Is flipping a coin really the most fair way to decide something?

Summary

Episode Summary: "Is Flipping a Coin Really the Most Fair Way to Decide Something?"

Podcast: Who Smarted? - Educational Podcast for Kids
Host: Atomic Entertainment / Starglow Media
Episode Title: Is flipping a coin really the most fair way to decide something?
Release Date: April 14, 2025

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Introduction: The Classic Dilemma of Decision-Making

The episode kicks off with a relatable scenario: choosing an ice cream flavor at a parlor. The Trusty Narrator sets the stage by engaging listeners with the common dilemma of having too many choices. A young Kid voices the struggle:

[00:01] Trusty Narrator: "Hey, smarty pants. Pretend you're at an ice cream parlor getting dessert. There's just one problem. There's so many delicious flavors, you're having trouble deciding what to get."

The hosts delve into various methods children use to make decisions, emphasizing the popularity of flipping a coin as a quick and seemingly fair solution.

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Exploring Coin Flipping: History and Origins

The discussion transitions into the rich history of coin flipping, illustrating its longstanding role in human decision-making. The episode reveals that coin flipping dates back over 2,000 years, originating in Ancient Rome with the game Navia aut Kaput. The Trusty Narrator provides historical insights:

[02:25] Trusty Narrator: "Coin flipping has been around for over 2000 years, yet it still remains one of the most popular ways to decide between two choices."

The podcast elaborates on how medieval England adopted coin flipping, known then as "cross and pile," referencing the symbols featured on coins of that era.

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Modern Applications of Coin Flipping

1. Political Elections and Decisions

Coin flipping isn't limited to playground decisions. The episode highlights its role in political scenarios worldwide:

[06:38] Honest Dave: "Well, would you look at that. I've pulled ahead by a tail."

Notable instances include:

• United States:

  • Albion, Idaho mayoral election in 2013.
  • Democratic Party primary in Alaska in 2006.

• Other Countries:

  • Canada, the Philippines, and the United Kingdom utilize coin flipping to break electoral ties.

2. Sports and Competitions

The hosts explore how coin flipping is integral to sports:

[07:11] Referee: "Could I borrow a quarter?"

In the context of the National Football League (NFL):

[07:17] Referee: "I need that quarter for the coin toss at the beginning of the game."

Key points include:

• Since 1892, the NFL has used coin flips to determine game possession.
• The Super Bowl features custom commemorative coins for the toss.

Additionally, the episode touches on the historical use of coin flips in other sports like cricket and the NBA:

[08:57] Referee: "Don't forget basketball."

It recounts the NBA's brief experiment with coin flipping in the draft system before transitioning to a lottery to prevent teams from manipulating outcomes.

3. Influential Moments Influenced by Coin Toss

A fascinating anecdote involves the Wright brothers, who used a coin toss to decide who would make the first powered flight:

[09:49] Trusty Narrator: "Can you imagine flipping a coin to decide who would be the first person to fly an engine powered airplane? Well, that's exactly what the Wright brothers did."

Although Wilbur initially lost the toss, Orville's successful flight solidified history.

Another notable story covers the naming of Portland, Oregon, decided by a best-of-three coin toss:

[11:32] Referee: "Heads. One vote for Portland."
[11:35] Honest Dave: "Tails. That's one vote for Boston."
[11:39] Referee: "Heads. I win. Welcome to Portland, Oregon."

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The Science Behind Coin Flipping: Probability and Bias

The episode delves into the mathematics of coin flipping, challenging the common belief that it's a perfectly fair 50/50 chance. Referencing mathematician Percy Diaconis from Stanford University, the hosts discuss subtle biases:

[15:45] Trusty Narrator: "According to Percy Diaconis, a math professor at Stanford University, there is a natural bias that occurs when coins are flipped depending on which side was facing up at the time of the flip."

Key insights include:

• Slight Bias: A coin flipped with heads facing up tends to land heads about 51% of the time.
• Flipping Techniques: The motion of flipping, including circular motion akin to tossing a pizza, influences outcomes.
• Spinning Coins: Spinning a penny can bias results, with tails appearing roughly 80% of the time due to the weight distribution.

Listeners are encouraged to conduct their own experiments to observe these biases:

[15:47] Trusty Narrator: "Decide whether you're going to start with heads facing up or tails facing up. Then flip a coin 100 times with that side facing up first. And keep track of how many times the coin lands back on its original side."

