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Tessa Dunlop
This is a global production.
Ian Dunt
So far, all we've heard from Andy Burnham is a series of pledges, half of which he then goes back on when people point out you couldn't do that. And I really do fear that he could turn out to be a busted flush before he's even had time to flush.
Tessa Dunlop
What do you make of those who compare Burnham to Johnson? Ambitious but ideologically vain, Something of a political loner who relies on other people to coalesce around him and organize him. That he's built his reputation on a mayoral heritage. And these are overwhelmingly kind of zeitgeisty, vibey jobs.
Ian Dunt
I think the key word you used there was vibey, because Andy is all about the vibes. Hello, and welcome to a slightly late edition of the End of Week Where Politics Meets History podcast. We're recording this at nine. What is it? Nine something 15 on Friday morning. Because normally we record on Thursday afternoon, but we decided to wait for the King of the north to appear and, boy, has he appeared. Tessa.
Tessa Dunlop
She's sexy. Not quite ready. Just touching up my eyebrows. Got the lashes on. But, you know, there's a lot of competition now. We've got a king coming down from the North. Us two queens have got to improve our act, huh? What do you reckon? How's it looking?
Ian Dunt
So homophobic.
Tessa Dunlop
Hello, Andy.
Ian Dunt
You're looking gorgeous as ever, of course. And I did think, to be fair to Andy, he looked quite good for his age last night. Did he? I was kind of listening to the television rather than watching it. I don't know whether he had his black T shirt on or whether he had actually dressed up for the occasion.
Tessa Dunlop
Actually, black can be very draining for men over 50, but he had some good blush on and I think he had a little bit of Charlotte Tilbury sheen on the cheeks. So everything was looking very sunlit, the sunlit uplands of hope. Because what does Andy Burnham give us? Hopeism against starmerism.
Ian Dunt
I mean, it was very Barack Obama ish, wasn't it? Which basically meant it was all meaningless bollocks. But let's not be trivial, because it was an amazing victory for him. Nobody can deny that 54% of the vote, he got more votes than all the other candidates put together. Lots to unpick from this result, I think, because nobody, absolutely nobody, was predicting that he would win by a majority of 9,000.
Tessa Dunlop
No, but the intelligent voter who sits in the middle, and we still have to believe there's a lot of intelligent voters who sit in the middle, they made a canny decision, which is to hold off the reform tide. They're going to have to help Labour make themselves more presentable for the next election. And so you saw Conservatives and Liberal Democrats leave behind their party allegiance and I think. And Greens. And Greens, to be fair, in a brave way, because that's difficult for many people. And getting behind Burnham and I think it was probably the right thing to do. The only person in the centerish of politics who's not thinking that this morning, of course, is Starmer.
Ian Dunt
Yeah, it's very difficult to sort of compute what is going through his mind this morning, because in some ways he will be pleased, because it was a great victory for Labour, but it wasn't really, was it? I mean, it was a great victory for Burnham, personally. So I don't know what Starmer does now. I mean, he must realise, surely, that the game is up and is he really going to put Labour through a contest? And is West Streeting now going to put Labour through a contest? Because it seems the one. One thing that you can draw from this is that he has scored a victory not just for himself, but for his party and for Labour activists. And let's remember, in any leadership contest, it's the activists that have the vote. It's not MPs. Well, they have one vote, but each activist has one vote. So that the next week is going to be absolutely fascinating. And I can't believe I'm not going to be on the radio to talk about it.
Tessa Dunlop
I know that must hurt, Ian, but never mind, you've got the antidote. That is football.
Ian Dunt
Tessa. Every time I go on holiday, there's always some massive story that blows up. And I'm just sitting there thinking, why did I take this week off?
Tessa Dunlop
Because I think sometimes you need to sit back and, like osmosis, allow these stories to seep in. And you know as well as I do that it's all cultural capital. You will draw on this and you will actually be more attentive of what's happening and able to better compute it by being an observer, like the rest of the nation, than actually in real time trying to articulate what's happening. So, you know, in years to come, you'll still be pulling on this Burnham escapade. And it's not. Doesn't surprise me that every time you go on holiday there's a drama, because we've been in a sort of psychodrama for the last 10 years. This coming week, of course, we're arriving at the 10th anniversary of Brexit. Need I remind you, Ian?
Ian Dunt
Oh, she's got it in. She's got it in. After what, less than 10 minutes? Well done, well done. We just have to have gender and misogyny coming.
Tessa Dunlop
Oh, they're coming. Let's do a professional trail for the pod. I have been doing a deep dive into Tudor politics and have been absolutely mesmerized by the way in which our divisive politics, this idea of it being a sort of 21st century phenomenon. Hell no. We had gender, religion, nationality, all playing out in a horribly divisive way. But the end game wasn't a man coming down as King of the north with new eyebrows, it was getting your head chopped off or your hand burnt. So actually, things are better now, Ian, than they were in Tudor times. I just thought I'd leave that. That thought with you.
Ian Dunt
Of course they were, yeah. You can tell that by Elizabeth I teeth, can't you?
Tessa Dunlop
There was no dentistry, by all accounts. Lady Jane Grey, who tried to usurp the throne. Oh, there's a terrible misogynist as well, in the form of a 15 year old. It's extraordinary. I never really gave Edward VI much thought, but had he lived, I think he'd have been worse than Henry viii. So I'm very glad I've decided he died early of a lung condition.
Ian Dunt
Well, quite how you work that out I do not know, but we will come on to that in a bit. You mentioned Ante Burnham's looks there, but kind of impugning, or is it imputing one or the other that he might pluck his eyebrows and maybe shave that little bit in between? Do you think he does that?
