The Visionaries: Picking Up The Pieces (Part 1)

Summary

Podcast Summary: We Have Ways of Making You Talk Episode: The Visionaries: Picking Up The Pieces (Part 1)
Release Date: April 20, 2026
Hosts: Al Murray & James Holland

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Episode Overview

In this first installment of "The Visionaries" miniseries, Al Murray and James Holland step outside their usual WWII boundaries to examine how the U.S. approach to global order shifted at the close of WWII and into the post-war era. They focus on the transition from Franklin D. Roosevelt to Harry S. Truman and the ideological and practical groundwork that shaped the modern western world. They set the context by reflecting on Truman’s 1947 doctrine, the decline of the British Empire, and the evolution of democracy, then trace back to the roots of these shifts in the world before WWI, the interwar period, and the aftermath of the First World War.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: Truman’s 1947 Speech and Its Significance

• [03:53] Al Murray notes the unusual starting point, explaining the "Visionaries" series aims to connect WWII’s context, causes, and consequences, especially through the eyes of U.S. leaders.
  • "We've never landed further down the runway than that. But here we are in 1947." — Murray [04:01]
• James Holland frames the post-WWII order:
  • "Democracy that we've been enjoying since 1945 here in the West is a progressive form... first laid out by Roosevelt and then by Truman." [06:34]
• Discussion of the Truman Doctrine as a watershed moment: U.S. takes over as global guarantor of democracy and order, moving beyond isolationism (the Monroe Doctrine) to international responsibility. [08:32]

2. The World in Ruins and American Ascendance

• Europe is economically shattered, political instability is rife, Britain is in decline, and the U.S. stands as the new hegemon.
  • "Everyone apart from the Americans is broke. Europe has been smashed to pieces." — Murray [07:45]
• Britain cannot support Greece and Turkey anymore, leading to U.S. intervention to prevent further communist expansion. [09:09]
• Truman sees U.S. security as tied to global stability, even in places disconnected from everyday American life:
  • "Our own security is absolutely now... inextricably linked... to the security of the wider Western world." — Holland [12:28]

3. Learning from History: Avoiding Past Mistakes

• Comparisons are made between the aftermaths of both world wars, with explicit warnings against repeating the economic and political failures after WWI (notably Versailles).
  • "They're also trying to not repeat the economic errors of Versailles." — Murray [13:32]
• Truman recognizes that financial integration and support of democracies are essential for long-term peace [15:02].
  • "Financially prosperous democracies lead to politically stable democracies. And... there is a far higher chance of long-term global peace." — Holland [15:23]
• Reflections on more recent “once in a lifetime” events (e.g. Brexit, pandemic, wars) to underscore ongoing instability:
  • "My bank manager says, 'How many once in a lifetime events have we had in the last five, six years?'" — Murray [16:42]

4. Visionaries and Their Flawed Utopias

• The limitations of utopian visions — critical look at both Wilson’s and Truman’s international ideals and their selective application.
• The contradiction of self-determination and racism under Wilson, and the persistent structural double standards of the era. [36:43–39:14]

5. From Wilson’s Fourteen Points to Versailles and Its Outcomes

• Wilson’s entry into WWI is motivated by idealism about democracy and self-determination, but his 14 Points collide with realpolitik from Britain and France at Versailles. [41:16–45:08]
• The struggle with the creation of new nations, particularly in Eastern Europe, muddled by ethnic complexity—excellent analogy by Murray:
  • "Middle Europa is basically a fruitcake...there are bunches of raisins here and bits of cherry there and... patches of rum at the bottom." — Murray [45:49]
• Wilson’s failure to secure lasting peace or U.S. commitment to the League of Nations:
  • "When Congress vote on entry into the League... it is defeated 53 votes to 38. And the Wilsonian vision for world peace is completely crumbling." — Holland [55:29]

6. Economic Turmoil: Gold Standard, Hyperinflation, and American Boom

• In-depth explanation of the gold standard’s history and its centrality to global stability and later woes.
• Britain and France’s postwar efforts to return to economic equilibrium lead to social unrest, wage cuts, and the General Strike (UK), while France devalues the franc. [62:19–63:05]
• German hyperinflation and the cyclical, interconnected nature of reparations, loans, and economic (in)stability.
  • "In November 1923... the US dollar is worth 4.2 trillion marks. They've got wheelbarrows of cash." — Murray [65:09]
• The Dawes Plan as an early example of U.S.-backed global economic stabilization, foreshadowing Marshall Aid. [68:05]

7. Interwar Stabilization... and Fragility

• By the mid-1920s, European recovery and U.S. economic dominance are evident, but the system’s fragility sets the stage for the coming Great Depression.
  • "The American economy... is nevertheless a house of cards." — Murray [70:51]
• Tease for Part 2: how the Wall Street Crash and subsequent crises will trigger profound global consequences.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• James Holland on Truman’s Speech and Leadership:
  "What he's saying here... is that our own security is absolutely now inextricably linked and bound up with the security of the wider Western world." [12:28]
• Al Murray’s Economic Analogy:
  "Middle Europa is basically a fruitcake ethnically... there's bunches of raisins here and bits of cherry there..." [45:49]
• On Wilson’s Idealism:
  "He's almost too idealistic, his idealism... is too straitjacketed by his very patrician kind of privileged worldview..." — Holland [37:07]
• On Economic Cycles:
  "The worse the situation gets, the more money the government prints, the worse hyperinflation becomes." — Murray [65:10]
• On Interwar Vulnerability:
  "The American economy, for all of its apparent strength... is nevertheless a house of cards, actually." — Murray [70:51]

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Important Timestamps (MM:SS)

• 03:53 – Introduction of the "Visionaries" series focus & rationale for looking beyond 1945
• 07:45 – State of postwar Europe and Britain’s decline relative to the U.S.
• 09:22 – Greece and Turkey crises, Britain’s inability to sustain order, Truman’s intervention
• 12:28 – Truman outlines U.S. interests as tied to global stability
• 13:32 – Lessons learned from the failures of Versailles and the interwar period
• 15:23 – Economic health as prerequisite for political stability and peace
• 41:16 – Wilson’s Fourteen Points: ideal vs. reality
• 45:49 – Ethnic complexity and new nations in Eastern Europe
• 55:29 – U.S. Senate’s rejection of the League of Nations; collapse of Wilson’s vision
• 65:09 – German hyperinflation crisis illustrated
• 70:51 – Foreshadowing: Wall Street Crash as the next turning point

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Tone and Language

Balances expert historical analysis with approachable anecdotes, rich metaphors, and the hosts’ signature wit. Plenty of contemporary parallels and vivid, accessible explanations make weighty topics engaging. The chemistry between Murray’s dry humour and Holland’s measured authority ensures intellectual rigor without dryness.

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Conclusion

This episode sets up a sweeping, multi-episode exploration of how visionary ideas about democracy, prosperity, and peace collided with the realities of power, economy, and human frailty after the world wars. By spotlighting figures like Truman, Roosevelt, and Wilson—and linking historical patterns to today—the hosts invite listeners to see "the peace" as a conscious, evolving project, not a foregone conclusion.

Next episode: A deep-dive into the Wall Street Crash and its role in triggering a global crisis—catch it sooner with a Patreon subscription.

