco Rubio will be able to do something about Cuba. Isn't he Cuban himself? Ethnic heritage is Cuban.
Victor Davis Hanson
He's a fluent Spanish speaker.
Sammy Wink
So I'll see what he can do.
Victor Davis Hanson
I think Donald Trump said that, you know, Marco speaks the language and there is a subtle. I don't know how to say it. If you're just an uninformed observer like I am. There is a subtle change in Trump when you watch him. Yes, he's starting. It was JD jd JD and of course, the Trump boys wanted JD And JD Is a great guy. I've written extensively how he just eviscerated the mainstream media in the 2024. Everybody he debated, he destroyed. Made Waltz look like the buffoon he is. And he was kind to Waltz. He wasn't vindictive. He kind of said, this is all you have. I don't want to hurt you. I have nothing against you, but you're an idiot. It's my job to show people that you're an idiot, but you're a sad sack idiot.
Sammy Wink
You're making it too easy for me.
Victor Davis Hanson
Yes, that was his attitude and he took on the moderators and so is a very formidable person. But in this particular case, he is the maga. He's the go to MAGA base person. So whatever you say with Iran 1 and 2 and Venezuela and looking at Cuba, this was not MAGA. You know, there hasn't. I mean, if you think about it, we went into Iran and took out their nuclear facilities for four or five years. They're rebuilding them, but that was a good mission. Nobody was killed. We went into Maduro, got him out. I don't know how they. They go into a big country like Venezuela and you grab the head of state right in the middle of all of his Cuban bodyguards and all these people and you whiff and you get no deaths. We know of maybe severe injuries, some people were injured. And then you go in and you just try to take on the whole country of Iran. And so far you've lost seven people. But that's not getting out. What's getting out is serial engagements abroad and we are spending too much money on non Americans. And so J.D. vance is put in an impossible situation. He knows that Trump values, of all things, loyalty, loyalty, loyalty, loyalty, loyalty. And yet he knows the MAGA base is his source of strength. Got him elected in Ohio And Tucker's son works on his staff. And you can make the argument that Tucker and Don Jr. And a few others were instrumental in getting him the nomination. Okay. And then you have Marco the fireman. So when you have a problem with Panama, you send him. When Vance blew up, but Zelenskyy and the Europeans, then you sent Marco over to kind of refine the good cop. And he's just a utility person and he's personable and he speaks Spanish. He's popular. And so Trump now, with his antennas up, he said, well, Mr. President, did you have a disagreement with JD Banter, Vice President? No, he's a little bit less enthusiastic, but he's enthusiastic. I'm just paraphrasing. And then he pivoted to Margo. Oh, Margo, you know, oh, man. Marco. Marco is the best secretary of state in history. And so that's a message, I think, to the MAGA people and the JD You've got to clean this stuff up. And I will promise you I'm going to adhere to MAGA principles. We had to take out the Iranian stuff and we had to get rid of this communist thug. And now we're done for time being and we're going to settle down. But you have to divorce yourself from these extremist agents, and that's going to be very hard for him. But when. And Tucker Carlson, again, I have to preface it, I was on a show for years, I never heard any of this. In fact, there's a. I don't know if you've seen it. There's an Internet potpourri of things he said about the dangers of radical Islam and Iran. I mean, man, he was really formidably in favor of watching being vigilant. And now what he's saying is almost, you know, pro Islam. So. But nevertheless, when he says that Donald Trump's decision was evil to hit Iran, and then I want to be very careful because he has been mischaracterized. He didn't say Americans are going to go rape Iranian. He said that when you demand unconditional surrender. Now, who did that? Who said we're going to have unconditional surrender? Over the weekend? Donald Trump. He said, any time in history, when you want, I'm paraphrasing, unconditional surrender. We know what that leads to. Mass rape of the defeated. Two things it doesn't. America demanded absolute unconditional surrender of Japan. Douglas MacArthur went in as pro consul. He was there for basically eight years. There were occasional violences of anywhere where you have soldiers among civilians but there was not mass rape by American. No American said, we defeated you Japanese. Surrender your women. And we didn't do it. The Soviets did when they captured Berlin. Absolutely. And the Germans did in Eastern Europe. Europe and in Operation Barbara. But we, our GIs might have. They executed some GIs for rape. There was a racial component to that. They were black GIs. I'm not sure they would have been. I'm not sure that had they been white, they would have been given the death penalty. But that's what here nether here and now. What I'm getting at is Tucker was wrong historically that victorious soldiers are not given license to mass rape. But more importantly, what does that say about the United States soldiers? It says, it implies, it infers that if a US soldier is given, oh wow, I'm in the 101st Airborne. And if they surrender, then I'm going to be charged of peacekeeping in Tehran. And if I'm charged in peacekeeping in Tehran, I