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- [00:03]
A
This is a global player original podcast. The rise in the minimum wage when. Anyway, we're seeing a tailing off of employing those coming into the job market and also that rise in national insurance. Employer national insurance. And those two, I think, have been hammer blows for our youngest and most vulnerable generation.
- [00:21]
B
Couldn't agree with you more.
- [00:23]
A
Oh, what do we do if we both agree.
- [00:29]
B
Now? Tassa, you're still in Romania in what I think is quite an echoey room, but I'm sure it's going to be fine. But I have got an invitation for you.
- [00:38]
A
Oh, I hope it's somewhere exciting.
- [00:40]
B
Well, you know, you've. As you said in the last podcast, you met John for the first time and you said, can I come to dinner? Well, I have persuaded John that we should have a barbecue to which Corey and his fiance will be invited and a few other people, including Chris and his girlfriend and of course, yourself.
- [01:02]
A
Unbelievable. Has John taken a hit to the head? Is it the hot weather in Tunbridge?
- [01:06]
B
Well, I did wonder because he was surprisingly compliant because normally he doesn't like anybody coming around because it means we have to tidy the house up.
- [01:14]
A
Well, of course, you're in Kent. Maybe he just wants us to bring a water bath and lots of water with us so that you can wash.
- [01:21]
B
It's been a little bit. Well, no, we've always had water people around us that don't. I don't know how we've escaped all the water shortages, but put Saturday 27th June in your dining. And now you're going to tell me that you're already busy that day, aren't you?
- [01:36]
A
No, it's just before I go cruising and know, Ian, not your sort of cruising.
- [01:42]
B
And what do you mean by that, Tessa?
- [01:43]
A
It doesn't matter. But you like smart, so let's just lightly flip over it. As you've observed, I'm in someone else's office. I literally have technically unraveled in the last month and I had a very old computer, but the sound worked when I plugged headphones in. But suddenly even the headphones didn't work. It's two hours ahead here, so somebody's staying in their office, lending me their computer and their office space so that I can talk to Ian Dale about the important subjects of the day. I did some research. We're going to come on to how the war of endurance mean those that look like they should lose end up winning modern wars. But before we focus on that, Ian, a couple of what you would term fluff, what I would call pressing Subjects that we need to address yesterday. My older daughter, who I'm no longer allowed to name. In fact, I shouldn't really call her my daughter anymore because as she points out, we with suitable perspicacity, everybody knows who I am. So let's call her my niece. Okay? My niece.
- [02:40]
B
You mean Mara?
- [02:41]
A
My niece. You can just piss right off there, okay? Oh, I know. Let's just remove the personal out of this podcast entirely. I know someone who went to an open day at a big university yesterday to look into doing linguistics and or modern languages. And we know someone who did a linguistics degree, don't we, Ian?
- [03:05]
B
We do, and he might want to. I'm not sure he's actually there anymore, otherwise he could fade up his microphone. Are you there, Corey? Oh, no, he is there. Fade up your microphone because we're talking about you and we want your contribution to this discussion on the important subject of linguistics. He's pressing buttons now, so I don't know whether I don't know whether his microphone has reached full dander yet or not.
- [03:28]
A
Being a linguistic.
- [03:28]
B
Hello.
- [03:30]
A
We don't expect you to be good at tech.
- [03:32]
B
How dare you.
- [03:34]
C
How dare you.
- [03:35]
B
So, go on, what do you want to berate him over then?
- [03:39]
A
I think we're allowed to say, and I have often referred to the fact, and I'm something of an intellectual snob. So when I discovered that Corey had a first class degree from Cambridge in linguistics, I've always kind of held him with. With a degree of reverence, slash respect. You know that idea that in there somewhere is a great brain. All right,
- [04:02]
C
continue.
- [04:04]
A
So said anonymous person goes to open day at university to find out more about doing linguistics. And she says, well, they gave us an example. They gave us an example of a sentence. And I can't remember exactly how the sentence went, but I do remember the critical part of the sentence and I'm going to repeat it to you all now. Up in the north of England, where green voters are not particularly thick on the ground, there was a lack of support for the candidate. Now, Ian, as someone who didn't do linguistics, I did. Can you tell me what is wrong with that sentence?
- [04:41]
B
I did do linguistics. I did linguistics. That was a third of my degree, apart from the fact it was German linguistics. So I'm not sure I can help you with what. Say that sentence again.
- [04:51]
A
Up in the north of England, where green voters are not particularly thick on the ground, there was a lack of support for the candidate linguistically. Why is that sentence problematic?
- [05:02]
B
It's not problematic at all.
- [05:04]
A
Corey, first class.
- [05:05]
C
Up in the north of England, where support for the Greens was thin on the ground.
- [05:09]
A
No, I didn't say that, though, did I?
- [05:11]
C
Oh, what did you say?
- [05:12]
A
Dear me. Ladies and gentlemen, repeating it was going well up in the north of England, where support for the Greens was not particularly thick on the ground. The candidate didn't get many votes.
