136. There Keir Goes

Summary

Podcast Summary: Where Politics Meets History

Episode 136: "There Keir Goes"

Date: June 23, 2026
Hosts: Iain Dale and Dr Tessa Dunlop

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Episode Overview

This episode, titled “There Keir Goes,” unpacks the seismic moment in British politics: the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Iain Dale and Tessa Dunlop use their characteristic blend of sharp analysis, wit, and historical perspective to examine Starmer’s downfall, the ascension of Andy Burnham, and the shifting make-up of the Labour Party. They situate these developments within a wider historical and international context—drawing parallels with past political shocks, and exploring how Brexit’s anniversary continues to reverberate through Westminster. Expect lively debate, memorable quotes, and thoughtful speculation on what lies ahead.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Moment Keir Starmer Stepped Down

• Missed the Live Moment ([01:35]):

  • Tessa recounts narrowly missing Starmer’s resignation announcement, having waited anxiously for news before the school run.
  • Iain admits he was asleep: “I did mean to get up earlier, because I obviously thought this would happen this morning, but... went straight back to sleep.” ([02:26])

• Jackie Smith's Media Round:

  • Jackie Smith, former Cabinet minister, was on the media circuit representing Labour, highlighting political loyalty in moments of turmoil.

Personalities and Political Betrayals

• Ed Miliband's Role ([00:34] & [14:17]):

  • Iain is scathing about Miliband, accusing him of “stabbing Keir Starmer in the back over the last few weeks.”
  • “Starmer has a right to feel very bitter about that. There’s nothing to say he wouldn’t do the same to Andy Burnham.” —Iain ([14:43])

• Likelihood of Ed Miliband as Chancellor:

  • Both agree it's highly unlikely due to market fears and internal politics.
  • They tip Wes Streeting as the probable pick: “Say it together after three. One, two, three. Wes.”—Both ([15:17])

Why Did Keir Starmer Fall?

• Comparisons to 1990 and Margaret Thatcher’s Departure ([06:44]):

  • Iain: “everyone around the world...could not understand how the Conservative Party could ditch Margaret Thatcher,” drawing a parallel to confusion over Starmer’s removal.

• The Likeability Factor:

  • Iain’s thesis: “He hasn’t got the likability factor...People have come to hate him.” ([07:44])
  • Tessa pushes deeper: “I would suggest it’s because...his ordinariness and his establishmentism... he is, by the book.” ([08:50])
  • Debate on Starmer’s North London image, and how Andy Burnham’s ‘everyman’ brand gives him an edge.

Branding, Image, and Political Identity

• Andy Burnham’s Northern ‘Brand’ ([09:17]):

  • Discussion on Burnham’s successful cultivation of a “King of the North” persona, symbolized by his train journey in Birkenstocks.
  • Tessa quotes the Times: “Burnham’s bare feet looked clean, his nails neat but not newly pedicured...Uniqlo man uniform is real.” ([09:56])

• Comedians and Political Brands:

  • Iain warns that being lampooned is a double-edged sword: “when comedians start to take the piss out of you...possib[le] problem area.” ([11:05])
  • Tessa: satire can signal brand breakthrough too.

Historical Parallels and British Political Flux

• Prime Ministers on a Conveyor Belt ([23:45]):

  • Iain offers a historical survey: “What we are experiencing now is different...but it is not unusual if you go back in history.”
  • Parallels drawn to periods of British history with frequent leadership changes (the 1750s, early 1800s, 1920s).

• Stable Governments—A Thing of the Past?

  • Tessa: “Our first-past-the-post system...was lauded for stable governments...It’s not comparable.”

The Brexit Effect

• Brexit’s Legacy ([11:05], [21:33], [29:12]):

  • Tessa claims Brexit sowed tribalism: “What Brexit unleashed was a tribalism...that has had a long-term legacy.” ([31:25])
  • Iain agrees that “Brexit referendum triggered off the political uncertainty...over the last 10 years” but attributes only “about 5%” of Starmer’s resignation to Brexit ([30:38]).

• Polling on EU Membership:

  • Both highlight recent YouGov/Observer polling suggesting most Brits do not want the EU debate reopened.
  • Iain: “if they suddenly had a policy of effectively rejoining the single market...that will be manna from heaven for Nigel Farage.” ([34:30])

Future of the Labour Party and Cabinet Speculation

• Coronation vs. Contest ([15:23]):

  • Wes Streeting’s immediate support for Burnham likely means “a coronation, which gives Andy Burnham very little time to prepare.”

• Dangers of Coming in Unprepared:

  • Historical precedents (Gordon Brown, Theresa May) of Prime Ministers with no government plan ([15:23], [16:44]).

• Who's In, Who’s Out? Cabinet Watch ([47:02] onward):

  • David Lammy: Not expected to remain Deputy Prime Minister, possibly out of Cabinet.
  • Rachel Reeves: Seen as “toast” by both.
  • Yvette Cooper: “Harder to call” but may be offered a more junior role.
  • Shabana Mahmoud: Likely to stay at the Home Office.
  • Keir Starmer: Rumors he may be offered Foreign Secretary, or step down as MP.
  • Wes Streeting: Favoured for Chancellor.
  • Others: Lisa Nandy tipped for promotion, Steve Reed and Peter Kyle both on the “danger list;” Angela Rayner could return as Deputy.
  • Balance of Continuity vs. Change: “He can't change every Cabinet Minister... that would lead to chaos." —Iain ([51:12])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Exchanges

On Political Loyalty and Betrayal

• “Ed Miliband... has stabbed Keir Starmer in the back over the last few weeks.” —Iain ([14:17])
• “I think Keir Starmer has a right to feel very bitter about that.” —Iain ([14:27])

On Starmer’s Image Problem

• “He hasn’t got the likability factor… people have come to hate him.” —Iain ([07:44])
• “His ordinariness and his establishmentism...he is by the book.” —Tessa ([08:50])
• “What normal person wears Birkenstocks?” —Iain, on Burnham’s footwear ([09:53])

On Historical Cycles

• “If you look at British history, nothing unusual [about PM turnover]...It’s unusual in the last century…but it is not unusual.” —Iain ([25:04])
• “Our first-past-the-post system was always famous...for the stable governments it threw up.” —Tessa ([27:22])

On the Brexit Anniversary

• “Well over 90% of us didn’t give a shit. It’s a fabricated division, and that, I think is one of the reasons why I hate Brexit.” —Tessa ([21:33])
• “It was always an issue that was more relevant to Conservative Party members than it was to the wider electorate.” —Iain ([29:12])

On Losing Office

• “The one thing you can guarantee about being a Prime Minister is you won’t end up a Prime Minister.” —Tessa ([23:45])
• “Almost always there’re tears at the podium...The one time when you can be human and inject the human into politics—when it’s too late.” —Tessa ([54:30])

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Important Timestamps

• [03:44] — Media rounds and impressions the morning of Starmer’s resignation
• [06:16] — International confusion, “what was wrong with Keir?”
• [07:22] — Why did Starmer become so disliked?
• [09:17] — Andy Burnham’s image and “man of the people” act scrutinized
• [11:05] — 10th anniversary of Brexit and its enduring effects
• [23:45] — Deep dive into frequent historical PM changes
• [31:25] — Brexit’s legacy on British tribalism discussed
• [34:30] — Polling on EU membership, Farage’s angle, and new Labour trade policy
• [47:02] — In-depth Cabinet speculation: who’s likely to stay, who’s likely to go

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Tone and Dynamic

The podcast maintains its trademark blend of sharp irreverence, banter, and deep historical insight. Iain’s political expertise and Tessa’s historical rigor are spiked with personal anecdotes, light spats (“Are you speaking in your big man voice?”—Tessa, [42:47]), and references to personal lives and relationships—offering listeners both intimacy and analysis.