get to rape. This is great. I mean, that's the implication. It's silly. So when he says things like that, what is J.D. van supposed to do? You know what I mean? And he's associated. It's not his fault. He didn't say it, but he's associated with that. So you have this. I'm loyal to my friends. I don't let the media determine whom I opportunistically attack or divorce or separate versus oh my God, it's another day of Tucker, it's another day of Bannon. And there's this anti Semitic element and we're working with Israel and this is going to hurt me. So I would. And Trump is starting. Trump is a realist. He's not an ideologue. You saw with Kristi Noem, he basically called him in here and he said, we know what he said. We love you, Kristi. You're doing a great job. But you know what? The optics terrible. Why are you spending my money on ads about you? And what's the thing with Corey? You know, so we're going to shift you to another job. Great job. Tremendous. And then that's what he does. So he's probably saying to his inner circle, great job, wonderful. But you can't have the impression that is now current and spreading, even without media involvement, that we have people in this White House that are not sensitive to a growing incidence of antisemitism on the right. We had this conversation two years ago and somebody said to me, well, there's a lot of anti Semites. I said, there hasn't been anti Semites on the right for years. It's a left wing phenomenon. So this is new. It really is. And it's. I don't know what it is. I don't know if it's. It's a group of disaffected. We've talked about that. Disaffected young people, mostly white, who are sick of dei, sick of affirmative action, who feel that affirmative action, dei, special groups, they were not given a chance of affirmative level playing field. And the architects of affirmative action and DI were mostly wealthy, elite, minorities and whites. And they looked down at the clingers, the deplorables, the irredeemables, the garbage, the scum, the dray. I'm just quoting clingers. Yeah, from Biden, Hillary Clinton. Exactly. And they are in an arrested state of development. We all know children, nieces, nephews, mostly men, though, who are not marrying. At 23, 24, 25, they're still at home. They are taking three units now, six units and two more semesters. They're running up student debt. They have worthless degrees, they're not going to vocational schools and they're living with their mom and dad. And they feel they're not out on their own. They're not getting married, they're not having nuclear families. They're not no kids. And that group is angry. And they think globalization enriched the too close, which it did and it didn't help them. And they were always the butt of toxic masculinity and all. And they never hear anybody talking about that. So then Tucker comes in or Candace or Steve Bannon, and they make 80% of their message is very, you know, it's empirical, there's logic to it. But then to get visibility or to heighten the message or to sharpen it. And then they sort of say, I'm just throwing this out there, just saying, you know, I don't know, I think that Mossad might have killed Charlie Kerr. I don't know. I'm just saying. Just saying. Or, you know, Macron's wife. I'm just saying, may have a phallus. Just saying. Or I'm not saying we didn't land on the moon, but in all of those hyperboles, there is a core about the Jews and Israel and that is dangerous.
Sammy Wink
Well, Victor, let's welcome another sponsor and then we'll come back and talk a little bit about California. We have a sponsor, Patriot Mobile. Everyday Americans make choices that shape our country's future, right down to which cell phone provider we should support. Here's what most people don't realize. Patriot Mobile isn't just a wireless provider. They're an activist organization funded by selling top tier cell phone service. They've been on the front lines defending our freedoms long before it was cool. Standing in the gap when others wouldn't. The best part is they deliver prioritized premium service on all three major US networks giving you the same or even better, backed by 100% US based customer support. Get unlimited data plans, mobile hotspots, international roaming and more. And when you switch to Patriot Mobile, you'll help grow a movement that fuels a Christian conservative cause. Every bill you pay helps advance the values of faith, family and freedom. Switching is easier than ever. Activate in minutes. Keep your number, keep your phone or upgrade. Take a stand today. Go to Patriot mobile or call 972 Patriot and use promo code VDH for a free month of service. That's patriotmobile.com Victor or call 972 Patriot and make the switch today. And we'd like to thank Patriot Mobile for sponsoring the Victor Davis Hanson in His Own Words show. And we are part of the Daily Signal. We're a subsidiary of the Daily Signal.
Victor Davis Hanson
So.
Sammy Wink
So Victor, let's turn to California and since you were already mentioning dei, just I was wondering your thoughts first because there's a lot of things in California on the prop the new I think it's called an assembly constitutional amendment number seven and it's intended to nullify proposition 209 so they can go back to preferencing special groups that historically have been underachieving. And I was wondering, it just passed the House and it's headed for the Senate in California and it needs, it's an amendment so it needs 2/3 vote. And what do you think?