- [05:27]
B
There's nothing wrong with that.
- [05:28]
C
I think that's perfectly grammatical.
- [05:30]
B
Thank you, Corey.
- [05:31]
A
No, the. Apparently, and this is what befuddled said relation of mine, they then spent half an hour addressing the reason why the use of the word thick on two metrics made the sentence problematic. So, on the one hand, it's thin on the ground, and on the other hand the word thickness, thick also throws a bit of a wobbly because you get distracted by the idea, are Green voters thick? So there's a misleading element in the sentence.
- [06:00]
B
So are they actually actively trying to discourage people from doing a linguistics course at Oxford University?
- [06:06]
A
She said to me, the thing is, she said, if you do linguistics, you don't even come away with a modern language. And it's not like you're learning a pointless art like history. At least I could come away knowing about Henry viii, but as it is, I discovered the word thick in a sentence is problematic when I knew that anyway, because I'm not thick. So there. Cory, over to you.
- [06:25]
C
Well, I think that that's a very prescriptive way of judging language. I think that language can evolve and you can use it creatively however you like, and therefore Oxford is wrong. But of course, they always are.
- [06:37]
A
Oh, oh, I forgot. If only she'd been at Cambridge doing an open day, then it would have been totally different.
- [06:43]
B
But you see, that's what you're in store for if you do a degree in linguistics. That's all it is. A bit like philosophy, where I remember we did one course, one term in philosophy and. And we were sitting there in a tutorial one day, waiting for the tutor to turn up, and after 15 minutes, he burst out of the cupboard that he'd been hiding in and he said to all of us, what did I mean by that? I'm thinking, you're a priest and it's pointless. So she's absolutely right. She's got her head screwed on.
- [07:19]
C
Hello. I've had time to think about this now and I just want to add this in because I don't want my degree to look pointless. Yes, there's syntactic ambiguity here, so you can read on the ground as attaching back to the Green voters Basically, you know, Green voters on the ground in the north. And then thick acts separately as an adjective meaning stupid. Or there's the intended reading, which is that thick on the ground is one adjectival phrase meaning plentiful. So there are two different readings, and it depends how the syntax works, what the meaning is. Thank you, and continue listening.
- [07:54]
B
I think he's talking bollocks.
- [07:57]
A
Please note how incredible the baton is moving from this linguistics conversation into the lead story, not just in Britain, but also here in Romania, the top conversation of the day, which is all about needs. Not in education, not in training. Now, over a million in Britain. I've already given you a clue. Guess the only country that has a higher number of NEETs proportionally than Britain in the EU.
- [08:24]
B
Now, let me think. Could it. Could it. I. I don't know. Could it possibly be Romania?
- [08:29]
A
Yes, it could.
- [08:33]
B
Well, I suppose it depends how you define it, doesn't it? Because I'm not sure that we are the only country that has a massive problem with this, apart from Romania.
- [08:41]
A
Sorry, I've got to intervene there, Ian. We proportionally, we are now we top the table, except for Romania.
- [08:47]
B
By how much do you know?
- [08:49]
A
I didn't break down all the statistics.
- [08:51]
B
If you know what to take, what the table is. Well, who's in third place? Who's in fourth place?
- [08:56]
A
I was listening two BBC reports and they said that Britain comes out on top. This has always been a sort of European malaise, but this is the first time that Britain has topped the table, with the exception of Romania. And then I was fully on board for this subject. I thought, oh, my God, I can't get away from needs.
- [09:13]
B
Are we at cross purposes here? Because I think if you. If we're just talking about youth unemployment. I think you may be right, but I'm. Or do you actually definitely mean all young people who aren't in education, training or employment?
- [09:26]
A
The latter.
- [09:27]
B
Right, the latter.
- [09:28]
A
It now caps over 1 million. Alan Milburn has given his diagnosis of the problem today, but bizarrely, given this has already taken half the Labor's administrative time in government almost just to come up with the diagnostics, he's not going to give his solutions until the back end of the year. Meanwhile, presumably, the NEETs continue to languish under their duvets.
- [09:51]
B
So what was the point of today that asked about faith? Isn't it?
- [09:57]
A
They were trying to work out why we have so many needs. What the problem is, and what's fascinating, and I think it does bleed into our linguistics conversation, is that children now are treated almost like exam racehorses. The pressure is on this extraordinary level of focus and I see it in my own house, actually, and our cohort, this extraordinary relentless drive to getting top grades and that forfeits balance, it forfeits work and life experience. And it also leaves a whole bunch of kids who aren't academic in the slow lane, I. E. Under their duvets. So not only do you get your academic children only equipped in one field, so they've got the head, but where are the heart and hands? If you're going to use the analogy that's being used today. But secondly, you also aren't upskilling those who would probably be better suited to a less academically structured school life.
