146. Social Careless Whisper

Summary

Podcast Summary: Where Politics Meets History – Ep. 146: Social Careless Whisper

Host: Iain Dale
Guest Co-Host: Natasha Clark (standing in for Dr Tessa Dunlop)
Date: July 28, 2026
Theme: Examining the week's biggest political news through a historical lens, with a focus on the challenges of social care and the debut weeks of Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

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Overview of the Episode

In this rich, fast-paced episode, Iain Dale is joined by Dame Natasha Clark (political editor and recurring guest) as Tessa Dunlop is briefly away. With intelligence and trademark banter, they dissect the news of Andy Burnham’s early premiership, the persistent challenge of reforming social care, party politics and polling shifts, plus lighter reflections on weddings, marathons, and coping with modern anxieties. The conversation fuses current events, historical precedents, and sharp personal observations, making for a timely and engaging listen.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Opening Banter: Personal Updates and Historical Parallels

Timestamps: 00:05 – 10:22

• Iain quizzes Natasha about “ASMR” and jokes about its meaning, setting a playful tone.
• Discussion on Natasha’s recent trip to Pompeii and the layered nature of history and politics (“Literally where politics meets history” – Natasha, 03:19).
• Book recommendations for learning about Pompeii, including Mary Beard and Robert Harris.
• Reflections on running marathons, aging, and physical resilience, linking personal experiences to the political theme of “resilience.”
  • “What marathons teach you, it's the one thing that I say is resilience.” – Natasha, 08:40
• Iain shares sobering insights from a Buxton Festival panel with generals, discussing prospects of war and national preparedness.
  • “Each of these generals basically put the fear of God into the audience saying there is going to be a war. And we've all got to contemplate...how prepared are we?” – Iain, 07:33

2. Switching to Politics: The Burnham Bounce

Timestamps: 15:11 – 26:10

• The start of Andy Burnham’s second week as Prime Minister (“Second week syndrome” – Natasha, 15:21).
• Review of Burnham’s first week policy announcements:
  • £2 bus fare freeze, VAT cut on energy bills, business rates cuts for pubs, creation of "Number 10 North."
  • Burnham’s focus on deeper issues: social care, further devolution, and youth unemployment (NEETs crisis).
• Discussion on welfare:
  • Comparison between PIP benefits and part-time work for young people, referencing a Times article.
  • Natasha notes the complexity and difficulty of both accessing and reforming PIP.
  • Iain observes, “Burnham seems to be quite intent on cutting the welfare bill...But this is not going to go down with the very people that made him Prime Minister, is it?” (17:36)
  • Natasha points to expected parliamentary backlash to welfare reform.
  • “Every Prime Minister starts off incredibly popular usually, and then it all slides downhill from there for most people.” – Natasha, 19:13

3. Party Politics & Polling: Labour, Reform, Greens, and Public Sentiment

Timestamps: 19:31 – 25:04

• New polling (More in Common): Labour overtakes Reform for the first time since Burnham's ascension—Labour at 28%, Reform at 24%, Tories at 22%, Lib Dems at 12%.
• Green party polling struggles attributed to local election scrutiny, internal strife, and Andy Burnham pulling some left-leaning voters back.
  • Iain: “What do you put the decline of the Greens down to?” (21:09)
  • Natasha: “The increased scrutiny...and Andy Burnham, he's more left wing than Keir Starmer.”
• Andy Burnham’s "media comfort" compared to Keir Starmer:
  • “He looks comfortable in himself, whereas Keir Starmer never quite did.” – Natasha, 24:39
  • “He does carry off a black T-shirt quite well. Which for a 55-year-old man, that's not a bad look.” – Iain, 25:04
• Reflects on the likelihood and timing of a general election, hinting at growing speculation for a 2027 contest.

4. Social Care: Lessons from History & The Political Challenge

Timestamps: 26:26 – 42:49

• In-depth discussion on the “third rail” of British politics: reforming adult social care.
• Recap of historical failed reform efforts:
  • The 2017 May government “dementia tax” disaster and widespread backlash.
  • Long history of piecemeal approaches; repeated commissions and green papers (e.g., Andy Burnham’s cross-party talks as Health Secretary).
  • “No politician has touched it since Theresa May. It's awful.” – Natasha, 28:24
• The funding conundrum:
  • A National Care Service similar to the NHS would require an estimated £18.5 billion/year.
  • Debate: Should this be funded through direct taxation, reallocating local authority budgets, or cuts elsewhere?
  • Natasha: “I think this £18 billion is an incredibly conservative estimate. I do not think that it will be that cheap. Absolutely not.” (42:13)
• The moral debate over personal contributions, inheritance, and “unfairness” between self-funders and the state.
• Natasha asks, “Do you think that the public will stomach additional taxes to pay for a social care levy? Because I think this is exactly what Andy Burnham is now going to have to grapple with.” (40:37)
• Tension with opposition: Kemi Badenoch’s letter vowing not to support tax hikes or increased borrowing for care.

5. Public Engagement & Policy Communication

Timestamps: 42:49 – 44:34

• Discussion on the political importance of effective communicators:
  • “With Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting, you've got two people there who actually can communicate, who can sell something to the public in a way that Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves never could.” – Iain, 42:49
• Importance of building public consent for big policy changes like defence spending and social care, including musings on potential taxes or levies.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On resilience and preparedness

  • “What marathons teach you, it's the one thing that I say is resilience.” – Natasha Clark, 08:40
  • “Each of these generals basically put the fear of God into the audience saying there is going to be a war.” – Iain Dale, 07:33

• On social care reform and political risk

  • “No politician has touched it since Theresa May. It's awful.” – Natasha Clark, 28:24
  • “If you introduced a National Care Service equivalent to the National Health Service, I'm told it would cost somewhere around 18 and a half billion pounds a year… Would people stomach that?” – Iain Dale, 31:45
  • “Do you think that the public will stomach an additional taxes to pay for a social care levy? Because I think this is exactly what Andy Burnham is now going to have to grapple with.” – Natasha Clark, 40:37

• Politics and polling

  • “He looks comfortable in himself, whereas Keir Starmer never quite did.” – Natasha, 24:39
  • “He does carry off a black T-shirt quite well.” – Iain, 25:04
  • “The fact that they are 4 percentage points clear of Reform will absolutely delight them. So, you know, as the Burnham bounce is bouncing…” – Natasha, 21:09

• On the challenge of selling reform

  • “With Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting, you've got two people there who actually can communicate, who can sell something to the public…” – Iain, 42:49

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Timestamps for Significant Segments

• Opening banter and historical reflections: 00:05 – 10:22
• Andy Burnham’s first weeks and welfare discussion: 15:11 – 19:31
• Polling shifts and party strategies: 19:31 – 25:04
• Social care policy history and present dilemma: 26:26 – 42:49
• On policy communication and public consent: 42:49 – 44:34
• Closing reflections and Fringe discussion: 44:34 – end

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Closing Thoughts

The episode captures the complexity and urgency of social care reform in Britain—showing how deeply history shapes current challenges. Through wit and candor, Iain Dale and Natasha Clark illustrate how new leaders like Andy Burnham face both policy headaches and the pressure to sell tough reforms to a wary public. Alongside serious analysis, the episode is peppered with relatable anecdotes and lively debate, ensuring an engaging way to catch up with the political week and to see, once again, how history never quite stays in the past.

Transcript

[Natasha Clark]

This is a global production.

[Ian]

Normally, if people I know get sacked or they appointed to the Cabinet, I usually drop them a text saying either sorry or congratulations, shall we say? A couple of the texts I had back and all of the ones that sacked responded. A couple of them. I was quite surprised at how antsy they were.