Victor Davis Hanson
It's really weird because these are the people who tell us democracy dies in darkness and they were the people who say gerryman, we have to gerryman because we wouldn't have done it. But only Texas did it. And they're the people who are going to gerrymann California. So in this next election, 40% of the people who voted for Donald Trump and the conservative candidates are going to have about 17% congressional and it could be down to 9, probably 9%. They don't believe in democracy. We've had this on the ballot in two different forms twice, twice to stop racial discrimination. And the people, and this is the interesting part, 27% of California residents were not born in the United States and they're not coming from Europe, trust me, they're coming from Asia. And Latin America and Africa. And they vote because they're legal. I'm talking about most of them are legal residents. So my point is, if they vote overwhelmingly three years ago, I think it was to keep meritocracy, then their representatives are way out of touch. And they're just doing this as part of the new strain of insanity in the Democratic Party. And half of me wants them to do it because they are taking the Democratic Party, which isn't even. There is no Democratic Party now. There's this people that control it, like aoc, the squad, and they will. Newsom the other day just said that Israel was an apartheid society. What an idiot. Does he have any idea that if you are not a Jew and you are living in Israel and you're an Arab, you can vote, you can hold office, you can be a judge? You think that the Jews in Germany or blacks in apartheid South Africa could be judges? Or they. It's just insane. And he's doing that to reflect this movement that DEI is dying. Nobody wants it. It's part of the Trump counter revolution. And these people that don't represent the people, it's a 70, 30 issue. They're on the losing end, and they're trying to go through this crazy legislature that's gerrymandered to death. If you look at the California districts, when you have Republicans, they get one or two districts and they put all the Republicans in it, and then all of the mixed districts with 55% Republicans, they are gerrymandered down to 35. And so there's no support for it. It's contrary to what the people on two occasions. But it's typical of California gay marriage. Two times was voted down by the people, and a federal judge had already basically written the opinion. And the moment it passed, it was like overturned, like that. But they haven't been able to get a judge because of the supreme court ruling of 2023. They can't get a judge to do what they usually do, overturn the ballot proposition. So now they are trying to get the legislature to do it. And Gavin Newsom will sign it, because he will do this. He will sign it it, and then he thinks he's going to get the nomination, and then he knows that he can't win the United States on that. So then he's going to say, I don't know. I think I'll have Ben Shapiro or somebody on my podcast. You know, I kind of. I sign it. I don't really believe it. I think, you know, just like transgendered stuff. I'd be angry too. So it's a malicious thing to do. And who's behind it? Seiu, unions. Another thing about it is the Latino leadership is way out of touch with a Latino plebiscite. When they have a plebiscite, Latinos vote pretty much indistinguishable on that issue than white people, so called. I don't even like to use the word white because most of the Latino people I know are whiter than I am. In the summer, it means nothing anymore. But the point is there is not a big minority constituency for special preferences. And the reason there isn't is every time a DEI appointment is high profile and they're fired, whether it was for cause or not, everybody says they're dei. You know, that air traffic controller and that dei. The Palisades fire. Oh, vice mayor got, you know, the head of Water and Power, Di. And there's some truth to that. So nobody wants to be stigmatized. It's just, it's just, it's the modern version when I was growing up, of white privilege. I shouldn't say white privilege, but the old boy network. So when I was growing up, anybody who could get a job at either Del Monte or Calcan Canries, and where I live, those were union jobs. And they were. When I worked in a packing house for somebody, I made $1.35. Those jobs were paying $4.50. So when we were on campus, you know, hey, is your dad a union foreman? Hey. Oh, my mom is a receptionist at Calcan. Oh, my dad's a field man for Del Monte. I can get you on. And it wasn't based on education or ability. And that's what DEI is, only using race instead of networking. But the point I'm making is when you went on there, I worked at certain places, I won't name them. And there were people who got hired because of their. And then everybody would say, you're just a flunky. Your mom called, your dad called, you know, or something like that.
Sammy Wink
Yeah, I did. In reading about it, they did say SEIU was the big backer.