- [10:53]
B
But that's partly because today's 18, 19, 20 year olds have had very little experience in the workplace. Saturday jobs, for example, have almost disappeared. I'm sure that there is shadowing that goes on where kids in six forms go to do like a day with a local employer. But I mean that, that can't actually substitute for part time jobs, can it?
- [11:17]
A
No, but again, and I find this fascinating because I've always been a workaholic, Mara would say to my detriment, where's it got you? More heat than light, La la la la. But, and to an extent she has a point, but I remember the one thing I wanted to do was get a Saturday job, aged 14. I remember dishwashing in the local hotel on a Saturday morning and my mom, who was sort of rather upper class in terms of her pretensions, coming to pick me up, saying this isn't really what I envisaged for my daughter. I think she thought I'd be swallowers in Amazons or in a sailing boat or a boarding school. And rather I was washing dishes in the local hotel for threepence an hour. But the freedom that accorded to be able to get the train, to go and spend money in razzle dazzle, to be my own person and to have
- [12:01]
B
the discipline of work. And I think that that's the thing. If you get to the age of 22, 23, 24 and you've never had a job, possibly through no fault of your own, but if you've never had a job, you don't understand what working actually involves and you start to dread it. It starts to be something that most of your friends and family, they've all got jobs, you haven't. And therefore that can lead people into a very sort of dark place in terms of their mental health. And I get that so I think something has gone wrong in our society over a considerable amount of time. It's not just in the last few years where we've, we bred a generation of children that seem to have the wrong priorities. Now you can't say that every child should have the same priority. It's not unusual for parents to want their children or their teachers want their children to have the best exam results that they could possibly get. But I think you are right in that the pressures on a modern teenager are vastly different from those that you or I experienced when we were that age. That the pressure to succeed, the pressure to be seen to succeed, the keeping up with the Joneses element I think is far more prevalent in today's society than it ever was before. And some kids fall at the first hurdle partly because they haven't got the. How can I put this? I was going to say the mental stability, but that's wrong. The mental resilience I think is the phrase I'm looking for. They haven't got the mental resilience and they haven't got the sort of bounce back ability that if at first you don't succeed, you try, try again. Well, I'm afraid we've got a generation of kids that if they fail at the first hurdle they don't often pick themselves up and dust themselves off and regard it as an opportunity rather than a threat to their whole future.
- [13:58]
A
I would say that you are sounding considerably less sympathetic, perhaps understandably than Alan Milburn who said there is a massive problem. But he doesn't park the blame at the generation in question.
- [14:11]
B
I'm, I'm trying not to part blame with anyone in particular. I think this is a societal issue which leads individuals to be in situations which they would ideally not be in. I'm really not trying to blame individuals for necessarily the circumstances that they find themselves in.
- [14:30]
A
I think there is a huge generational issue. I think there's such a wealth gap that that's disincentivizing. I think what's interesting is what previously governed me was a kind of base level capitalism. I just wanted some stuff. It seems to be that almost the phone is enough. Certainly we didn't have the distraction that was accorded to those today through social media and scrolling. You couldn't kill time in the way that you can today. That was the other thing that was fascinating about the report that actually what were these children doing? They often had a sort of period of work experience that wasn't successful and then they kind of flunk out. And what do they do in that dead time and they seem to be unable to answer that question. And I think there we have to look at the crack cocaine to that is the telephone. But of course, there was also the perfect storm. That was Covid.
- [15:17]
B
Well, just on the phone thing, one of the constant complaints you hear, and this has been going on since time immemorial, that teenagers will complain that they're bored. Well, a teenager nowadays shouldn't complain that they're bored because they have their phones. It's impossible to be bored if you have a smartphone. There are so many things that you can do on it. Now, it may be repetitive, it may be addictive, but it's not boring.
- [15:41]
A
Yeah, and you're right, we've taken boredom out of the equation. I can't remember either of my children ever saying to me, they're bored. Isn't that fascinating? Whereas my mother heard it so often from us, stuck in a cottage in the Highlands, that she used to say on a loop, boring people aboard.
- [15:57]
B
I want to meet your mother.
- [16:00]
A
Oh, guess which country came.
- [16:01]
B
So much would fall into place.
- [16:03]
A
Yeah, you can be pissed right off you're not going to get to meet it. Guess which country came at the top of the table, I. E. The fewest needs.
- [16:10]
B
Needs.
- [16:11]
A
So for them, that. No, but you're warm. Just to give you the statistic, in Britain, 1 in 818 to 24 year olds is a neat, not an education, training or employment. And in this particular country, 1 in 20.
- [16:26]
B
Well, it's got to be a Scandinavian one, sort of.
- [16:30]
A
Yeah.
- [16:31]
B
Wow.
- [16:33]
A
Holland. The Netherlands.
- [16:36]
B
Yeah.
- [16:36]
A
Interesting.
- [16:37]
B
They're too spaced out to sort of be a neat, aren't they?
- [16:41]
A
Well, in fact, the key difference was that the teenagers in question, when in education, had three to four times more exposure to paid work than those in Britain.