[Natasha Clark]

Every Prime Minister starts off incredibly popular, usually, and then start. It all slides downhill from. From there for most people. Right.

[Ian]

Why are you whispering to me?

[Natasha Clark]

Asmr.

[Ian]

I don't know what ASMR means. What does that stand for?

[Natasha Clark]

It's.

[Ian]

It's a young people.

[Natasha Clark]

It's a young people Internet thing.

[Ian]

Ian, what does it stand for?

[Natasha Clark]

It's. I would describe ASMR as sort of soothing whispering.

[Ian]

Oh, so it's not asshole shit, masturbation and rimming?

[Natasha Clark]

No, but that's really good to know. That's your first thought.

[Ian]

Autonomous Sensory Meridian Response. What does that even mean?

[Natasha Clark]

So it's essentially nice sounds that people use to soothe themselves. Is that right, Kiri? Is that fair?

[Ian]

Can I recommend to you, because I'm sure, doing your job, that there are moments when you do need to just, like, relax and chill out after a difficult day being interviewed by prats like me. There's a Japanese group called Sens, and it's S E N S dot and there's. It's just instrumental stuff. It's very sort of new. Is it new age or new era music? And a city of silence. Look that up and listen to it and you'll be hooked. And you want to download everything they've ever done, they've done a lot.

[Natasha Clark]

Silence.

[Ian]

I recommend that to all the listeners too. Now, in case you didn't know, and if you didn't know, it's because you don't listen to lbc. And shame on you. That is the voice of Dame Natasha Clark.

[Natasha Clark]

I've got a damehood again.

[Ian]

So nice you are. Who is standing in for the absent Tessa Dunlop. She is in Dieppe. Can you believe? Have you ever been to Dieppe?

[Natasha Clark]

I think I may have been to Dieppe. Is it northern France?

[Ian]

It's northern France on the coast. Very nice coast.

[Natasha Clark]

Battlefields. I think I've been there as part of the Battlefields tour.

[Ian]

And so she's there. I think she's actually coming back today. She only went on like Thursday, so I don't know why it's such a short break. Maybe it's because she and Dan, her husband, just can't.

[Natasha Clark]

Just can't what? Spend more than four days together.

[Ian]

Exactly. That's exactly Right. How did you work that one out? We'll see if she listens to this one. She won't, so she'll be back on Thursday. So what I thought we'd do today is do a little bit of a Burnham recap and look forward and then talk about the history of social care and what he might do about it, because he's making a big speech on Wednesday and anything else that takes our fancy.

[Natasha Clark]

Yes, that sounds great. And obviously, yeah, you also wanted to mention some of these polls that came out today, which are really interesting if they hold, essentially showing that potentially Labour ahead of reform for the first time since.

[Ian]

Before we get into that, Vernon became promised. We liked A little bit of fluff at the beginning.

[Natasha Clark]

Go on. A little bit of fluff.

[Ian]

How was your weekend, Natasha? How does a political editor spend their weekends? Because I imagine most weekends are disturbed.

[Natasha Clark]

Most weekends are disturbed. It's always the way someone's asking me about a press release or a number 10 op note or are we signed up to this tomorrow? But actually, I've been in Pompeii for a few days. Pompous Cay. Yeah. Yeah.

[Ian]

Wow.

[Natasha Clark]

Literally where politics meets history.

[Ian]

Yeah.

[Natasha Clark]

So there's a lot of politics and a lot of history there.

[Ian]

I went there when I was 18.

[Natasha Clark]

It was really nice. I really enjoyed it. Spent a bit of time there. Spent a bit of time in Sorrento. Climbed Vesuvius. Well, I climbed Vesuvius. I didn't climb it. Got a bus up most of it, so it doesn't really count.

[Ian]

Did you. Are you allowed to look into the crater anymore?

[Natasha Clark]

We did look into the crater, yes. So it hasn't erupted since 1944.

[Ian]

It is an active volcano.

[Natasha Clark]

It is an active volcano. It still technically is active, but it hasn't been. Essentially, there has been no sensor of activity for quite a long time. So you can get a bus up to the top and you can do what's called. I think it's called the Crater Loop or something. You can basically walk. Walk around the entire of the crater and have a little peek in.

[Ian]

Did you get a real sense of history wandering around Pompeii? Because it is. It's so. I mean, I. Okay. I was 18. We went on a Cosmos coach tour, six of us in the sixth form.

[Natasha Clark]

Amazing.

[Ian]

All the other people are like over 60, but we're all 18 and had an absolutely wonderful time. We started off in Venice, then went to Florence, Rome, San Marino, then spent seven days in Sorrento. And the Amalfi coast is just astonishing.

[Natasha Clark]

Beautiful. It's beautiful. Yes. I thought Pompeii was, was exceptional and I was looking actually can recommend a book. Usually what I like to do when I go to a place is read a book, either a fiction or a non fiction book about the place that I'm in. I like to read it when I'm there so you can, you can soak it up a bit better. And then I couldn't quite find. I, I had a few English language books that I came across in a few bookshops. There's a Merry Beard one which is apparently very popular. There's another historian as well that's written a couple of ones about Pompeii specifically. I don't want a 500 pager. I want like a 2, 3, 100 pager. A bit of history and I just, I won't read it. I know I won't. 300 pages gives me a little bit of a history about, about Pompeii and. But in a sort of.

[Ian]

Hasn't Robert Harris written about it?

[Natasha Clark]

That's it.

[Ian]

Robert Harris was the other one.

[Natasha Clark]

But that was really chunky. It was, it was huge.

[Ian]

Yeah, but there's not many words on the page, so.

[Natasha Clark]

Okay. Anyway, if any listeners have any recommendations for a short history of Pompeii from an accessible historian. Or maybe I should just buy the Mary Beard one. That's absolutely fine.

[Ian]

Mary Beard is one of my heroines of all time.

[Natasha Clark]

Or maybe I should buy that one.

[Ian]

She's a lovely person and she explains history in a way that even people like me can understand.

[Natasha Clark]

That was sort of why I thought I might pick it up. And I did find it inside the Pompeii ruins. There was a bookshop there and I thought, oh, shall I buy it? I didn't buy it. Should have bought it. But yes. How do I usually relax on the weekend running. We've talked about this before, but a baking.

[Ian]

Marathons.

[Natasha Clark]

I do marathons. I've done two. Do you think I should do a third?

[Ian]

Well, I'm not really a good person to advise you because yet this morning I had to walk to my local doctor's surgery and a lot of it's quite uphill and obviously I was just walking. It's only like a 10 minute walk. And I was thinking, how do people do marathons?

[Natasha Clark]

Well, we do lots of training. On a serious note, did you find it difficult?

[Ian]

To be honest, yes. Because after my stage four, four years ago, I was back there at the weekend in Buxton and everyone remembered it.

[Natasha Clark]

But you've been doing A lot of work in the gym. You've had a personal training.

[Ian]

Essentially, it buggered my knees. The knees will never be how they were. I mean, I'm thinking if I had them both replaced, would it be back to normal?

[Natasha Clark]

And I don't need to replace them. You just need to do some knee strengthening condition.

[Ian]

No, I've been doing that. I've been doing that for like two or three years and it has not quite the same. It has improved, but I know that they'll never be the same.

[Natasha Clark]

You just got to keep it up as well. That's the problem.

[Ian]

If I went on a cruise like Tessa did a couple of weeks where they stop at all these different Mediterranean cities and then walk around them, I couldn't do it.

[Natasha Clark]

It's a lot. It's a lot. And I did a lot of walking around Pompeii and I walked around the ancient city and it took, you know, an hour and a half and I barely saw any of it. So it is difficult. The older you get that sightseeing is. Is more and more difficult, isn't it?