Tessa Dunlop
I hope he does. The current Prime Minister of Romania has what I call a caterpillar. He was also temporarily the President when all the elections went wrong. And it's very distracting, a caterpillar eyebrow, you know, the monobrow. Because you kind of find yourself when they're on telly talking, especially if you're a woman. Yeah, that's even worse. But you find yourself Looking at the eyebrow. And I think while I'm not a big one for doing anything more than plucking and pulling, I think that there is sufficient help today to be able to deal with that. Like hair removal creams have been around for a while. Elizabeth. I had an excuse, I'm afraid Andy Barnum doesn't. But he's looking sharp. Everyone says, oh, Keir Starmer spend the weekend, you know, chewing over it and sleeping on it. He ain't going to be doing much sleeping. Keir Starmer. But if we just quickly in this. Sun's up. England and Scotland both had early victories in the World Cup. There's a feel good vibe, I think that will have helped Bern. These things do help, actually.
Ian Dunt
Let's not skate over that magnificent 42 victory that England had. It was one of the best England performances I think I've ever seen, certainly in an attacking point of view. Would you like to congratulate the England team on their fantastic performance?
Tessa Dunlop
I'm all about looking to Scotland tonight and can they hold Morocco to a draw? The money's not on that.
Ian Dunt
Yeah. I have a little bit of a fear about tonight, I have to say, because Morocco are actually quite a good team.
Tessa Dunlop
To keep with the Tudor analogies. I think Morocco's going to give Scotland a rough wooing back to England.
Ian Dunt
Did you watch it?
Tessa Dunlop
I watched some of it. I loved the. The Romanian. We have Romanian helion in our highest for the World cup because of Dan and the Romanian take on Harry Kane getting given a penalty, then getting given the penalty again. It was like, oh, they want. They obviously need the English viewers to stick with the World cup, you know, like, that was the first goal.
Ian Dunt
Oh, for God's sake. No, I mean, the fact that the goalkeeper actually came off his line, thus flouting all the rules, that had nothing to do with it, of course. Nice to see that Romanian television is as factual as the BBC. By the way, just on that, have you seen this story from the Telegraph? And it does seem to be true that the BBC not only recruited people via a migrants organization to be in the audience of that immigration question Time in Dover, they actually coached them on what they should say. Now that. I mean, I saw Zia Youssef do a video on that. And I mean, given that he was on the end, on the receiving end of it all, I mean, he had every right to be absolutely incandescent, didn't he?
Tessa Dunlop
I think you're taking Umbridge too quickly as someone who tries her best to hold Romanian politicians to account in A poorly learned second language. I speak like an immigrant. I didn't learn the Romanian grammar at school. I know how hard it is on the spot to try and be articulate. And actually I went to the consulate when I kicked off this whole Romanian GCSE thing, because I thought that the status came from the Romanian side. And I got a friend to coach me in how to ask the question effectively. I literally learned it off by heart. And I'm a seasoned broadcaster.
Ian Dunt
Are you seriously comparing that to the state organization putting people in an audience on their own program specifically to do down a particular party politician on question time? Are you seriously drawing that analogy?
Tessa Dunlop
I'm not drawing that in adjective. I think what I'm trying to flag up is that communication is everything. We've just seen that with the Andy Burnham win. I mean, can you define what Burnham ism is? No. Can you see who's in?
Ian Dunt
What's not changing the subject?
Tessa Dunlop
No, but it's key here because actually, if you're unable to communicate effectively because you're working in a second language, but
Ian Dunt
they were, then you're not going to
Tessa Dunlop
get your message across.
Ian Dunt
They could all speak English, but one of them even brought in Boris Johnson, proroguing Parliament and the echr, and he was clearly reading off a screen on his phone. And you think, if the BBC really has stooped to that level, no wonder people have lost trust in it.
Tessa Dunlop
I would need to, first of all, interrogate the Telegraph article. Secondly, I don't think I have a problem with broadcasters trying to get the best out of their contributors. So I would need to know where the genesis of the information came from, like if they were actually fed the lines or if they would just help to articulate a point. And I think there's a clear difference between those two things, Ian.
Ian Dunt
Well, the fact is that they wouldn't do that with any other member of the audience, because the audience is supposed to apply to come on the program and then the BBC pick the audience. And I mean, this just almost proves people's allegations that they just pick it to slant against particular political parties. And if they. If they do that, why would we watch that program anymore, if that's what they do?
Tessa Dunlop
I think there is a broader point there that we so often talk about migrants and asylum seekers and. But we don't often hear. Hear their voice. And I think that it's welcome to include them in a national conversation. They certainly don't have a vote in local or national elections, so at least give them a voice. And you need to Tool up your contributors. I think let's not pretend that the BBC hasn't worked out who they're going to first on Question Time. They always know it's going to be the lady in red or the man with the blue suit on.
Ian Dunt
Yeah, because they pick the questions. But what I'm saying is this undermines confidence in the production of that program because it's clearly biased and I think they'll lose a lot of viewers because of it.
Tessa Dunlop
I think what we can conclude is our podcast definitely isn't biased. There's plenty of balance on either side of the fence.
Ian Dunt
Well, more on your side of the fence, obviously. Just before we go to a break though, brief comment on have you seen this story from Bristol City Council where they've banned the English flag from being flown in Bristol streets in case migrants are offended by it? I mean, what kind of country are we becoming when our national flag is being banned by a left wing council? Because people who've come to this country presumably because they like it or. And they respect it. And I mean, what a surprise we have a national flag.
Tessa Dunlop
I mean, it's unusual decision at the time of a World Cup. Are you sure this isn't an old story being recycled? I'm presuming it's the Green Party.
Ian Dunt
Absolutely not. No, it is a Green Party. Sheila Fogarty was talking about it yesterday and she's not one to indulge in sort of populist rhetoric, but she was appalled. She said, if you believe in community, this does more to damage community relations than anything. Because what the implication is is that the English are so nationalistic and hate foreigners, that any showing of the national flag is deliberately meant as an insult to migrants, which could not be further from the truth. And of course you talk to. I mean, I've been actually quite heartened by the number of Instagram reels I've seen of black or brown. British people actually go out of their way to say, well, I'm flying the flag, I'm proud of England. And there are people going up in the street to ethnic minority people just walking down the street saying, who do you support in the World Cup? And there was. Well, I mean, obviously that they've probably sort of hand picked them in some ways and maybe have deleted some others. But virtually all of them say, well, I'm supporting England, I'm British, I live here, so why wouldn't I support England?