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Interactive Fun: Engaging the Audience

Throughout the episode, interactive segments keep young listeners engaged. Characters like the Referee and Honest Dave participate in playful exchanges, reinforcing learning through humor:

[17:28] Honest Dave: "That doesn't feel very honest, trusty narrator."
[17:31] Trusty Narrator: "You're right. Sorry, Honest Dave."

These interactions not only entertain but also reinforce the episode's educational content, making complex topics accessible and enjoyable for children.

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Conclusion: Rethinking the Fairness of Coin Flipping

The episode wraps up by challenging the notion of coin flipping as an entirely fair method. It emphasizes the importance of understanding underlying probabilities and encourages critical thinking in everyday decision-making.

[17:53] Smarty Pants: "Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa."
[17:56] Trusty Narrator: "Ugh. I landed right on my face."

This humorous conclusion leaves listeners reflecting on the true fairness of coin flipping, blending scientific inquiry with lighthearted fun.

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Credits and Production Notes

The episode concludes with acknowledgments to the creative team:

[18:21] Trusty Narrator: "Coin Flipping was written by Brad Deprima and voiced by Katie Lucastain, Adam Tex Davis, Kim Davis, Max Kamasky, and Jerry Colbert. Technical direction and sound design by Josh Hahn. Who Smarted is recorded and mixed at the Relic Room Studios. Our associate producer is Max Kamasky. The theme song is by Brian Suarez with lyrics written and performed by Adam Tex Davis. Who's Smarter was created and produced by Adam Tex Davis and Jerry Colbert. This has been an Atomic Entertainment production."

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Key Takeaways

• Historical Significance: Coin flipping has been a pivotal decision-making tool for over two millennia, influencing everything from ancient games to modern elections and sports.
• Modern Usage: Beyond personal decisions, coin flips play crucial roles in political tie-breakers, sports game starts, and even historical events like the Wright brothers' first flight.
• Probability Insights: While often perceived as a fair 50/50 chance, subtle biases in flipping techniques can affect outcomes, challenging the fairness assumption.
• Engaging Education: Through humor and interactive dialogue, the episode effectively teaches children about probability, history, and critical thinking in an entertaining manner.

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the episode's exploration of coin flipping, blending educational content with engaging storytelling to provide young listeners with a deeper understanding of a seemingly simple yet historically rich practice.

Transcript

[Trusty Narrator]

Hey, smarty pants. Pretend you're at an ice cream parlor getting dessert. There's just one problem. There's so many delicious flavors, you're having trouble deciding what to get.

[Kid]

Can I taste cookies and cream?

[Smarty Pants]

Ooh.

[Kid]

And strawberry swirl. Ooh. And mint chip and chocolate cherry. A banana.

[Trusty Narrator]

Say you even narrow it down to two. Hmm.

[Kid]

It's either fudge brownie or chocolate chocolate chip.

[Trusty Narrator]

But let's say you can only have one. How would you choose? Go ahead, call out some answers. Uh huh. Uh huh. I heard a few of you say, eeny, meeny, miny, moe. Well, that could work, but it takes a while and you're already holding up the line.

[Referee]

Come on, kid. Hurry up. I'm trying to get some ice cream here.

[Trusty Narrator]

What else?

[Smarty Pants]

Oh.

[Trusty Narrator]

Rock, paper, scissors is a good way to decide something if you're playing with another person. But not so great here. Aha. I heard someone say it. Why not flip a coin?

[Kid]

Heads, vanilla fudge brownie. Tails, Chocolate chocolate chip. Heads. Vanilla fudge brownie, please.

[Referee]

Finally.

[Ice Cream Server]

Great. Would you like that in a cup or a cone?

[Kid]

Uh oh. I think I need to flip again.

[Referee]

Ugh.

[Trusty Narrator]

Coin flipping has been around for over 2000 years, yet it still remains one of the most popular ways to decide between two choices. While it's mostly used for settling simple decisions or deciding which way to go.

[Referee]

Heads, we turn left. Tails, we turn right.

[Trusty Narrator]

Flipping a coin is also used in professional sports politics, and it was even used to decide the name of a major US City.

[Referee]

Whoa.

[Trusty Narrator]

But when did coin flipping first start? How is coin flipping used today? And what is the probability or chance of a coin landing on either heads or tails? Heads, it's a whiff of science. Tails, it's a whiff of history. On who smarted?

[Referee]

Who's smarted? Who's smart? Is it you? Is it me? Is it science or history? Listen up, everyone.

[Trusty Narrator]

We make smarting lots of fun.