[Ian]

But did you get a real sense of the day that it happened?

[Natasha Clark]

No, not really. I just couldn't. I still couldn't imagine it. And obviously you're in the sort of. You're in the shadow of Vesuvius, basically, wherever you are around that area. But yeah, it was. It was really hard to comprehend. And I think obviously the reason why it was so shocking and obviously at the time is because nobody had expected this entire civilization to be affected in the way that it was. But, yeah, fascinating stuff. It was really good.

[Ian]

We are all going to have to contemplate Armageddon. Not nuclear Armageddon, volcano Armageddon. I was at the Buxton Festival on Saturday doing a session with three generals and Colleen Graffi, who was in the Bush administration. And it was essentially about the art of generalship, but also looking at the world situation, how likely is a war? And each of these generals basically put the fear of God into the audience saying there is going to be a war. And we've all got to contemplate what happens in that war, how prepared are we, not just as a country, but as communities, as individuals for it. And it's frightening stuff.

[Natasha Clark]

It is. And, you know, one of Darren Jones final acts in office as Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister was basically setting out lots of preparedness that the government says we should all be doing in these exercises that the Cabinet Office will be doing within the next six months to a year about preparing for this. And I think it's one of the things that the government haven't done very well at preparing the country, preparing people,

[Ian]

because nobody is prepared. Which is why my next book is going to be called Resilience Preparing for now. Coming to.

[Natasha Clark]

Can I do a chapter?

[Ian]

It depends how I'm really resilient.

[Natasha Clark]

Well, the resilience of marathons. I think whenever someone asks me about what. What marathons teach you, it's the one thing that I say is resilience.

[Ian]

That might be an interesting one.

[Natasha Clark]

Emotional resilience, physical resilience. And it, you know, how many people

[Ian]

in their homes have emergency supplies? I mean, if, say, the banking system went down.

[Natasha Clark]

Yeah. A fair few tins of butter beans,

[Ian]

but not butter beans.

[Natasha Clark]

Yes, very good protein and carbohydrate.

[Ian]

Baked beans.

[Natasha Clark]

I've maybe got a tin of baked beans. It's not my favourite bean.

[Ian]

I love baked beans.

[Natasha Clark]

Do you? Okay, well, you'll be fine in the apartment.

[Ian]

I don't like any of them.

[Natasha Clark]

I've probably got a lot of tins is basically what I'm saying, but I don't know if I could survive for that long. I've got a first aid kit, shortwave radio. No, don't think so.

[Ian]

No. You need to get one of them.

[Natasha Clark]

I've got one of those pouches that you put your phones in that stop the mobile phone signal from getting through. Does. Does that. Will that help me in Apocalypse? Probably not.

[Ian]

That's a good one, though. So I'm just writing the proposal at the moment, but hopefully I think that book needs to come out sooner rather than later because originally I thought, yeah, 2028 would be fine. Now I think bring it Forward early. Part 2027.

[Natasha Clark]

The thing that the government keeps saying, Keir Starmer, NATO keep saying, is that there's a realistic possibility of war by 2030. That's the date they keep saying.

[Ian]

And I asked General Sir Richard Barrons about that. Why 2030? Because if Putin is going to do something and attack a NATO country in some way, even if it's an incursion, surely he's going to do it before then. Because he's not getting any younger, is he?

[Natasha Clark]

He's not. But I think, you know, it depends on the way that Ukraine goes, doesn't it? And this is obviously digging into be such a long war now and a war of attrition. So I think the argument being that he is unprepared for war now and only by 2030 is potentially, they're not gonna be ready before then. But we'll have to see.

[Ian]

Well, that's the end of the fluff. Bit of the fluff. Well, I say it's the end, obviously it creeps in some of the rest of it. But let's take a. A short break at. So as we speak, we're recording this on Friday afternoon at 4 o'. Clock. Andy Burnham has.

[Natasha Clark]

It's Monday at 4 o'. Clock.

[Ian]

What did I say?

[Natasha Clark]

You said Friday.

[Ian]

Wishful thinking, because on Friday. Actually, here is a bit more fluff. On Friday, I' to Malvern. Do you mind going to.

[Natasha Clark]

I do, I do. And so you know the lovely Terry who does the makeup for us down at the Millbank studio?

[Ian]

She's going as well.

[Natasha Clark]

She's doing Jackie's makeup.

[Ian]

She is. And Corey's coming too. Not on Friday, I think. You're going down on Saturday, aren't you?

[Natasha Clark]

Sorry. We should tell the listeners why you're going up to Malvern.

[Ian]

Jackie Smith is getting married.

[Natasha Clark]

She is.

[Ian]

To the lovely Page Three Boy. Somebody emailed me the other day, why is he called Page Three Boy?

[Natasha Clark]

Ian? That was me. I texted you yesterday.

[Ian]

Was it?

[Natasha Clark]

Yeah, I texted you 24 hours ago.

[Ian]

Quickly, we forget.

[Natasha Clark]

And I said, why is he called Page Three Boy? And you said.

[Ian]

And I said, because when the Mail on Sunday revealed their relationship all over Page Three, he was called Page Three Boy.

[Natasha Clark]

But so I didn't know this was Jackie's partner. And, yeah, Terry told me, I'm going up to do the makeup. And so I said, oh, who's she getting married to? She said, I've forgotten his name. But he's referred to as Page Three Book Graham.

[Ian]

He's a University of Birmingham academic and an absolutely lovely guy. Because when she told me that she'd met this guy and wanted to introduce him to me, I was sort of feeling rather protective and thinking, my Jackie, I hate him already.

[Natasha Clark]

Is he good enough for you?

[Ian]

But he is good enough for her. Yeah, he's really, really lovely guy.

[Natasha Clark]

So she's doing the makeup for Jackie this weekend and then next weekend she's doing it for my best friend.

[Ian]

Is she?

[Natasha Clark]

Yeah, which is nice.

[Ian]

Yeah. Well, that's nice. No, because I'm quite. I'm really looking forward to it, actually. I'm a bit disturbed, though, that Corey has booked into a completely different hotel. I don't know what he thought might happen in the hotel that I'm staying in.

[Natasha Clark]

He just wants to maybe just not spend quite as much time with you on the week seconds that he is paid to.

[Ian]

Well, I don't I don't understand that. He says, is it enough of money? It's not very expensive. About 100 quid. I'm paying about 160, so it's not that much.

[Natasha Clark]

Nearly double.

[Ian]

Okay. If you want to put it like that. If you want to make.

[Natasha Clark]

We're not all made of money.

[Ian]

Well, no, I'm not made of money either.

[Natasha Clark]

Oh, all your books are clear.

[Ian]

I decided I'd go down on the Friday rather than the Saturday morning, just in case the trains weren't running properly, because it would be a bit bad because I'm doing a reading.

[Natasha Clark]

Oh, yes, of course. You've got to be there.

[Ian]

A poem that I've written myself, which, if listeners are very good, could you

[Natasha Clark]

give us a small taste teaser? What's it about?

[Ian]

I don't think it would be appropriate to do it before the wedding, but I might do once next week.

[Natasha Clark]

You can read it out or read a little bit.

[Ian]

It's a mixture of deep and meaningful and rather irreverent where I do mention the word bumble.

[Natasha Clark]

Okay.

[Ian]

Because that's why they kind of met.

[Natasha Clark]

Did I tell you, when one of my friends got married last year, I did a reading, which I suggested loads of different readings to her and I did. A, Marriage is like having a dog. I'm gonna Google this right now. It was really good.

[Ian]

You see, this is why as soon as she asked me to do it, A, I was very flattered that she asked, and B, I thought, I do not want to have a generic Internet.