Tessa Dunlop
Well, British is a moot point. I would argue that it's weird timing because getting behind a flag for a football contest is very different from flying a flag for political reasons. So that seems extraordinarily clumsy from Bristol Council, if it's really the case. But in a more broad context, I've always found the Union Jack more inclusive. And one of my great sadnesses is that we don't play as a nation a bit like the Irish do for rugby, but we can come on to that.
Ian Dunt
Well, there is a history to that, of course, in that because football was invented in England, that the four home nations, FIFA have always given them dispensation to act independently and have their own teams, which, I mean, no other country has that privilege in the world. And there have from time to time been efforts to have United States Great Britain team. But that's what. That's why traditionally Great Britain have not entered a team in the Olympics because they thought, well, if they do that, then there'll be a precedent and then FIFA will say, oh well, you can only have one in the World cup or the Euros.
Tessa Dunlop
But anyway, I just love the Lions in rugby.
Ian Dunt
But you don't like the three Lions on the football shirt.
Tessa Dunlop
They're very English.
Granger Announcer
I'm not.
Tessa Dunlop
I was born My first 20 years in Scotland and it doesn't.
Ian Dunt
How can Lions be English?
Tessa Dunlop
It does affect the way you viscerally respond to different flags and different football teams. And that's not judgment on the way I feel in the country that I live, which I love. And I'm feel, you know, feel happy to be a part.
Ian Dunt
There was a guy on Instagram yesterday doing a reel in his car, basically saying that he can't support England because of the hyperbole that Sam Matterface was and, and Lee Dixon were using in the commentary on whenever it was Tuesday or Wednesday that they. They were saying that they use one. He used one example of Declan Rice, who Sam Matterface described as the best corner taker in the world, which I did think when I heard that. Was it Lee Dixon, one of the. One of the two. I did think when I heard that even I, as the most massive Declan Rice fan, would not say he's the greatest corner taker in the world. But of course, whenever your, your team is playing in the World cup, you're sort of. Yeah. Your patriotism, whether you're a commentator or a fan, I mean, it just multiplies by a factor of 10. Should we go to a break?
Tessa Dunlop
You think so?
Ian Dunt
I think so too.
Grainger Announcer
Granger knows when you're a procurement manager for an office park, you're not managing one building, you're managing all of them. And to stay ahead, you need to see through walls and around corners. Lights about to fail, Filters ready to clog H Vac on its last leg. If you wait until something breaks, you're already behind. Count on Grainger for quality products, easy reordering and 24. 7 support. Call 1-800-GRAINGER click grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.
Tessa Dunlop
I know we're about to get a full debrief on three by elections. My little brother, of course, my spy up in Scotland has been sending me texts this morning on the fallout from the other two. Very, very low turnout in strong contra, what went on in Macafield. But just quickly, I obviously follow Sarah Poachin on Instagram and I trust you do too, Ian.
Ian Dunt
Possibly not, but I will. I'll rectify that grievous error.
Tessa Dunlop
She is, of course, the only female MP for reform and she had some very, very cheering news. She said, England won the football last night and thank goodness it did, because on the occasions that England lose their football matches, the instances of domestic violence go through the roof. So boys keep winning. In other words, her response or answer to domestic violence is just for the football team to keep on winning. You can imagine Stella Creasy blew up about this. She was so incandescent with rage, which I'm afraid.
Ian Dunt
I mean, the fact that you've derided it, I think is quite sad too, because it is true that that happens and that's what she was pointing out. And if Jess Phillips had done said exactly the same thing in a video, Stella Creasy, and you would both be saying, well done, Jess, for highlighting this.
Tessa Dunlop
No, I think that that's where you're wrong, Ian. The point is, her solution to stopping men beating women up when they're angry was for footballers to keep winning. That's not a solution to demonstration, because you cannot ever.
Ian Dunt
You cannot ever give any sort of kudos to anyone on the right who says something to gain attention to an issue. And that's what Sarah Pochin's done with this, highlighted it. We haven't heard from the new Safeguarding Minister on this, Natalie Fleet. We haven't heard from Stella Creasy on this, apart from deriding Sarah Pochin. So the fact that she's got us talking about it, she wasn't being serious about saying, oh, well, that's the only solution to domestic violence during the World Cup. But, I mean, we're actually talking about it, so give us some credit for that.
Tessa Dunlop
It just felt very glib. But another that's just making a tally of all the things we fundamentally disagree on today. And I'm already scoring through five. Let's return to Andy Burnham, because I think we're both a bit lukewarm about Andy's politics, but I definitely have understood better his ability as a communicator, his boosterism against Starmerism, his hope against the hopelessness.
Ian Dunt
How haven't I understood that?
Tessa Dunlop
Well, I think. No, that's just where I've come to. But I'm skeptical about whether he's going to give us effective political and economic stewardship.
Ian Dunt
Well, I've said right through the whole campaign that he's a better salesman and marketeer than Starmer. He's a better salesman and marketeer than most politicians to give him do. But where's the beef? To coin a phrase. And I don't see that he's got this marvelous plan for Britain. I mean, if there is a coronation, let's say Keir Starmer decides, okay, the game's up, I'll go, but I'm not waiting until September. They want me out. Okay, I'm going to go now. He will be in the same position that David Cameron would have been in had David Davis stood down after the first round of the leadership vote in 2005. George Osborne, his campaign manager, pleaded with Andrew Mitchell, who was David Davis campaign manager, not to quit the race because Cameron wasn't ready to govern or to lead the party. Hadn't got any plan ready. Theresa May. Similarly, when Andrea Ledsome pulled out in 2017, she had no plan. Sorry, 2016, she had no plan ready to go. And we saw the disastrous effects of that in her disastrous premiership. And I rather fear the same could happen here because so far all we've heard from Andy Burnham is a series of pledges, half of which he then goes back on when people point out you couldn't do that. And I really do fear that he could turn out to be, well, a busted flush before he's even had time to flush, if you see what I mean.