- [16:54]
B
Well, there you go. I rest my case. That's what we've got to do to try and restore. But I mean, it's not. Isn't it now illegal to work if you're under the age of 14?
- [17:05]
A
Oh. In terms of rules and regulations. Let's come to this after the break because I think it bleeds into the Tony Blair thesis, which we're going to unpack before we get onto war. But certainly the perfect storm set against employing young people has grown and it's bursting all over our heads at the moment. Sadly, not in rainfall count, but in many other ways.
- [17:26]
B
Right, we need to take a break. So we want to talk about Tony Blair, don't we? I know you don't really, but I do Because I think that there are too many people in this country that like to dismiss what Tony Blair says when they should actually listen to him. Because I think if you read what he said in his essay yesterday, there is so much sense in it, and yet if you are basically a Labour Party supporter, a member, you stick your hands in your ears and go la la la la la. Whereas we don't know what to do with ex Prime Ministers in this country, we don't like to hear them when they've got something important to say. And he has said a few important things in this essay. Do you not agree, Tessa Dunlop?
- [18:08]
A
My job is not to agree. You know, I woke up and heard that Tony Blair had written a 5,000 word essay and I thought, oh my God, my God, this is some kind of penalty. I knew that you'd expect me to have read it, so I tried desperately to find shortcuts to not having to read it. The thing that delighted me, the rabbit hole I went down, that delighted me the most, was the polling on which ex Prime Ministers, British people are most likely to listen to.
- [18:39]
B
Oh, I haven't seen this. Do tell.
- [18:41]
A
Right, guess the two at the top.
- [18:45]
B
I would say John Major is at the top.
- [18:48]
A
He's one of the ones at the top.
- [18:50]
B
There's one other, possibly Gordon Brown.
- [18:54]
A
Yes, both of them at the top. Yeah. And guess the two at the bottom.
- [18:58]
B
Liz Truss and Boris Johnson.
- [19:02]
A
No.
- [19:03]
B
Oh, really? Who's the other one then?
- [19:06]
A
Tony Blair.
- [19:08]
B
Well, isn't that interesting?
- [19:12]
A
I love that.
- [19:15]
B
But do you not think. I know. Look, if you think his decision to go to war in Iraq was the worst decision a British Prime Minister has ever made, and you can argue that's a perfectly legitimate point of view, but people let one single thing color their vision of 10 years. I suppose you could say, well, Richard Nixon was a good president without Watergate. That's probably the nearest analogy. Richard Nixon actually was listened to in America after he retired, particularly on foreign affairs, and still commanded a lot of respect among many people. But Tony Blair, particularly among people on the left, is just considered to be an anathema or a war criminal.
- [19:55]
A
The thing is, I think it is a lazy shorthand to sum up Tony Blair's failings in the Iraq war, because it was greater, I think, far greater than that. I think a lot of his decision making, in fact led to Brexit. And I know that you're a Brexiteer, but I think even you would agree it has been hugely distracting and very costly, certainly in times of money. And I would say almost definitely financially, therefore, and because of all the extra bureaucracy that's been overlaid. And the reason I cite that is his decision, for example, to allow unfettered access into the UK from the first wave of European migrants. Yes, that was a massive mistake. And I say that as somebody who's hugely pro European and massively pro freedom of movement, but there has to be balance. And he was just. Given that he was a Labour Prime Minister, he was so removed from actually the impact of decisions like that on the thinking of the man and woman on the ground that it really has had a very detrimental effect. And I think it's exacerbated this rise of populism. So I'm with the cohort that say, don't listen to Blair. And the other reason why I think people don't necessarily trust him. And it came across in an interview he did on the Today program regarding this godforsaken essay, which was him telling the presenter. I think it was Nick, whatever his name is, Robinson. Yeah. Telling him that he didn't really care which party implemented his vision of the radical center, but it needed to be implemented.
- [21:30]
B
Well, that I think is very interesting because if you read the whole essay and if you listen to the various interviews he's done, he did a brilliant one with John Sopel on the Newsagents podcast, which we played out a bit of last night. You come to the conclusion that virtually everything he wrote, obviously, with a few exceptions, could have been said by Kemi Badenoch.
- [21:50]
A
What were the exceptions, do you think?
- [21:53]
B
Well, the Brexit stuff, I suppose, would be the major one. But even on that, you see, I think he made some sense that he said, look, if we are to go back into the eu, I don't think it can be anytime soon. But what we need to do is, if we are going to apply to go back, is that we need to do it from a position of strength, and we're not in a position of strength at the moment. So basically, that was saying, well, fuck you, Wes, treating what you said last week.