[Referee]

But who's smarted?

[Trusty Narrator]

Hey, smartypants Trusty here with a special.

[Smarty Pants]

Mission for all the smartypants listening. But unlike a top secret mission, this.

[Trusty Narrator]

Mission requires you to tell everyone. That's right. Your job is to spread the word.

[Smarty Pants]

About who's smarted so we can keep growing and bringing you awesome new episodes.

[Trusty Narrator]

To qualify for this mission, let's play a little game. Who do you know that would love.

[Smarty Pants]

Who smarted but doesn't listen to the show? Is it A, a friend, B, a teacher, C, a relative, like your favorite cousin? Or D, a neighbor who loves fun facts?

[Trusty Narrator]

Got someone in mind? Great. Question 2. Where and when will you tell this person about who's smarted?

[Smarty Pants]

Is it A, on a play date, B, at school, C, in the car.

[Trusty Narrator]

Or D, on the phone? Pick one, make a plan, stick to.

[Smarty Pants]

It, and best of all, complete this.

[Trusty Narrator]

Not so top secret mission.

[Smarty Pants]

I'm counting on you, smartypants.

[Trusty Narrator]

The more people you tell, the bigger we grow. Which means a lot more smarting for you. Okay, smarty pants, let's see how well you were paying attention. How long ago did coin flipping first begin? Did you say over 2,000 years ago? Nice job. But where? Why? It's where many things began back then. Ancient Rome. And it started with a game called Navia aut kaput. Smarty pants, can you guess what navea aut kaput means? Is it A, heads or tails, B, ship or head, or C, cross and pile? If you said heads or tails, sorry, you're thinking more of modern coins. The correct answer is B, ships or heads. That's because ancient Roman coins had a ship on one side and the emperor's head on the other. However, if you said C cross and pile, you would be correct. In medieval England, where coin flipping was known as cross and pile because coins had a cross on one side and a hammer, another name for a pile on the other. Nowadays we know coin flipping as heads or tails. The reasoning behind the name is pretty simple. Heads refers to the side of the coin with a person's head on it, and tails refers to the opposite side. No, not because there's a tail on it, but because tails is the opposite of heads. The coin flip game can be played two ways and can be played by one or two people. If it's two people, one person flips the coin into the air while the other person calls heads or tails. If the person calls out heads and the head side lands face up, that person is the winner. But if it lands on tails, the other person wins. If you're playing by yourself or you're trying to decide something, you might assign something to heads and something else to tails. In that case, you're flipping a coin to let fate decide the answer. Hey, smarty pants. Let's play our own game of heads or tails. I'll flip a coin and if it lands on heads, we'll continue smarting. And if it lands on tails, I'll sing a song about belly buttons. Alright, here we go. I'll flip the coin in three, two, one. Oh, it's heads. Sorry, smarty pants. If you were hoping for a belly button song, you'll just have to wait. Okay, so you've learned when and where coin flipping started, but what are some ways coin flipping is used today? Well, in countries like Canada, the Philippines and the United Kingdom, coin flipping is actually used as a tie breaking vote in political elections. That's right. If the two leading candidates have the same number of votes, they flip a coin to see who wins.

[Honest Dave]

Well, would you look at that. I've pulled ahead by a tail.

[Trusty Narrator]

Believe it or not, coin flipping has also decided elections in the United States. In 2013, a coin flip was used.

[Smarty Pants]

To elect the mayor of Albion, Idaho.

[Trusty Narrator]

And in 2006, a coin flip decided the winner of the Democratic Party primary for a seat in the Alaska House of Representatives. Of course, some of you may be familiar with how coin flipping is used in modern sports.

[Referee]

Excuse me, trusty Narrator Uh, yes, guy.

[Trusty Narrator]

Wearing a black and white striped shirt.

[Referee]

Could I borrow a quarter?

[Trusty Narrator]

A quarter? Is it for the vending machine?

[Referee]

Nope. I'm on my way to work and I'd be in big trouble if I showed up without one.

[Trusty Narrator]

You need a quarter for work? Are you a quarterback?

[Referee]

Haha, good one. But no. I'm a referee for the National Football League, or NFL for short.

[Smarty Pants]

Ah, of course.

[Trusty Narrator]

That explains your shirt and the whistle. I'm assuming you need that quarter for the coin toss at the beginning of the game.

[Referee]

That's right. NARRATOR. Since 1892, a coin has been flipped before every National Football League game to determine which team starts with possession of the football. Normally, referees use everyday quarters, but for the super bowl, they mint custom commemorative coins from gold or silver for the opening coin toss.