Tessa Dunlop
What do you make of those who compare Burnham to Johnson? And I'll just give you a couple of the ideas that I've picked up that have been swirling around the idea that he is likewise ambitious but ideologically vain, that he's something of a political loner who relies on other people to coalesce around him and organise him, that he's built his reputation on a mayoral heritage, a mayoral patch, his in Manchester, obviously, Johnson's in London. And these are overwhelmingly kind of zeitgeisty vibey jobs which capitalise on their ability and clearly they both do have an ability to sell in stories to a broader public, to sell a positive narrative about your particular locality.
Ian Dunt
I think the key word you used there was vibey, because Andy is all about the vibes. I don't know if you saw Most of his TikTok or Instagram Reels from his campaign during the by election. There wasn't a single mention of any policy in those, in those videos. It was all about Andy Burnham's likability. And I'm one of you, I'm a normal guy and all of. Obviously it was about Makerfield because the by election was in that constituency, but there was no substance there whatsoever. Now, Boris, I mean I, I think this. I, I think I read the same article as you on that. I think the, the comparison with Boris is rather overdone. I mean, obviously there are one or two similarities, but only up to a point, Lord Copper, are they similar. I think Boris did have some basic ideological grounding. I don't think Andy Burnham has got that. I think Boris, initially, and certainly when he was mayor of London, surrounded himself with really good people because he recognized his own weaknesses. When your campaign manager is a former Cabinet minister who resigned over lies over nicking a phone, I mean, I do wonder whether that's a brilliant judgment on his part. And Louise Haig, inevitably, who I rather like, and that shouldn't be held against her for time immemorial. She will no doubt be in his cabinet. But as I go back to the phrase, where's the beef? You can't get through being Prime Minister unless you have some basic moral groundings. I don't really mean it in that sense. Not in a sort of back to basic sense. Where is your political ideology that drives you forward? And I don't think he's really got one. It's all about what's best for Andy Burnham.
Tessa Dunlop
Let's look at the doomerism that engulfed Starmerism from the get go. And I don't think we should underplay the economic inheritance in 20. Is it 20, 24 now? Yeah, two years ago. So if we now look at surprisingly good inflation results, growth higher than expected, actually, things aren't as bad as they were two years ago. Harriet Harman made, I thought, the intelligent point that those three men, and she did stress that they were all men, Wes Streeting, Starmer and Burnham in a room. You couldn't get much of a rizzler paper between their policies.
Ian Dunt
Like most People absolutely could. You absolutely could.
Tessa Dunlop
Political geeks. Her point was, unless you were a political geek, you wouldn't really have a clear idea of how they differ politically. So actually, the main failing of Starmer is his inability to sell the message. And actually, if you change the face, change the vibe, then you're going to start getting results, or at least be able to push back a bit against your political opponents.
Ian Dunt
That's exactly what Conservatives said about Boris Johnson. Let's get rid of Boris and for all sorts of different reasons, and then what comes next will be better. Well, then we got Liz Truss. So my fear here, I think it's going to be quite an interesting for us outsiders to. Well, so no doubt people think we're insiders, but for people outside the Labour Party and outside government, I think it is going to be fascinating to watch and see how he does. And. And I'll say right from the beginning, as I said with Keir Starmer, when he became Prime Minister, I wish him well, because if the Prime Minister does a good job, we all benefit from that. And I remember at the time, people said, what a ridiculous thing to say. No, it's not. Surely most people think like that. Unless you really are such a tribal political animal that you can see no good in any of your opponents and then you just become myopic and just become an armchair critic and will criticise anything that they do. And I've tried to be fair to Starmer and give him credit where he's done well. It's become increasingly difficult nearly two years on, because we're still under two years into the Starmer government. And if Anti Burnham takes over, well, I hope I'm wrong about his lack of beef.
Tessa Dunlop
I hope you're wrong because there is the vibey wave that we.
Ian Dunt
Do you think I am?
Tessa Dunlop
I think this may be enough to save Labour's skin at the next election, if there's a smooth transition. I will be interested if Starmer believes he can fight this. I think he has even less of a political antennae that I get than I gave him credit for. I think Wes Streeting's probably, as a more intelligent individual than both those two men, is reading the political writing on the wall and recognising that this isn't his time to go for the throne. And I think he'll pull in behind Burnham and I think it'll be a coronation. I kind of hope it is, because the idea of another contest just fought out, by the way, not by the general public, not us, but by Labour, a paracheeks local national in the parliamentary Labour Party. It doesn't feel democratic. It doesn't give, I don't think, the subsequent Prime Minister more credibility and it does include more status, more hanging around and waiting for them to actually get on and govern. So I think I'm waiting for an anti coronation as soon as possible. It doesn't mean that he would be my chosen individual, but that's the one that the political weathervane's thrown up and so be it.
Ian Dunt
I can almost bet a lot of money that when we would have been having similar conversations about Conservative leadership contests, and if I said, oh, I think there should be a coronation, you'd have been ranting about how undemocratic it was. It's outrageous. There should be a general election, blahdy, blahdy, blah.
Tessa Dunlop
Well, I certainly wouldn't have wanted to throw it open to the grassroots Conservatives because their judgment has proved time and
Ian Dunt
time again how undemocratic would that be?
Tessa Dunlop
Indeed. So I always feel very conflicted about Prime Ministers changing in the middle of a mandate. But given we're facing down the prospect of a reform government, although that looks less likely, doesn't it, this morning, I think we've got to read the mood music. The writing on the wall for Starmer is very apparent and they just need to get on and take the plunge and I think most of them will do that. I want to come on to Scotland in just one minute, but on Nigel Farage, like you, I've been checking out Instagrams because it's clearly where it's at. Did you see one of Nigel Farage's latest Instagrams?
Ian Dunt
Well, until you tell me what it is, I can't tell you whether I've seen it or not.
Tessa Dunlop
Walking his dogs on a beautiful Essex beach.
Ian Dunt
And why not?
Tessa Dunlop
Good times are coming back with a flat cap. Throwing a stick.