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Listener Questions & Offbeat Moments

• Flag controversy: Brief debate over whether councils have previously banned football flags from lampposts ([42:25]).
• Prime Ministerial resignation quiz: Tessa challenges Iain to identify PMs from resignation quotes—a playful break ([36:07] onward).
• Personal reflections: Both reflect on the emotional toll of losing power, with Iain drawing on his own political defeat ([57:22]).
• Cabinet-game send-up: “Should I stay or should I go?” game for Burnham’s potential Cabinet lineup ([47:02]).

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Conclusion: What Happens Next?

• The hosts foresee intense scrutiny on Burnham’s capacity to articulate a clear vision as PM, questioning whether ‘vibes’ are enough without substance.
• The ongoing churn at the top highlights tensions in British politics unresolved since Brexit—and wider anxiety about British decline and international standing.
• Listeners are encouraged to submit more questions for the next episode, which promises further analysis as the political dust settles.

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For feedback and questions:
[e-mail] or Instagram @wherepoliticsmeetshistory

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Key Takeaway:
Politics in Britain often repeats its own history, but the stakes—personal, national, and international—feel especially fraught, and the future of the Labour Party remains an open question.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

This is a global production.

[C]

Ed Miliband, I think, has not covered himself in glory recently because he's a close friend of Keir Starmer and actually, I think helped get him into Parliament and helped him become leader. And he, more than anyone else, has stabbed Keir Starmer in the back over the last few weeks. And I think Keir Starmer has a right to feel very bitter about that. And there's nothing to say that he wouldn't do the same to Andy Burnham. I don't think that Ed Miliband will be Chancellor under Andy Burnham. I can tell you who I think will possibly.

[B]

Let's say it together after three. One, two, three. Wes. Greetings.

[C]

This is not an emergency podcast. Repeat, this is not an emergency podcast. We always record on Monday afternoon and that's what we're doing. But it's not often. Well, actually, it's become increasingly often that you can record a podcast when a Prime Minister leaves office. But where were you when you heard the news, Tessa?

[B]

I was running back from the school gate because I'd waited all morning listening intermittently to Radio 4. I know I did dip in occasionally. Nick Ferrari, I promise. Just to see such a liar. Was it that obvious? Yeah, I'd be a brilliant politician. Anyway, I thought, who. Who they going to put up this morning to take the flag? Because Keir Starmer's been in lockdown with his wife. Really interesting parallels between Vic, by the way, and Sherry Blair will come onto that. And I thought, if they've got nobody doing the rounds, that means that Keir Starmer's the fall guy. He's going to take it. But of course, they delivered after 9pm 9am, rather sorry. I've got my clocks in a muddle, which was slightly gutting because I'd hung on till 5 minutes to 9 and then had to rush and leave Elena. So I missed the live. I had to listen to him on repeat. Very upsetting.

[C]

Well, I missed it too, but for a very different reason.

[B]

Why, pray? Why?

[C]

I'm still asleep. I did mean to get up earlier, because I obviously thought this would happen this morning, but I woke up about 8 and then went straight back to sleep. But you're wrong, there was a minister doing the rounds and it was Jackie Smith, because I didn't hear her. Well, I spoke. Well, I don't know whether she did the Today program, she certainly did others. I spoke to her yesterday evening about half past ten, because I've. I think I have mentioned this before. She's asked me to do a reading at her wedding at the beginning of August, and I've written. I didn't want to do one of these sort of things you just find on the Internet. So I thought, well, I'll write one myself. So I wrote this poem which I think I have tested out on you and Corey. And anyway, she sent me the whole sort of script of how it's all going to work and I read it and I'm thinking, I don't know whether what I've written is really appropriate because she said, you can make it a little bit irreverent if you want. So of course, naturally I did. So she then emailed this thing to me and I said, well, I think. I think I'd better read out to you what I've written and please be honest if you think it's inappropriate. Anyway, she really liked it. So then we, of course started talking about what's going on and she told me that she was. She was on the media round this morning. I said, are you mad? What on earth did you say yes to doing that for?

[B]

That does seem extraordinary that she agreed to doing the media round. I take my hat off to her, to be honest, because it wasn't an easy job. Douglas Alexander was on this lunchtime and he, like Jackie, straddled the new Labour administration and the current one. And it's interesting just how quickly he pivoted 180 to, on the one hand, say, you know, emotion, poor care, hear his voice breaking, the sadness, the brutality of politics. And then. Yeah, well, me and Andy, we go back to way back when, us too. And actually, I wonder what Jackie would have said if she'd been on the lunchtime round, because she could use that card.

[C]

Oh, she could. She could. Well, of course I served in the Cabinet with Andy Burnham. What a magnificent Cabinet minister he was. I haven't listened.

[B]

Douglas Alexander said. He said, I served in the Cabinet.

[C]

Well, the fact is, I mean, he held two positions. He was Culture Secretary and Health Secretary and I don't think that anyone can remember anything he did that was major in either job, apart from privatize a hospital, which may come back to haunt him as may that video that's just surfaced from the 2015 leadership campaign where he said, well, of course, the first country I would visit if I became leader is Israel. Well, you can imagine that's going to go down well among the brethren.

[B]

First of all, 2015 in terms of where we are with Israel is a long time ago. And more specifically, where the Labor Party are with Israel. Secondly, I know you're, again, Andy, great hair, a good complexion. I think you are a bit instinctively anti Andy.

[C]

Okay, let me, let me lay my cards on the table. I'm anti Andy in the sense that I'm anti Labour. I like him as a person, always have done. I don't think he's going to be a good Prime Minister. And I want the next Prime Minister to be a good Prime Minister for all sorts of different reasons, because if he turns out to be the emperor with no clothes, which is what I wrote yesterday, we're all going to suffer for that. And we can't really afford another failure as Prime Minister. So I genuinely wish him well. I want him to do well, but I'm not confident that he will. He'll talk a good game, that's for sure. But also, if you think about it, the key to his success has got to be the people that he has around him, both in Downing street and in his Cabinet. Do we expect his Cabinet, and we'll come on to this a bit later. Do we expect his Cabinet to be markedly different from Keir Starmer's? I don't think we do, but let's talk about that in a bit.

[B]

Several things that I want to address in this podcast because I think it'll help us understand better how we've ended up here with a seventh prime minister in 10 years. Incidentally, my international friends are like, what was wrong with Kier? Like, they're a bit perplexed, actually, because on the international stage, I think they feel he's been a credible, even positive influence in the international conversation. And some people that I've met have expressed regret and are confused.

[C]

Well, go back to 1990, and there are so many parallels to be drawn with 1990, and let's expand on that in a bit. But everyone around the world in 1990 could not understand how the Conservative Party could ditch Margaret Thatcher. And let's remember, she had won three elections. She never lost an election. She'd been, to all intents and purposes, incredibly successful, particularly on the international front. And yet the Conservative Party got rid of her because they didn't think she could win the next election. And that's essentially why the Labour Party is getting rid of Keir Starmer, because they don't see him as an election winner for next time. And he acknowledged that in his speech.

[B]

Which begs the deeper question, and let's try and interrogate this in the pod. Why is he so despised, disliked? It's disproportionate in relation to his political crimes. And I think if you can get to the bottom of that, you can work out why and how and perhaps Andy might be a success.

