A Fragile Job Market 1/7/26

Summary

Podcast Summary: "A Fragile Job Market"

Show: Your Money Minute by CNBC
Episode Date: January 7, 2026
Host: Jessica Ettinger
Guest: Mark Zandi (Moody’s Economist)

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Episode Overview

This episode of "Your Money Minute" focuses on the current state of the U.S. job market at the start of 2026. Host Jessica Ettinger discusses with economist Mark Zandi how hiring has slowed but layoffs remain low, creating a fragile economic situation. Zandi explains why job growth is flat, what that means for job seekers and current employees, and how wage growth is impacted.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Slowing Job Market with Low Layoffs

• Slowing hiring: Businesses have started the year by downshifting their hiring activities.
• Low firing rates: Although companies aren’t hiring much, they are also refraining from large-scale layoffs.
  • Jessica Ettinger (00:06): “The job market is starting the new year downshifting. But even with a slowing job market, the US can stay out of recession if businesses aren't adding new jobs. For the most part, they're not firing that many people either. The low fire, low hire balance seems to be holding.”

2. Flat or Negative Job Growth

• No growth detected: Mark Zandi elaborates that the lack of new hiring is resulting in flat or even slightly negative job growth, particularly after data revisions.
  • Mark Zandi (00:22): “Businesses still aren't hiring and as a result, there is no job growth. Job growth at best is flat and I suspect is even down after revision. So fortunately, businesses aren't laying off. That's the key to keeping the economy moving forward and avoiding a recession.”

3. A Fragile Job Situation for Americans

• Fragility highlighted: The job market’s precariousness is emphasized due to stagnant job creation.
  • Jessica Ettinger (00:37): “The job situation for Americans right now is fragile.”
  • Mark Zandi (00:44): “Yeah, it's fragile because we're not creating jobs, Melissa. I mean, I don't know how we can feel comfortable about the way things are going if we're not creating jobs.”

4. Changing Job Trends: Wage Growth and Raises

• Small pay bumps for job changers: Those looking to switch jobs this year might not enjoy the type of raises seen in previous years.
  • Jessica Ettinger (00:51): “If you change jobs this year, you may not get that big pay bump you would have gotten a few years ago. And if you hang on to your current job, you may not see the worst raises you were used to.”
• Declining wage growth: Wage growth is moderating as unemployment rises.
  • Mark Zandi (01:02): “Unemployment is rising. It's still low 4.6%, but that's now meaningfully above, I think most estimates, including my own... You can see wage growth is slowing. Consistent with that.”

5. Upcoming Data and Resources

• Additional resources: Listeners are directed to CNBC.com for the full interview and notified about the upcoming December employment report.
  • Jessica Ettinger (01:18): “The full interview with Mark Zandi is at cnbc.com and the new December employment report will be out Friday morning, January 9th.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On economic balance:
  • Jessica Ettinger (00:06): "The low fire, low hire balance seems to be holding."
• On job market fragility:
  • Mark Zandi (00:44): "I don't know how we can feel comfortable about the way things are going if we're not creating jobs."
• On wage growth trends:
  • Mark Zandi (01:02): "Unemployment is rising. It's still low 4.6%, but that's now meaningfully above... You can see wage growth is slowing."

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• 00:00-00:22 – Overview of job market’s current state
• 00:22-00:37 – Mark Zandi discusses flat job growth and few layoffs
• 00:37-00:51 – Fragility of the job market emphasized
• 00:51-01:02 – Pay and wage growth trends for employees and job changers
• 01:02-01:18 – Unemployment data and wage growth analysis
• 01:18-01:32 – Resources and upcoming employment report tease

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Tone & Style Notes

Jessica Ettinger delivers the episode with clarity and urgency, blending data with practical advice. Mark Zandi’s contributions are analytical, candid, and rooted in economic fundamentals.

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Summary prepared for listeners seeking the key takeaways and expert insights from CNBC’s “Your Money Minute”

Transcript

[Jessica Ettinger]

With a CNBC you Money Minute, I'm Jessica Ettinger. The job market is starting the new year downshifting. But even with a slowing job market, the US can stay out of recession if businesses aren't adding new jobs. For the most part, they're not firing that many people either. The low fire, low hire balance seems to be holding.

[Mark Zandi]

Businesses still aren't hiring and as a result, there is no job growth. Job growth at best is flat and I suspect is even down after revision. So fortunately, businesses aren't laying off. That's the key to keeping the economy moving forward and avoiding a recession.

[Jessica Ettinger]

That's Moody's economist Mark Zandi telling cnbc. The job situation for Americans right now is fragile.

[Mark Zandi]

Yeah, it's fragile because we're not creating jobs, Melissa. I mean, I don't know how we can feel comfortable about the way things are going if we're not creating jobs.

[Jessica Ettinger]

And he adds that if you change jobs this year, you may not get that big pay bump you would have gotten a few years ago. And if you hang on to your current job, you may not see the worst raises you were used to.

[Mark Zandi]

Unemployment is rising. It's still low 4.6%, but that's now meaningfully above, I think most estimates, including my own of full the full employment and unemployment rate. That's closer to four. You know, you can see wage growth is slowing. Consistent with that.

[Jessica Ettinger]

The full interview with Mark Zandi [e-mail] and the new December employment report will be out Friday morning, January 9th. Jessica Ettinger, CNBC Hey Fidelity, what's it.

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