Transcript

[Murray]

Thank you for listening to we have ways of making you talk. Sign up to our Patreon to receive bonus content, live streams and our weekly newsletter with money off books and museum visits as well. Plus early access to all live show tickets. That's patreon.com wehaveways. It's time to refresh your yard during Spring Backyard Days at the Home Depot. Get low prices guaranteed on propane grills starting at $179 like the next grill 3 burner gas grill. Or get $50 off a select Weber Spirit Grill and bring big flavor to your backyard. Then set the scene with Hampton Bay String lights that bring it all together. Shop Spring backyard days for seven days at the Home Depot now through May 6th exclusion supply seehomedepot.com Pricematch for details

[James Holland]

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[Murray]

Some Follow the Noise Bloomberg follows the

[James Holland]

money because behind every headline is a bottom line. Whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto dollar swings, there's a money side to every story. And when you see the money side, you understand what others miss. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe [e-mail]. At the present moment in world history, nearly every nation must choose between alternative ways of life. The choice is too often not a free one. One way of life is based upon the will of a majority and is distinguished by free institutions, representative government, free elections, guarantees of individual liberty, freedom of speech and religion, and freedom from political oppression. The second way of life is based upon the will of a minority forcibly imposed upon the majority. It relies upon terror and oppression, a controlled press and radio, fixed elections, and the suppression of personal freedoms. I believe that it must be the policy of the United States to support free peoples who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures. I believe that we must assist free peoples to work out their destinies in their own way. I believe that our help should be primarily through economic and financial aid, which is essential to economic stability and orderly political processes. The world is not static and the status quo is not sacred. But we cannot allow changes in the status quo in violation of the Charter of the United nations by such methods as coercion or by such subterfuges as political infiltration in helping free and independent nations to maintain their freedom, the United States will be giving effect to the principles of the Charter of the United Nations. And that of course was Harry S. Truman, the President of the United States, in a speech to Congress on 12th March 1947.

[Murray]

Welcome everyone to we have Ways to make youe Talk with Me. I'm Murray and James Holland, your Second World War podcast. Although as you, the sharp eared amongst you will have noticed, that's from 1947. We've gone off piste, Jim.

[James Holland]

What?

[Murray]

And in this series entitled the Visionaries we, we want to look at two great figures of American history, of world history, Harry S. Truman and his predecessor Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and look at their thinking and their approach to world politics at the time of the great world crisis, the Second World War, in the time leading up to it and the time that follows it, and the conclusions they drew and the action they took as a result of those conclusions. And what's interesting about that speech is I was reminded of something the other day, Jim. I went to see my parents for lunch and they had Daniel Todman's, one of the volume of Daniel Todman's Britain's War on their coffee table. Right, Fine book, fine book. And he starts in 1937 and he ends in 1947 with his twin volumes. Right. That's when the war kind of ends, starts and begins actually for Britain. Yeah. And so that you have, that you have come here, come in with 1947. I will allow by the Todman Rule because of, because you know, we only go to 1945, we've never landed further down the Runway than that. But here we are in 1947.

[James Holland]

Well, I just think sometimes it's, you know, what we've done for the first seven years of our existence is to look at the Second World War within the boundaries of the Second World War. We very, very occasionally crept out of that with Japan and so on. We did look at the war in China, didn't we? Which started obviously in 1937. But I think it's really useful for us and for anyone who's listening to this and listens to the podcast regularly to see the Second World War in its context, why it came about, some of the conditions which prompted and led to the road to war and some of the consequences. And I think one of the things that really has struck me is that the democracy that we've been enjoying since 1945, here in the west is a progressive form of democracy that was laid out first by Roosevelt and then by Truman and which has been adopted by the west kind of across the board. And obviously all of this is, you know, this system which we've been living since 1945 here in the west, has slightly been tested in recent years. Mark Carney, the Prime Minister of Canada, has been talking about the rupturing of the world order and all the rest of it. So what was that world order and how did it come about? And I think this is a really good moment in our history to kind of look at that and to consider this and to see the Second World War where it sits in that wider context. So that's the point of this series. And actually we'll start with 1947, because let's just set the stall. What's going on? Why is Truman making that speech on 12 March 1947? And then we're going to go back to actually before the First World War, have a look at the First World War, look at the rise of politics and the political system in the United States, what follows the peace of the First World War, and how the conditions for what becomes the Second World War come about. And I think all of it is all really meaty, juicy stuff. Then we're going to have a look at the war itself and some of the big themes which we've touched on time and time again in the podcast. But let's lay it out in a kind of really clear way and then we'll look at the immediate aftermath and how we've got to where we are today. So that's the plan. And I'm hoping people will find this very interesting to have this kind of broad sweep and have this wider context from where we are now and where the Second World War sits. That's the point of it, I think. So, yes. To go back to 1947, the world is in a bad way despite the peace.

[Murray]

Well, yes, I mean, everyone apart from the Americans is broke. Europe has been smashed to pieces and needs to be rebuilt. There's colossal political instability, particularly in the countries that have been conquered by the Germans and then liberated. That lots of them are in a sort of vacuum, aren't they? And I think part of the story of the first half of the 20th century is about the British Empire, its rise, because it's bigger than it ever was at any point after the First World War. It's rise and then it's precipitous decline, its collapse, its fall. Churchill of Course. Said, I don't want to be the prime minister, preside over the, you know, the end of the British empire. But news flash, he was. And the decline in British power and it being eclipsed by the United States is the story of the first half of the 20th century, isn't it?

[James Holland]

Yeah.

[Murray]

And the consequences of the two world wars is that change. And what's interesting is that Truman, in this speech, is facing up to. That is facing up to the fact that there is this new mantle of American responsibility that there. There can be no more just Monroe doctrine, just their backyard. The whole world is now their backyard because of their predominant position as the new. As the new global hegemon. And Britain's broke. Turkey's Greece. And Greece and Turkey are butting up against each other because they're. They're broke. Even more broke than Britain.

[James Holland]

Well, they are, but they've also had this. Greece has had this terrible civil war. It's had the civil war from the moment the Germans leave in 1943.

[Murray]

Yeah, yeah.

[James Holland]

And then it's left over to the Italians. But. But this is going on with sort of, you know, communists and dates, you know, partisans.

[Murray]

Yeah.

[James Holland]

Fighting against government. All rest of the British come and intervene at the end of 1944 into 1945, and peace is declared and, you know, new government set up, the king's restored and all the rest of it. But. But it then erupts again. And the problem is, is that financially, by the spring of 1947, Greece is about to collapse completely, and so is Turkey. And Britain has been trying to sort out Greece. And it has been Britain that has been championing Greek efforts to kind of avoid the takeover of the communists and getting it behind the iron curtain. But it can't anymore. It just doesn't have the money. It can't prop it up anymore. So Britain has appealed to the United States and saying, you need to help, or else communism is going to spread. The iron curtain's going to spread. Churchill's done his iron curtain speech the previous year, previous March 1946. And we'll get onto that a little bit later on in the series. But they're about to collapse. And so what do you do? And so Truman's saying, well, I think we should bail them out, because if we can stabilize them, then they'll be prospering. That will actually help us, but it'll help stabilize global economics, which will stabilize global politics, which will help America in the long run. And we can afford to do it right now. So this is an investment Effectively for future income, for future riches. And so he makes this incredible speech and lays it out. And the interesting thing is Truman has actually lost the midterms the previous November. On paper, a lame duck president, but this is still an era of bipartisan politics. And actually the loss of the midterms means that he's in a way liberated because he's got nothing to lose anymore. And so he's just able to pursue things that he really believes in. And he really believes in this big order which, as we will see, his origins really come from Roosevelt. But he asks lots of rhetorical questions in this speech. He points out that production and incomes are increasing, unemployment is at all time low, Modern conveniences are increasingly accessible to ordinary Americans. They had been in the 1920s, the advent of the car and all the rest of it, but now it's fridges, telephone, you know, televisions, telephones, you know, central heating, all this kind of stuff. And he goes, but, you know, why would you divert focus from domestic prosperity towards two countries that most Americans aren't connected to? And he explains, he said, I would not recommend it, except that the alternative is much more serious. If we falter in our leadership, we. We may endanger the peace of the world and we shall surely endanger the welfare of this nation. So that's the point. That's what he's saying here. He's saying that our own security is absolutely now inextricably linked and bound up with the security of the wider Western world. Yeah, and I think that's really interesting. It takes a big man to kind of recognize that, because, you know, America is a vast place. It's got, you know, it's 50 plus states. I mean, I remember traveling across it in 1990, 93, zigzagging around in a Ford Ranger pickup truck. And it's very clear once you get past Eastern seaboard states and before you get to the Sierra Nevada again, that in that huge hinterland of the Midwest and the Deep south and Texas and New Mexico and Arizona and Utah and all the rest of it, there is a world which is very adrift from international affairs and global politics and global economics. And it's very easy for Americans to just think, well, why should I be worrying about Greece or Turkey or frankly, Iran in today's context? And of course, this is why you need a president who understands this, because he can explain why America's interests are connected to the international world. And particularly so in 1947, I mean,

[Murray]

the other thing, and we're going to lay all this out is also all the politicians kicking around at the end of the Second World War are very, very aware of what happened after the First World War, which is, you know, that you put your economy into overdrive in order to meet the requirements of a war. And then after the war there's going to be a bust because effectively you set up a boom and that there will be a bust. And as well as getting the sort of peace treaties right and the aftermath. Right. Which is the thing that they're all trying to not repeat the Versailles era.

