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Congressional retirements are hitting a modern record heading into the 2026 midterms, and author, political scientist, and professor Dr. Tom Schaller joins Matt to break down what it all means. More Republicans are fleeing the House than at any point in the last century — tied with Trump's own first midterm in 2018 — and historically, that's a very bad sign for the party in power. Tom and Matt dig into what the retirement wave means for Speaker Johnson's razor-thin majority, which races to watch, and why the fundamentals of 2026 look increasingly like a Democratic wave election. Plus, they get into the cracks forming inside the MAGA coalition, Trump's cratering approval numbers, and whether the dam with Trump voters is finally starting to break.

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