[Natasha Clark]

No, it wasn't a generic. And it wasn't. It was one that I spent. I spent a lot of time, like, looking for something that I thought that they both would like. So it's a. It's a poem called How Falling in Love Is Like Owning a Dog by Taylor Malley, which was very sweet.

[Ian]

Go on, then, read a couple of lines.

[Natasha Clark]

Love is warm. It lies between you and lives and breathes and makes funny noises. Love wakes you up all hours of the night with its needs. It needs to be fed so it will grow and stay healthy.

[Ian]

It's starting in bed.

[Natasha Clark]

No, it's. It's talking about a dog, but it's called love. And it's like the relation, basically saying how love is like having a dog. Oh, it's very interesting.

[Ian]

Does it go down well?

[Natasha Clark]

Love leaves messes. Love leaves you little surprises here and there. Love needs lots of cleaning up after. Sometimes you just want to get love fixed.

[Ian]

Oh, my God.

[Natasha Clark]

No, it was really.

[Ian]

See, I'm not thinking of a dog.

[Natasha Clark]

There well, no, but that's the whole point. It's a double entendre. Essentially. Sometimes love just wants to go out for a nice long walk.

[Ian]

If you'd consulted me on that, I would advise to get.

[Natasha Clark]

So she's a dog lover. Dogs have been part of her and her husband's life. So I thought it was sweet. The final line is, love loves you and never stops. It was very sweet. I teared up a little.

[Ian]

Did you?

[Natasha Clark]

Anyway, it went down very well.

[Ian]

Yeah, you see, that's my problem.

[Natasha Clark]

Can you get through it without crying, Ian?

[Ian]

Well, the other problem is, will I be able to see it, to read it with my little eye issue at the moment?

[Natasha Clark]

Why don't you get it printed on some big paper?

[Ian]

I'm going to, just as a backup. And then what I'm going to do is have it all done in professional calligraphy and then get it framed so she can put it on her loo wall.

[Natasha Clark]

That's nice.

[Ian]

That's the wedding present, basically.

[Natasha Clark]

That's a good. That's a really good wedding present. I like that. That's really sweet from the heart.

[Ian]

Anyway, back to Auntie Burnham.

[Natasha Clark]

Back to Auntie Burnham.

[Ian]

I say back to Auntie Burnham.

[Natasha Clark]

We haven't even gone on to it, have we? Okay, so as we speak, it is Andy Burnham's. The start of Andy Burnham's second week in office. He's been in since last month.

[Ian]

Second week syndrome.

[Natasha Clark]

Second week syndrome. So, yeah, he had a really busy first week, didn't he? So the. The buses announcement that buses freeze to 2 pounds, the VAT on energy bills being cut. Yeah, good story. Policy for sure. Yeah. Extending that. We've cut it by a pound as well, and we will cut it by a pound. The VAT on energy bills, the cutting business rates for pubs and other hospitality businesses opening up number 10 north. So he was pretty busy last week, to be fair, for his. For his first full week in office. And this week we're told that he's going to be focusing on some of the thornier, more difficult issues of government. So things like social care, we're told, devolution speech potentially later this week, and also unemployment, the neets unemployment crisis of young people being unable to find jobs. So those are all expected to be addressed, at least by Andy Burnham. I'm not sure he's going to be setting out a huge program for social care this week, but he's going to essentially say, look, these are some really difficult. I'm going to focus on them while I'm in office.

[Ian]

We'll talk about that one a little bit later. But I was reading an article on the train up which says that if you are in a part time job, you're much better off being on pip. You get more money from the benefit system than having a part time job. Now that surely is where we can cut the money that we spend on benefits, isn't it?

[Natasha Clark]

So this was. I think you were referring to an article in the Times newspaper today which basically says that, yeah, you get £194 a week for the highest rate of PIP, have anxiety, depression, ADHD, the highest rate. So this is not severe mental illness, this is really severe anxiety, severe depression. You've got to basically go through a lot of hoops to get this pip. And people who call into LBC tell us how difficult the system is to get this, but they then compare it to a 16 year old who is in a part time job who they say only gets £94 a week in terms of this benefit, in terms of the benefit of working. So, yes, I think there are a variety of reasons for that. Right. Your 16 year old is paid less, the minimum wage is less if you're under 18. It's less as well if you're under 25. But yes, it's true that PIP is meant to be a benefit on top of work, but it is incredibly generous in some cases. But yeah, I guess if you are a young person, there may be people who try to game the system. Of course, in every system there are.

[Ian]

But how. Burnham seems to be quite intent on cutting the welfare bill and I think that's a good thing. But this is not going to go down with the very people that made him Prime Minister, is it? A lot of Labour MPs, they're going to react really badly to that.

[Natasha Clark]

They are. And he said we do need to get serious about reform of welfare. He said that in interviews done over the weekend. But I don't think Andy Burnham is going to be in the business of let's take big swinging cuts to the PIP system. He's not said what he wants to do, he's not set out anything of what he wants to do. But I don't think he's going to go back to the. Keir Starmer plans to, to, to change the PIP assessment, qualifier qualifications and the criteria. Otherwise, you're totally right, he's going to get a real, real backlash from, from his back benches.

[Ian]

And there are plenty of people now on the back benches, ones that he sacked from being ministers under Keir Starmer.

[Natasha Clark]

There's some grumblings there.

[Ian]

There are some real. I mean, I normally, if people I know get sacked or they appointed to the Cabinet, I usually drop them a text saying either sorry or congratulations, partly because I genuinely mean it, but also you want to maintain good relations with them to get them on the program.

[Natasha Clark]

That's a nice thing to do.

[Ian]

And shall we say, a couple of the texts I had back and they, they've always. All of the ones that sacked responded, a couple of them, I was quite surprised at how antsy they were and they, they said, well, I'm not going to say anything in August, but come September, Back in the fray.

[Natasha Clark]

Come September, give me a ring.

[Ian]

I was thinking, excellent, that's a couple of phone ins.

[Natasha Clark]

Yeah, definitely. I think it is tricky. You know, every Prime Minister starts off incredibly popular usually, and then it all slides downhill from there for most people. Right. So Andy Burnham is going to have a difficult one if he decides to reform welfare and like I said, we don't know what he's going to do. He said that he wants to bring the bill down. That's all he said.

[Ian]

What do you think the public reaction has been to his first week? I've always thought he would get a honeymoon bounce in the polls in the way that Keir Starmer never did. I mean, there were reasons for that, but normally a new Prime Minister does and I thought that within the first few months the polls are going to completely change around that. I think the reform trajectory is downwards. The Conservative trajectory is a little bit upwards and I think Labour's trajectory will be a lot upwards, but how long that lasts I'm not sure.

[Natasha Clark]

Yeah, and so far we haven't got a lot of polls in, but we have had one in today from More in Common, which is the first one to show Labour ahead of reform for the first time since Burnham became Prime Minister. Then Labour now on 28% reform.

[Ian]

28. That's a massive rise.

[Natasha Clark]

Exactly. I think it's a rise of a couple. I think it's maybe three or four percentage points. No, it's more than that according to this poll from More In Common. But yes, you're right. So before, like Labour have been on between 18 and sort of 22ish, around sort of tied with the Conservatives. And yeah, this one has them now on 28%, Reform second on 24%, the Tories third on 22%, Liberal Democrats fourth on 12%. So this is, yeah, the Greens on their lowest share of the vote since Zach Polanski became leader. So that is Fantastic news for the Labour Party, because they'll go, oh, great, we're winning back Green voters. That's. That's brilliant. And, yeah, like I say, the fact that they are 4 percentage points clear of reform will absolutely delight them. So, you know, as the Burnham bounce is bouncing, like all of the polls so far are just shown a couple of percentage points, but this is really clear territory.