[James Holland]

Yeah.

[Murray]

They're also trying to not repeat the economic errors of Versailles because, you know, America looks back to itself after the First World War, as we'll see, extends the financial power around the world, but extremely light, conditionally, and in a. In a fragile way, almost temperamental way, as we'll see. And that Truman's clearly thinking we're. We're much, much better off, like, making sure we're financially integrated with each other, because when we tried it before and we weren't, it didn't work, and it got us into this situation again.

[James Holland]

Yeah.

[Murray]

And I think the First World War and the Second World War are separated by the kind of space of time between us and 9 11. Right. And I don't know about you, but 911 sometimes feels like a very long time ago and sometimes feels five minutes ago. Right. I'm in the same office. I remember putting the telly on and going, jesus Christ, what's happening? Right.

[James Holland]

Yeah.

[Murray]

And the view out of my office window is exactly the same.

[James Holland]

Yeah.

[Murray]

So the view out of Truman out of the White House window is exactly the same in 1947 as it was 25 years after the aftermath of the First World War, that they're thinking in the same terms. They're thinking, how do we avoid, you know, do we don't want. Rinse, repeat. And also the American economy, the uplift of. The effect of the Second World War, of arming the world, of being the arsenal of democracy, is you do now have mass production and all sorts of consumer items. And what are you going to do with those factories? You don't want those factories going broke, falling in on themselves in another bow wave of economic crisis, do you?

[James Holland]

No, you absolutely don't. But a key part of that is exports and your international markets. What Truman understands and what Roosevelt of Oymond understands, as we shall see, is that financially prosperous democracies lead to politically stable democracies. And when you've got financially prosperous and politically stable democracies, there is a far higher chance of long term global peace. That is the key to what Roosevelt is trying to do before the war and what Truman is trying to do after the war. And that's what this is.

[Murray]

And this is why you want to talk about this, isn't it? Yes, this is why you want to talk about it. Because, you know, we've had the crash in 2008, 2009.

[James Holland]

Well, an Iraq war before that, which was financially disastrous.

[Murray]

Well, yes, I mean, I, I mean I would say that the Iraq war causes the 2008 crash, that they are not unrelated.

[James Holland]

Yeah.

[Murray]

In fact 9, 11 causes the Iraq war causes the 2008 crash, causes the, you know, the torrents of upheaval and you know, populism. And of course there'll be people who say, oh you, populism is a pejorative and is used as a way of talking about politics in order to sort of blackened people. But, but basically you end up with, with faster running currents of politics of, and people, people worrying about social cohesion that goes with, that goes with immigration and, and, and, and stuff like that. My bank manager says, you know, how many once in a lifetime events have we had in the last five, six years? That's what he calls them once in a lifetime events. He said we'd had, you know, you've had Brexit, which is a, I think people would agree generally that's a result of political upheaval that the pandemic. A war in Europe and a trade war from, initiated by the Americans, a tariff trade war, four once in a lifetime events in the last six years.

[James Holland]

So there you are.

[Murray]

They're supposed to not come along in fours. Right. And now a war in the Gulf, another war in the Gulf, or two wars in the Gulf. So, you know, there's six once in a lifetime events in six years. And this is the thing that it throws into stark relief Truman's conclusions. And obviously it's a long time since Truman came to this conclusion and things do change and political settlements unravel. And as he said in that speech, the status quo is not sacred, the world is not static. But what we're seeing here is the status quo falling apart and the proof that the world isn't static and what is there in history to look at and go, maybe we need to pay a bit more attention to what they thought perhaps. Although, you know, the world is very different. I mean, but what we have here though is because the Nazis had to be defeated one way or another. You know, we made a deal with the devil with the Soviet Union to do it. It is an opportunity to start again in 1945, six, seven, isn't it? Globally. And Truman is all about grabbing it and all about seeing through what Roosevelt saw to, to make the world, you know, prosperous and free place as he saw it.

[James Holland]

So anyway, to get back to Truman's speech and his proposition that he puts to Congress, they, they give him a standing ovation, they applaud him to the rafters. It's a, it's a cross party agreement and they overwhelmingly approve the package for Greece and Turkey. And this is the Truman Doctrine, which then morphs into what becomes known as the Marshall Plan, which have heard of. And this is a huge aid package to help Europe rebuild and recover in the aftermath of the war. And it truly is unprecedented in its vision. I think it's really, really important to understand that this is the first time ever that when they help out Japan, when they help out Italy, when they help out Germany, this is the first time ever that the victors have financially bailed out the vanquished in world history. And we just accept it today because that's what happened. But at the time, this was truly sort of groundbreaking and ground shifting. And I think we are at an interesting time, as you've just been sort of suggesting. Al I think the other thing, of course, is that the collective memory of the brutality of the Second World War and the sacrifices that were made for freedom is receding now. It can't do anything other than that because of that generation that lived and fought through it have gone. I mean, I mean, if you think about how the Second World War was such a part of everyday vernacular when you and I were growing up in the 70s and 80s and how it just isn't now. It's still really popular and people are really interested in it, but it's, it's not references to rationing statements in the war that used to be absolutely kind of part and parcel of the weekly conversation. References to Colditz on a weekly basis, that's all gone. And I, and I think there's the slight danger of this. There was a recognition, I think in the, in the post war decades, you know, let's say up to, kind of certainly up to the, up to, up to the 50th anniversary, I would say there was a recognition that it had a fight worth fighting for, but also that you needed to make the most of the peace and be grateful for what you had. And I think there is a, we're in danger, aren't we? A little bit of complacency today of just taking things for granted. And maybe that's all being shaken up a little bit in recent years, I don't know. But you know, there's no question that democracy in the west is unstable, isn't it?

[Murray]

Yeah. Yeah. Although, I mean, this isn't the job. Of these episodes, you could argue that the Americans done, you know, the Iraq war did so much to destabilize public opinion about the use of force for diplomatic ends. And whose fault, whose fault was that? You know, the reason people don't want to take security defense seriously is the Iraq war. And I don't know how you, I don't know how you turn that oil tank around myself. I don't know if you even, I don't know if you even can. Let's go back to New York City in the start of the early, early 20th century and look at what's happening in America. Because what's happening in America is the first hard marker that the British Empire is being eclipsed because in 1930 New York becomes the busiest port in the world.

[James Holland]

I know. Isn't that amazing?