- [22:19]
A
But to be fair to West Streeting, he gave European ideologues like me hope because he talked about returning in the long term. He didn't say we would be returning anytime soon. But he definitely envisages our closer relationship with our biggest geopolitical cohort, and trading cohort being an inevitability. And I think that's really baked into Tony Blair's thesis as well, which always was when he was campaigning vehemently for Remain, he always said there's only two Brexits. One is pointless and one is painful. the moment we've got the more painful version and Starmer's trying to drag us towards the pointless version. And I think ultimately quite how we find a strong road out in order to be an appealing catch for the EU is a conundrum. But where I think his thesis speaks to the neat problem is the rise in the minimum wage when anyway we're seeing a tailing off of employing those coming into the job market and also that rise in National Insurance employer National Insurance. And those two, I think have been hammer blows for our youngest and most vulnerable generation.
- [23:28]
B
Couldn't agree with you more.
- [23:30]
A
Oh, what do we do if we both agree? Move on to the history, probably move
- [23:33]
B
on to something else. But no, I think you're absolutely right. I mean we're recording this at what, 5, 5 o' clock in the afternoon on Thursday at 7 o'. Clock. Corey and I, we were talking earlier about, well, what do we do on our program tonight that is different to what everybody else has done? So we've agreed that, well, in fact it was his idea, we'll get people in the studio who are between the ages of 18 to 24. It's pointless me as a 63 year old mayor pontificating to the ute of today about needs because they're the ones that are experiencing the problems. I can come up with all the theories I like, but I think what you just said there, it's not a theory, it's a fact. The rise in the minimum wage which people say, oh, it's only £12.60 an hour. Yeah, okay, annualize that, it's 26,400, which you and I not that long ago would have thought was a pretty damn good wage. And if you're working as a first job in a bar, in a pub, in a restaurant, you're pricing yourself. Well, no, the government is pricing you out of a job. And also because of the national insurance rise. And that is the major problem for young people today, I think. Yes, it is to do with education to an extent and the opportunities. Yes, it is to do with apprenticeships. But in the end, if you can't find a job that at a reasonable rate, then inevitably you're going to be on your uppers.
- [25:01]
A
You are. And they've also of course removed some of the differentials between employing the young, I. E. Young people costing less proportionally. They're not as cheap as they were. So again, that's another disincentive to Embrace a lack of experience. Instead go for the trusted hand that's 25 years old and isn't actually necessarily going to cost you anymore. And there's a deep irony baked into that. But it is, I think, pitiful where we've ended up. And some of it's very predictable. And what concerns me a bit, and I wrote to this at the beginning of the week, is that we totally blame social media. Like, oh, my God, it's because they're all on smartphones. And I actually think that's a very lazy way of addressing contemporary malaise. I use the phone all the time. You use the phone all the time. The phone is the Nexus through which we now exist, whether we're mature adults or young adults. But if you don't have any kind of infrastructure out with the phone, then that's the problem. And I think that's incumbent upon our generations in to make sure that we. We drive at home the importance of other skill sets. I know that even within my own house, I'm interested that I'm the one pushing Mara to get holiday job because it makes her an exception among her cohort who mainly don't have holiday jobs, as opposed to me bullying my mother to let me work when I 14.
- [26:25]
B
And you're absolutely right to do that. And if you want me to help in bullying her, I'll. I'll happily do so.
- [26:31]
A
To be honest, I'm rather hurt that you and Corey haven't invited her to be one of your neets tonight.
- [26:37]
B
Well, there's probably possibly still an opportunity. Do you think she'd do it? Tessa is offering Mara as a panel. No. I know.
- [26:43]
A
God almighty. See the trouble Ian gets me into, ladies and gentlemen, I was not offering her. This is going to be another domestic relationship that no longer exists.
- [26:54]
B
Okay, Have. Have we done enough on Tony Blair?
- [26:56]
A
I think we can tell Tony Blair to off, which is all.
- [27:01]
B
We should treat former prime ministers with respect, including that one.
- [27:06]
A
What about trust the letters?
- [27:08]
B
That's what I meant by that one. You still should have a certain respect to anybody who's held the office of Prime Minister. I know it's difficult in some circumstances, but there we go.
- [27:19]
A
Right, onwards to war.
- [27:22]
B
I need my laptop, but you can do it while we're doing the next bit. That's fine. Right, do you want to play the music? Plead that music, white guy. Now you want to talk about war? War? What's it all for?
- [27:37]
A
I do think there's some really interesting precedents. It's the conversation all the time. People ask Me, what's your opinion on Israel? What's your opinion on Donald Trump? What's your opinion on the Middle East? East. And I realize this has become, it's sort of across Europe, the question of Trump, where we sit with the alliance with Israel, where we sit in terms of the Iran war, of course, here they sit much nearer Ukraine and what's going on there. And also, of course, this kind of, this constantly changing narrative, the ceasefire is on, it's off both sides accusing each other of talking nonsense, spreading lies. And then of course, there was a, there was really a break in, in the ceasefire, wasn't there? Iran targeting American bases in Kuwait. I think both times they weren't successful, they were intercepted. And likewise America targeting a couple of key strategic military ports in Iran. And it made me think, ultimately, where's victory going to sit in? Because today is victory about how much has been destroyed. That is America's hand, or is it about what has survived Iran's hand?
