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- [00:03]
A
This is a global player original podcast. I was more struck, if I'm honest, by this word hate that I kept on hearing people say they hate Keir Starmer. To hate someone is an incredibly strong word.
- [00:20]
B
I've never hated Keir Starmer. I've come to slightly loathe him because I think that his tenured reaction to criticism, his inability to appeal to anybody, it is intensely irritating. Now, we're not calling this an emergency pod because I think it's ridiculous when people do that, but we have decided to do, haven't we, Tessa? An additional podcast. Given that we are recording this at what, about half past five on Friday evening, a lot of the results have come in from the local elections and the Scottish and Welsh elections, but there's still a long way to go, which is great for me because of my program starting at seven. So, Tessa, what have you made of it so far?
- [01:07]
A
This is all about cultural symbolism, big picture politics being played out on the canvas of local elections. So although we go, oh, it's sad about the high street and there's a pothole and, you know, I can't walk my dog in the way that I once could. Actually what's grabbed the headlines are the two parties and we're seeing them also grab seats in an unprecedented fashion. Particularly reform are players who were talking about things that have no agency or relevance in local politics. Like that whole thing about Nigel Farage dumping detention centres into green constituencies. That's not in the mandate of a local councillor or a local council. So it's really weird. It's a really unsettled political landscape, aside from the blowing apart conventional politics of Labour and Tory.
- [01:58]
B
Well, I think what you have to look at these local elections in is the context of previous local elections and we haven't got the final results yet, but it's quite clear that the lie of the land here, and it has never. I don't think there's ever been a case where the governing party has had such a bad day. Now, as I say, we don't know exactly what the final loss is going to be for Labour, but it looks as if it's going to be well into four figures and. And even in Thatcher's worst time as prime minister, most unpopular time, she never lost this many. So. But I think it goes wider than that. I think the significance of these elections are that they have blown apart the two party system.
- [02:45]
A
I hear that. We can't deny that. Interestingly, I was tracking back through previous local elections, midterm ones, when generally the incumbent gets a bit of a kicking and on average the losses stack up to around 1/6 of of the seats. And it's looking like where we're sitting late afternoon on Friday, that the Labour Party will have lost about two thirds of their seats, so double the scale of a standard loss for an incumbent government. But what's fascinating about this, Ian, is, and you're going to hate me for it, But I think 10 years on, we are still seeing the impact of Brexit being played out like never before. If you look where reform really shored up puppets vote and where other parties like the Greens, which have had a reasonable time, we can't confirm exactly how well they've done on the other side of the scale, we still haven't, I would say, pulled ourselves together and I'm wondering if we ever will actually politically.
- [03:48]
B
Not quite sure what you mean by pulling ourselves together. Because if you look at where reform are winning, yes, it is in quite Brexity areas, but it's also in non Brexity areas too. I think there is such a disillusion now across the political spectrum, which is why the Greens are doing well. I say they're doing well, they're not doing quite as well as I thought they might, but they are gaining hundreds of seats. And if you look, if you delve down into individual areas and take for example, East Anglia, I've just been looking at Norfolk and Suffolk. Now, there are parts of Norfolk that have always been a bit reformy, but they are winning. I mean, take Norwich, for example, which has been a Labour city since time immemorial. The Greens have also done quite well in Norwich going back to the the 1980s. But the ward that I stood in when I was a student in the. Just north of the city centre, almost 100% council housing. Labour would just weigh the votes, they didn't need to bother to count them. And I would get 500 votes as a Conservative, the Labour candidate would get 1500. That seat and all of the seats around it on these council estates in Norwich, they've all gone to reform. Now, I wouldn't have necessarily predicted that yesterday, I have to say. So it's not just sort of these Brexit y areas, it's actually now in some urban areas. And this is why I wonder whether when the London results come through, we're also going to get a lot of surprises there.
- [05:16]
A
I'm going to challenge that slightly in your more metropolitan centres. So certainly we've seen reform take its first London council, but again, on the fringes of London. And if you looked at the Brexit map ten years ago, there was plenty Brexit vote ringing the doughnut, if you like, around London. And what you've seen is. And the maps show this because I've been looking at comparative maps where you had a heavy Leave vote. You have a doubling down and a tendency towards.