[Murray]

Yeah, it is amazing. And we've talked on previous podcasts about how when, when London is bombed, when the, when the docks in London are bombed, it's an attack on one of the greatest trading hubs in the world. But not the greatest because in 1913 it's been surpassed. Wall street is the country's financial center and becoming the world's financial center. Of course, the dollar is not yet a proper challenge to the pound. But imagine if there were a great big world crisis not long after 1913 and the pound is put under enormous pressure whether the dollar might emerge very strong compared to the pound. It's a possibility. Right. 900 cinemas, there's motor cars, there's massive advertising, billboards that are lit by electricity. There's civic buildings, art galleries, skyscrapers, philanthropic multi millionaires. A millionaire meant something back then. It's the 24th of April 1913. Woodrow Wilson hits a button in the White House to light up the Woolworth Building. And this is designed by Cass Gilbert, who's cat commissioned by the entrepreneur Frank Winfield Woolworth, who's the creator and owner of nearly 600 five and dime stores nationwide. And it's a 792 foot tall building, the Woolworth Building. It's a symbol of how America's on the up. Literally. It's literally on the up. And it's, and it's shining for the rest of the world to see.

[James Holland]

It absolutely is. And I Think the point about, you know, the visitor to New York from Europe arriving in New York in 1913 would see a city of just dazzling modernity. And all the things that we just take for granted now in New York City and Manhattan and all the skyscraper stuff, they're there in 1913, or they're starting to be there. Obviously the skyscrapers aren't quite as tall as they are now, but I mean, the Empire state is only 15 years away or something, so it really does shine, the neon glows. It really is a city of bright lights and fast moving and modern and shiny and sleek and all the rest of it and totally different to anything that has come before. So I think that's why it feels so futuristic, but it also feels like the coming nation. And meanwhile, across the Atlantic, I mean, London is still at the heart of a huge global empire, the world's largest empire ever. It's the center of the world's economy. The economist magazine in January 1913 noted that free trade and a free gold market are two of the key different advantages which we enjoy over all our competitors and the chief means by which London maintains itself as the banker and financier of the universe. And I think one of the things that's really interesting, I don't know, there's this. Many people would have heard of John Maynard Keynes, the great economist, and he's writing after the First World War, and he points out that in 1914, in the sort of early summer of 1914, that a reasonably well to do gentleman living in London can travel further and more quickly than any man has ever done before. He can eat and drink better and more varied food and drink from, you know, around the world than he's ever done before. And if he's so minded, he can telephone his friends and make, make social arrangements. And as he points out in the spring of 1914, no one assumed that this gentle progression of, of modernity and progress would ever, ever be challenged. And of course, just around the corner is the First World War.

[Murray]

Yeah, yeah.

[James Holland]

Europe, of course, has officially been at peace since Napoleon's defeat at Waterloo in June 1918 50. Although there were still colonial conflicts, there's been revolutions in Europe. There was of course, the, the Franco Prussian War and so on. There's the Prussian War against Austria, there's

[Murray]

a Prussian War against Denmark, Crimean War,

[James Holland]

I mean, but Britain has been out of this. And so while it's been out of all these wars, it's been able to kind of make the most of its own peaceful growth where at the end of the Napoleonic wars, of course, Britannia rules the ways and it has this huge fleet which no one else can touch, which means it has this unprecedented access to the globe. It's laid down all the foundations in the 18th century, and so it can progress and become this huge sort of center of, of global finance and free trade and all the rest of it. And there was also a golden age in Europe, which was roughly from the end of the Franco Prussian War in 1871 until 1914 as well, in which the rest of Europe sort of prospers and so on.

[Murray]

Yeah. Although, I mean, it's built on colonial expansion and competition, which is where the tension arises between the European imperiums. And I think Keynes is right to an extent that, you know, you might not notice what's coming. But if you, I don't know. There are people who pay attention to foreign policy now, aren't they? Who are going, hang on a minute, look what's going on here.

[James Holland]

Yeah, but, but the vast majority aren't paying any attention. That's the point.

[Murray]

Yeah, I know, I know, I know, but, but it's, it's there to be seen, the escalation, the, the, the constant. I mean, there's a, there's a pattern of constant saber rattling in the last 20 years running up to the First World War. Sort of what happens is in the end is the sabres get rattled to the point where they, they're then drawn, they're clashing. Yeah, yeah, but Germany's modernizing fast, you know, and there's a sense in Britain, isn't it? They're being caught up by, by the rest of the world and, and that, that always, that that can always tinge people's sort of feelings with the idea that they're declining rather than being caught up with. But I mean, Keynes says in 1919, and he's saying this kind of mournfully, isn't he, what an extraordinary episode in the economic progress of ban that was which came to an end in August 1914. Although of course the war is what it is. But who knows where the threads of. Because like as we're saying, America is challenging Britain economically, Germany is challenging Britain economically, France. France isn't doing badly either, let's be honest.

[James Holland]

No.

[Murray]

Then you get this gigantic disaster in the form of the, of the, of the First World War and industrialization, which is of course key to the growth of all of these economies and the sort of center point that, the thing that, you know, and you need markets abroad to, you know, to, to, to propel your Factories. This is what then changes warfare. And that war is the machine gun and barbed wire and the industrialization of, of weapons and weaponry and uniforms. And the whole thing is then turned out, turns this conflict into something new and ghastly and populations are chewed up, which of course the population of Europe has doubled in the last century, but the scale of death is four times bigger than the Napoleonic wars. So the impact on the, of the war on the world as it stands in at the start of the 20th century is completely unprecedented. And obviously, and clearly because things were changing anyway, it's going to accelerate and throw up, you know, new, new, new things, new problems for people to grapple with. I mean, I think it's, it's interesting, isn't it, that, that there is this tendency to say peace was taken for granted. You kind of think, fine, but get on with solving the problem now, which is the, you know, Keynes being wistful about 1940. Yeah, all right, okay, fine, but what's the problem now? And this is what he does, isn't it, is in 1919 he publishes his incredibly influential document called the Economic Consequences of Peace. Yes, and I think it's quite interesting that this is an era where you can write an economic tract called the Economic Consistent Peace. And it's a massive commercial success, it's a bestseller.

[James Holland]

You know, it's actually very readable. It's much more readable than you might think. I wouldn't say it's like a sort of number one bestseller kind of read. You can read it, understand it. And I mean, what's amazing about reading that book that he writes in the spring of 1919, you know, having attended the Paris peace talks and been disgusted by what he hears is just how many of the sort of, you know, the axioms he comes out with, the truisms he comes out with are still relevant to this day. I mean, you know, and again, this is all about the patterns of human behavior. The point is, for anyone thinking about parallels today, you know, history is there to help us. I mean, you know, history doesn't repeat itself. But as we've discussed many times, patterns of human behavior do, because fundamentally we're the same people. I mean, you know, the reason why Shakespeare's plays still have relevance is because people still respond to the situations in which they find themselves. In a similar way, we still love, we still hate, we feel envy, we feel resentment, we feel happiness, we feel generosity and kindness and all these sort of things, all of which feature, you know, centuries before in day to day lives. And they still do in the. In the early part of the 20th century. And lo and behold, they still do in the early part of the 21st century as well. Yeah, which is why it's still kind of, you know, amazingly personal, I think.

[Murray]

Yeah.

[James Holland]

But anyway, I mean, the strong argument is that the Treaty of Versailles, which is what comes out of the Paris peace talks, are too punitive against Germany, they're too harsh, and especially so from the French, you know, who've clearly been kind of blinded by a desire for revenge.

[Murray]

Well, this is a Keynes opinion. Right. I think there is a school of thought that says what you do is you camp an army in Berlin and you show the Germans they've been defeated. Because part of the issue that's going to arise is that the Germans don't think they've been defeated and their politicians or some of them are going to lie about that pretty quickly, the people responsible for the war are going to claim they weren't defeated. And Keynes is arguing this, I think, from a sort of. He's an intellectual who isn't involved in the cost of it, is able to rationalize an awful lot of things rather than thinking, you know, the Parisian peace that lasts 100 years in Europe that settled after Waterloo, is because the armies of Russia, Prussia, Britain and the German states involved in fighting Napoleon camp on the Champs Elysees. This is Keynes argument. I don't know that I agree with it. Right. It's the thing.