Ian Dunt
I think the lesson on reform is that they find it in every by election there has been. So far, I think I'm right in saying that they haven't broken out of the 30 to 35% mark, which if you're going to win a by election, you have to, okay, they did in Runcorn, give them that, but they didn't in Gordon and Denton. I don't think they did in that Senate election. I think they got 35% there. And if there really is a ceiling on the Reform vote, and I suspect there is, that, that's got to give them a bit of concern to think, well, how can we, if we're going to actually make Nigel Farage, Prime Minister and we're going to have this sort of tactical voting in a general election that took place in this by election. It might be quite difficult for that to happen. I still think that the bookies will still put Reform most likely to form the next government, but it's still two, three years away. So unless Andy Berner surprises us all and does go for a general election, which I highly doubt, and if he did, he'd be mad. I still think Reform are in the game, but in terms of the other parties, it doesn't really. There's no point in interpreting the other parties apart from possibly have a word about restore, who got 3,000 odd votes, 7% of the vote. So if you added that to the Reform vote, they would have got to 42%. I mean, Rupert Lowe's lot could do a lot of damage across the country to Reform and it would be a bit odd for Reform to complain about it because Restore will be doing to them what they did to the Conservatives in the last election.
Tessa Dunlop
Indeed. I think what I really took away from the Instagram post was the idea of Nigel Farage trying to channel a more optimistic, hopeful idea of what he stands for. Because the narky, angry Farage that we saw in the wake of the policing for all around Henry Novak's murder, I don't think did him any favours. And this was him sort of being Merry England. And I think that will be the image that he tries to put forward over the next couple of years more and more. Let's see, in other news, two significant by elections in Scotland that fall under the radar, because I noticed in Makerfield the turnout was 58% up in Scotland. According to Duncan, MSP for the Liberal Democrat for the south of Scotland these days, Tories won in aberdeen on a 38% turnout. This is due to oil house prices there have been tanking, apparently by more than 5% and that is capping off recent equivalent falls. And also of course, the stain of Morrell. But what surprises me is that the SNP had any sort of victory at all and they did in Arbroath and Brawty ferry with a 31% turnout. That is extraordinary indictment of the Scottish political system. A 31% turnout that saw SNP sneak home with one victory out of two.
Ian Dunt
Well, I think the Conservatives were obviously jubilant about Aberdeen south, because I must admit I wasn't expecting that. And if you dig in into the figures there, they got just under 50% of the vote share, 49.5%. That's a 25 plus 25.1 from the general election. Let's remember this was Stephen Flynn's seat and he resigned it to fight to once he got into the Scottish Parliament. Now, you look at the SNP vote, which is actually only down 4.2% to 28.6. Your little brother won't be pleased at the Liberal Democrat vote share, 4.4%. They lost their deposit there as well. But the other significant point here is that the Labour vote declined by 19.4%. So you had a direct transfer from Labour to Conservative. Now that I think is an interesting phenomenon. Now, whether that translates outside Scotland, I don't know. But for the Conservatives to effectively double their vote share in a by election in Scotland, I think Kemi Badenot will see that as a personal victory for her because she's been in that seat campaigning on several occasions over the past few weeks and I wouldn't be surprised if she turns up there today.
Tessa Dunlop
Now, to a Scott, of course, it should be noted that what we have happening there is in some ways similar to what went on for Andy Barnum in Macafield, where you see the Conservative vote, the Liberal Democrat vote, planting very strategically behind a Labour candidate, and likewise up in Aberdeen, a recognition that if we want to get the SNP out, we've got to coalesce behind one particular candidate. But more broadly, it speaks very ill of where Starmer is, is because if you strip out the Burnham factor in the Makerfield by election, this was an indictment not just on the SNP but also on Westminster's Labour. So it's all thumbs down for poor old Starmer this morning.
Ian Dunt
It wouldn't surprise me to see Annasawa quit over the next few months and I think he was determined to stay, but I don't know what relationship he has with Andy Burnham. But when your vote share declines by nearly 20 points in a city where Labour have done okay in Aberdeen in the past, it has been a Tory seat from time to time. I think they won it in the 2017 General Election against all odds. And then Stephen Flynn came in in 2019. But I mean, he's got a few questions to answer today and of course he's very ambitious to be the leader of the SNP after John Swinney. Well, this result won't do his chances any favors at all.
Tessa Dunlop
It's a fascinating political landscape. It's divided, it's fractious and it's a bit angry. The balm of Andy. Does he wear lip balm? That's the other question. That I was contemplating last night before I went to bed. The balm of Andy. Is it sufficient? We'll find out over the next couple of years. In the meantime, I want to take us back in time after the ads, if you don't mind, for a tiny touch of Tudors, if you must.
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Ian Dunt
Right, sorry if there are extraneous noises. It's a Friday morning in Tunbridge Wells and we have the rubbish truck come to collect our rubbish and it's just going by at the moment. So apologies if there is any interference.
Tessa Dunlop
Is it a Conservative council, Ian?
Ian Dunt
It's a Liberal Democrat council, actually.
Tessa Dunlop
Oh, interesting. Do they pick up your rubbish?
Ian Dunt
It's almost as bad as the Tory council was. It seems to be a little bit random. They're supposed to come on Fridays, but sometimes they don't. But I think that is the lot of everyone in life at the moment. Right. You want to go back in time to visit misogyny and genderism in the Tudor times.
Tessa Dunlop
And also not just that, but the way in which we celebrate exceptionalism and the characters or the personalities that are thrown up in really divided times. So we all know that, that the grotesque Henry VIII straddles history like a sort of aging colossus, a thug of yesteryear. And there was this man who broke with the Church in Rome in order to divorce Catherine of Aragon so that he could have a male heir. It wasn't about religion. He was born a Catholic. He was probably always, deep inside his bones, a Catholic. But he breaks with the Church. So then you have a sort of, you know, bastardized form of the Reformation and Protestantism that comes in reluctantly. That will event emerge within 100 years as Anglicanism. And what happens, fascinatingly, and I've never really given this much thought here under Henry, obviously, you plunder the monasteries, you make as much money as you can, you make a big thing of it being all about England, your Holbein portraits and your big posturing king. You then finally get this male heir who, by the Way I never really realized, I don't know, when I say Edward VI to you, what image does it conjure up when I say that?