[C]

And I think that's a really good question. I think there is a very simple answer to it. He hasn't got the likability factor and that may sound shallow, but that's what modern day politics is partly about. Yes, you need to command respect, but people also need to like you or not hate you. And hate is a very strong word to use about prime ministers. But people have become, have come to hate him. I was listening to Alistair Campbell earlier and he was saying that he, he just doesn't understand this phenomenon of people intensely disliking Keir Sammer because he says he's not a dislikable guy. And I think if, if, if he was on this podcast with us, we'd probably quite like him. But he, he hasn't managed to transmit that through to the electorate in any meaningful way. People don't like the way he talks. People don't like the fact that he's a North London sort of Islington type, liberal, sort of a little bit wokey on some, some issues. That doesn't go down with that group of the electorate who would describe themselves as, as maybe centrist but on the edge of centrism, if you see what I mean, on the right.

[B]

Okay. I still don't think that explains why he's loathed. I get that he's a disappointment. I get that he lacks charisma. I get that despite his father being a toolmaker, he's associated with the bourgeois in Islington. But it doesn't explain why he's loathed. I would suggest it's because his ordinariness and his establishmentism, because he very much is by the book. He's a rule.

[C]

He's, he's not ordinary, though. He can go drone on about being a son of a tool maker for all he likes, but he doesn't look like an ordinary person. Andy Burnham does, to be fair, and, and really tries to capitalize on that. I mean, this, this spectacle of him this morning coming down from Manchester as if he's come to save the country, coming down, the King of the north, becoming the new emperor with no clothes, getting on the train in his black t shir jacket, black jeans.

[B]

What.

[C]

What was he wearing? He wasn't wearing shoes, was he? He's wearing some trendy. Is it Groks?

[B]

Hang on a minute. He was wearing Birkenstocks. This is.

[C]

But what normal person wears Birkenstocks?

[B]

Oh, well, according to the Times newspaper, that bastion of establishment thinking, going back to what I'm saying about that being where the mood is, this is what they said about Andy's footwear yesterday. Imagine, by the way, if Keir Starmer had been wearing Birkenstocks. It wasn't. It was Andy. This is what they wrote. A pair of Birkenstocks, Birkies. Question mark. An 85 pound pair of orthopedic sandals. Isn't the brainwave of a spin doctor Burnham's bare feet looked clean, his nails neat, but not newly pedicured. For the photograph with Burnham, you can tell the Uni Glo man uniform is a real one, not something put on for the polls really at the Times.

[C]

Okay.

[B]

I wanted to bath in my mouth.

[C]

Yeah. I mean, look, this image that he's built up for himself is sort of. You can trust me, I'm a northerner, I speak the truth. That. That goes only so far. And I think he's been very successful in that. In that so far. But when you get comedians starting to take the piss out of you for it, then I think you possibly entering a slight problem area.

[B]

I don't know. I think when comedians take the mickey out of you, it can be seen as a compliment. It can be seen that your brand is breaking through. I still want to. And it's a very significant 10th anniversary tomorrow, the day that most people will be listening to this pod. So we're going to touch on the B word because there is a connection, whether you like it or not, Ian, to the fact that we have our seventh prime minister or about to have our seventh prime minister in 10 years, and that's the 10 year anniversary of Brexit. But also, if we may, I want to look at what I think is Keir Starmer being the personification of British decline. And we have for decades said, oh, you know, we busked at the Empire, we didn't care. We shed the Empire, we moved on. We never did move on in. We've got really exceptional ideas of ourselves and I'M not saying they're necessarily wrong, but I'm saying that when they are up against an anemic economy led by a man who looks ordinary in all the wrong ways, we can't stomach it. And that's what Keir Starmer was the personification of where Britain's at up to a point.

[C]

Lord Copper, let's go to a break and we will pick that up in just a moment.

[A]

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[B]

The recording of this pod has interrupted me listening to Tom. Is it Bradbury, the biographer?

[C]

Baldwin.

[B]

Baldwin, that's the one.

[C]

I feel I've done you a service, then.

[B]

He is way, way too close to his product. He loves Keir Starmer. Like, he sounds more emotional than Starmer.

[C]

It is ridiculous that he is Starmer's biographer. I mean, it's a bit like me thinking, oh, well, I'll write a biography of Mark. Oh, yeah, I did, didn't I?

[B]

Yeah. I never think it makes for the best history, that's all, when the person writing it is so partial.

[C]

Yeah. I mean, he was also very close to the Blair administration and I mean, Alastair Campbell used to leak to him like a sieve. And also indeed to Gordon Brown. I mean, he wasn't a bad journalist. I mean, he did disco. He did break quite a lot of big stories when he was on the Times. But, yeah, and I, I, I had a bit of a, should we say, feud with him and we buried the hatchet, so to speak, when Ed Miliband was leader and he was Ed Miliband's director of communications, because I wanted Ed Miliband to do a phone in with me, the block. So we had a coffee in Port Carlo's house and sorted it all out and. And then the phone in happened, so. Got my way in the end, as I usually do.

[B]

Very good. And we've seemingly and seamlessly segued to Ed Miliband. Now he's being touted as possible Chancellor and given the heat wave, I think very well placed our net zero Champion Green, fuelling the economy. What do you feel about that then, as a prospect?

[C]

I think there is no prospect whatsoever of Ed Miliband being Chancellor of the Exchequer under Andy Burnham, but I may live regret saying that because he has been heavily tipped. But if you are an incoming Prime Minister and you want to reassure the markets and you want somebody who is basically going to be a steady chancellor rather than a radical left wing chancellor, you're not going to pick Ed Miliband. And I have to say, Ed Miliband, I think, has not covered himself in glory recently because he, he's a close friend of Keir Starmer and actually I think helped get him into Parliament and helped him become leader. And he, more than anyone else, has stabbed Keir Starmer in the back over the last few weeks. And I think Keir Starmer has a right to feel very bitter about that. And there's nothing to say that he wouldn't do the same to Andy Burnham. I don't think that Andy, that Ed Miliband will be Chancellor under Andy Burnham. I'll tell you. I can tell you who I think

[B]

will possibly say it together after three. One, two, three. Where's greeting?

[C]

Well, because Wes, I think surprised a lot of us by immediately as soon as Andy Burnham put his tweet out, basically said, yeah, I'm gonna, I'm gonna row in behind Andy Burnham. I didn't expect him to do that. And I'm not sure that's the right thing to do actually, for all sorts of reasons. Not least because it means that there's likely now to be a coronation, which gives Andy Burnham very little time to prepare for, for being the new Prime Minister. And we know, I wrote about this yesterday on my substack, we know that the same thing happened to Gordon Brown. He had no plan when he came in. Look what happened. And that happened in spades with Theresa May. She wasn't expecting to become Prime Minister, but suddenly Andrea Ledsome pulled out and so instead of becoming Prime Minister in September 2016, she became Prime Minister on July 8th or 9th and she had no plan for government whatsoever. And boy did it show.

[B]

So I think, I think that's unfair. First of all, Theresa May was a Brexit sticking plaster. We're coming to Brexit, which I think is the bleeding wound that's delivering this ever revolving door. So I think Theresa May can be forgiven for a lack of a plan. Gordon Brown came to an end of a fizzling out New Labour administration. He got the fagbot at the very Bottom of the bin. And he was never going to float, partly because he, like Keir Starmer, lacked a degree of charisma, although I think we look back and think, if only

[C]

we had that is TR is true. But Gordon Brown had wanted to be Prime Minister basically ever since he lost the leadership to Tony Blair in 1994. So naturally everyone assumed that when he did become Prime Minister, he would have a plan of what he wanted to do with the office. And it soon became very clear that there was no plan.