[James Holland]

But having lots of troops in Berlin is a really good idea, which they don't actually really do. What is a really bad idea, I think, is imposing reparations that simply cannot be paid. And so therefore, yeah, grinding, you know, basically making the entire country completely collapse. Because what Keynes is talking about is patterns of human behavior, which is, you know, as Isaiah, as old, as old as the trees. But the problem is, is if you grind the working classes of a nation into the dust, at some point they're going to go, I've had enough of this. And then they'll rise up, then you'll have political instability, and then you'll have a whole host of problems on your hands. So that's his beef. It's not having troops on the streets of Berlin. That's not the issue. The issue is the scale of the reparations, and it's on top of the Spanish flu.

[Murray]

But that's him being an economist, isn't it, rather than a politician.

[James Holland]

Yes.

[Murray]

And I think what's interesting here is these things, politics and economics and these things interact with. They don't sit in isolation from one another. And I think what's interesting is the politicians have wanted a political piece. You're using economics for political. As their political marker of the defeat of Germany. The economist is going, that won't work. And no one has the sense to synthesize or consider the possibilities that they're setting in motion, which I think is really, really interesting because the peace of 1815 is the. Is the thing that supposedly delivers Europe 100 years peace. And they're not looking at doing that. They're not looking at the lessons of last time.

[James Holland]

And what is really interesting is that in 1945 they do look at the lessons of 1815 and they get it broadly right. And there are any of the kind of revolutions in the west, democratic west, that there were in the 1920s and 30s. But I mean, yeah, you know, Keynes's big argument is that there's no plan for economic rehabilitation at all. There's just the reparations and grinding them into the dust. And although there's lots of nations there representing a broad swathe of peoples and political thoughts and interests from across the world, it is basically four countries which are ruling the Rus, and those are France, Britain, Italy and the United States. And as Keynes writes, he writes, it is an extraordinary fact that the fundamental economic problems of a Europe starving and disintegrating before their eyes was the one question in which it was impossible to arouse the interest of the four. I mean, he's got a point and he fears the political indifference to widespread suffering will foment discontent, instability, political upheaval that could then consequently lead to more war. And, you know, he's right, as it turns out.

[Murray]

Yeah, yeah, well, but he's steeped in the American Civil War reconstruction, the lessons that the Americans think they've learned from that. Right. Interestingly, you know, that that's his frame of reference is. Is, well, what you do is you accommodate the defeated party and kind of like give them. Kind of give them what they want. Which is the. Which is the supposed. Well, that's the. That's the political outcome of the Civil War, which of course, again is much, much closer to him than. Than it is to us now. Or it was the Second World War. Yeah. Wilson's playing a complicated hand though, isn't he? Because American involvement in the war, where they come in late, the really don't want to get involved, there's a feeling that they've been tricked into it by the British, but also they've been doing very nicely out of the war. So They've been making, taking lots of contracts, but also then lending money to the British in order to propel those contracts. His pitch or his position is quite sticky and has lots of, lots of things in it all at once. And through this he basically tries to then be idealistic at the same time as having quite a mixed bag politically in the US and his, his idea is self determination, isn't it? He's got a vision of a world with free trade, low tariffs, democracy, self determination. So what we were talking about with Truman earlier on, but the problem is he doesn't actually really have the political foundations to pull this off. And of course his commitment to self determination is pretty. Well, it's not universal, is it? It's pretty selective because we talked about American reconstruction, you know, Jim Crow law, segregation, lynching in the south, the racism growing in the north, the success of the Klan, Ku Klux Klan in mobilizing people around these issues, you know, is very much part of the picture of American politics. And Wilson is, he's the President, so he's obviously, you know, what's he done about this? Well, he's allowed segregation of federal agencies. He screened Birth of a Nation at the White House in 1915, which is the film that, you know, makes the KKK look incredibly glamorous.

[James Holland]

This is the Ku Klux Khan. Yep.

[Murray]

Yeah, pure straight up racism. And so whatever, whatever Wilson's liberal worldview might be in it, there, there are these racist double standards. Although I think it's quite interesting, you know, this is us holding to account for that at the time. I don't think it's a thing where go anyone particularly says, well, hold on a minute, you're up to your neck in it with the kkk, you know.

[James Holland]

Well, Wilson is a really interesting character I think because he's, he's an intellectual, an academic in background. Yeah, I can't remember which university he's been president of. It's either Yale or AR or one of these ones. And you know, so he's, but he's also, he's a Southerner. I mean, that's, that's the truth of it. He is racist. But he does have this kind of utopian worldview. He, he, he is a, a liberal internationalist. It's known as Wilsonianism. And he's very different to any other president that's ever come before. But I don't know, he's kind of almost too idealistic in his idealism, as you point out, is too straitjacketed by his very patrician kind of privileged worldview, I would say. But, you know, the combination of Germany supporting Mexico in that this is in the context of U.S. mexican border disputes and wars and the Yubo war, particularly against American ships in the Atlantic which are plying their trade on behalf of the British and the French. You know, he feels his hand is forced. So war is, you know, he declares war in April 1917 with fairly universal backing, it has to be said, from Congress. And it's worth pointing out that he does get the backing of Congress for this. He doesn't just do it unilaterally and on the public premise of newly established duty to protect the rights and liberties of small nations and to fight for a universal dominion of rights by such a concert of free peoples as shall bring peace and safety to all nations and make the world itself at last free, you know, so what he's saying is, if we can win this war now, then we, the democracies can come out on top, and then we can create a global order that will be democratic. The world, you know, the globe, throughout the globe, and we shall return to the summit uplands of a new kind of progressive form of utopian democracy. That's basically what he's saying, except mainly for white people and privileged people. I mean, that's the bit he doesn't say, but that's basically what he's saying.

[Murray]

Yeah. Well, should we take a quick break here and then we'll come back with Wilson's, what He called his 14 points and then see exactly what. See exactly how those go down. We'll see you in a ticket. Where is Daredevil A minor. Don't miss the return of Marvel Television's Daredevil Born again. So what's next? I feel liberated.

[James Holland]

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[Murray]

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[James Holland]

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[Murray]

B A B-B-E-L.com Spotify rules and restrictions may apply. Welcome back to. We have ways of making you talk with me. I'm Murray and James Holland and our series about the visionaries, as we've called them, FDR and Harry S. Truman and. Well, basically we've laid out Woodrow Wilson's position, which is. It's quite a mixed bag. The wicket he's on is quite sticky politically, but that hasn't stopped him drawing up a utopian 14 points, which he delivers to Congress in a speech in January 1918, because he's got to carry on persuading people he's gone to war successfully with Congress's backing, but now he's going to have to go to peace with Congress's backing and that's possibly more difficult.

[James Holland]

Yes.

[Murray]

After all, starting a war or getting into a war is kind of relatively straightforward. You tell the generals to get cracking and they do, don't they? It's finding your way back out of it that's more difficult. Are we drawing more modern parallels, Jim? I don't know. Anyway, so his 14 principles are for maintaining peace and security, freedom of the seas, removal of trade, tariffs, reduction of arms production. Very sensible, of course. Self determination of all peoples, restoration of territories gained by Germany and Hungary, Austria. Hungary in the world. Yep, exactly, yeah. Re establishment of Poland, which has not existed as a country since 1795 and it was divvied up between Prussia, Russia and Austria. And it's interesting because there's a direct clash here because the British don't want their naval supremacy to be threatened by freedom of the seas. France thinks this is all a bit

[James Holland]

like la de da fancy stuff.