- [05:44]
B
But what I'm telling you is that Norwich was a very remainer city and yet reformer winning all of these seats in Norwich.
- [05:51]
A
But was that particular council area that referred to as a Labour area or was that a remain voting area?
- [05:58]
B
Yes, absolutely. No, no, the whole of, the whole of Norwich, whether you, whether you look at it from the outer Norwich or the inner Norwich point of view, was very. In fact, I think it had one of the highest concentration of remain voters. The southern part of Norwich is a bit different because it's dominated by the university. So the Greens have won in those kind of wards. But I mean, if I tell you that in the whole of Norfolk, well, you guess. How many seats did the Conservatives win on? I mean there's about 86 seats on Norfolk County Council. How many do you think the Conservatives won?
- [06:31]
A
How many did they have in, in the last local election? How many did they win?
- [06:35]
B
I don't know, but they, I think they were in control of the council.
- [06:37]
A
Yeah. So I would, we would expect them historically midterm under a Labour government, I think, to probably claim about the majority. So we'd expect 50. And because you clearly are surprised by the result, I'm going to say about 25, 6. Oh my God.
- [06:52]
B
And then let me tell you this, there's a new sort of independent party called the Great Yarmouth, something like Great Yarmouth first. I mean it's, it's something like that. They won every single seat in Great Yarmouth. So they actually have more seats on Norfolk County Council than the Conservative Party does. And labor have done terribly, which. Okay. In rural Norfolk they've, they've never done very well. But you have these pockets like Kings Lynn down and market Great Yarmouth, Norwich, where Labour have traditionally always got lots of seats. Not this time. And Suffolk is a mirror image of it as well.
- [07:27]
A
How do we explain this, Ian? How do you explain this implosion? We know that historically when the Labour Party emerge and the Liberals die away, there's been vast enfranchisement of women, of working men. There's been a world war. There are serious explanations that make sense of the death of one two party system and its replacement with another two party system. But if you look today, you know I know that I pinpointed Brexit in the landscape, but again, Brexit was the result of economic malaise, of a failure to recover from the 2008 crash. And it's almost like people are no longer prepared to be patient with the standard building bricks of local and national politics. It's like they're kicking the can and going, sod it, it's so bad, it can't get any worse, so we'll take a punt.
- [08:21]
B
I think that's partially true. I think also that we're not just Talking about the 3 million people who voted in the Brexit referendum for the first time in their lives. I think they have come out, some of them have come out to vote today. But I think what we're having to contend with here is a much wider sense of disengagement, a sense of disappoint, a sense of lack of trust that is seen as a sort of plague on all of the establishment parties. I'm going to include the Liberal Democrats in this to an extent, because, yes, they have made 69. As we're sitting now, they've made 69 gains, so that figure will go up a bit. But they were expecting maybe 300 or so gains today and they're not getting them. And you look at their performance across the country and yes, they've. They've gained control of Stockport and Portsmouth councils, which they're making great hay out of, as you would expect, but there's been no great advance for them. And if you look at what's happened to them in Wales, they're probably not going to get a single seat in the Welsh Parliament. Now, for a national party, that. That is quite something. And they're on 2. Hang on, hang on. They're on 2% of the vote in Wales. In Shetland, they've lost to the SNP on not. Not the list on the constituency side for the first time since the Scottish Parliament was restart 1999.
- [09:43]
A
My brother's win or loss hasn't been declared yet. I have to quickly announce he was never going to win the candidacy ticket. He's done okay. He beat the SNP in reform on the candidate ticket, but he was never going to win that. That was taken by the Conservatives in southern Scotland, but he's first on the list for the Liberal Democrats. But as you've rightly pointed out, they actually have underperformed where you would expect the Liberal Democrats to do against an incumbent government midterm. So it's very dicey, but I'm really holding out for him, because he has worked so very hard. And it's really reminded me, watching Duncan, especially in a big geographical area where there's huge amounts of driving and time involved and marriage destroying weekends away, just how much every potential candidate puts into trying to win a seat.
- [10:31]
B
Absolutely. Well, they're on four seats at the moment, but. So that will probably go up, but I think they want to get 10. Not sure they're going to get that. The Tories are only on 4 as well. The SMP are on 51. And, I mean, that's quite good in many ways, because people were speculating this morning that they might be in the 40s, but it's not clear how they will be able to actually get a majority, because they're clearly not going to get a majority now.