Ian Dunt
Well, all I know about Edward VI is he was effectively, he was a teenager when he became king and died as a teenager.
Tessa Dunlop
Nine, actually.
Ian Dunt
Was he nine?
Tessa Dunlop
He was nine when he became king. So he dies at 15.
Ian Dunt
Yeah. And that's frankly all I know about him.
Tessa Dunlop
It's interesting because I always had this idea, and I think it's because of one of the portraits, that he was sickly, that he was always sick and kind of destined to snuff it. But actually that wasn't the case. He got this horrible cold and colds, as we know in Tudor times, could be fatal at a Mass where there was much japing and merriment about six months before he dies. And of course it goes into his lungs, he's coughing blood. So he's quite ill for a significant period, for the sort of last five months of his life, he's increasingly aware that he might die and that's where this inheritance and the decisions about succession become increasingly fraught. But actually he was one of the best educated princes, actually minors or kings, if you want to, of all time. He was a Renaissance king. He was not just that. You know, today we talk about and you see it manifesting in green politics at the moment, those ideological young, dare I say it, brackets. I live with one. You know, they are absolutely right. They know best their way or the highway. They have, I think, very little tolerance for us baggy old folk who they think are retrograde and not worth the paper that we're writing on. And it was very similar with Edward, like his was a white hot form of Protestantism. He wanted to get rid of his father's bells and smells. He really wanted this kind of lean, mean Protestant machine that Henry didn't buy into. Henry just wanted to get rid of the Church of Rome so that he could get his divorce out of the way. But under Edward, it was this very, very puritanical version of Protestantism. And it would have been fascinating if he'd lived to continue this extraordinary reformation with Cramer by his side. Of course he doesn't and he's frantically scoring through. The problem is, except for Edward, there's a surfeit of women on every single line of the Tudor tree. So he can't. He's desperately scoring through his sisters. He ends up with Lady Jane Grey and he thinks, well, I'll just have her children, her boy children. And finally, when he realises he's actually going to die. He scores through that and adds, and Lady Jane Grey, I. E Has to concede that as he's not going to live, it'll have to be a woman that replaces him. And then you get this horrible specter of a female monarch. We'd never had one, of course, Matilda tried her best a few centuries earlier, but we'd never had a female king, as they were termed. And that threw up all sorts of other issues about whether it was possible, what this meant for the nation. But I was just really riveted by this kind of teenage embodiment of righteousness that we see everywhere at the moment, manifesting in particularly, but not only in
Ian Dunt
green politics and indeed in your own household.
Tessa Dunlop
Yeah, I know. I'm terrified. She's about to jump on the zoom because she's finished her exam, so she's got some very high powered zoom to get work experience. So I'm speaking even quicker than usual, but it just interested me. And then of course you get Mary, the Catholic, much older sister. And the other thing, as I was reading this, this fascinating exchange between Mary and her little brother who is 30 years younger than her, who is king. Can you imagine the gall having to take it from your half sibling who's 30 years younger than you. He's obviously a Protestant, she's a Catholic. They both end up in tears, you'll be glad to hear, not just her conforming to the hysterical idea of a woman that manifested at the time, but it was just, I don't know, just really reminded me of today's politics. And you get Mary then famously bloody Mary. Was she that bloody? Obviously all the revisions say, oh, she wasn't that bad. She only, you know, burnt 300 people, including Cramer, who goes in with his, you know, he recants and he sticks his hand in the fire first the hand that he scored off his beloved Protestantism with. And then of course, ultimately you get the fudge candidate. You get Elizabeth, the sort of Theresa May, except she wasn't Theresa May. She was actually Theresa May ideologically, but she was Margaret Thatcher in terms of her ability to channel the iconography of the age. And I just, just, I just found so many parallels with tada. I was utterly gripped.
Ian Dunt
Well, given that you've been talking about royal things, there's been a couple of royal stories in the news this week. Meghan and Harry and children are descending on this country in July. What could possibly go wrong? Tessa Dunlop.
Tessa Dunlop
I know. Well, I'm a bit like. It's a bit like you being on holiday with politics. I think I might be on the
Ian Dunt
cruise when payday for you.
Tessa Dunlop
Yes, I know, but I think I'm gonna.
Ian Dunt
Oh, no, Cruising. Really?
Tessa Dunlop
Yes, yes, yes, yes.
Ian Dunt
Oh dear.
Tessa Dunlop
I actually posted about this. I thought in some ways the decision to send George to Eton has longer long term, bigger long term implications for the royal family than a fly by night visit from Harry and Meghan, who really I think will increasingly become yesterday's story. Her business isn't going terribly well as ever. Bottom line is a bit like the British economy, anemic. And I think that they'll fudge along and it'll be reasonably amicable. Increasingly amicable. I think the royal family feel they're on quite a strong footing. My concern, Ian, going into the future is that if in Tudor times we couldn't abide the idea of a woman initially at least today we have embraced the difference that popular monarchy's thrown up with Victoria and then with Elizabeth and the idea that we have Charles, white Protestant male, posh, not Eton educated, but then William, all those things plus Eton and then George. All those things plus Eden and George could live, live for another 90 years. That's a lot of sameness at the head of state level.
Ian Dunt
Well, it's interesting. The reason I wanted to bring this up was there's a YouGov survey about what the public think about George going to Eton. Did you, have you seen this? Okay, tell me what you what percentage of the general public approve of George going to Eaton?
Tessa Dunlop
I would think it goes down royal lines.
Ian Dunt
Well actually, actually to be fair, the poll is about should royal children go to private school or state schools.
Tessa Dunlop
Oh, that's slightly different.
Ian Dunt
Yeah.
Tessa Dunlop
Because I think as a royalist light, I think they probably would always go to private school just for security reasons because of their exceptional status. I think that Eton tops it out a bit because it's such an extreme version, I think think that it will be more than 50%.