- [28:50]
B
Well, I do think in this one in particular, it is quite difficult to work out who you could say has won. It clearly hasn't ended yet. So as we sit here today, I think you'd have to say that there isn't a clear winner in this. Yes, America has destroyed a lot of things. I mean, they said they destroyed the entire Iranian navy and yet we hear that the, there's an Iranian ship laying mine still. So it's difficult to tell exactly truth from untruth, isn't it?
- [29:22]
A
I tell you what we've learned in terms of Iranian strengths. One, that they can and do manipulate the price of hydrocarbons. There was always the threat they'd be able to do that and they proved they can. Two, they've shown their Gulf neighbors the price of hosting American military bases, hence that attack on Kuwait in the last 24, 48 hours. Three, they've demonstrated they can hit Israel overwhelming sometimes Israel's world famous military defenses. Four, they still hold on to their wild card, that is the Houthi in Yemen threatening the Red Sea. And five, they have major pieces on a regional chessboard, including the Iraqi militia who's targeted Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Hezbollah. Please note that in the last 24 hours, Israel has asked 18 8th of people living. No, sorry, has asked Lebanese people in 1/8 of Lebanese territory to move. And I think if you look down that list, that comprehensive list, you can conclude that Iran ain't going anywhere. And if war is about survival, they're winning this war.
- [30:35]
B
Ian, I think that you, I think you're being too precipitous. You know what I mean? I think you're calling this too early. Because if the whole thing was to end now, I don't think it would be possible for America to claim victory. But I certainly don't think it's possible for Iran to claim any sort of victory, really. It's quite clear that the regime has been substantially weakened in all sorts of different ways. We haven't seen a general uprising from the people, which I certainly was hoping to have seen by now, but I certainly wouldn't rule that out happening in the future. You've had more or less the entire ruling party of the regime eliminated. But that was right at the beginning. And it seems to me that America, whatever its aims were in this, they haven't followed through on reaching whatever their aims were, and they have totally lost the court of public opinion throughout the world. So from that point of view, it's been humiliating for them. They've never been able to articulate what the end goal is. I mean, if it is ending Iran's nuclear capability and if the peace deal that is reached, concluded in the end, does do that, well, then they can claim some sort of victory. You can say it might be a Pyrrhic victory, but if Iran guarantees that it's never going to develop any sort of nuclear capability in the future, you would have to say, well, Trump can claim that as at least a partial victory.
- [32:08]
A
I promise you that Iran will not cede its uranium. I don't believe reserves. I'm also going to point to the idea of, in an asymmetrical war, how ultimately those who are on paper defeated are able to claim victory. If we look into history, 1956, Egypt's NASA, he was thumped by the combination of French, Israeli and British forces. But he could claim he stood up to the west and ultimately that's what he did. He endured and he was seen regionally at least as a victor. Then you can look to 1991. Saddam Hussein was comprehensively defeated by the coalition in the Gulf War. But likewise, he could claim, and he did, that he'd stood up to the West. Please note, Saddam Hussein endured, but George H. Bush was not re elected. And I think likewise, Khamenei will endure. And let's see how Trump does in the midterms. And let's see if Benjamin Netanyahu is re elected.
- [33:12]
B
This is, well, just on that. I think Trump will do disastrously in the midterms. I used to think that when Netanyahu would not be re elected, but I'M less sure of that as, as time goes on, I have to say, should we move on to some questions?
- [33:28]
A
You see, I did my homework there, didn't I? You did. Just finally, because people are missing the history. The Sassian history of ancient Rome tells us that the great Roman Empire was forced to make peace with inferior Persian foes consistently. Because it's not always about the biggest belligerent winning. It's not. And also what's interesting about today's wars is just how quickly it's changed. And by the way, you can also flip that if you're feeling depressed about the idea of Iran having the upper hand and say, but we also see in this geopolitical sphere, where I am in the east of Europe, Ukraine currently has the upper hand, where Russia much, much bigger in terms of quantitatively somebody who on paper should be winning and right now is not winning. And Ukraine managing to take the fight to the invading enemy is making 300 drones a day. And these aren't just short range ones, they're ones with long range capacity that are really hitting Russia where it hurts.
- [34:36]
B
Well, I hope you're right because Ukraine has completely fallen off the news agenda, which I feel slightly guilty about. So hopefully we'll do something about it soon. Right, we'll move on to questions in just a few moments. Right, I've got a question from William in Mid Devon who says I was thoroughly impressed and you could say blown away this week by the intervention of former Prime Minister Sir Tony Blair. For full context, I'm a conservative voter, so I very much look at the Labour shambles from a non factional outside position. However, I have to say after hearing Blair's take on the current position of the country and ideas for government, it's hard to believe this is a man who's been out of mainstream politics for one year short of two decades. Personally, I do not agree with everything Blair said, but I was nodding along and thinking at least he has a grip on the issues facing this country and some ideas. A far cry from the responses from within Labor. He might as well have butted his head against a brick wall. So I wanted to ask you both, why is Labour making the old mistake of moving further left wing? And I'd say this government is certainly soft left already when there is no political mandate or evidence of a left wing shift of the electorate. Burnham and others need to remember Labour got in thanks to the mistakes of Johnson and Truss administrations, not because of the country suddenly thinking we need need to move to the left.