- [10:57]
A
No, but the way in which the PR system was structured in Scotland, it was never intended that there'd be an outright majority. That was a quirk of the SNP's extraordinary landslides.
- [11:10]
B
But they were thinking that they might this time.
- [11:12]
A
Yeah, in some ways, I think they have to get over 65 seats in Scotland to get the outright majority. But the way in which Holyrood's designed even the sort of nature of its horseshoe layout was always trying to inspire this more convivial politics based on coalition. So I think if, you know, John Sweeney isn't a polarising character, he's dull as goddamn ditchwater, let's be honest about it. And actually, I think he would work effectively alongside Liberal Democrats or Greens or whoever would be required to shore up his vote. How's Reform doing in Scot at the moment?
- [11:46]
B
They are on. Well, they haven't won any seat, any of the constituency seats, but I don't. I'm not sure they would have been expected to. I haven't got the voting share here, but, I mean, the question is, do they beat Labour into second place? Now, Anasawa has already already conceded that he's. He's not going to be first minister. Well, what. What a surprise. So I think that's going to be interesting to watch. I mean, in Wales. Let me just get the Wales figures up. At the moment, Plyde have 30, Reform have 22, Labour seven, Tories five, Greens two, and the Lib Dems none. So Reform doing really, really well in Wales. That's why I said at the beginning of this whole campaign, I thought Wales would be the most interesting result. And I think from what we've seen here, it will be.
- [12:37]
A
And of course, the Welsh leader, the incumbent leader losing her seat and it does.
- [12:42]
B
And she's resigned as leader.
- [12:44]
A
Yeah. Well, a small wonder. I mean, she's left with. With a sort of logistical pickle. If she hadn't.
- [12:51]
B
Well, she's left with a peerage.
- [12:54]
A
I do think that that kind of the sloppy seconds in the second House is an issue that does need to be looked at. And again, it's another nettle that it feels like labor haven't fully grasped, even if we have just said hello to the last vestiges of the hereditary peers. But I do think her losing her seat as leader may be a harbinger of things to come in the general election, when we know that several of our cabinet ministers in the Labour government are on knife edges in their own constituencies.
- [13:22]
B
Yes, they are. But I mean, it is difficult to project this forward to the next election, given that it's probably either two or three years away. What do you make of the. Of what the different Labour ministers have been saying on the media today? Because they've all clearly been given a script, because they're all saying exactly the same thing. But I think it's very weird because they're saying the exact same thing that they said this time last year and it hasn't worked for them then. So why should we now be convinced that just by saying, well, the electorate want us to deliver faster and all the rest of it, it doesn't really cut it, does it?
- [14:04]
A
Two things have struck me. You're right, it feels like they're reading off a post it note and they've all been given the same directive. But I was more struck, if I'm honest, by this word hate that I kept on hearing, not from Cabinet ministers, but from Labour MPs and from Reform. Double down, doubling down on their success, saying, people say they hate Keir Starmer. To hate someone is an incredibly strong word. For me to hate somebody, I mean, you'd really have to do me down or be proven to be dishonest.
- [14:40]
B
I think you're being a little bit sort of touching your pearls there, because I'm not. But seriously, in the 1980s, everybody on the left said they hated Margaret Thatcher. This is not. This is not a new phenomenon.
- [14:54]
A
But it's really interesting because he's at best a sort of pretty watery character, a managerial style automaton. I agree. Not somebody who necessarily inspires. But he's not an ideologue like Thatcher was. He's not someone that would necessarily trigger you in that way. So I'm really fascinated that so many people feel such a deep loathing to.
- [15:16]
B
I Wonder whether they're using the word in the right way really. Because I mean, I've never hated Keir Starmer. I've become to slightly loathe him because I think that his, his tenured reaction to criticism, his inability to appeal to anybody, it is intensely irritating. But I mean I, I don't hate him. I don't really hate, I can't think of any politicians that I actually would say I hated. But people do have visceral reactions to somebody that they clearly blame for a lot of their ills.