Victor Davis Hanson
SEIU is the problem with California. I have a nice little anecdote for our listeners. I was going to a local dmv. I won't mention the name. And I walked in there and I noticed something, that all of the employees had purple T shirts, S, C, I, U. And it was strike with an exclamation point or something. And they were threatening, threatening government. State employees were threatening to strike unless they got a raise. But it was just a total chaos. It was so poorly organized. And I was in this line and I was going in there to tell them that I had changed the ownership of this vehicle and they had put the wrong. They had sent me a notice saying that I didn't and they had made a mistake. So I was explaining. I waited for about three hours. I didn't have an appointment. And I went and I said to the. She was very friendly. And I thought, well, she's friendly. And I said, do you really think it's wise to wear a shirt saying that you're going to strike? And all the employees are political. Now this is a political issue when a lot of people here might not agree. And she goes, you want to continue or do you want to go home? That's the seiu.
Sammy Wink
Wow, that was very nice of her to at least warn you, huh? Well now let's go on to another issue in California or somebody else very similar actually, because you've been talking about gerrymandering and this particular representative, I believe it's a congressional representative, Kevin Kiley has decided, he's Sacramento West Sacramento representative and he's decided that because they gerrymandered his district to be more Democratic that he is actually going to declare himself an independent. So his answer is to get out of both parties and be an independent and maybe he can keep his gerrymandered seat.
Victor Davis Hanson
Well, there's strategies because we have these open jungle primaries and if you have Republicans that have been in there 20 years and they have no higher political ambition and they're the kind of like our representative near me, David Valadao, he's sort of an apolitical guy. He voted to impeach Trump. I think he's the only of the 10 that's still surviving. Maybe there's one more. But he's known, he's of Portuguese background, but he's fluent in Spanish. His district's about 55, 60% Mexican American. It's very left wing. And he keeps winning. He lost one race and then had a hiatus of two years. He came back. He's a hands on guy. He was a former dairy farmer, middle of the road. So people if he, I think he can still win in that district. But there are other, when they put it'll be a new district. But my point is this, that there'll be a few people of either party that have transcended politics and they will go into these races in districts that are majority of the opposite party and they may win. Kylie is kind of known like that.
Sammy Wink
Yeah, it will be interesting to see if. If it works to declare as an independent. All right, let's go ahead and take a break and then we'll come back out a few more things about California and New York. So stay with us and we'll be right back. Welcome back. Please join Victor at his website, the Blade of Perseus. You can subscribe for the subscriber materials, which are two articles a month, a week, sorry, and a video for $6.50 a month or $65 a year. So that get you Victor's special writings. But there's lots of free stuff at the website, so please come join us there. You can also find Victor on X. His handle is D. Hansen. And on Facebook at Hanson's Morning Cup. So, Victor, I was wondering Your thoughts on A.B. hernandez, who actually is from our area. I believe he. She, I guess is transsexual. And she's winning all the track meets. She's taking medals away from other. Other high school girls in long jump, high jump and triple jump. And I was wondering your thoughts. I mean, you can. I've just a note. You can look at pictures of her receiving a medal and the other girls that are got not the gold medal or the. The winning medal right next to her. And you can see how wiry she is. Broad shoulders, even though she's. She, for a man would be somewhat slight. She obviously has a different physical.
Victor Davis Hanson
Yeah, I think she's a special case because there's no attempt at femininity. When you see her, she doesn't look like a woman. She looks like a man and sort of like the boxer, the Algerian or Moroccan boxer in the last Olympics that now kind of brag that he had testosterone. Anyway, so I guess there's no pretense. Again, the transgender movement doesn't tell us why that this syndrome of gender dysphoria having a cognitive, spiritual, psychological profile in the wrong physical body, as far as gender sex is concerned, why it exploded in the last 10 years, why wasn't it on the 96 Democratic agenda? Why now? And it became almost like the Me Too movement. You know what I'm saying? Why right now? Do you really believe that right now there is any more or less women who feel that they're being sexual? It's in the papers every day, but it's not a hysterical reaction. Right. So my point is, I'm not saying that wasn't necessary. I'm just saying that these are groupthink phenomena. And we know from scientific studies that Gender dysphoria is 1 in 30, 40,000 people. People. You know what I'm saying? So my point is this. When you have 20% of a college campus, I think Brown was almost 30, said that they would consider transitioning. If you took that same poll today, there wouldn't be 30%. So that has crested. I don't mean with the far right. Demonize people. No, I'm saying that the people no longer feel it's. That there's a cache. I noticed something very ironic. I work at a university. Four years ago, I just looked at the administrators that sent us these email. You know how an administrator says anytime there's a controversy, they always use boilerplate. If the controversy is over a conservative, then they just isolate that. And they say, this is not who we are. So if there's a rope that was embedded in a tree 10 years ago, I'm referencing an act and somebody who's African American say it was intended for them. They say, well, this is not who we are. But if it's somebody beats up a Jew and that person's left wing, then they'll say, and we deplore anti Semitism and Islamophobia and all other. See, they add that, but then they sign their name, they, them, or that Z, whatever that was. And that's disappeared. Here I see these administrators and they're not listing their pronouns anymore. Well, why not? Your people of principle. And they demonized, terrorized, went after people who didn't. And now the fad has crested. And it's crested because there's a reality there. And A. Hernandez.