[Murray]

If the French think that of you, then you've really got a problem. Right. And Russia is the Soviet Union now and is is committed to. The Comintern, only believes in a global vision of Bolshevism and nothing else. So three of the major players are going to be quite hard to convince. Interestingly, Germany accepts these points on the 5th of October 1918 because there' losing really badly. And the US because. Because basically it hasn't been involved in the war for so long that, you know, it's had a massively deleterious effect on it. The US sort of shoulders its way in and says, well, we are. We're going to do the peace brokering here because we're the power that's intact, basically, still. And Britain and France owe the U.S. 10 over $10 billion. So they they've kind of got to do what the Americans want. And Austria Hungary surrenders on 3rd November, Germany on 11th November. Of course, as we all know, 11am, and this means Wilson now comes to Europe to broker the rupees and he's the first sitting American President to come to Europe. He comes in December 1980. So straight away, soon as the war ends and he goes on a sort of hand waving tour of Europe and

[James Holland]

he's loving it by the way.

[Murray]

He likes it a bit too much I think, rather than thinking, hang on a minute, I think it's got some hard yards ahead of us. He rather enjoys it. Margaret Macmillan's book about this is very, very good, very gossipy about what the people were like. And the thing is, in Europe the politicians are not interested in this sort of adulation. They're thinking, oh God, we've got to sort this out, we've got to bend Germany to our will, we've got to fix all this. And the last thing they need is someone showing up with all these bright ideas and lofty principles and his la

[James Holland]

de da fancy ways.

[Murray]

Well, exactly, Lloyd, you know, Lloyd George is a hardcore political operator.

[James Holland]

Yes. He's the Prime Minister, the new Prime

[Murray]

Minister of Britain basically made sure that he got the, in the middle of a war, did the hardscrabble to displace Herbert Asquith. So, you know, we're talking about, we're talking about tough operators. Georges Clemenceau, you know, the French Premier again, he's, you know, these are not, these are not people who are lofty and idealistic. They want Realpolitik, you know.

[James Holland]

Yes, they do.

[Murray]

Wilson in the meantime has excluded the Senate from negotiations in Paris. He's going to do it. He takes a commission with him made up of similar sort of dreamers. Former President William Howard Taft calls them a bunch of cheap, cheapskates.

[James Holland]

It's not cross party, it's not a bipartisan bunch of people. So he's a Democrat, we should say. He doesn't take any Republicans with him. The people he does take are sort of, yeah, B and C list. So he's not getting that sort of cross party consensus for what he's doing is the truth. He's operating in isolation and it's robbing people of the wrong way.

[Murray]

And Britain and France have their own interests in terms of their imperiums, their imperial ambitions. They want, they think, you know, a good recompense for the war is German overseas territory and that also, that will also damage German, German Economy as well, because you have those colonies so you have external markets so you can export, so your economy, you know, blah, blah, blah. And also self determination as a principle in the, you know, Central Europe. Middle Europa is basically a fruitcake. Ethnically there are in terms of its consistency, in terms of its peoples, you know, there are bunches of raisins here and bits of cherry there and there's

[James Holland]

patches of rum at the bottom and the old hazelnut. Exactly.

[Murray]

We need to create new countries out of the former empire, the Austro Hungarian Empire and what's left of Germany. Uh oh, and that means hard and fast lines and inevitably what that's going to mean is you're going to end up with one raisin, one side of the cake that previously was part of a bigger nice cake. The analogy has collapsed. But basically.

[James Holland]

Well, I know what you mean.

[Murray]

So he says, right, well, we need a new Poland. So in general polls are in favour of that. There's not been a Poland since 1795. There's a new country of Czechoslovakia which is fashioned out of Bohemia and Moravia

[James Holland]

and places never existed before.

[Murray]

No, although Prague is one of the great cities of Europe, there's never, it's never been the capital of Czech, of Czechoslovakia or Czech or Czech Republic. Bohemia is what we're talking about here, you know. And in creating these new countries he dissolves the ideas of the old, the old localities, which I think is possibly an error, problematic. It's got 3 million people who speak German in it and you can say they're Germans if you want, but they speak German and, and here we run into the problem of their ethnicity expressed through language. This is after all part of the current Russian casus belli as they see it with Ukraine. Those people speak Russian, they must be Russians, which would be like me saying everyone in Ireland speaks English. They must be English. The logic is pretty wonky. And there's, you know, Poland is reinstated, Austria Hungary is dissolved. And if you're an Austro Hungarian prince or whatever, you're then busted down to a regular citizen. The Baltic states gain independence, but let's be honest now, it's one rule for me, another rule for thee. So Wilson Wilsonian self determination does not extend beyond Europe. So you know, in the. The Ottoman Empire is another ancient imperium that was on its, very much on its last legs before the First World War, but is now done. And so you get this British and French civil servants with, with a ruler drawing straight lines all over the Middle East. You know, you get these new French republics of Syria And Lebanon, which are created out of the Ottoman Empire. The British Mandate in Palestine, Transjord and Iraq.

[James Holland]

This is when they all come into being as. As they are today. Well, Transjordan is no longer exist, of course, but. But yeah, I mean, it's amazing, isn't it? Britain also proclaimed support for a Jewish state in Palestine. This is a Balfour declaration, people, of November 1917. You know, if you want to understand what's going on now, there you go. These are all the answers. And it's all very easy. Sitting in comfortable hotel rooms and, you know, boardrooms in Paris, thinking, well, we'll just do that and we'll do a line here and we'll do that, and Britain can take control of that bit and France can take control of this bit that's, you know, all sorted. And of course it isn't. And why anyone thinks it's ever going to be sorted is insane because, again, these ethnic border disputes are as old as the hills. And they've only been kept in the way they have been kept by huge despotic empires kind of ruling the roost. So when you have this sudden breakup, you have this power vacuum, and that's what's coming about.

[Murray]

I mean, it has to be said, though. It has to be said, what on earth do you do? Right. They do get this wrong.

[James Holland]

Yeah, I agree, but what on earth do you.

[Murray]

What on earth do you do? What the hell do you do in this situation? And this looks like a solution, and I'm. And. And they're sincere in believing it's a solution, but what on earth. I mean, for Christ's sake.

[James Holland]

Yes, I agree. It's not as quite as casual as I'm making out.

[Murray]

No, no. And I'm glad I'm not one of those people who now you can point out and go, ah, yeah, Balfour Declaration. They were the idiots that drew that up, though. A source of the people that or Sykes Pico. What a pair of idiots. Right. I'm glad I'm neither Sykes nor Pico, because what on earth do you do in that situation? How actually did you do deliver a result that satisfies anybody?

[James Holland]

Well, yes, but the other problem. The other problem is that the utopian world and vision and principles that Woodrow Wilson has been talking about seem universal. They seem global, and they're not. They're white and privileged. And so you get people like Naguin Tat Thanh, who later becomes Ho Chi Minh. He comes on behalf of Vietnam, but none, you know, he doesn't come away with any guarantee of sovereignty at all and you know, he's even capitulating on, on China. The Shandong province, which is Confucius's birthplace, incidentally, is considered the cradle of civilization that is taken, that had been taken by Germany in 1898, then by Japan in 1914. Wilson promises to return it to the Chinese, but the Treaty of Versailles only requires Japan's verbal assurance it would give up the territory in the next three years. And as Mao Zedong, who's also been watching on all this, he goes, you know, so much for self determination. I think it is really shameless. I mean, you know, again, so many of the problems which are around the corner in the next 20, 30 years are being laid out here at the Paris Treaty, you know.

[Murray]

Well then another bright idea of Wilson's, which interestingly is then tried again after the Second World War, is the League

[James Holland]

of Nations, which becomes the United Nations.