- [15:53]
A
What's interesting here and just looking at trying to get our heads around why this very stable electoral system that we've had for decades, for over a century has imploded in this pluralistic way. And when you think of what's really changed, the main change, other than the economics taking us on a downward trajectory, is the fourth estate, the way in which we can all immediately just get on there and publish our thoughts. Instant gratification. And I think that we expect the same now from our politics. Once we've, you know, expressed our ire, you know, had our say, we then expect immediate change. And just in my own tiny way, guddling around trying to make this exam change in, in the educational system, everything in government moves at a glacial pace. And I actually think it doesn't matter who's in power, actually we're out of with the expectations of a trigger happy generation.
- [16:57]
B
That is true because if you think about it, when I worked in Parliament in the 1980s, if a constituent wrote a letter to the MP I was working for, if they got a reply within a week, they were ecstatic. Whereas now if you, I mean, and you're a very good example of this, if you send an email to an MP, you're wondering why you haven't had a reply. 30 seconds later I exaggerate to make a point. But that is the society that we live in and government hasn't adapted to that. And unfortunately, I mean, we have got a class of politicians now in government that actually don't really know how to make government work. They don't know how to pull the levers of the civil service. And sometimes the civil service take advantage of that, I have to say. So I don't think it's necessarily all the fault of the politicians. But that isn't going to change. And that is Keir Starmer's challenge to really think, well, okay, well people. He keeps saying, well, I know people want change. Well, okay, well how are you going to deliver that change? In a way that you haven't done in the first two years. And he, I mean, he's mouthing all the right words in a sense, as are they all, but it's totally unconvincing. I mean, you got the ridiculous spectacle a half an hour ago of the former Transport Secretary, Louise Haig, basically saying that, oh, it's all very serious and she thinks that Keir Starmer should go, but not until after next year's local elections. I mean, if he doesn't get it right next year, then he's got to go. Now that is fatuous. If you think he hasn't got it in him, what's the point of delaying it for another year?
- [18:27]
A
I think my broader question is we might get an Andy Burnham. I'm sure somebody will give up their seat in Manchester for a peerage and make way for Andy. But actually the structures of government, and so for example, the great promise is we're going to build 1.5 million houses. But actually then those aspirations hit the reality, which is planning permission, even if you're going to take a bulldozer to the gray areas and a bit of the green areas. And lo and behold, the Labour Party discovered they can't deliver 1.5 million houses that the electorate are waiting for and have been promised.
- [18:57]
B
No, they're still pretending that they can, but you and I both know that they can't.
- [19:01]
A
They can't and we know that on every single front. I bet you know, the Education Minister wasn't aware of the power that other parts, like exam boards hold other power. You know, they come into government, they haven't been into government for a long time. They were unaware of how slow everything is in a changed landscape. When we want everything on a plate immediately and when we see the likes of Trump overnight just go to war, there's that feeling of like, oh, if he can do it, why can't we solve a simple thing like a pothole which actually involves.
- [19:30]
B
And you see, this is where Farage, I think, I wonder how much he realizes how the system will be, will be totally against him if he does become Prime Minister. And Andrew Ma was on the media this morning predicting that Nigelf Raj will now be the next Prime Minister. I don't go that far, I have to say. I think there's a lot of water to flow under a bridge before that happen. But let's say he experiences the same as Keir Starmer where he comes in with lots of eye catching policies which the electorate buy into for good or ill. And then on day one, he Says to the civil servants, right, I want this done and I want it done within the next two months. And they say, oh no, it's impossible. Prime Minister. Well how is he going to drive that through? Because then you get, we've talked about this before. Then you get to the situation where the voters think, okay, well the Conservatives failed, Labour failed. Well, now Farage is failing. Well, what do we do then? That's when we're in really dangerous territory.
- [20:26]
A
Tessa100 I think there are several issues I don't agree with. Andrew Ma the Reform Party won 32% of the vote in the last set of local elections. In this one, before we recorded this pod, they were sitting at 27% of the vote. There's some talk the New York Times was hopefully suggesting that perhaps reform have peaked. Even if they do have this very
- [20:49]
B
heady said that today. Because I think the one thing that these elections show is that those of us who said last year that reform had peaked, I mean, were wrong, completely wrong.
- [21:01]
A
Percentage of their vote has gone down.