[Trusty Narrator]

Smarty pants. True or false? Football was the first. First sport to use a coin toss at the beginning of the game. Did you say true? Incorrect.

[Referee]

Please don't touch my whistle.

[Trusty Narrator]

Sorry. The first sport to use a coin.

[Smarty Pants]

Toss was actually cricket.

[Trusty Narrator]

No, not that kind of cricket. Cricket is an English sport that uses a bat and ball. Kind of like baseball. Starting in 1744, coin tosses were the official way to determine which team batted first. Today you can find coin tosses in a variety of professional sports like soccer, tennis, Australian Rules football and volleyball.

[Referee]

Don't forget basketball.

[Trusty Narrator]

I don't remember seeing any coin flips at a basketball game. Do you, smartypants?

[Referee]

That's because coin flips are only part of the NBA draft. Back in 1966, the National Basketball association, or NBA, introduced coin flipping into their draft system. The worst teams in each conference would flip a coin to decide who was given the first overall draft pick for that year. Seems fair, right? It wasn't in 1984, the NBA banned coin flipping and introduced a lottery system after several teams were accused of purposely losing their regular season games in order to have the worst record and become eligible for the first pick. Coin flip.

[Trusty Narrator]

Deciding the fate of a basketball team is no joke. But can you imagine flipping a coin to decide who would be the first person to fly an engine powered airplane? Well, that's exactly what the Wright brothers did. In 1903, in the town of Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, Wilbur and Orville Wright flipped a coin to see who would attempt the first airborne flight. Wilbur won the toss, but during his first attempt, he crashed after only a few seconds. Don't worry, he was okay. Three days later, Orville would successfully pilot the airplane over 120ft, giving him the title of the first person to fly an engine powered airplane. Sometimes it pays to lose, but other times, a winning coin toss can literally change the course of history. Smarty pants, can you guess which U.S. city's name was decided by a coin toss? Is the answer A, Portland, Oregon. B, Boston, Massachusetts. Or C, Coyne, Iowa? If you said C, Coin, Iowa. Sorry, that's not it. But it is a real city with about 200 people living in it. And if you said A, Portland, Oregon. You're right. In 1845, pioneers Asa Lovejoy and Frances Pettigrove flipped a coin to decide the name of their new Oregon town. Asa Lovejoy was from Massachusetts and wanted to name the new settlement Boston. Frances Pettigrove was from Portland, Maine. So it's no surprise he wanted to name the new town Portland. They decided to make it a best of three flips contest.

[Referee]

Heads. One vote for Portland.

[Honest Dave]

Tails. That's one vote for Boston.

[Referee]

Heads. I win. Welcome to Portland, Oregon. Keep it weird, dude.

[Honest Dave]

Fiddlesticks. I should have known. Heads always wins.

[Trusty Narrator]

Smarty pants, have you ever heard someone say, heads always win or tails never fails? When it comes to flipping a coin, these coin flipping expressions seem like just a way to justify picking your favorite side of the coin. But is it actually true that one side of the coin is more likely to land facing up than the other? The answer after this quick break.

[Smarty Pants]

Have you ever had that moment where your kiddo looks up at you from.

[Trusty Narrator]

The kitchen table, frustrated, stuck on their.

[Smarty Pants]

Homework, and you want so badly to help them, but you just can't. Not because you don't care, but because school is different now, Math looks like a foreign language, the grammar rules have changed.

[Trusty Narrator]

Not to mention you're juggling five other.

[Smarty Pants]

Things and dinner is burning. Every parent I know has been here that's why I want to tell you about something that can make your life easier. Ixl. It's an online learning program that helps your child with math, English, science, and social studies from Pre K to 12th grade.

[Trusty Narrator]

But while that would be enough, what.

[Smarty Pants]

Makes it extra special is how it adapts to your child. It figures out what they need and guides them gently toward mastery. And Just like WhoSmarted, IXL makes learning fun. Your kids get instant feedback and even earn rewards. So if you're trying to set your child up for success, then set them up with ixl. It works and it's fun. And now who smarted listeners get 20% off when you sign up [e-mail] smarted that's ixl.com smarted 20% off so you can get the most effective learning program out there at the best price and.

[Trusty Narrator]

Be the helpful parent that you were meant to be.