[Ian]

Now, just as a side issue, what do you put the decline of the Greens down to? Because they were motoring sort of a few months after Zach Polanski became leader, you thought that they might well be semi permanently in sort of 18, 19, 20% and they've completely tanked.

[Natasha Clark]

Well, I think two things. One, the increased scrutiny that Zach Polanski got around the local elections, lots of stories around him, his council tax, his. His sort of party's affairs, how they were being run, internal divisions about anti Semitism. I think all of that and all of those, that media scrutiny and skepticism probably added a little bit towards that poll dip. And secondly, Andy Burnham, he's more left wing than Keir Starmer. They're naturally going to take away a few votes from the Green Party.

[Ian]

I'm not so sure about that.

[Natasha Clark]

I think so. I think he will be. Yeah, I think he will be. I think he's.

[Ian]

He talks a good left wing game, but he has no history of being

[Natasha Clark]

left wing, does he? Not not.

[Ian]

No.

[Natasha Clark]

I think he, you know, is already talked in the last few weeks about what he wants in terms of raising taxes. He's already said, I'm going to have to ask people to pay a little bit more at some point. Probably not now, but at some point. I think, you know, he does. If he wants to reform social care, I don't think he's going to be able to get around it without some sort of social care levy or tax. Yeah, I think he. I think he is more left wing. I think he is more to the left. I think he's bringing people into government in his top team who definitely have more left wing ideas. You're seeing people like Louise Hague, Edmund Band now at the centre of government, and you wouldn't maybe call them socialists for sure, but they might describe themselves as such. I think that he will definitely be able to take some of the Green vote.

[Ian]

Back when we first put the tickets for my Edinburgh Fringe show on sale in April, Zach Polanski was the fastest seller by a country mile.

[Natasha Clark]

He's a fantastic politician, he's a great speaker.

[Ian]

But then I would say at the beginning of this month, Couldn't sell a ticket, really. Yeah.

[Natasha Clark]

And why'd you put that down to.

[Ian]

He's had no profile, really.

[Natasha Clark]

As in since the local elections. You think it was the sort of increased media profile.

[Ian]

He's not doing the amount of media that he used to. He's just not making the headlines in the way that he did.

[Natasha Clark]

Yeah.

[Ian]

And I'm not quite sure why that was. He did a phone in with me and I had. I did his podcast last week, Bold. Quite enjoyed it, actually. So he was asking me the questions rather than the other way around. And he's. I think his press people are afraid to let him out.

[Natasha Clark]

Well, that does make sense in, like I say, reaction to some of the negative press that he's been getting in the last few months. But equally, there's not a local election that he's fighting at the moment. Right. The Greens, obviously, now going into local government and trying to find their way there, which is going to be in itself difficult. The Greens in sort of my area and Lewisham are already making quite a lot of waves trying to oppose things like immigration rates, aids, which is interesting. So I. I think, yeah, like, the spotlight's probably just off. We're not in a local elections period. And Zach Polanski doesn't have a lot of MPs in parliament and probably can't make this continue to make the same sort of media penetration as before. And Andy Burnham's taking up all the airtime.

[Ian]

Right. And I'm looking at pictures now of Andy Burnham by a frigate somewhere.

[Natasha Clark]

He's in Portsmouth with Zelensky this afternoon.

[Ian]

I mean, great picture. Yeah. He knows how to use the media, doesn't he, in a way that Keir Starmer never did.

[Natasha Clark]

I don't think you would have not seen Keir Starmer in Portsmouth at a naval base with Zelensky. But Andy Burnham is definitely better.

[Ian]

He looks comfortable in himself, whereas Keir Starmer never quite did.

[Natasha Clark]

Because Keir Starmer wasn't comfortable in himself. He wasn't at all. And Andy Burnham, I think, just because, like, you look at him, you see him sort of smiling, he's more relaxed, he's more comfortable. Like, he. He's been a politician for longer than Keir Starmer has. He's arguably been a career politician in many ways. Right. He's went into the Labour Party quite relatively fresh out of Cambridge within sort of year or so after he graduated, and he's been in politics basically ever since.

[Ian]

And he does carry off a black T shirt quite well.

[Natasha Clark]

He does.

[Ian]

Which for a 55 year old man. That's not a bad look.

[Natasha Clark]

I think he does.

[Ian]

I can't do that anymore.

[Natasha Clark]

You can't?

[Ian]

Not that I ever really did.

[Natasha Clark]

You can give it a go.

[Ian]

I might give it a go. We can all.

[Natasha Clark]

He's looking in quite good shape. If I. If I don't.

[Ian]

No, you wouldn't say he was 55, would you? I wonder if there's a bit of the Grecian 2000 there.

[Natasha Clark]

What's that?

[Ian]

Hair dye?

[Natasha Clark]

Oh, I see. No, there is some. Great. So in his interview over the weekend, you can definitely see the gray sort of poking through the side.

[Ian]

You know, the secret is not to get it all out because that looks unnatural, but just to sort of keep them.

[Natasha Clark]

Maybe he's had a little bit of a topic. He definitely had a haircut.

[Ian]

Within a year you'll see the difference.

[Natasha Clark]

Oh, for sure. You saw it with Kiss.

[Ian]

Looking like Tom Swarbrick.

[Natasha Clark]

Oh, that's rude. That's rude and mean. I think you're gonna say kiss stomach.

[Ian]

But Tom Sparberry has fantastic hair. I'm only jealous.

[Natasha Clark]

Oh, yeah, exactly. You're just jealous because you haven't got any. Yeah, exactly. But yes, no Andy Burnham. We're definitely seeing a burn and bounce in the polls and whether that will continue. As we discussed when I was doing this podcast with you a couple of weeks ago, this is only going to increase demands for a general election because people are going to say, well, why not go now if you think that. And all we're doing.

[Ian]

Well, all he's done is rule out what he calls an early general election. That can cover a multitude of sins, can't it?

[Natasha Clark]

He did say, I'm going to rule it out. But. But then he just said there's no early election. He said there is no. Well, of course there isn't. Well, exactly. But I would not put it past him within the next year to still call something. But I think you're just going to have to wait. It's too early to tell.

[Ian]

Nigel Farage has always predicted a 2027 election. He might be right. Yeah, but he may be right.

[Natasha Clark]

He might be right. But I think under Keir Starmer it was unlikely. Right. It's now more likely with the new Prime Minister. Of course it is. But yes, I think that it's way too early to tell. You've got to see how conference goes, see if this bounce continues in the polls. You've got start your agenda. You've got to, you know, all of these. You've got to have Your first budget, really, I think before you even can make a decision about whether. Whether the public is still with you or not.

[Ian]

By next March, he's quite a way ahead in the poll. Say he's on 30, 32%. It will be quite tempting to go for a May election.

[Natasha Clark]

The. The noises will become louder and louder and louder and he's only going to face.

[Ian]

And you'll be making those noises.

[Natasha Clark]

I think that once we see as well, Andy Burnham essentially feeling constrained by the manifesto and he believes that he's pushed it as far as it can go, you can see the narrative forming.

[Ian]

Right. Right. We're going to talk a little bit about social care and the history of it and what anti Bernard might do, because he does have a bit of history on this issue, as we'll find out in a moment. Social care has been one of those issues that has bedeviled successive governments, bedeviled really all political parties over the last 15, 20 years. And nobody's come up with a workable solution. The one Prime Minister that tried to do it stupidly did it as part of a manifesto launch in the 2017 Generation General Election. And Theresa may live to regret it. I can't remember the exact details of that, but it went down like a cup of cold sick within the Conservative Party. Nobody had been consulted about it. It was an idea of Nick Timothy, I think think it was.