[B]

Arguably, in comparison with Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham gets a marginally better inheritance. We've seen reasonable, in fact surprising economic figures over the last few weeks that I think weren't expected. Inflation, gdp, exc, etc, two big meetings, one of which I think he's going to be heading up Andy Burnham if he does get the coronation and that this is the renegotiation with the eu, although apparently they're thinking about whether they need to shift the date. And the other one, which presumably Keir Starmer will use as his swan song, is NATO and that defence spending review. He'll have to make his mind up on that. Again, one of his parting shots, forgive the pun, but I think that Burnham is better placed now than Starmer was two years ago to actually enable Britain to feel like it might be in a slightly better place come the next election. And that's what about this?

[C]

You can't govern by vibes and he's very much seen as the vibey Prime Minister at the moment. You have to have a plan of what you want to do in all sorts of different areas before you come into, into office. And he's shown no, no significant plan at the moment. I, I, if you are, you ask me what his view is on any given issue and I probably couldn't tell you. And that says a lot for, I mean, you and I live and breathe politics, or certainly I live and breathe politics, possibly a bit more than you do. But if I can't articulate what he really believes in, apart from himself and Manchester, then I think the country might have a problem. Yes, he may all make us feel a bit better and there's a lot to be said for that. And I think he may be very good presentationally, but where's the beef? I mean, that's the question I asked on the podcast a couple of weeks ago. And okay, he's been fighting a by election, so you could say, well, he may have used the time to sort of draft up some policies, but what does he believe in? Social care for example, where he was the person who launched a review on social care when he was Health Secretary. Didn't have time to implement it, but he must have views on that. But we don't know what they are. Do we know whether he thinks the fiscal rules should be loosened? Do we know that he even knows what they are? After that interview with Victoria Derbyshire, do we know what he thinks about NATO and defence spending? We don't. And I just hope that he does know what he thinks, because otherwise we're in for a repeat performance.

[B]

I think crucially, in a way that Starmer isn't. He's more collegiate, which is why we've seen West Streeting on the right of the party step in behind him. And that will make a big difference because you're going to get, once again, Labour and the government representing a broader church. The other thing that he's all about, and surely this is about. But not only Manchesterism or make a fielderism, he's about the politics of place, which you identified. Keir Starmer was unable to ever own because of that Islington vibe. So Andy can speak to the idea of levelling up first introduced by Boris Johnson. Okay. And these things are crucially important if we acknowledge that the Labour Party got voted in on a manifesto, which arguably still stands. Does it? If they're not going back.

[C]

This is the issue election. I mean, there are so many different consequences from what's going on at the moment. And in theory, the manifesto does stand, but when you have a new Prime Minister, they're obviously going to want to put their own stamp on things and there will be things in that manifesto that he did not agree with. Again, I don't know what they are, but we will probably soon find out. And then you have then. Then, of course, if he does do that, that plays into the hands of those who think that there should be a general election, which Farage is calling for. I mean, rather predictably, in many ways. Interestingly, Kebbi Beetenock has been a bit more reticent on that. Just as an aside, I was supposed to be doing a phone in with Kemi tonight and you can imagine how gutted I am to be on holiday this week, that I'm not actually going to be on the radio. But anyway, I'll have to drown my sorrows in by watching football, so I don't know the answer to that question. And now you've got Mike Tapp, the Home Office Minister, saying that he believes that there should now be legislation to say to. To prevent this Constant stream of Prime Ministers, which I think is a ridiculous idea. It shows a fundamental lack of understanding of the British constitution. Now, I'm not suggesting that the British Constitution can't be changed, but to suggest that you should legislate to stop a Prime Minister being toppled by their party, I just think is for the birds.

[B]

Two things. I know that we're mainly about politics today, but I have dug up because I was moved by Keir Starmer's speech. If only he could have been that human for the last two years, we might not be turfing him out on his ear, telling him that he's the most unpopular Prime Minister that's ever stepped across the threshold of number 10. I've got a few quotes from previous resignation speeches from Prime Ministers. And because you consider yourself the political guru of all time, I'm going to test you publicly, potentially expose you. Let's see, that's coming up in just a second. And also, I do, I know you're going to hate me, but I just want to go down the Brexit road, if we May, on the 10th anniversary, because there's really interesting polling around where Britain sat on the issue of the EU before that Bloomberg speech. Guess what? Most of us, well over 90% of us, didn't give a shit. It's a fabricated division. And that, I think is one of the reasons why I hate Brexit.

[C]

Well, I'll have some interesting things to say on that, but I've also got some interesting polling which the Observer Commission from YouGov and which, because it didn't turn out to have the result that they wanted, they've sat on and not published. So we'll do that in the last bit of the podcast and then take a few questions. But I've also, I want to put to bed this myth that Britain is ungovernable because we've had so many different Prime Ministers in the last 10 years. This is, if you look at British history, nothing unusual. It's unusual in the last century because the last time this happened was in the 1920s. But it is not unusual if you go back in history. In fact, it's happened more times than even I thought. We'll come on to that in just a moment.

[A]

When you're a maintenance engineer in a beverage manufacturing plant, you keep production lines moving and quality on track because there is no room for slowdowns. With Grainger's vast selection of high quality motors, sensors, belts and hard to find parts, you can get what you need fast and all in one place. So Nothing gets in the way of getting the job done. Call 1-800-GRAINGER clickranger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.

[B]

I'm very excited about now, intoning as one of our former Prime Ministers, the one thing you can guarantee about being a Prime Minister is you won't end up a Prime Minister. Very rare to die in office. In fact, has there ever been a Prime Minister who's died in office?

[C]

Spencer Percival did indeed.

[B]

I've forgotten the very significant Spencer Percival.

[C]

Well, because he was assassinated. He's the only British Prime Minister to have been assassinated, so I'm very surprised that you've forgotten about him.

[B]

Should have put him on my list. This isn't my strong part of history. I feel very exposed. Sweating slightly.

[C]

Let's go back and look at when there have been, say, a minimum of six prime ministers within 10 years. How many occasions do you think that's happened since Robert Walpole in 1721?

[B]

I don't think it's happened very often, but I know around the time of the Napoleonic Wars, I know that actually even around the time of Queen Anne, the late Stuarts, the glory. So that was when the parties were forming and you got quite a lot of disturbance and unsettled governance then. But we can't compare a disenfranchised electorate where just a couple of rotten boroughs, two rich guys dictated who was going to be the Prime Minister with today's quagmire. I don't think it's comparable in. Or I would have done a deeper dive into history.

[C]

Well, I have done a deeper dive into it. And let's start off. I mean, I'll just go through the initial ones because they're not as. As you say, they're not wholly comparable. But in the 1750s you had six prime ministers. In 10 years they wanted two of them were repeats. And then in the early 1800s you had again six. In the 18 oh, 1804-1812 you had William Pitt, Henry Addington again William Pitt, William Grenville, William Cavendish, Bent, Sir Percival. Then moving forward a bit from 1827, you had Lord Liverpool, George Canning, Frederick Robertson. Who. Who's Frederick Roberts? He had another name, Charles. Lord Can. Was he Canning? I don't know. The Duke of Wellington and Gray, Lord Melbourne, Duke of Wellington again and Robert Peel. So there were seven there. Then you move forward to the 1860s and you had Lord Stanley Palmerston, Lord John Russell, Lord Stanley again, Disraeli and Gladstone. So again six there. So you then you then go to seven prime ministers between 1885 and 1902. Gladstone, Salisbury, Gladstone, Salisbury, Gladstone, Roseberry, Salisbury. Now you can argue, well, are they really seven different ones? If you've got repeats. But it was seven different terms of office and then the last one where there were six was from 1922 to, to the early 1930s where you had Lloyd George, Bona Law, Baldwin, Ramsay, McDonald. Baldwin, Ramsay, McDonald. So what we are experiencing now is different in the sense that you've had seven different prime ministers. That, that is different. I, I grant you that, but I mean, it's not unusual. If you look at parliamentary democracies in Europe, Italy had a lot of this and we used to ridicule them for it. Of course, Belgium has had a lot of this over the years. Netherlands, not quite so much. Most other countries, not quite so much. But it is, it, it's, it's a facet of parliamentary democracy. If a Prime Minister loses the confidence, either of his own party or the House of Commons, that's what happens in a parliamentary democracy.