- [36:04]
A
I don't think that the Labour government has particularly moved to the left. That makes it sound too deliberate, I think. I mean, in some ways Tony Blair had a point. The lack of Starmerism means it's quite hard to see where the particular governance fudge we're currently being subjected to leads, but they shuffle to the right at the same time as they shuffle to the left. I would say Shibama Mahmood is actually, for a Labour Home Secretary, fairly right wing in terms of her quite punitive and controversial decisions to curb migration and to tackle the small boats. But I suppose if you're talking about it economically and their failure to bring down as quickly as they'd have liked the welfare bill, rescinding on pip, rescinding on heating allowance for the elderly, that I think smacked of a lack of experience. That Keir Starmer was a bit what they'd say in Scotland, firm. He didn't understand the power he had in those first few months. And I think he made a grave mistake. You turning.
- [37:07]
B
I think Labour is in danger of moving left. I think Andy Burnham is basically, he will move anywhere that he thinks his electorate want him to move to win. Now, to an extent, all elections are about that, where people come up with ideas or policies that they think are going to the electorate are going to approve of. And I mean, Tony Blair's point on that I thought was very well put, where he said it's the job of government to say to the elector, right, this is where we want to go and this is how we're going to take you with us. And that's something that Starmer has absolutely failed to do. Now, if both Streeting and Burnham and anybody else who joins the party adopt that attitude, well, great. But I don't see so far. And okay, there isn't a contest at the moment, but I don't see so far any semblance of any radical new ideas from them which they are going to put not just to the Labour Party members but also to the country. And I think if they're not going to do that, then don't bother. We might as well just muddle along as we are.
- [38:12]
A
I don't want to carry on muddling along. I'm sorry, I'm so over muddling along. I want clear governance. There's a muddle at this side of Europe too. I went in to see the Ministry of Education yesterday and they said, oh, sorry, we've just got a temporary minister at the moment. We can't really make any decisions. Decisions. You do think what is the point in having governments that are so stymied by a combination. Britain has a different set of problems than Romania, but there is this feeling of treading water and it's really dangerous in the current climate to tread water. If you look at the successful leaders of democracies and I'm going to pin up Carney, maybe Albanese of Australia being two examples, you don't tread water. Can I read you a question? Two questions, actually. In both attacking you, you gleefully. I read them. This is from Dino. Dear Dr. Tessa, thanks once again for all you do. I feel like I disagree with Ian 90 of the time. So do I, Dino.
- [39:04]
B
I'm sure it's Dino.
- [39:06]
A
Oh, whatever. He still loves me because he keeps texting, thankfully. Blah, blah, blah. In regards to the price of food in Europe. Omg. I've just spent two weeks on holiday. One in Keswick, up in the Lake District. Secondly in Milan. In Keswick, the average meal for three worked in out. Well, whatever it is, the average meal for the three worked out at roughly 90 quid. In Milan, the average worked out at 60. Granted, Ian did not use Italy as an example, but sometimes the facts don't need to be facts to be true. As ian would say. P.S. the Italians were complaining a lot about price increases. Hold that thought because William has also got a message and he takes us straight to Spain. Good evening, Ian and Tessa currently in Build Back Spain. I can confirm Ian is incorrect about supermarket prices. Spanish tomatoes, raspberries and every other food is cheaper than the uk, including UK gin, which is seven pounds cheaper. Tanqueray. This is from a supermarket in the city center of Bilbao. Thank you for all you do, Jacob.
- [40:10]
B
Well, everybody's going to have different experiences. All I can say is. No, seriously. I mean, I can't remember what the article I read that told me that the Spaniards were paying more for tomatoes for their own tomatoes than we were. But I mean, I'm not. I haven't made this up.
- [40:27]
A
Was it the Daily Mail by any chance?
- [40:29]
B
No. Well, it could have been, I suppose.
- [40:31]
A
I'm actually gonna ban the Daily Mail from your telephone. I've decided I'm going to.
- [40:37]
B
I don't read the Daily Mail on my telephone. Unfortunately, we have it delivered to our house every morning because John wants it.
- [40:45]
A
Oh my God. I'm not sure I do want to come for a barbecue. Does he really subscribe to the Daily Mail?
- [40:50]
B
I'm afraid so. You can take it up with him.
- [40:55]
A
Bloody hell.
- [40:56]
B
By the way, is Dan coming?
- [40:57]
A
I don't know. Because our relationship's so good that Mara's in London, I'm in Bucharest and Dan's in Yash, North Romania.
- [41:04]
B
Oh, so he's even with you there?
- [41:07]
A
No, he's in Yash. He's with his parents and Alana. Yeah.