[Natasha Clark]

Yeah, it was shoved in the manifesto. Quite, quite.

[Ian]

Nobody knew knew about it.

[Natasha Clark]

Yeah, I remember working that weekend and sort of seeing the way that it.

[Ian]

Who were you working for at the time?

[Natasha Clark]

I was at the Sun Online at the time. It was before I was even at the newspaper. We were as I was on the website and, you know, it's a lot of reacting, it's a lot of writing up lots of things, but I remember seeing the mood turn on that Sunday. The Mail on Sunday did a big front page splash on this, saying, this is the death tax, it's the dementia tax. Theresa maybe can't do this. And from that day on or the day after, I think it was the day after she gave a press conference in Wales where she said, nothing has changed. Nothing has changed. That famous press conference. But she had. She had ditched that policy and it was seen as so toxic that 24 hours just totally switched the public mood and the press mood and that. That led her to, you know, completely change her tune on that. And since then, no politician Boris Johnson mentioned it when he became Prime Minister, saying that he wanted to look at social care again. But basically, no Prime Minister has touched it since Theresa May. It's awful.

[Ian]

And the reason for that, presumably, is because whatever system they come up with, it's going to cost more money. And I was appalled when I started doing phone ins on this, on lbc, I mean, donkeys, years ago. I couldn't believe that in many parts of the country, people who are carers, who travel from one appointment to the next, they aren't even paid petrol costs and they're not paid for their time between appointments. And you think, how can this be? It is just clearly wrong.

[Natasha Clark]

It doesn't work, the system doesn't work. And, you know, I've just been sort of looking up the history of this and it seems that ever since really the setting up of the NHS, since maybe 10, 15 years after that, it seemed like a. From then it was quite evident that social care did not fit into this. It was slightly separate. So from 1948, the government passed what was called the National Assistance Act. It was based on a social insurance and allied services report by Sir William Beveridge, setting out the basis for an insurance based system for health services and unemployment support. And from then onwards, essentially July 1968, local authorities were essentially given powers to expand their adult social care provisions. And from then onwards, it seems like the government has just been piecemeal after piecemeal bit of legislation to adapt and to tweak the system, giving local authorities the power to essentially issue social care provision. And there has been report after report after report, commission after commission. The government first commissioned one in 1986. Roy Griffiths, commissioning the way public funds are used to support community care. And the, you know, the most recent one, of course, in July 2009, there was a Green Paper. I've forgotten exactly the name or it was called at the time, but that was Andy Burnham when he was in the Department of Health looking at reforms for social.

[Ian]

He had held cross party talks with Andrew Lansley, who was the Conservative health spokesman, and I think Norman Lamb, am I right in saying that for the Liberal Democrats?

[Natasha Clark]

I think you might be right, But I'm not 100%.

[Ian]

But those talks, I can't remember the reasons that they collapsed, but they did.

[Natasha Clark]

They collapsed because basically, I think it was the Conservatives at the time, essentially came out and said, these are a death tax, we're not going to support them anymore. And since then, it's just been. It's been absolutely not a cross party issue at all.

[Ian]

So the big question here is, what would the general public stomach? Because if you introduced a National Care Service Equivalent to the National Health Service. I'm told it would cost somewhere around 18 and a half billion pounds a year. Now, when you think that the health service costs 200 billion pounds a year, I mean, that's not a massive amount, but it would mean putting income tax up the standard rate by 3 pence. Now, would people stomach that? Particularly at a time when we're probably going to have to pay more taxes to increase defence spending in the next few years? It would be the simplest thing to do, wouldn't it? There'd be no bureaucracy in it, it would raise the money needed. But I just don't know whether there's a public appetite for that.

[Natasha Clark]

Yeah. And local authorities are already spending 30 billion pounds a year on adult social care, so that money is already being spent. So under Andy Burnham's idea, which he sort of suggested last week, is that he wants to roll that into the nhs. Do you not just take that money away from local authorities or not take it away, but like put it into some sort of other NHS fronted system?

[Ian]

Because, of course, he's also reading in, I think it was the Sunday Times, they were speculating that he wants to abolish council tax and abolish stamp duty.

[Natasha Clark]

Yes. Number 10 came out today and said that's essentially not true. They said. What's the exact phrase that number 10 used? Earlier today they said something like, there are no active plans to look at this. Which implied that it had been looked at potentially in the past and it was not being.

[Ian]

Apparently he's a fan of a land value.

[Natasha Clark]

Yes. And his spokesperson today couldn't say whether he did agree with that still or not. But he. They did say that these are decisions for a budget. You can't just go out and speculate about scrapping stamp duty until you're in a budget position.

[Ian]

Right. Budget in the autumn is going to.

[Natasha Clark]

It's going to be a big one.

[Ian]

It is going to be a big one because that will signal the direction of travel for, I think, this entire government. And that may be the time either anti burner becomes a bit of a hero or the exact opposite.

[Natasha Clark]

Exactly. So it's whether you see whether you want to know the election or not. But yes, Andy Burnham said that he wants to integrate social care into the nhs, so essentially it will be free, essentially at the point of use. But as that, you know that some newspapers have been speculating over the weekend, it can't include everything. It's going to have to include your care, but it's probably not going to include your accommodation for example, it's probably not going to include your washing, for example. Like that's, that's the way that the system already exists. It can't pay for everything, but the NHS does.

[Ian]

That's the thing. I mean, it does pay for your board, it does pay for your food,

[Natasha Clark]

but you're not in an NHS bed forever, right?

[Ian]

A lot of old people are.

[Natasha Clark]

They are, but like I say, that's wrong. They shouldn't be in hospital for weeks and months and years on end, right? So in the community you should, you know, in an ideal world you'd be living in an assisted living or sort of a care home that was funded by essentially the state. I think that's what he would like to see. But in terms of the funding at the moment, right, you know, there is a capacity cap, essentially a cut off, where if you have more than 23,000 pounds a year of savings, you are expected to pay for the full cost of your care. If it's underneath that, then the state will step in to help pay for it. And obviously Theresa May's big idea was that she wanted to introduce essentially a ceiling for this. So she wanted to say, okay, after you've paid £76,000 and this is something that was looked at I think all the way through the coalition government and they kept deferring it and deferring and deferring it, saying there was going to be a cap and a ceiling, look at the this, and then the state will pay for things outside of that. And I think what's basically happened is they realised this is unaffordable and it is unaffordable in the current state. Right? And the problem being that many people, all of their income is tied up in their house, they won't get that until after they pass on. And therefore where do you get that money to pay upfront for your care home costs? And should it be right that you spend all of your money on paying for those care home costs and not have anything to leave leave to your, your children, your grandchildren? That's obviously a very conservative principle that people want to, to be able to leave something. But equally, if this, if you are paying potentially thousand tens of thousands of pounds for years, for the end, your end of, end of year care, that obviously is going to eat into that estate. And, and, and some people say, well, that's fair, and some people say it's not fair, the state should, should have to, to chip in and pay, you know, we're all living longer. So therefore this is just a, you know, Increasing difficulty. Right.

[Ian]

You are around half my age, but you may be around exactly half my age.

[Natasha Clark]

How old are you?

[Ian]

64.

[Natasha Clark]

Oh, I'm 34, so not quite nearly.

[Ian]

Is this a subject that you talk about with your friends of a similar age?

[Natasha Clark]

No, no, it's not. My, you know, friends and family are not quite getting to the stage of like, you know, where all of them are needing care. Like grandparents need care. Sure. But it's not really our responsibility to sort it out. But when you're getting to your parents dealing with it and when you're dealing with your parents, that's when it's going to, I think, hit home of like the unfairness of the system. And I've had it a bit already with my, with my grandpa when he was, he's been in a, was in a care home before he passed away and like I say, a lot of savings went on that. But yeah, until it's right in front of your face, you just don't deal with it. Right.