[B]

I agree, it is what happens. But, but our parliamentary democracy, our first pass, the post system, was always famous and was, I think lauded for the stable governments. Not everyone agreed with it, but the stable governments it threw up. Just to go back to two of those examples when there was particular friction, for example, in the wake of World War I, in the very dislocated 1920s, I think it's understandable that you had a certain degree of political dislocation. You just had the Enfranchisement act, partial enfranchisement of women, all of men were enfranchised. You're going to get repercussions from a change that big, especially in the wake of the Great War. If you go back to the Lord Liverpool era, the Napoleonic wars, prior to that, when you're at war, you're always going to get serious electoral turbulence. The point is here, where is the war? I know we've got a war with Russia and that does contribute, by the way. I do think the cost of living, the anemic economic conditions, the feeling of malaise serves and plays into this. But I think, and it's not a coincidence that we're talking about Keir Starmer resigning over the summer, looking down the barrel of the 10th anniversary of Brexit, which by the way, isn't a war, it was a self inflicted, I believe, wound. And one of the reasons I believe that is because the polling suggested that prior to the Bloomberg speech, was it 2013 or 2014 that David Cameron first floated the idea of an in or out from the EU. Only 2% of the population placed that as one of the main electoral issues that they cared about. 2% of the population, Ian. And now if you poll people, well over 60% have a calcified Brexit or Remainer attitude. That is a tribalism that we injected into the veins of our political discourse.

[C]

Well, I agree with you to an extent, because I remember writing at the time, when I was doing speeches around different Conservative organizations around the country, say, between 2005 and 2012, and every single speech I gave you could be guaranteed that the question session after the speech would be dominated by questions about Europe at every single event. And I probably did in that period, maybe, I don't know, between 50 and 100 different events. So it was always an issue that was more relevant to Conservative Party members than it was to the wider electorate. And when polling companies did polls of the wider electorate, Euro Europe never featured in the top 10 issues that people were concerned about. So you're right that it was made an issue by David Cameron, part mainly because of party management, and he decided that the way to cauterize the wound of Europe was to have a referendum. Now, again, we can. I mean, I don't remember feeling particularly strongly at the time that there should be a referendum. I thought there should have been one over the Lisbon Treaty, whenever that was, because I think that was making a constitutional change. But I don't remember arguing for a referendum at the time. I understood why he did it, but he did it because he thought it was inevitable that he would win it now, what a mistake that was. And he. He will forever be associated with that Brexit referendum. So I think you're right that the Brexit referendum triggered off the political uncertainty that we've experienced over the last 10 years. I think it's stretching it a bit to blame the resignation of Keir Starmer on Brexit. I think you could. You can blame Brexit for the resignation of Theresa May, in part Boris Johnson, but there were other issues afoot there. Well, I mean, I'm not even sure we. We need to talk about Liz Truss in this context. It's been something in the background, but I think I. I think the resignation of Keir Starmer can be laid. I mean, if Brexit has any impact on the resignation of Keir Starmer, I would say it's probably about 5%.

[B]

I think what kiss, what Brexit unleashed was a tribalism, was a black or a white A yes or a no, pitting individuals, families, politicians against each other. And I think that has had a long term legacy and I think, and we can argue this till the cows come.

[C]

I agree with you.

[B]

But I also, I also think that it has had impact on our economy and I know that Brexit is never agree with that and I know that there's endless arguments of course about the impact of. Yeah, the impact of Brexit.

[C]

Of course it's had an impact on the economy. There have been some negative impacts on the economy and there have been some positive impacts on the economy. Michael Gove wrote a brilliant piece the other day about some of the positive things which I now can't remember what he wrote, but there's that book 75 Brexit benefits. It hasn't. I know, I know you think it's been all one way traffic, all relentlessly negative, but that simply not the case. So I mean, even I would probably concede that it's had a slightly negative effect in terms if, if you just judge it in terms of gdp. But it hasn't been the economic disaster that was forecast by people like you in advance of it.

[B]

Again, I think that I would counter that with. It depends what statistics you pull from. There's a reason why Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer, who are right now in charge of the economy, are frantically peddling towards Europe. There's a reason why Wes Streeting said when he was considering throwing his hat in the ring that actually we need to relook at our relationship with Europe. And I think what's interesting is the fudge that Andy Burnham has served over the question of Europe. I don't think this generation of politicians is going to take us back into Europe, but I think they're all cognizant of the damage that it's done for Andy Burnham. He's ended up being a winner because of it, I would argue. The other thing is, if we're talking about the politics of. Of place, that too has been driven by a Brexit narrative where it's globalism, I. E. Remainers, bourgeois islington etc, versus Those people who are more rooted and their identity is more rooted in where they live. The politics of everywhere versus the politics of nowhere. And again, Andy Burnham is the winner from that.

[C]

Let's also. And I haven't. I should, I should have got the details here, but there was a poll that the observer did where, which they clearly wanted to publish this Sunday to prove that there's so many people that want to go back into the eu. But the results of that poll did not fit their narrative. And I think it was something like 52% of people do not want the whole EU argument reopened again. Or it was. I can't remember what the exact question was, but all of the results went counter to the narrative that there is a clear majority of people wanting another referendum to go back in now. Now, I think if you did hold another referendum right now, you may well get that kind of result. I mean, it would be a. Can you imagine the campaign? It would be. I mean, it would be awful. So I don't think that's going to happen. I don't think Andy Burnham will go down that road. But if West Streeting becomes Chancellor of the Exchequer, there is absolutely no doubt, and I suspect there will have been discussions between him and Andy Burnham about this. As to what we're Streeting would want to do. I mean, I don't think he would. I mean, he's made very clear that he would maybe want to have some sort of new arrangement with the eu. And in. In theory, I've got no great objection to that. As long as we're not rule takers and as long as we don't have to pay billions of pounds in, I'm quite happy to extend a free trade agreement. But I. I think if he. If they suddenly had a policy of effectively rejoining the single market, even if it wasn't described as that, well, that will be manna from heaven for Nigel Farage.

[B]

I don't think that the country's ready to go back to war with the EU over a New Deal or a re entry because it was too scarring, it was too time consuming, it was too costly on every level, Ian. And we're still seeing it play out today. I repeat, that's why we ended up, by the way, with Starmer, because he was the safety candidate. Don't you remember? Oh, Boris. And the charisma and the risk. Let's have managers and process. And so we got the technocrat first in Rishi. That didn't work. And then in Keir Starmer again, direct products of the Brexit calamity. Now, I'm going to give you a couple of resignation speeches and you're going to place them for us, okay? I can't do an accent. And you know, I love doing an accent, but I can't do an accent. When I returned to this country a month ago, I hoped that my health had been sufficiently restored to enable me to carry out my objective. Lovely. Yes, Very good.

[C]

Give me, the year 1957.