Ian Dunt
49% say they should go to private schools. 21% say they should go to state schools and don't know is whatever the rest is. 30 odd percent. So I thought that was quite interesting. I'm not surprised that he's going to Eton. I mean he's being groomed to rule. So I suppose if you're going to rule, you need you go to the school that's provided all of our rulers over the centuries. I can't get terribly excited about it. I think you have to do what you think is right for your children and that's what William and Kate have
Tessa Dunlop
decided and also William, I think he very much saw it as a refuge when his parents were going through their hideous divorce and then subsequently Diana's death. It's also proximate to where they live. It was very predictable it was going to happen. I mean, they moved from Norfolk to Windsor, for goodness sake.
Ian Dunt
But the big question is this. Will the children of Harry and Meghan meet their grandfather for the first time?
Tessa Dunlop
I think they will.
Ian Dunt
It would be awful if they didn't, wouldn't it?
Tessa Dunlop
It would look bad if they didn't. I think he's been slow off the mark with this Charles. I mean, we cut him slack, I suppose, for his age and stage, but I read somewhere that he's going to try and provide their security, which is a kind of olive branch. And they've done their best. Best, I think the Markles, I was going to call them the Sussexes, to
Ian Dunt
not actually imagine if I'd done that. You would have jumped right down my throat if I'd done that, wouldn't you?
Tessa Dunlop
Probably, yeah, probably. So I think it's enough times past there's been a softening. I think there's been an understanding actually as well that they didn't get everything right necessarily at the Sussexes, but also that it's not that easy outside the institution. Kate just has to put on a yellow dress and she grabs all the headlines. You know, the King writes a pre written speech in front of Congress and he grabs all the headlines and it is much, much harder outside the institution. And I don't think they probably had the foresight or knowledge to appreciate that.
Ian Dunt
I've never really seen Kate interact with people. I mean, you see her having conversations, but I've never heard her before. And there was something I saw the other day where she was having a conversation with somebody that she met on one of the walkabouts and it lasted quite a while and it was just so natural. It wasn't her being grand and royal. She was really connecting with the person. I mean, I don't know whether she's like that normally, but she really, I mean, she's never been down in my estimation, but she went up even further.
Tessa Dunlop
Oh gosh, you've made my toes tingle, Ian. How often predictable for a man of your age and stage to appreciate the assets of Kate Middleton.
Ian Dunt
Yeah, there's one, one thing that you forget there, but we'll, we'll gloss over that. Now you've got some questions. I think I've got a couple as well. So let's take a short break and we'll come on to them.
Tessa Dunlop
Brilliant.
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Ian Dunt
Do you know what I've been doing over the last few days of my being on holiday? Recording my audio audiobook, and it's been an absolute disaster because I've got one of the settings wrong. So I then had to go back and do it all over again. And then I thought, well, it's got to be easy to upload, but it's. You have to have settings on different things, which I didn't know. So I've. I've hired someone to do it all for me. But I've only got five chapters in, so only 22 to go.
Tessa Dunlop
Oh, my goodness.
Ian Dunt
Hate recording audiobooks.
Tessa Dunlop
This is where you wish you had been more brutal with your self edit button, Ian.
Ian Dunt
Yeah, absolutely right. Although the awful thing is when you have you found this, when you, when you record an audiobook, you, because you're reading it out, you don't discover mistakes necessarily, but you think, oh, I should have worded that a bit differently or I should have done that sort of slightly differently. It's quite frustrating when you sort of discover things. And there's one thing in the editing process where I explain why I did German at school. And the reason was because I was one of the better ones at French, even though we were all shit in our class. But I don't actually mention the word French because somehow it's got edited out. So I think, well, a normal reader isn't going to really understand that. So I've corrected it in the audiobook book. But anyway, enough of my frustrations. Do you have a question?
Tessa Dunlop
No. But a tip I would give to aspiring writers is, and even when I'm filing an article on Harry and Meghan, always try, don't always live up to this benchmark, but I always try and read it out loud before I file it because you hear things very differently from the way in which you see them. And if you're reading to speak as opposed to just reading in your head, it has a different way a more interrogative way of interpreting the word on the page. And it really helps. So that's a tip. Here we have one from WherePolitics MeetsHistory on the Instagram. Hi both. On the last pod, Ian asked for evidence that the Australian economy is doing better than the uk. Tessa put out a call for Aussie listeners. So here I am. First, average salaries Australia is $107,000. The UK is £39,000. Exchange rates equal X, therefore Aussie salary average £56,000 to Britain's £39,000 debt to GDP ratio Australia is 34%. The UK 103.6%. Australia last ran a budget surplus in 2023. The UK not since 2001. Australia has the third best global health system, the UK not in the top 20. We get twice as many sunny days.
Ian Dunt
Oh my goodness, talk about cherry picking. I mean the thought that Australia has the best health service in the world. Well, most Australians would not agree with that.
Tessa Dunlop
This is from Kate. She does end because she's tried to inject valence at the end of her message and before the usual but what about all the venomous animals? Assertion is brought up the most dangerous animal by fatalities in Australia is the horse.
Ian Dunt
Okay, well thanks. Thanks for that piece of information. Hillary says Ian, love the podcast with Tessa. She's great and I've started to read her books after hearing her discuss history with you. I enjoyed your recent discussions about Ukraine's war with Russia. I think you mean Russia's war with Ukraine, Hillary. I wondered whether either or both sides are allowed to send letters home. Have either of you read if you're reading this last Letters from the Front Line by Sean Price, it frequently had me in tears. Look out Ian, I love that you cry. Actually, I've just been commissioned. You know you do you sometimes do this inewspaper Saturday column test? Well, I'm doing one when my book comes out and thanks for the name of the woman to contact by the way. And I'm writing it all about men crying and my preponderance to cry because when I've been reading the book back that the number of times in fact I should do a word search on it, the number of times I talk about me crying or breaking down in tears or whatever. It's quite something. Anyway, she continues it covers letters from the Napoleonic battlefields to Afghanistan and is incredibly moving and thought provoking. I haven't read that book or haven't heard of it Hillary, so thanks for the tip but but I imagine that most people who go into battle, whatever side they're on, they know what the outcome could be. And so therefore the sensible thing would be not only to write a will, but to write a letter to your nearest and dearest.