Sammy Wink
Yeah, it's A.B. hernandez.
Victor Davis Hanson
Yes. I like to ask A.B. hernandez one question. You're making the argument that your transgendered status should be and is no different from the women on the second place tier and the third place at the victory stand, that you're as much a woman as they are. Okay, could you explain to me that in almost all sports, when women say they are men and they take testosterone, but they are biologically women, even if they've had their breasts removed, why do they not win sports that are physical? Maybe they're chess or shooting, but I'm talking about the types of sports that you win. How come they don't exist? Statistically, they're insignificant. And yet by your logic, they should be just as much men after they declare their new gender or they construct a new gender, then you do. But it doesn't happen because biology is immutable and they don't talk about that. When we talk about sports, we never talk about that. There's a dog barking.
Sammy Wink
There is. And so we're going to have to end the show a little bit prematurely early, but that's okay. We are on a hard break from our dogs. So thanks to the audience for joining us. And thank you, Victor, for all your wisdom today.
Victor Davis Hanson
Thank you. We have a work crew outside that's fixing something, and so they're. They want to talk, I have to be honest.
Sammy Wink
All right.
Victor Davis Hanson
And I want to thank all of you again. I'm getting a lot of letters with very poignant stories about how cancer's affected your family, tips of how to deal with it. And I really admire the courage that people write.
Sammy Wink
Yeah.
Victor Davis Hanson
And it's just the way it is.
Sammy Wink
And our only topic left was Mandami's response to the attack outside his house. But we'll leave that for Jack and Victor in their next show.
Victor Davis Hanson
Yeah, I want to talk about that.
Sammy Wink
All right, so join. Join Jack and Victor later. And thanks to everybody. This is Sammy Wink and Victor Davis Hansen, and we're signing off.
Victor Davis Hanson
Thank you, everybody. Thank you for tuning in to the Daily Signal. Please, like, share and subscribe to be notified for more content like this. You can also check out my own website@victorhansen.com and subscribe for exclusive features. In addition,
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Episode: Iran’s Chaos Strategy, Trump’s Political Tightrope, Cuba, and California’s DEI Push
Release Date: March 15, 2026
Host: Victor Davis Hanson with co-host Sammy Wink
Produced by: The Daily Signal
This episode features Victor Davis Hanson’s analysis of major geopolitical events and domestic policy debates, focusing on Iran’s current turmoil and regional aggression, the risk calculus of the Trump administration as elections loom, policy toward Cuba and Venezuela, and the growing backlash against DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) initiatives in California. Hanson, known for historical perspective and candor, addresses the interconnectedness of recent world events and ongoing cultural and political reckonings in the U.S.
Timestamps: [00:00], [04:57]–[13:39], [16:19]–[22:39]
Timestamps: [27:11]–[31:40]
Timestamps: [20:41]–[22:39]
Timestamps: [22:39]–[25:22]
Timestamps: [31:40]–[37:03]
Timestamps: [37:03]–[48:19]
Timestamps: [50:09]–[57:07]
Timestamps: [61:55]–[66:29]
On Iran’s leadership and regime fear:
“If they lose Iran, they’re dead. ... Khamenei’s son has billions of dollars invested overseas.” (VDH, [19:10])
On western tolerance for casualties:
“If you had told General Grant or General Sherman or George Patton ... that [the U.S.] will destroy the Persian ability to make war in 12 days ... but [be] terrified that it's lost seven people.” (VDH, [23:48])
On DEI and political disconnect:
“Half of me wants them to do it because they are taking the Democratic Party ... there is no Democratic Party now.” (VDH, [52:06])
On union power in California government:
“She goes, ‘You want to continue or do you want to go home?’ That’s the SEIU.” (VDH, [58:17])
On anti-Semitism and ideological shifts:
“There hasn't been anti-Semites on the right for years. It's a left-wing phenomenon. So this is new. It really is.” (VDH, [47:54])
On the rise and fall of the transgender movement:
“Now the fad has crested ... I see these administrators and they're not listing their pronouns anymore. Well, why not? Your people of principle.” (VDH, [64:13])
For listeners seeking a historian’s blend of context, blunt analysis, and connections between American culture and grand strategy, this episode delivers an unfiltered tour through the current moment’s challenges.