[B]

I chose that one because a lot of people are saying that this bailout, this baleful war that America has chosen to fight and now basically has. Has lost in the contract that it's hammering out with Iran is as being compared all the time at the moment with Suez Canal and our defeat in 56, 57. Okay, here's another one for you. At the same time, in this country, we've been pushing forward a vast program of investment in infrastructure and skills and technology, the biggest for a century. Because if I have one insight into human beings, it is that genius and talent and enthusiasm and imagination are evenly distributed throughout the population.

[C]

Oh, my God. Well, you could have picked a better section of whichever one that was.

[B]

Can I give you more? I can give you a bit more

[C]

if you go on. A little bit more. I need a bit more of a clue.

[B]

The opportunity is not evenly distributed. And that's why we must keep leveling up, keep unleashing the potential of every part of the United Kingdom. And if we can do that in this country, we will be the most prosperous in Europe. Couple of clues there.

[C]

Yeah, I think it must be Boris.

[B]

It is Boris. Yes. July 2020.

[C]

Two out of two. Excellent. Carrie on.

[B]

Very good.

[C]

Okay.

[B]

I knew you'd enjoy this. Okay, wait a sec, let me get one from.

[C]

Had you not read that second bit, I might have said Atlee or Baldwin

[B]

did quite a lot resign over health. I couldn't find much for Harold Wilson. This was the. The. The sum total of Harold Wilson, who I think resigned twice, didn't he? I have not wavered.

[C]

Well, you've just told me who it is.

[B]

I know I'm not, because I don't expect you to be able to guess it from how small it is. I have not wavered in this decision, and it is irrevocable.

[C]

I love the way you mangle these words. That was Wilson in the last podcast. There were three occasions when I wanted to pick you up on words like that, and I thought, well, no, I just can't.

[B]

I'm an autodidact.

[C]

Are you educating myself?

[B]

Yeah, I am. Right, here we are next quote. Are you ready? Above all, it was a privilege to serve. And, yes, I love the job. Not for its prestige, its titles, its ceremony, which I do not love at all. No, I love the job for its potential to make this country I love fairer, more tolerant, more green, more democratic, more prosperous, and more just. Truly a Greater Britain.

[C]

That's quite difficult because, again, that's quite generic, isn't it. I'm thinking it's one of. It's either Theresa May, Liz Truss or Rishi Sung.

[B]

No, the green thing is a bit. The green thing does throw a bit because I think it parks it more prominently in recent times and it is quite a recent ex leader. I'll give you a clue. We've mentioned them in this pod.

[C]

Brown.

[B]

Yeah. Brian. 2010. Okay, now here's a real slam dunk for you at the end to conclude. Mercifully, there is time and hope. If we combine patience and courage, all deterrents will improve and gain authority during the next 10 years. By that time, the deterrent may well reach its acme and reap its final reward. The day may dawn when fair play, love for one's fellow men, respect for justice and freedom will enable tormented generations to march forth serene and triumphant from the hideous epoch in which we have to dwell. Meanwhile, while never flinch, never weary, never

[C]

despair, never in the field of human conflict. Yeah, that was. That was a pretty easy one, to be fair.

[B]

It was. That was Churchill in the 50s. This was his last speech to Parliament.

[C]

And you didn't include Maggie.

[B]

I did include Maggie. I did, but I thought you were getting quite cocky and I thought actually, I don't want you to get them all right? So that was really mean of me. But I will give you, characteristically, yeah, here we are. It's been a tremendous privilege to serve this country's Prime Minister wonderfully. Happy years. And I'm immensely grateful to the staff who have supported me so well. And may I also say a word of thanks to all the people who sent so many letters still arriving and for all the flowers.

[C]

See, I think you could do a bloody good Margaret Thatcher impression.

[B]

I could do quite a good.

[C]

No, that. That was sort of halfway there.

[B]

Thank you, Ian. From you, I'll take that as a compliment.

[C]

Well, indeed. Right, let's go to a break.

[A]

When you're a maintenance engineer in a beverage manufacturing plant, you keep production lines moving and quality on track because there is no room for slowdowns. With Grainger's vast selection of high quality motors, sensors, belts and hard to find parts, you can get what you need fast and all in one place. So nothing gets in the way of getting the job done. Call 1-800-GRAINGER clickranger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.

[B]

In case we get timed out, Ian, because I know you want to do it. Should they stay away? Should they go re Burnham's putative cabinet? But there are a Few questions. May I flag up a couple? This has been pressing from last week, BBC News west country residents urged to only fly World cup flags at home. You highlighted that last week. The Green Party were telling people they couldn't hang up flags in Bristol on lamp posts. This is. Is a response to that saying. I think Ian needs to correct himself after his comments regarding councils cancelling the hang of the flag. The councils have only asked people not to hang them from lamp posts and other public property. I don't remember this happening in any other World cup, so why should it happen in this one? He is right. I did look up the answer. Sorry, Highways Act.

[C]

How am I wrong there?

[B]

Because you, you took umbrage at people not being allowed to hang up flags on lamp posts.

[C]

Yeah. And they're not allowed to. So what? How was I wrong?

[B]

It's. It's not unusual to not be allowed to hang things on pieces of public property, the highways.

[C]

No council has ever stipulated that before. Why would they do it now?

[B]

Are you sure? Are you speaking with great authority in your big man voice?

[C]

No, I'm speaking in my. I know what I'm talking about voice.

[B]

Well, the highway at 98 says it's an offense to stick things on structures on a highway without the consent of the Highway Authority. So are you telling me that everything that's hung up has the consent?

[C]

No, I'm not, but I've never heard. All I'm saying is I've never heard of a council actually spelling that out before in the way that this council did, because they're a green lefty council who hate the England flag. End of story.

[B]

Tribally in. Bit tribal.

[C]

Yeah.

[B]

Anyway, did you notice, by the way, that Nigel Farah, as you mentioned, he's been calling for a general election. He wrote a big essay today. What paper was it published in? Can't remember. It must have been the Telegraph or something like that. And he said, oh, look how all the parties gang up against us in these by elections. Like bottom lip was seriously wobbling. Call me and my reform candidates. The idea that the whole of Britain is trying to block reform to an extent. That is what happened, by the way,

[C]

last week I just got asked to write an article for the Inewspaper on Nigel Farage and a general election and what his inner circle are thinking. And I'm thinking why they asked me to do this. I don't know what is inner circle of thinking. Anyway, I said I can't do it because I'm on holiday. I lost so much money by this thing being happening when I'm not at work.

[B]

I think you can do it. Of course you can do it. You'd probably write better because you've got down time and time to think.

[C]

No, I actually do. I am trying. Even though the highlights of my week have been going to the tip twice because we've, we've been mucking out the garage ready for your triumphant arrival on Saturday at our barbecue where we can basically put a lot of the rubbish that cluttering the rest of the house. So I've been doing that and I've been recording my audiobook, but I'm, I'm finding all of this quite restful and I don't want, want. I mean, the only work related thing I'm doing is this podcast which I also don't particularly as work. So I don't want to have to sit for two or three hours because I would have to do a lot of research for that subject and talk to a lot of people. I just don't want to do it.

[B]

It's probably a good decision. I think if I was your counsellor or your cognitive therapist, I'd say, you know, there's nothing like a big boy.

[C]

Do I need one?

[B]

Well, we can come to that on Saturday. Apparently Dan is going to come to your barbecue.

[C]

Well, I feel very honored.

[B]

Well, you should feel honored because I've sat really awkwardly at wed weddings next to an empty place because Dan just hasn't come at the last minute. And it makes me dye my very quintessentially English etiquette orientated childhood baked into my inner DNA. I cannot get over.

