Your Money Minute — Episode Summary

Episode Title: Consumers Say One Thing And Do Another
Date: November 21, 2025
Host: Jessica Ettinger (CNBC)
Run Time: ~1:15
Main Guest(s): Michael Lasser (UBS), Steve Odland (Conference Board)

Overview

This quick daily tip from CNBC’s Your Money Minute dives into the gap between what consumers say about their holiday spending intentions during times of economic pressure—rising inflation, lower consumer confidence—and what they actually do. Through expert insights, host Jessica Ettinger examines why actual spending may defy the gloomier survey headlines, underscoring the importance of consumer spending for the U.S. economy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Mixed Signals from the Economy

• Rising inflation & Low consumer confidence: Inflation has been climbing every month since April, paired with notably depressed consumer confidence, leading one to suspect weaker holiday retail sales. (Jessica Ettinger, 00:00)
• Counterpoint – Retail resilience: Despite these negative signals, retail spending may not decline as much as anticipated. The host immediately sets up this question: “You might think that retail could be in trouble for the holidays. Nah, probably not.” (Jessica Ettinger, 00:10)

2. Spending Pattern Predictors

• Correlation between back-to-school and holiday sales:
  • “There tends to be a high correlation between back to school and holiday spending. These two seasons are quite close, so that's a good leading indicator. And back to school season was pretty good.”
    — Michael Lasser (UBS), 00:15
  • This suggests strong back-to-school sales may pave the way for a robust holiday season, despite tepid forecasts.

3. The "Say-Do" Gap in Consumer Surveys

• Surveys vs. Actual Behavior:
  • “People say they plan to spend less on the holidays this season, kind of every season in surveys... But will they really?”
    — Jessica Ettinger, 00:25
  • Michael Lasser points out, “What people say they're going to do and what they actually do is very different. Consumers are going to come out and spend the holiday.” (00:39)
• Underlying optimism:
  • Jobs persist (even if the labor market has softened slightly), giving consumers confidence to keep celebrating and spending.

4. Consumer Psychology & the Economy

• Reinforcing consumer impulses:
  • “People always say one thing and don't always do what they're going to say. So even though [the survey] says that they're going to spend a little less, they may not. You know, they tend to get a little antsy and want to buy a little bit more. Our consumer-based economy wants to spend.”
    — Steve Odland (Conference Board), 00:57
  • The American economy, so dependent on consumer spending, more or less ‘needs’ this behavior for healthy growth.

5. The Macro Impact

• Consumer spending’s economic role:
  • “Consumer spending makes up about 2/3 of US economic growth. The country needs consumers to keep spending.”
    — Jessica Ettinger, 01:13
  • The episode closes with a reminder: ongoing consumer activity remains the engine of the nation’s prosperity.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jessica Ettinger (Host):
  • “You might think that retail could be in trouble for the holidays. Nah, probably not.” (00:10)
• Michael Lasser (UBS):
  • “There tends to be a high correlation between back to school and holiday spending. ...Back to school season was pretty good.” (00:15)
  • “What people say they're going to do and what they actually do is very different. Consumers are going to come out and spend the holiday.” (00:39)
• Steve Odland (Conference Board):
  • “People always say one thing and don't always do what they're going to say... They may not [actually] spend less.” (00:57)
• Jessica Ettinger (Host):
  • “Consumer spending makes up about 2/3 of US economic growth. The country needs consumers to keep spending.” (01:13)

Timeline & Timestamps

• 00:00 – 00:15: Jessica Ettinger introduces the conflict—rising inflation, low confidence, and the outlook for retail
• 00:15 – 00:25: Michael Lasser draws parallels between back-to-school and holiday spending
• 00:25 – 00:39: Discussion about what surveys show versus reality; crowd psychology in holiday spending
• 00:39 – 00:57: Michael Lasser and Steve Odland both underscore consumer tendencies to overspend versus reported intentions
• 01:13: Jessica Ettinger summarizes the macroeconomic importance of consumer spending

Tone & Takeaways

The episode delivers its lesson with CNBC’s trademark blend of brisk analysis and practical focus. Listeners are encouraged to question survey pessimism—people may say they’ll spend less when asked, but historical patterns rule otherwise. The experts’ tone is pragmatic yet optimistic: Americans love to spend, and for the economy’s sake, it’s better if they keep going.

Essential takeaway: Don’t blindly trust the surveys about holiday belt-tightening—watch what people actually do instead.