- [21:03]
B
Ian well, let's see when all the votes are counted because I suspect that's not going to be the case.
- [21:08]
A
I also think you make a valid point about countries in the west where you have this anemic, non existent economic growth, a scary external landscape becoming increasingly ungovernable, the kind of culture of blame. And again, we no longer have the same national narrative to hold us together. To take a spurious example, earlier this week I was with Alice Beer. She stood up and explained how when she was on that's Life with Esther anson, they got 25 million viewers every week. There was an idea of belonging to something bigger than yourself within your immediate environment and beyond in a British, kind of contained British sense of nationhood that no longer exists. A lot of us actually are inspired and you see that in the Greens pronouncements. You know, they're going to solve Gaza and they're going to stand up for Palestinians or reform. They're out there in the English Channel stopping the boats. Actually, these are the pan national issues for on the canvas of a local campaign. It is, it's, we've become, I think, ungovernable partly of the, because of the, the landscape in which we have our conversations which are no longer national. They're kind of weird narrow silos that we might be sharing with people in Louisiana, let alone in Lincolnshire.
- [22:34]
B
Well, I don't know about that, but I, I think, I think that you are falling into the same trap as math. Matt Stadlin, my former colleague on lbc, he tweeted this morning, bookmark this post. Political hacks and commentators desperately trying to over interpret these protest midterm elections. Highly unlikely that Nigel Farage becomes Prime Minister in three years time. And I quote, tweeted him and I said, the complacency of the left is always a joy to behold. If you think these results are just the usual midterm blues, you need to give your head a wobble. It's the school of thought which predicted neither Brexit nor Trump would happen. And it's the kind of thing that everyone assumed that Boris Johnson, everyone on the left assumed that Boris Johnson could never become Mayor of London, that people wouldn't vote for him. They assumed that George Bush wouldn't become, George W. Bush wouldn't become President of the United States because they see it from their own little metropolitan silos and they don't actually talk to real people.
- [23:36]
A
Can I say that I 100% predicted Brexit? 1 of my lifelong.
- [23:40]
B
I know you did.
- [23:42]
A
Right. But the second point I was making is I think we are going to feel perennially disappointed. You've hit the nail on the head. Whether Farage governs or not, and God, I hope he doesn't, I don't think he'll be any better equipped to deliver. We know Tony Blair famously said of that Brexit, either it was painful or pointless. The idea that he's done particularly well in leave areas suggests they want a fuller, deeper, harder Brexit. But we know actually that would rain on more economic pain and that would leave and hit the poorest areas, often who voted leave.
- [24:15]
B
But you see, just by the fact that you're saying this about Brexit, no one's talking about this, only people like you.
- [24:21]
A
Sorry twice. No, that's not, not True. On Radio 4 and on Radio 5 today, there have been pollsters saying, what's really interesting is that 10 years on we are seeing people actually the way in which they voted and they look for their solution, first of all in Brexit. And they didn't get it there, but they're doubling down and they're still sticking with Nig Farage and presumably what's going to be his version of something, not necessarily against a European narrative, but against the migrant, against a more multinational, you know, pan global.
- [24:53]
B
But you have, you have no desire to understand why. Think like people, think like that. You just automatically condemn it, don't condemn it.
- [25:00]
A
But I don't think it will bring them the economic succor that, that they need and want because we're all poorer than we used to be. And I think therein lies the problem. It's because we're on this having, you know, every decade progressed as a nation since the late 1800s, every year, even when we were losing our empire, getting a little bit richer with a couple of wartime blitz. Actually it's really hard to manage the idea of a 20 year wage stagnation slash decline. And the result of that is it pushes us all into really weird spaces. A tendency exacerbated by social media.
- [25:40]
B
And we have a government at the moment is pushing people further that way because of the amount of extra taxes they're putting on ordinary working people. And that is part of the problem. And people are now and I see this on my social media, it's not algorithms that are driving. Well, maybe it is partly, but I see this all the time, that people who have become effectively radicalized in politics over the past few years, not, not just since labor came into power, they have done so because they can see that there has to be an alternative. They may not know what that alternative is, but they see current day politicians making their lives more difficult and making their, their, their, their bills more expensive. Now it is much more complex than that. I totally understand that, but that's at
- [26:23]
A
the root of it arguably, and I agree hugely clumsy national insurance on employers, etc. There was a lot of clay footed behavior at the beginning of this Labour administration, I'm sure some of which they regret, but they can't do any more U turns. HelpGov. But one of the reasons for that was this economic stagnation. So there was much less in the pot than for example when Tony Blair came to power in 1997. And the other thing that's interesting, Ian, is the extraordinary success of reform. Whether we agree if they've peaked or not is a different question. And if you look at what they pull on to inspire their voters when they're not focusing on grievances, potholes or boats, they are very much tracking back to traditional ideas of Little England, the flag, the church.