[C]

He, he will have a lot in common with John because John is very much like that and doesn't like to go to any social occasions that I organize and often pulls out at the last minute, leaving me to have to explain in a slightly embarrassed way. So I, I get that it's the

[B]

idea that somehow you're responsible for your spouse's manners and I've always found that incredibly challenging. The other thing that I find challenging is that people are then so thrilled because I've disappeared off the camera. I'll come back in a minute. People are so thrilled because Dan's appeared and I'm like, why aren't you thrilled that I appear every single time? You know, somehow, why am I not good enough? Why does my husband, who never bothers, who doesn't send you a Christmas present, who wouldn't know one end of a tube tub of Sellotape from another end and has never stuck A stamp on an envelope. Why does he get special preorders when he arrives and I don't? And I find that really hurtful and annoying. And yes, by the way, Ian, it is a bit gendered.

[C]

Oh, yeah. But I. I have full sympathy with what you've just said.

[B]

Good. I'm glad you have sympathy because it's really painful and really galling. So you can be pleased to see Dan at the weekend, but pleased be more pleased to see me. Me.

[C]

I'm always pleased to see you. Anyway, we'll have a full report on what happened at the barbecue on next Monday's episode. That's assuming that you and I still talking.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

Remember.

[B]

Well, we'll do the admin off air, but I. I'm going on a cruise, so we have to record it early. But you won't have a hangover because you don't drink.

[C]

When are you going on the cruise?

[B]

On the Monday on the 29th. This. Yes, it has been a nightmare. Yes. I've tried to get them to move the travel date for Lordy and. And they wouldn't and couldn't and so. But we'll discuss that anon. You want to do who's in and who's out in the Cabinet. I'm going to be out of the pod soon if I go cruising.

[C]

Corey, if he's actually got this far listening to the podcast, will now be playing a bit of the Clash. Should I stay or should I go? Let's start off with Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy.

[B]

He was standing outside. He was one of the appara cheeks in the starboard administration. There you are. I said that so you could have a chance to correct me and I think that was brave of him and maybe he believes the writing's on the wall anyway. And I'm not sure he will be. I'm not sure he will still be Justice Secretary at the end of all of this.

[C]

He certainly won't be Deputy Prime Minister and I would imagine that he won't be in the Cabinet. I. I've got no particular reason for saying that, but I think if. If Andy Burnham wants to be, bring, say, 10 or 11 of his own people into the Cabinet while having a bit of continuity, I think he can probably lose the services of David Lammy. Rachel Reeves, I. I just think is toast. I think she'll be gone completely. I don't think she'll have another job. I think they'll get rid of her.

[B]

She's politically tone deaf and has been found to be wanting and I agree she's out. Yvette Cooper is harder to call.

[C]

I agree. I think that is harder to call. Again, I would say that she doesn't really bring an awful lot if she stays. I suspect she would get a more junior role, but I doubt whether she'd want to do that. So I think he may offer her something which she will find that she needs to turn down. I think if you're the foreign, if you're the new Prime Minister, you need a Foreign Secretary that has a bit, bit of experience. I mean, I wouldn't rule out Keir Starmer being the new Foreign Secretary. I think he may feel, I think it depends on how really personal humiliated he feels by Andy Burnham. But I, I could see that happening.

[B]

But there are also only saying that informed. You're saying that informed on Rishi Sunak re employing David Cameron in that role.

[C]

No, I'm not. I think the one bit of Keir Starmer's premiership which you could say on balance was positive was his record in foreign affairs. So it's possible that that might happen. But I, I, I'm not sure that Andy Burnham will kind of want the competition because there's also rumors, by the way, that Keir Starmer will stand down as an MP almost immediately after he finishes being Prime Minister, like Tony Blair did. Again, I've got no insights to whether that's likely or not. So Yvette Cooper, I would say out of the Foreign Office, Shabana Mahmoud, I think will stay at the Home Office.

[B]

Hey, she'll certainly stay.

[C]

Pat McFadden I think will stay in the government, possibly stay at work and work in Pensions because no one else wants a job. Darren Jones is an interesting one because there have been rumors that he might be the Starmer candidate to avoid a coronation and stand against Andy Burnham. If he's persuaded to do that, he's a fool. And I don't believe Darren Jones is a fool. So I think he will get another job, possibly in the sort of middle ranks. I don't think he, he won't be Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister, that is certain.

[B]

What about John he Neely, the freshly resigned Defence Secretary? I think he's a very safe pair of hands and he's distanced himself from Starmer.

[C]

I would put him back at Defense.

[B]

Okay, very possibly that will happen. We've put Wes Streeting already in as Chancellor, who will take over as well. Hang on a minute. Douglas Alexander.

[C]

Well, Douglas Alexander and Andy Burnham were in cabinet together. So I think it all depends on what their personal relationship is like. I don't think the loses a huge amount if Douglas Alexander is moved, if you want to show a sign that you're a new broom and promote people from the 24 intake and I mean, there aren't that many in Scotland but enough to choose from, I think that's probably where he will go. So. And again, people like, then you get into the sort of middle ranks of the Cabinet. Bridget Phillipson, Peter Kyle, Liz, Ken.

[B]

Stop there. She's the one I was holding out for. She really matters to me. Bridget Phillips, she's the one.

[C]

But I don't think, I don't think Andy Burnham knows that. To be fair, I think Bridget Phillipson has done enough to warrant staying. Whether it'll be in that position, don't know. But he can't change every single Cabinet Minister. I mean, that, that I think would lead to a bit of chaos and they, they keep saying we won't have the Tory chaos. They're doing a pretty good job in emulating it. So I, I, I think some of them like her will stay. James Murray at Health, I think, I think is probably on the danger list. Steve Reed, very close ally of Kia Starmer. I think he's on the danger list. Peter Kyle, who I really rate, I think that he's on the danger list because he said a few disobliging things about anti Burnham in the past. Liz Kendall, she.

[B]

Well, she came out very strongly for K because they've pushed through this anti

[C]

Social, I think, I think she's toast. Lisa Nandy will definitely get a promotion because she's been very, very upfront in supporting Andy Burnham. Hillary Ben, safe, pair of hands, nice guy. But again, wouldn't, I don't think Andy Burnham would lose a lot of sleep over getting rid of Hillary Ben. So there's quite a few positions. Johnny Reynolds, the Chief Whip, he certainly won't be in that position. But he could come back in another position in, in the, in the Cabinet. And then of course you'll, he'll bring in Louise Haig because she was his campaign manager in Maker Free Field. Angela Rayner, I think will make a return. Not quite sure what job he'd give to her. Possibly Deputy Prime Minister again.

[B]

I mean, is it Lucy Powell who's the leader?

[C]

Lucy Powell, I think she will come back here.

[B]

She'll come back. What about your friend Jackie? She's Skills Minister at the moment. She might even get a better job. He'll want to keep her running the Lords, won't he as well?

[C]

I would have thought I'VE got no. Well, she's not running the laws, Angela Smith does, so that.

[B]

But I know, but you know what I mean, she's a big hand.

[C]

Well, again, I mean, he served in cabinet with Jackie, so I don't, I mean, I've got no inside knowledge on this. I don't know that they've ever been particularly close. I mean, I remember on the podcast we used to joke about his wonderful eyelashes but, I mean, I don't remember Jackie saying anything particularly disobliging about him.

[B]

But who knows, you say that he's not the sort of individual. Jill, that one is hugely disobliging about because up until Manchester he was a bit Nair, wasn't it? I mean, he tried to be leader a few times and everyone was like, gosh, really, Andy, can you box, boy?