[Ian]

So pensions. Same with pensions, which, I mean, I hate.

[Natasha Clark]

I can happily talk about all of these issues with my friends, they just don't want to talk about them with me.

[Ian]

Corey ever suggested to me, oh, let's do a po. Let's do a pensions phone in which to be fair, I can't remember that he ever has, but if he did, I mean, I think I'd rather slip my wrist than do that really. But it's such an important subject, isn't it?

[Natasha Clark]

One in five people is over 65. So if you do a pension phone in, you've got one in five people that are going to care about.

[Ian]

I mean, I say we don't do pensions phoners, but we do quite a lot on the triple lock because we have this sort of Swarbrickdale Kentish axis where all three of us bang the drum for abolishing the triple lock and we get dogs abuse from the over 65s for doing so.

[Natasha Clark]

I think, I think a lot of people don't understand that the triple lock means you get more pension. Not no pension at all. If they, they think. When you say abolishing the triple lock, they think that means abolishing the state pension. Well, no, I agree with you. It costs, what is it, £15 billion a year for the triple lock.

[Ian]

Yeah.

[Natasha Clark]

And if you took it down to a double lock, it would, you know, most, but most pensioners would be, would be absolutely fine.

[Ian]

I just think that if you say to people your pension will go up with inflation and in a good year It'll go up more, but we're not going to guarantee that. If the economy's doing well, if we've got good growth, then fine, we will put the pension up. I think most people would accept that as a reasonable position.

[Natasha Clark]

Well, it's just the inherent unfairness is that you know your benefits and you go up in line with inflection, but your pension goes up something more. Right. It's inherently unfair. Your student loan.

[Ian]

Oh, well, we've worked very hard for it, Ian.

[Natasha Clark]

Of course you have. Of course you have. You've been paying into a pension pot all your life. Which, again, not how it works. No, not. But I'm not going to rely on a state pension. I don't think Corey and I are going to get a state pension when we come around to it, so.

[Ian]

Yeah, but Corey wouldn't deserve one.

[Natasha Clark]

Oh, that's not true.

[Ian]

That made him look up.

[Natasha Clark]

Of course he deserves a state pension. No, I don't think we'll be getting a state pension pension. I don't think Corey and I will be. I genuinely think it will be. It will be unaffordable by this point. Or if not, it will be severely.

[Ian]

I've only got three years to go. You cannot. Apparently you can defer your pension.

[Natasha Clark]

You can if you want to take it.

[Ian]

What's the point of that? Because, presumably, continue on work. If you die, then you've lost out. Well, obviously you've lost out in quite

[Natasha Clark]

a big way because you're dead, so you don't need it.

[Ian]

No, I know, but you. You. Yeah, that money transferred into your estate, would it.

[Natasha Clark]

Yes, it would. It will go to your. Your spouse, right?

[Ian]

Oh, I'm not having that.

[Natasha Clark]

Sorry. That's marriage, Ian. I think you. I think you. Unfortunately, I think that's what you signed up for. No. Yeah, unfortunately, I think all of that will go to John. That's literally how it works. But, yeah, I believe so. You're making me doubt myself.

[Ian]

We have this arrangement where we've both now written proper wills where we leave everything to the other one and then when the other one dies, 50% of it goes to my bequests and 50% of it goes to his.

[Natasha Clark]

Okay, so you've picked where. Where that's going.

[Ian]

Yeah.

[Natasha Clark]

Where's it going?

[Ian]

Mainly to Corey.

[Natasha Clark]

Aw, I hope Corey gets something. I don't know why we're talking about your death. I have a will as well, which. Lots of people my age go, well, why do you have a will?

[Ian]

Everyone should.

[Natasha Clark]

You should have a will.

[Ian]

Right?

[Natasha Clark]

You should have one.

[Ian]

And it's not very importantly. There should be a side letter to the will which instructs people about how your funeral should be.

[Natasha Clark]

Yes, I've got that as well. I've got an extra page on there. Thank you. Thank you very much. I can't remember what I've written in now, but I have written a letter which it says. Yeah.

[Ian]

Have you chosen your hymns?

[Natasha Clark]

No, I haven't. That's fine.

[Ian]

I have.

[Natasha Clark]

Okay. Well, if you want to come to my funeral, you can choose a hymn for me.

[Ian]

I don't think I'll be alive then.

[Natasha Clark]

You might. You never know. You never know. Never say never. Her.

[Ian]

Sorry.

[Natasha Clark]

This is so morbid.

[Ian]

Cheer up.

[Natasha Clark]

Save for your pension. Everywhere. Start a private pension. I feel like Tom Swarbrick.

[Ian]

No one wants that.

[Natasha Clark]

We were going to talk about social care.

[Ian]

We have done, haven't we?

[Natasha Clark]

We've slightly sidetracked.

[Ian]

What else have we got to say about.

[Natasha Clark]

Do you think. Do you think that the public will stomach an additional taxes to. To pay for a social care levy? Because I think this is exactly what Andy Burnham is now going to have to grapple with. I don't see how you can't do it. And Kemi Badenok has written a letter to Andy Burnham today and she says, I'm not going to help you out on social care care unless you agree not to raise taxes or raise borrowing. Well, how's he going to do it then? I think that's.

[Ian]

I think she's boxed herself, very simply

[Natasha Clark]

box herself into a silly corner of what to pay for social care. Yeah. I do not think that you could. You could cut enough.

[Ian]

Hang on to. Do you know what the total amount the government spends each year is?

[Natasha Clark]

I don't, but if you tell me.

[Ian]

1.3 trillion pounds. Now, if you're telling me that you can't find 80, 18 and a half billion pounds worth of savings among 1.3 trillion, I'd say you lack a lot of imagination. So probably a few other things.

[Natasha Clark]

Governments have been saying they're going to cut spending and we've been cutting spending from government departments probably since 2010.

[Ian]

But they've actually got to mean it doesn't mean it. No, because we talk about austerity during the Cameron Osborne years. Austerity means that public spending was actually cut. It wasn't. It rose every single year in every single department.

[Natasha Clark]

But capital spending, future spending was cut. Right.

[Ian]

A lot of. And that's what they say, but you can find savings if you really, really have to.

[Natasha Clark]

I don't think there is enough to find £18 billion worth of savings. That's my opinion. And I think that. I don't think you see what happened with Keir Starmer and defence money. You couldn't even find 15 billion. And I just think it's harder than you think. Government is harder than you think. And I don't think you can just

[Ian]

go, I do think government is hard.

[Natasha Clark]

I don't think you can just go, I'll find a magic £20 billion up to pay for social care. And also, I also think this £18 billion is an incredibly conservative estimate. I do not think that it will be that cheap. Absolutely not. So, yeah, I do think that Andy Burnham is going to have to decide whether to increase taxes or not to pay for it. I don't think you could do it with borrowing. That's not fair. And also, you know, breaks his fiscal rules, essentially. So I think you have to have a social. And I'm not. To be fair. I. I feel so left wing. I've said this about defence spending as well. I think that the government should have made the case for a defence levy for a defence tax and I think they should make the case for a social care tax too.

[Ian]

And the thing is, with Andy Burnham and Wes Streeton, you've got two people there who actually can communicate, who can sell something to the public in a way that Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves frankly, never could. So that's an advantage for them.

[Natasha Clark]

Yeah. We can't even find £15 billion for defence and it's. It's scrimping and saving off all of these government departments and they can barely put it together and still people say it's not enough.

[Ian]

And I think that's why West Streeting was appointed as Defence Secretary.

[Natasha Clark]

I think so too, yeah.