Tessa Dunlop
Yeah, two points there. In fact, one of the most moving interviews I did for Lest We Forget My book was Helen Lewis, I think I've mentioned this, whose son, Aaron Lewis, died in 2008 in Afghanistan. It was shrapnel falling from a Taliban, a pump of a rifle just up into the air, a kind of bravado rip into the air of rifle fire that ended up totally, randomly killing him. And she has taken great consolation. I mean, it didn't touch the sides, but it was a form of balm from the letters that he left. The MoD stipulate, ideally, that before you go into operational service, you leave behind letters, lest the worst case scenario happens. He did. Many don't. And in it, he. He beseeched her not to be angry with the government, not to be angry with the army and not to be angry with Afghanistan. That it was his choice. And it has, she said, really helped her. She goes back to that letter every so often in her sort of hour of need or when she's really missing him. And I found it deeply moving to talk to her. And I do think there's an absence or a gulf or a gap if those letters don't exist when people hear the worst news possible. I think I know Sean Price, I think she's Welsh and I think she did a teleseries or some broadcast that led to the publication of this book just quickly because of electronic communication. I think the old form of letter writing is less prevalent now. Coming back from the front line. But in that Storyville BBC documentary that I beseech everyone to watch, there is communication, but it's inconsistent and their access sometimes, or their ability to communicate is also sometimes interrupted.
Ian Dunt
I love your use of the word beseech. It's not often you hear that word used in everyday context. Conversation nowadays. Right.
Tessa Dunlop
Because I've been reading Tudor History.
Ian Dunt
Yeah. This one, it's from Tom and it's about Nicola Sturgeon. So it goes back to the discussions we had a couple of weeks ago and I meant to read this out then, but didn't get round to it. He says. I've listened to various iterations of your podcast for over five years now and love the insights you give. I struggle to listen to your defense. Defence, particularly in your last episode of Miss Sturgeon and her behaviour and denials over events surrounding her husband's embezzlement. I actually think that you belittle the former First Minister's intelligence by suggesting she may not have had concerns regarding purchases made by her husband. Wake up, Ian, you're better than this. Do some digging. There might even be a book in it for you. P.S. the motorhome, you maintain that was plausible to have been unseen by her was visible from scratch space by Google Maps, for goodness sake. Yeah, because I imagine Nicola Sturgeon spent a lot of time on Google Maps looking at mother in law's house. I do love it when people say, you often get this on social media, Ian, you're better than this. And you think, well, no, I'm not actually. I was giving my honest views and I think it's entirely plausible that she just didn't clock the thing. So I am not resiling on my views, Tom, but we will be discussing this at the the Edinburgh Fringe on November 8th. And do buy tickets from edfringe.com I
Tessa Dunlop
think you mean September 8th and I've got to say that.
Ian Dunt
No, I don't. I mean August the eighth.
Tessa Dunlop
I think you said November.
Ian Dunt
Oh, did I?
Tessa Dunlop
I've got to say, I'm glad she gives you the benefit of the doubt and thinks that you're better than that, because I don't think you are better than that.
Ian Dunt
And, you know, nor do I. So we are in agreement. What's a great way to end the. The podcast. Oh, God. Now, we will be recording another one at the normal time on Monday, so you'll get it on Tuesday. I've still got another week to go on my holiday, which I'm spending not just recording my audio audiobook, but helping John clear out the garage. We've got two loads in a Ford Galaxy taken to the dump so far and there's at least another three to go. So we're making progress.
Tessa Dunlop
Know, I'm so glad that that didn't qualify as fluff at the top of the program.
Ian Dunt
Well, I just thought I get it in because I'm a man of the people, I do normal things. People imagine that because you and I are in the public eye, that we have these sort of exalted lives where we just do lovely, gorgeous things. No, not like that at all. We live exactly the same life as anybody else.
Tessa Dunlop
I went for dinner last night with an old friend. I hadn't seen her for a while and. And we were talking about, you know, I don't know, what were we talking about? How can I frame this appropriately? The attentions of the opposite sex, in our case, Ian. And she said, don't you get people accosting you and hitting on you because you're in the public eye? And she could have put brackets and you wear fake eyelashes. But she didn't. I did today for Andy Barnum. And I went, no. No one ever accosts me or hits on me. More's the pity, thought Tessa.
Ian Dunt
Well, I'm quite surprised at that, actually, because I would have thought you would be. Should we. The subject maybe? The subject of many attentions.
Tessa Dunlop
No. Only once a very attractive male model. Very in his 20s. He was absolutely eye watering. And that's, you know, that's been a pleasing memory to go back to, but it was now about five years ago, so I don't think I can count that as a recent incursion.
Ian Dunt
Okay, well, before we descend into smut, which I know you don't like, will end there. Hope you all have a lovely weekend. I hope Scotland win tonight. Hope. Oh no, England aren't playing till Tuesday. It's very frustrating that sort of. They should be playing more matches every day in concertina. It's taking too long, this tournament. Anyway, goodbye, Au revoir. And do email questions too. Where politics meets historyglobal.com or leave them on the Instagram feed as well. That's it for today. We've done exactly an hour, which will be less than an hour once Corey edits out all of our mistakes.
Tessa Dunlop
Bye.
Ian Dunt
This has been a global production.
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Date: June 19, 2026
Hosts: Iain Dunt & Dr. Tessa Dunlop
This week, Iain Dunt and Tessa Dunlop dive into the political earthquake surrounding Andy Burnham’s surging ascent and its impact on Labour’s leadership, viewing the turbulence as both political spectacle and historical echo. The episode is spiked with offbeat historical context, playful banter, and a looping back and forth between current events, personality-driven politics, and the longer arcs of British parliamentary and royal history.
The hosts keep the tone sharply witty, irreverent, historically literate, and full of lively disagreement. Political analysis is often lampooned with asides about makeup, banter about monobrows, and Tudor executioners—bringing the past into dialogue with the present while maintaining a friendly adversarial energy.
If you missed this episode, expect a brisk, perceptive rundown of Labour’s internal drama, media trust issues, the resonance of historic succession crises, and why the nation debates even the eyebrow grooming habits of its politicians—all served with a healthy dose of repartee and perspective.