[C]

He's a bit sort of hail fellow well met, isn't he? I mean, I don't think he's somebody that goes out of their way to, to make enemies. I, I think he, he, he likes to be liked. He's a people pleaser, nothing wrong with that. I, I would class both of us in that category as well. So I'm not going to criticize someone else. I mean, who, who wants to be hated? You're a bit of an odd character if you really don't give a. About who likes you or not. But as Prime Minister, you can't, you can't be a good Prime Minister without smashing a few eggs and it'll be. I think the formation of his cabinet is going to tell us how good he is at doing that sort of thing as to who he is willing, willing and able to offend. There'll be a lot of people that want. That will think Andy Burnham owes them something for getting him into this position, but whether he's in a position to repay all those debts, I'm not so sure.

[B]

It's a nightmare job. It's extraordinary just how many people want it and from reading through those old speeches, how many people are broken by losing it. Almost always there's tears at the podium. The one I didn't read that was David Cameron's of course, where again, he had that emotional crack in his voice. The one time when you can and be human and inject the human into politics, by the way, when it's too late.

[C]

Yeah. I mean, you also didn't mention the Theresa May one because she really did break down at the end of it, didn't she? And look, it's. You were right what you said at the beginning, when you become Prime Minister, you know that it's in all likelihood going to end in tears. You're either going to lose an election. Actually, here's a good quiz question for you. Who was the last Prime Minister to win an election. Election and then lose office at an election.

[B]

Last Prime Minister to win an election

[C]

and then lose office.

[B]

Well, I. E. They didn't win their constituency seat as an end.

[C]

No, no, no, they lost. They lost the next election because most Prime Ministers in recent memory have resigned for all sorts of different reasons, but they haven't been kicked out. So like Tony Blair won an election

[B]

but resigned, not Brown, because Brown, Brown never won the election. He was coronated. Major was coronated, but went on to win his first election. He won his first election but then he lost the next one. So. So Major.

[C]

No, no, he doesn't count because he became Prime Minister by not winning an election.

[B]

So in other words, somebody who stayed in for one.

[C]

Yeah, Edward Heath, he's the last one. Matthew Hobart told me that.

[B]

Alyssa, do you know, I was thinking of Starmer, just final thoughts today and absolutely in a very conventional sort of 2.2 way, crediting Vic and his wonderful, beautiful children. You know, tears, etc. The teenage kids must be like having more of dad around. That's a bummer. Teenager wants their dad around.

[C]

I thought it was unfortunate that the teenage kids weren't there with the mother because Gordon Brown, he left Downing street with his kids. Young, very young children walking with him and Sarah and I thought that was a lovely touch and I. Maybe they'll do that the day that he leaves. Maybe they will appear because of course he's really kept them hidden all of this time very successfully and to be

[B]

fair, I think they're quite significant exam ages and this is exam season. They've probably got bigger fish to fry than their dad's own political psychodrama, to be honest. He's yesterday's man. They're getting on with their own futures. But just quickly, to compare Starmer with that, you know, I can go back to my bountiful and beautiful family. Edward Heath, of course, famously single, loved his yacht, he had no family to go back to and he sat there like a sort of sulking schoolboy scowling at Margaret Thatcher for, what was it, the next two decades. He would have actually benefited, I feel, from a husband, I mean a wife, I mean somebody.

[C]

Well, I think it is important that you have somebody that effectively can support you in really difficult times like this. I mean, I can remember. I mean it's Not. Not comparing myself to this, but when I lost the election in North Norfolk, had I been on my own, I would have found that very difficult. I mean, I remember the night of the count, holding it all together. I made the speech of my life as a concession speech and then got in the car afterwards to go to the. Effectively the wake with my party workers. And I just sat there howling my eyes out and John just sat there, dropped driving and said absolutely nothing, because there was nothing he could say, but just the fact that he was there was really important.

[B]

Just quickly, on a personal note, because I know we've timed out and I haven't got to the questions that I had flagged, but do you think your partner loves you more in your hour of despair or your hour of success? Because I'm absolutely certain that Dan finds me more bearable when I broke than when I'm bountiful.

[C]

I'm not sure I know the answer to that question. I mean, we're. John is not somebody who expresses emotions very easily or very often. So I don't. I honestly don't know the answer to that question. I mean, I know that he. If I am successful in something, he's pleased, but he doesn't feel the need to share it. It's like, I'm sure when I have my book launch, my autobiography, I doubt whether he'll come.

[B]

Yes, you are very lovable, Ian, but I think perhaps in your more crestfallen moments, and obviously I've not seen you on your knees, darling, you've been incredibly successful. But you. There's something quite boyish about you when you're a bit broken. And I definitely, when I go back to the. Weirdly, the best time in my marriage, the most loving time, was when I was having loads of being a sort of Queen Anne, having loads of miscarriages and dead babies and stuff. Dan kind of, I think, felt my pain and he felt perhaps more seen by me because my need for him was greater. But I do think it's interesting, my little brother said, in the wake of him being elected and as an MSP, oh, people love success. I've had 500 messages or whatever, and I'm actually not sure that everybody does love a successful person. I think sometimes people are more lovable in their hour of need. Certainly Keir Starmer was his most lovable today. And that's not difficult, is it?

[C]

I don't think I would use that word to describe him today. I mean, I thought it was a typical Keir Starmer appearance, in a way. Apart from the slight emotion at the end, I thought otherwise. There's a. He claimed credit for a lot of things but there was no mention obviously of the things that he got completely wrong, of which there were many. I mean, I, I have no hesitation in saying that. I do think he's one of the worst Prime Ministers this country has had. Had. I would put him slightly above Liz Truss and probably on a par with Theresa May and that's, that's not lavishing him with any, any praise at all. He's right down, he's right down in the bottom quartile of Prime Ministers.

[B]

Yeah, but again, that's totally on your perspective. I go back to the fact that tomorrow is a very significant anniversary and for me, the Vandals will go down in history as individuals.

[C]

Do you think, do you think was a better Prime Minister than David Cameron?

[B]

I think he did less damage. I think he said today he's left the country stronger and fairer. And I don't think that could be said of Boris Johnson's legacy. It certainly couldn't be said of David Cameron's legacy.

[C]

I think it could. I mean, it depends how you define a legacy, doesn't it? Because I think there were many things that David Cameron did that were actually very good. I thought he was a good Prime Minister and we can argue the toss about whether he should have done the Brexit referendum or not. But on the day he resigned as Prime Minister Minister, Britain was a better country than the day he came into office. And I think that has to be the litmus test. And I don't think Britain is a better country now than when Keir Starmer came into office.

[B]

I would argue the exact opposite, that given what was facing us down the barrel, courtesy of his cavalier hubris, David Cameron left us with a legacy and with, more importantly, a future. That was going to be extraordinarily difficult. It was literally like he sent us out to sea on choppy waters and then he got off the boat, hopped into a lifeboat and inflated his vessel chest and off he went, whistling, bloody whistling.

[C]

Just got another email from Al Jazeera English. Would I be do a 30 minute interview with them tomorrow on what's happened today? Sadly, the answer is no.

[B]

Right, you enjoy doing that. It gives you a sense just to

[C]

prove, just to prove that I don't say yes to the opening of an envelope. Right, we have to go because I've got to go to take another load to the dump with John. You've got to go and tend to your family. Flock and we will see you again towards the end of the week. Unless something momentous happens in the meantime. But I've enjoyed this podcast. Have you?

[B]

It has been fun. Yeah. I do love you very much.

[C]

It's been a joy. Goodbye. Oh and by the way, we will do lots of questions on the end of week podcast, so if you want to email us, you can do so where Politics meets [e-mail] or leave a comment question on the Where Politics Meets History Instagram feed. Goodbye. This has been a global production.

[A]

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