[Smarty Pants]

Okay, let's be honest. Life is a lot right now. Between school drop offs, back to back meetings, half folded laundry, and texts you forgot to reply to, who has time to launch that business idea that's been living in your Notes app since 2021? Especially with that one thing standing between you and finally getting your business out into the world. A website.

[Trusty Narrator]

That part always feels like a brick wall.

[Smarty Pants]

You want it to look professional. You want it to work. And you don't want to spend a lot of money on it.

[Trusty Narrator]

That's why I'm telling you.

[Smarty Pants]

Use Squarespace. With Squarespace, it's as easy as Tell it what your idea is. Pick a style you love.

[Trusty Narrator]

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[Smarty Pants]

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[Trusty Narrator]

This is the sign for you to build yours.

[Smarty Pants]

Go to squarespace.com smarted and use code smarted for for a free trial and 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain.

[Trusty Narrator]

You don't need more time. You just need the right tool.

[Smarty Pants]

That's Squarespace.

[Kid]

I wore winter boots every day for two years. I hate climbing trees.

[Ice Cream Server]

I'm Debra Goldstein, host of the podcast the Big Fib. And half of those statements were indeed fibs. On every episode of the Big Fib, we bring on two grownups. One is an expert and the other is a liar. And It' the job of our human child contestant to help us figure out who is who, because no one can spot a liar better than a kid. We've had episodes on everything from Minecraft to mythology and from Lego to libraries. Join me and my robot co host Lisa on the Big Fib on Apple podcasts or on gzmshows.com now back to who smarted?

[Trusty Narrator]

Okay, smartypants, say you wanted to win a coin toss. True or false? One side of the coin is more likely to land facing up than the other. The answer is true.

[Referee]

Whoa.

[Trusty Narrator]

According to Percy Diaconis, a math professor at Stanford University, there is a natural bias that occurs when coins are flipped depending on which side was facing up at the time of the flip. For example, if a coin is flipped with heads facing up, it will land back on heads approximately 51 out of 100 times. That's not a crazy advantage, but it does mean the probability or likelihood of flipping a coin. And correctly guessing the side it lands on isn't exactly 50. 50. Try for yourself, Smartypants. Decide whether you're going to start with heads facing up or tails facing up. Then flip a coin 100 times with that side facing up first. And keep track of how many times the coin lands back on its original side.

[Honest Dave]

Does the same hold true for crosses.

[Referee]

Or piles or ships and heads?

[Trusty Narrator]

Yes. Also, how you flip the coin also affects the probability of it landing on its original side. The same study found that coins, when flipped, don't just move end to end, but also in a circular motion, like a tossed pizza.

[Smarty Pants]

A pizza.

[Trusty Narrator]

If you want to increase your odds of a coin landing on your side, try spinning a penny instead. That's right, a spinning penny will land on tails roughly 80% of the time. That's because the head side of a penny is slightly heavier than the tail side due to the portrait of Abraham Lincoln on the penny's head.

[Honest Dave]

Four score and seven flips ago, most came up tails.

[Trusty Narrator]

When the penny is spun, it usually falls face down. So if you call tails, you'll win.

[Honest Dave]

That doesn't feel very honest, trusty narrator.

[Trusty Narrator]

You're right. Sorry, Honest Dave.

[Honest Dave]

Hey, I want to hear your belly button song. Let's flip for it. Heads, you don't have to sing. Tails, you do.

[Trusty Narrator]

Uh, sure, but I gave that referee my last quarter.

[Honest Dave]

That's okay. I used to be a wrestler. I can flip you for it.

[Smarty Pants]

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.

[Trusty Narrator]

Ugh. I landed right on my face.

[Honest Dave]

Heads. You win.

[Trusty Narrator]

A double shout out to.

[Smarty Pants]

Yamna and Mena and Cardiff, Wales. We hear you love the funny jokes and made who Smarted part of your.

[Trusty Narrator]

Morning and night routine.

[Smarty Pants]

Now that's what we we call dedication. Thanks for smarting with us every day this episode.

[Trusty Narrator]

Coin Flipping was written by Brad deprima and voiced by Katie Lucastain. Adam Tex Davis, Kim Davis, Max Kamasky and Jerry Colbert. Technical direction and sound design by Josh Hahn. Who Smarted is recorded and mixed at the Relic Room Studios. Our associate producer is Max Kamasky. The theme song is by Brian Suarez with lyrics written and performed by Adam Tex Davis. Who's Smarter was created and produced by Adam Tex Davis and Jerry Colbert. This has been an Atomic Entertainment production.