- [27:16]
B
No, you see, again, you are just going through these stereotypes that you would like to think that they all sort of promote. I don't see that they, they promote. I mean we've had this discussion a couple of weeks ago. I don't think they're particularly religious and promote faith. I, I can't. Give me an example of where they've done that. I, I don't, I don't see them all as Little Englanders at all. If they were Little Englanders. Why are they doing so well in Scotland and Wales?
- [27:42]
A
Well, let's see how well they do in Scotland. But, but, but you, you can be traditional. I'm not saying it's necessarily a bad thing, by the way, to hold on to tradition and to revere it, and it's one of the reasons why they're all families is timelessly and sometimes inexplicably successful and endures. But what's interesting to me is it's a symptom of, I think, us feeling so insecure about the future, whether it's the existential crisis of global warming or of, or of international wars before it felt good. Looking forward, you know, the peacetime dividend building for Britain in the wake of World War II into the 60s. Throw your knickers to the wind and actually, it feels scary. All of my daughter's generation are terrified. They're terrified of the debt they're going to have, they're terrified they're not going to get jobs. They're genuinely scared. And older generations likewise feel insecure about social care, about their health, about who's going to look after them and about the children they've brought into this.
- [28:38]
B
I mean, I don't support them and I'm not going to vote for them, but that's where reform hit home, because they can say, well, look, we aren't part of this. Even though, of course, a lot of their senior figures are, were part of it. In the Conservative government, they come along and present themselves as the shiny new kid on the block with seemingly quite easy solutions in some policy areas and people will latch onto that. Well, it's the task of the other parties to call them out on it and say, look, they're wrong because of this way and we've got solutions here. The trouble is that with very few exceptions, none of the other parties have got viable solutions which the electorate can buy into. I mean, the Greens, I mean, makes me laugh at how many people are supporting, supporting them with their simplistic populist solutions. But the Conservatives and Labour need to get their act together pretty damn quick or they are going to go the way of the old Liberal Party.
- [29:32]
A
Just finally, I feel a great sadness today because. And maybe this is about my age and stage. Well, maybe it's just because I've had much more interaction with local politicians and constituency politics because of the campaign I've been doing recently. But actually, on an individual level, I've been surprised at the quality of the Conservative and Labour politicians who I've engaged with, who've been helping me get this GCSE and I think there is so little incentive for politicians to work hard and deliver for the individual needs of their constituents.
- [30:06]
B
Re election is a pretty powerful incentive.
- [30:09]
A
It is a powerful incentive, Ian, I agree with you. But if you just think helping out a few individuals in your constituency don't even necessarily have a vote, that idea of, of, I, I don't know, just decency and accountable governance feels it's been hijacked by almost fantasy narratives around boats.
- [30:31]
B
You just said you've been impressed by the politicians that you've dealt with because they've shown an interest in, in your issue. Well, that could be multiplied over sort of many, many dozens of them. Most of them do react like that if they're interested in something thing that an MP can't take up every cause that people throw at them. But I still, I still cling on to this maybe old fashioned view that most MPs are in it for public
- [30:56]
A
service and yet look at everybody clutching their pearls. Something you accused me of earlier and saying God damn it, we hate this government. We hate the conventional politics, whether it's labor or conservative, you know, for the birds. We're going to go to these more extreme alternatives. And that makes me sad.
- [31:13]
B
I hate zoom time limits and we've reached ours so we'd better go before we cut off in our prime. Thank you for doing this very at short notice podcast. Hopefully people have enjoyed it and we'll be back as normal on Tuesday. Goodbye.
- [31:25]
A
Bye.
- [31:28]
B
This has been a global player original
- [31:31]
A
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