[Murray]

Yeah, it's interesting. They go back to the League of Nations after the Second World War. They try again, don't they? You know, the idea is that you, you, it's an intergovernmental organization. Everyone collaborates and it will make sure that global peace is, is a thing that people are committed to. And, and so an article 10 of the league of nations covenant says to respect, to preserve as against external aggression the territorial integrity and existing political independence of all members of the League. In other words, war is impossible. And well, you know, we're talking about after the First World War and we have a Second World War podcast. So I think we all know, I don't think it's a spoiler to tell people how successful the League of Nations might have turned out to be, let's put it that way. But Germany, yes, Germany's on the sort of receiving end of the biggest kicking as a result of this treaty. You know, we've talked about the different, different imperial wash of this, but Germany has to pay 132 billion gold marks. Yeah, it loses 13% of its pre war territory, including Alsace Lorraine, which is the border with France, which it had taken during the 1871 Franco Prussian War. And so that's 10 million of its pre war population of 65 million have basically been snaffled away, switched. Yeah. So the Rhineland, which is Germany's industrial heartland where its coal is dug and its steel production is organized and it's, and its trade runs up and down the river Rhine, of course, that is demilitarized. So that, so it, it's. They're not allowed an army there. And the army, if you want to really, really, really Piss the Germans off at this stage in their history, you, you cap their army and they're only allowed a hundred thousand soldiers. And then if you really, really, really want to piss off the Germans who believe that they were fighting the First World War defensively and they, they absolutely believe they're fighting to preserve Germany, to defend Germany from the threats around it, they believe before the First World War they're surrounded, they absolutely have to strike at their enemies. There's a war guilt clause inserted, Article 231 of the treaty, which is that Germany's to accept full responsible for catalysing the war and for all the loss and damage that followed. And I mean, I think for me it's the reparations are one thing because after all there is an economic solution down the track for the, for the reparations. It's the army. Capping the army and the war guilt clause. If you want to really, really, really, really, really, really upset the Germany that, that, that exists at this time. Those are the two things I think.

[James Holland]

Anyway, it's signed on 28 June 1919. There's mass process around the protests around the world in India, Korea, Egypt, China, because they feel they've been completely sidelined and all those utopia promises of Wilson have been ignored and. Which they have, which they have. They signed on the fifth anniversary of Franz Ferdinand's assassination, which prompts the First World War in the first place.

[Murray]

Yeah.

[James Holland]

And in the palace of Versailles, hall of Mirrors, which is exactly where the Franco Prussia war ended in 1871 and is of course the epitome of the ancien regime that Wilson has been so keen to overthrow. And he returns to the US in July after seven months away, but of course now needs Congress to ratify the treaty. And he's faced with a whole host of problems because now there's labor strikes and race riots across the country. There's resentment that big business have been profiting from the war whilst young men have been sent off to die. And you know, a not insignificant amount of Americans were killed in France and Flanders. Progressive internationalists from both parties are upset with the Wilsonian compromises to the 14 points and the 14 Republican irreconcilables in Congress categorically are against joining the league. So Wilson has completely misread this one because he's taken his eye off the ball domestically and he's exhausted and he's quite ill. And in September he gives a speech, he goes on this speaking tour around the country to try and persuade the people, which he then thinks Will have a, you know, will rub off onto, onto Congress. And in September he gives a speech in Colorado and then collapses. And he makes it back to the White House a week later. But he suffered a stroke that leaves him paralyzed down, completely paralyzed down one side and partially blinded. Basically. He's screwed, he's stuffed. I mean his political career is over at this point, even though his presidency isn't quite. And of course this completely shatters his ability to advocate for the treaty or be any kind of political leader at all. And when Congress vote on entry into the League, which after all was Wilson's idea, it is defeated 53 votes to 38. And the Wilsonian vision for world peace is completely crumbling.

[Murray]

It's amazing that he can't get it through, can't get it through Congress.

[James Holland]

There's something, it is on paper, but it isn't in analysis.

[Murray]

It's just truly amazing that you get that far and then you can't pull that off.

[James Holland]

It's just.

[Murray]

He's bad at politics, isn't he? That's what it comes down to.

[James Holland]

Yes, but he's crazy. Utopian visions. He's just a bit, he's just a bit too early. He's a bit too early. He's a bit too kind of grandstanding, He's a bit too self righteous and he doesn't take people with him. That's the point. But meanwhile, of course, you know, the rest of the world is in economic mire.

[Murray]

Yeah.

[James Holland]

You know, and it's worth just mentioning the gold standard because the gold standard just comes into it all the time and lots of people, you know, might have heard this phrase and heard about the gold standard, but don't actually know what it is. So the de facto gold standard is introduced in Britain in the early 18th century. This is when paper money is issued later in the 18th century, but during the Napoleonic wars, convertibility of notes into gold is suspended. So these notes, these banknotes are always supposed to be convertible, that you could go to a bank of handover and get your block of gold or whatever or gold coins or whatever. But now in the Napoleon Awards, because the economic crisis caused by the cost of the Napoleon Awards, Britain has suspended that saying no, we're just going to print banknotes and banknotes on their own is going to be valued. So for the first time ever you've got a currency which is a paper currency rather than a hard nosed gold currency. And economic instability plus inflation. So the rising cost of goods means you've suddenly got a need to stabilize the currency. Once the war is over. So then you have the Coinage act in the UK of 1816, which once again formalizes gold as a standard of value and does it formally. So the convertibility of banknotes into gold is restored formally in 1822. So Britain has the world's first formal gold standard. It's just been, it's been presidential before that rather than actual, if you see what I mean.

[Murray]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[James Holland]

And then other countries don't join the gold standard until really quite a, you know, 50 years later, until the sort of 1870s really. So there's a bit, and this is, this coincides with the big expansion in international trade and international investment and the growth of a modern global trans oceanic economy and one which is heightened by the arrival of the, of the telegraph machine and under the ocean cables and all the rest of it, which means that transactions can happen much, much quicker. And of course this stable currency in Britain post the Napoleonic War then helps to sustain a rapid technological progress because you need economic stability to be able to have a technical progression and a parliamentary system that limits the authority of the monarch and so encourages financial independence and a confident economic environment that rewards long term investment and financial risk taking. So you have rapid industrialization, strong currency, expanding global economy, and this leads to unprecedented growth, the rise in wealth in the developed world in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Which doesn't mean to say you don't get slumps, panics and crashes which are interspersed in this period. Because you know, in 1847, for example, there's panic in Britain where markets collapse at the end of the railway boom. There's the American long depression of the 1870s following the Civil War. Then there is the American banking crisis of 1907, which then leads to the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. There is a point where J.P. morgan, for example, calls all the richest Americans into a single room and says, come on fellas, you know, we've got to sort this out. We're going to have to bail out the U.S. economy. And they do. And that leads to the Federal Reserve which then guarantees deposits as it has the ability to print more money if necessary and so provide emergency funding during crises and prevent financial collapses. So the Federal Reserve in the United States and in fact in global economics is really important for fostering trust in banks, which then leads to trust in money, which then leads to economic stability and economic stability and political stability code go hand in hand. And I think that's a really important point to make here.

[Murray]

Yeah, well, interesting though, this kind of Free trade. There's always. There's winners and losers, aren't there? Always. Always. You know, British farming, of course, has problems competing with cheap North American grain and South American meat.

[James Holland]

Yeah. So this is the background to all those Thomas Hardy novels, you know, of rural decline and so on.

[Murray]

This is the economic picture that precedes, you know, the time John Maynard Keynes is talking about before the First World War, of sort of unprecedented economic stability. This is what's going on under the bonnet, as it were, during the First World War. No one can stay on the gold standard. The US stays on, but everyone else just abandons it. Costs are too high, you print more money to meet the inflation that comes with the way your economy has to run hot when you're arming very rapidly. And this means that, I mean, heaven forfend, you end up with more paper money in circulation than it's valuing gold in the nation's banks. And after the war, the British try and get this back under control and they put their interest rates up to 7%. But this, this nobbles anyone borrowing in the middle classes, essentially, and they try taking paper money out of the economy, which results in cash shortages, which results in wages being cut. I mean, you know, we. All we ever hear about nowadays is wages going up. We never hear about wages being cut, but they're cutting wages and this means living standards drop, there's no more economic growth and, and no one will take, you know, the politicians are wedded to this idea that you've got to somehow get back to the equilibrium of the gold standard.