[Ian]

I had a bit of a go to with General Lord Richard Dannett on this thing at Buxton on Saturday. This was on stage and I said to him, you said that you were totally against West Streeting being appointed Defence Secretary because he knows the square sum were bugger all about defence. I said he knew the square sum of bugger all about health and was actually, I think, quite an effective health secretary. So that isn't a prerequisite to do the job. The fact that he was appointed means that he can now go out and sell the case to the general public for increased defence spending. And you should welcome that.

[Natasha Clark]

Yeah, I think you make a really good point. Did you hear Wes treating's retort back to Richard Dunnett yesterday on Sunday with Lewis Goodall, he said, well, that's why the Prime Minister didn't appoint me as Chief of the Defence Staff, which is a fair point. You know, Defense chiefs advise and ministers decide. Right.

[Ian]

So to be fair, Richard Dannett did row back on it on. So I didn't quite say that you did, mate.

[Natasha Clark]

Look, I, I think, you know, it's obviously useful when an army person with army experience, Navy experience, goes into the Ministry of Defense, but it's not completely necessary. And yeah, Wes Streeting said yesterday, he said, you know, the reason I, I, I've been picked to be Defense Secretary is because Andy Burnham wants me to do what I did with health reform, spending money wisely and shaking up the MOD in a way that I, I did the health service.

[Ian]

And according to, I think it was the Sunday Times yesterday, Wes street, he actually asked for the job.

[Natasha Clark]

Apparently he said, this is the job I wanted.

[Ian]

Well, I'm glad about that because I did wonder whether he did want that. And he's one of my guests in Edinburgh as well. So she'll be a good tool that in, in a lot of detail. By the way, the Edinburgh Fringe run starts on Saturday 8th August. We're starting off that day at 12 o' clock with Nicola Sturgeon. 2 o' clock west reading 4 o'. Clock. Zach Polanski.

[Natasha Clark]

Which one are you looking forward to

[Ian]

the most of all of the run? Probably Cami Bayes or not, because I've

[Natasha Clark]

never seen her all the time.

[Ian]

I know, but I've never seen her in that environment before and I want to see whether she can rise to the challenge.

[Natasha Clark]

I think Nicola Sturgeon's got be fascinating.

[Ian]

Yeah. There's part of me that's a little.

[Natasha Clark]

She might drop out, you know.

[Ian]

No, she won't drop out. Don't, don't say that.

[Natasha Clark]

Sorry.

[Ian]

I mean, I've got to ask her things that are going to be quite. Now, I did ask her uncomfortable things when I interviewed her about a book

[Natasha Clark]

like this is a bit different.

[Ian]

Was it a Lavender Marriage then Nicola, which I really had to gird my loins to ask because, I mean, it's a horrible question to ask somebody, really. Yeah. So that might be quite interesting because I have this reputation in Scotland of being a Nicola Sturgeon fan. Fanboy.

[Natasha Clark]

Well, you're gonna. I think everybody has that right. They think, I think everybody north of the border thinks everybody south of the border.

[Ian]

Yeah.

[Natasha Clark]

You know, but equally I, you know, you dare attack, attack Nicola Sturgeon north of the border and you're, you know, you get all the gnats coming after you on. On social media.

[Ian]

Not as much now.

[Natasha Clark]

Not anymore, no. But it'll be interesting. She's only ever. She's done that one interview with them with Laura Keensburg, which I'm not sure

[Ian]

went that well for her.

[Natasha Clark]

No, it. No, maybe not. But equally, it was. Was. It was seen as a little bit.

[Ian]

The thing is, do. Do I sort of rehash all of the stuff. Oh, sorry. Not to open me bottle. Do I rehash all of the stuff that we already know about the caravan thing and all the rest of it, or do I try and sort of. Because I don't.

[Natasha Clark]

You've got to ask some different questions.

[Ian]

I don't go into these Edinburgh interviews having done any preparation at all, but I feel I should with this one.

[Natasha Clark]

I think you should a little bit. I think maybe you should ask our lovely genius Davidson in Scotland the questions that she would have. She would.

[Ian]

Because she can do all the work for me. Excellent.

[Natasha Clark]

Well, goodness. That wasn't what I suggested, Gina. I'm not saying that, but no, she might be able to suggest a couple of questions that maybe Laura Kuenssberg as a. As a Westminster journalist. I think the Scottish lobby. No. Nicola Sturgeon's story incredibly well. And I think we're a bit frustrated that maybe Laura Kunstberg didn't quite get to that and maybe she could suggest a few questions.

[Ian]

You asked. Which one? I'm looking forward to the one that's probably going to sell, shall we say, fewer tickets than some of the others, but Baroness Gillian shepherd and Lord Robin Butler and they've developed a stage show called yes Minister. So he's obviously the civil servant, she's the minister. And so we're going to sort of do a slight version of that where they talk about their experiences of being in power, but who really held the strings of power.

[Natasha Clark]

Love that.

[Ian]

So I'm really looking forward to that. But which.

[Natasha Clark]

Has anyone sold out yet?

[Ian]

Yeah, well, it depends what you mean by sold out, because the near capacity. Well, the venue, I think has 385 seats and Kemi and Nicola are nearly at that at the moment.

[Natasha Clark]

So what you're saying is, get your

[Ian]

tickets in now, they will sell out, but if they do sell out, we can move into a bigger venue.

[Natasha Clark]

Okay, that's good.

[Ian]

But there's part of me that if you only just sell out a few, a few more than the 380, it'll

[Natasha Clark]

make it look quieter.

[Ian]

It's empty. So I remember the first time we had Nicola Sturgeon there. We went into the bigger venue which takes 900 and we had 600.

[Natasha Clark]

That's a big jump, isn't it?

[Ian]

It felt empty but it. I mean 650 tickets was still a good sale.

[Natasha Clark]

I think you probably would get a few more for Nicholas Sturgeon this year than last.

[Ian]

Oh, we will see. I don't know whether it's going to work doing three shows a day, but

[Natasha Clark]

you're going to be exhausted, that's for sure.

[Ian]

Yeah.

[Natasha Clark]

And at the moment, when are you going to sleep?

[Ian]

Well, a night like most people. But yeah, maybe three is a bit much.

[Natasha Clark]

You've done it, you've put them in the diary.

[Ian]

Now the reason they want to do it this way is because it means they don't have to pay for so many hotel nights.

[Natasha Clark]

That makes sense, doesn't it?

[Ian]

And it is bloody expensive to put on a show in Edinburgh. You see, we don't pay the guests.

[Natasha Clark]

Yeah.

[Ian]

So it's all the money goes to defraying the cost. But we're at the Edinburgh International Conference Center. I don't know what that cost to higher but it must be quite a lot.

[Natasha Clark]

A lot. Well, good luck with it.

[Ian]

Thank you. And thank you for being with us today.

[Natasha Clark]

Of course you can tell I've said this to glory offer. You can tell Tessa. Lovely Tessa. She doesn't need to keep buying me a bottle of wine every time I step in for her. I really.

[Ian]

Rubbish.

[Natasha Clark]

I really appreciated it but she knows

[Ian]

what Malka you are.

[Natasha Clark]

Excuse me, I'm not. Got six bottles on my. On my. A six bottle wine rack. Not. Not a large one. I think that's perfectly adequate.

[Ian]

Right, well we will be back with the second podcast of the week on Friday morning so we look forward to that and goodbye. By the way, I've got loads of questions backed up but if you want to submit a question for the next episode because we'll spend quite a bit of time answering your questions. Where politics meets historylobal.com or you can leave a message with Tessa on the Instagram page at. Where Politics meets history. Goodbye.

[Natasha Clark]

This has been a global production.