- [41:12]
B
So you're being allowed out on your own. What could possibly go wrong?
- [41:14]
A
I'm hustling. I went to see the Ministry of Education and just lost my temper. I'm. I just. I'm. It's impossible for me to.
- [41:20]
B
You lost your temper with the Ministry of Education?
- [41:23]
A
Not quite. Luckily, I'm foreign, so, you know, the person I was with just kind of, you know, managed to make some joke about me being foreign and my language not being very good. You know, there's. You can always hide it a bit, but honestly, the buck passing, it just really annoys me. It's a different sort of buck passing here. There's a kind of old school bureaucracy, whereas. And I'm obviously focused on the Romanian diaspora in Britain and then needs with Britain, when I try and confront the politicians about this, it tends to be in the form of disinterest. And in Romania, it's a sort of. It's a weird old school bureaucracy that means nothing can get done until something's been ticked off higher up the list. Does that make sense? Yeah, because it doesn't make much sense to me.
- [42:06]
B
By the way, my Instagram reels are now being dominated by things from Romania. It's all. All your. It's all your fault.
- [42:13]
A
Oh, well, I also went to see the Department of Romanians in. Wait till you get. Let me get my head around this word or something like that, the most extraordinary long word, which translates as the department for Romanians everywhere, I. E. Their enormous 5, 6 million plus diaspora. And they gave me this box of Romanian goodies, including a waistcoat that's so large I think it might even fit you. Oh, thank you. So, for the next. The next reel, I'm going to dress you up.
- [42:46]
B
Oh, my God. How have I Just think, I could have had a nice quiet life with Caroline Flint for the last couple of years, couldn't I?
- [42:53]
A
I know, Roy. I don't know why you didn't go for it, to be honest.
- [42:58]
B
Right, I've got another one. Hi there, Ian and Tessa. This is from Caroline. As much as I appreciate AI and love Ian, I would like to think that Ian's commitment to accuracy and wrist snapping. You just can't say things like that without the facts. Tessa would benefit from a steer for all things he needs from all things he or higher education to keep you both on the straight and narrow. And she sent me a link to a blog post which I've had a look at but it's quite long. International student numbers have hugely skewed the general immigration numbers. Yeah, I think we both agreed that last time. And the sector has often called for a fairer representation of the this as a recruitment channel for the sector as it has its funding chipped away at but the money the students generate to the wider and regional economies is also huge. Their fees have subsidised the wider sector and the home student experience as well. So lots of elements will be impacted by the cuts in student numbers. Thanks for your bickering analysis. Well, I don't think that either of us said anything contrary to that. It we.
- [44:03]
A
No, I think. I think once again there's almost a kind of part of you that feels when you've agreed with me that it's not good for your political reputation to agree too much and you come in with some kind of sloppy seconds right wing platitude at the end and I think that's what happened without what.
- [44:22]
B
Where did that come from? All I quoted was student numbers which did show a small drop off in the last year but I think it was much less than you were positing. It was.
- [44:33]
A
You were contesting my figures and my figures were from the Financial Times and you were chat gdp. I think that was it. I have to listen back to be sure. But it's reminded me even though we have recorded this pod not in vision, not the tech on my end by the way, but the tech global. Hello, Leicester Square Global apparently can't manage to get a camera on Ian, I ask you but it does remind me that I've got a second trail that I can play out regarding higher education and its costs to promote this podcast. If that makes sense.
- [45:04]
B
Mr. Dale, if you would like to. That would be absolutely fine by me.
- [45:09]
A
I will. It's me once more reprimanding you. You know when you do. When we record pods remotely on it was interesting on Riverside, the AI selects the trails and it always seems to be me berating you. It's brilliant.
- [45:22]
B
Yeah, because that's all that happens in these podcasts.
- [45:26]
A
If you did your.
- [45:26]
B
And I just lie there. I just lie there and take it.
- [45:30]
A
You lazy bastard. Okay, listen, I'm gonna love you from afar and I'll catch you on Monday with a large embroidered waistcoat.
- [45:37]
B
I can't think of anything I'm looking to forward to more apart from seeing you at the barbecue.
- [45:43]
A
But, Ian, you're only gonna be given the embroidered waistcoat if you promise me you'll wear it to present your LBC show envision.
- [45:50]
B
Then I have to see it first. And I don't. I. I genuinely can't remember the last time I ever wore a waistcoat because I think they're very pretentious things.
- [45:59]
A
All right, well, then I'll show it to you, but you're not being given it. Okay, you can look at it and try it on, but I'm not wasting it on you. Unless you give it air time. That's. That's the condition. I'm promoting Romanians everywhere.
- [46:11]
B
God. Goodbye. What's goodbye in Romanian?
- [46:19]
A
What sounds like lavatory?
- [46:21]
B
Lava de rare vederevidere. Okay. Cheers.
- [46:30]
A
Night.
- [46:32]
C
This has been a global player, original production.