[James Holland]

Worth pointing out that this is the time of the end of. You know, this is all the Downton Abbey back background backdrop for those who've watched Downton Abbey, you know, we've suddenly massively increased taxes on the. On the rich and property classes, which is why all these country houses are being pulled down, why people having to sell up and all the rest of it. This is because of the war, because of the First World War, because everyone's cash strapped, you know, and because of all these economic policies which are being imposed at that time. So, yeah, sorry, you were saying about Churchill.

[Murray]

You're right. Well, and then Winston Churchill. I mean, the interesting thing is Churchill's interwar history is incredibly consequential in terms of, you know, some of the circumstances that lead, lead to the Second World War. You know, when he's Chancellor the Exchequer, he's. He tries to. He goes back onto the gold standard, he sets the rate of the pound at 4.86 Keynes tells him not to. And this results further in lower wages and higher costs. And you end up with the great General strike of 1926 of unionized work workers walking out en masse all over the country, absolutely everywhere. And Churchill going back on, trying to go back on the gold standard and hit the 10 year rule. The two are two very sort of, you know, when you're squaring off his entire political career, they're things that rather stick out.

[James Holland]

Yes.

[Murray]

But the French, they decide also they're going to reduce the money supply. They're going to. And they devalue the franc. But what they don't do is slash wages. And this combination of policies means they avoid runaway inflation. But France is very unhappy place. After the First World War you've had 1.2 million French men killed and millions more wounded. I mean 3 million men wounded. Verdun is the sort of emblematic part of the French First World War. The meat grinder at Verdun there are only, I think this is the most amazing fact. There are only six towns or villages in the entire country that don't have to put up a war memorial to the dead. And you consider how enormous France is. That is really something. And although they keep their economy kind of on track, French governments find it very hard to stay in office. And there are five French governments between 1919 and 1923. So even the people who signed the Versailles Treaty and involved in the carve up of the world, they're gone. Or they're on sort of a fast spin cycle, aren't they? They. Yep. Germany's response to the economic strictures of the peace, the economic consequences of the peace, they quadruple the amount of money they're printing. They've already quadrupled the amount of money they printed during the war. And after the war they carry on doing this because they have these reparations to deal with. And also they've got in 1922 because they aren't paying their reparations because it's impossible. The French and the Belgians occupy the Ruhr because she was meant to be demilitarized. And now they occupy it, they move in and then there are German strikes in protest. So then they print more money. I mean the cycle here, national Debt rises by 30% which is sort of in its own way meaningless, isn't it? Right. When it rises that much, it's sort of whatever, right. Circulating money, paper money rises by 20, 20 times. The cost of living rises five times. All these things like, it's like they're circling the drain. Economic.

[James Holland]

Yeah, yeah.

[Murray]

It's a downward spiral. And the worse the situation gets, the more money the government prints, the worse hyperinflation becomes. And it's absolutely vicious cycle in Germany and in November 1923. And then everyone knows these stories, or, you know, at least from doing GCSE Nazis, right. The US dollar is worth 4.2 trillion marks. They've got wheelbarrows of cash, which is the sort of absolute cheaper to burn piles of cash than to buy wood for a fire. And, you know, the value of a loaf of bread will be completely different in the morning to the afternoon. And no one, obviously. You can't keep up, can you? No. Your mortgage disappears overnight, doesn't it? Like that. If you had a 2000 Deutsche Mark mortgage on your house, at least that's gone, right?

[James Holland]

Yeah. And nor is the peace. That's the point, you know, because they're still fighting on the continent. Six border wars in Poland between 1918 to 1921. Well, you know, whoever flew that coming civil war in Russia. Post revolution, the now independent Baltic states are fighting with the USSR. There's the birth of fascism in 1922 under Mussolini in Italy. But compared to Europe, the US is doing absolutely fine and dandy because there's a new age of prosperity under the new Republican Party president, Warren G. Harding. And, you know, the 1920s in the United States, this is the boom time. It's the Jazz Age. You know, this is characterized by modernism and consumerism. And this all really comes from the advent of the cheap, affordable motorcar. And this is of course, thanks to Henry Ford and his production line of the Model T. There's fridges and other modern appliances which raise the living standards for normal people. Hollywood is expanding. It's a very lucrative industry. Movie theaters opening all across the country. There's gold flooding in. The United States has to withdraw from the gold standard to stave off inflation in the US because it has now become the undisputed economic powerhouse of the world. And I think what you get with this huge consumerism is that suddenly everyone can afford cars. So then that means you can travel further, which means roads need to be built, which means buildings need to be built, which means you need a new thing called a motel, a motor hotel where you can park your car overnight and travel and all the rest of it, which creates a huge building boom. Imagine, and this boom comes from the automobile and of course from oil. And America is by far and away the largest oil producer in the planet. So, you know, this is all good stuff for America. But as it happens, Europe does start to recover by 1924. And a new currency, completely new currency is introduced in Germany in 1920, 1920 fee and this is the Renten mark. It's a temporary currency. It's only ever conceived as a temporary currency and limited amounts are printed but it helps regain public confidence, which is of course the all important ingredient in the currency. And the prices start to stabilize. And it's also true that the United States plays a massive role in this German recovery because the Dawes Committee is established in the autumn of 1923 and oversees a dramatic reduction of German reparation pay payments. And it is getting this. It's providing its money from the loans that are being repaid by Britain and France to the United States which it is then siphoning back to Germany. So it's going right in a nice circle which then ushers in higher foreign investment in Germany, which helps reintroduce the old Reichsmark and then puts Germany back on the gold standard at its pre war level. And JP Morgan bank in the United States lends Germany $100 million which is OK, a huge sum in the 1920s. And the Wall street financier Parker Gilbert becomes a reparations agent and has the power to call off any German reparations if they're likely to destabilize the German economy. So this is all a good thing. And suddenly the flow of foreign capital is rising into Germany as a result, particularly in terms of dollars. And companies like Ford and General Motors and General Electric all start planning, building to build new factories in Germany. And the Germans are able to make solid reparation payments to Britain and France at long last a money that you know, as I say, has been recycled back from the debts that France and Britain is paying to America and America is then paying back to Germany. And Germany is emerging from its devastated post war abyss as a modern industrial and high quality production economy, which of course is exactly what it does post 1945 in West Germany. France is also recovering well, exports 50% higher than before the war by 1929. The USSR and Japan is also rapidly industrializing. And there is a broad picture of the world slowly rebuilding, I think after the trauma and destruction of the war. And democracy is sort of holding on too. Of course there are exceptions and not least Italy which has succumbed to fascism by 1929. But communism has been restricted to the USSR, hasn't it?

[Murray]

So, yeah, well, and they've sort of given up as well, haven't they? They've decided, stylists decided. Kind of got enough on my plate really, without trying to spread it worldwide.

[James Holland]

Yeah, he's got a point.

[Murray]

And the Geneva Convention is drawn up and agreed by the League of Nations, although the US Is not involved in, in, in the Geneva Conventions because it's the US Is looking inward, but the world is moving forward. What could possibly go wrong? And I think it's, it's three, three short words. Wall street crash. Because the American economy, for all of its apparent strength and its largesse in lending the Germans $100 million, is nevertheless a house of cards, actually. And in our next episode, we'll look at the Wall street crash and we'll look at its consequences and the the way it then sets about upsetting the apple car all over the world.

[James Holland]

World.

[Murray]

We'll see you in our next episode. If you want, however, to listen to all these in one torrid rush of information, then what you need to do is become a Patreon. We have ways of making you talk Patreon where you can listen to these ad free in your own time and enjoy the process. And also be you can watch live casts with me and Jim doing war waffle live on your screen of an evening, as well as ticket offers and and other stuff coming your way. Anyway, thanks very much for listening. We'll see you very soon. Cheerio.

[James Holland]

Cheerio.