Gas & Consumer Spending 5/12/26

Summary

Podcast Summary: Your Money Minute – “Gas & Consumer Spending 5/12/26”
Date: May 12, 2026
Host: Jessica Ettinger (CNBC)

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Episode Overview

This rapid-fire episode examines how rising gas prices, spurred by the ongoing US conflict with Iran, are affecting consumer spending habits. CNBC’s Jessica Ettinger facilitates a concise but insightful discussion with experts, including Kevin Book (Clearview Energy), Kelly Evans (CNBC), and Darren Woods (CEO, Exxon). The central question: How do surging energy costs ripple through the broader economy—and how long does it take for these effects to show up in everyday spending?

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Immediate Impacts on Low-Income Households

• Kevin Book highlights that lower-income and at-risk households feel the pinch first, adjusting their spending almost immediately as gas prices climb.
  • Quote:
    “The academic literature suggests that you see some reallocation in low income and at risk households pretty much right away.”
    (Kevin Book, 00:15)

2. Lagged Broader Economic Effects

• Overall consumer spending (“top line real consumption”) doesn’t decline immediately.
• Book points out there is typically a “three to six months” lag before the broader economic slowdown is seen.
  • Quote:
    “Your hits to top line real consumption tend to lag three to six months behind the shock but then go from there.”
    (Kevin Book, 00:18)

3. Market Perception and Stock Performance

• Kelly Evans expresses concern that the stock market and retail stocks haven’t yet reflected this delayed effect, suggesting possible underestimation of the risks.

  • Quote:
    “If that’s true then we and frankly the stock market should be pricing in more... but we’ve certainly not seen any big headlines about... them selling off.”
    (Kelly Evans, 00:29)

• Kevin Book transitions the discussion to psychological and less-tangible factors influencing consumer and market response.

  • Quote:
    “That’s where I think we get into some of the less fundamental, more metaphysical sides of this.”
    (Kevin Book, 00:48)

4. Current Situation – War Impact & Consumer Resilience

• As the US-Iran conflict enters its third month, consumer spending remains solid, though with uncertainty about the future.

  • Quote:
    “The war is in month three and for the most part consumer spending is holding up. But no one knows for how long.”
    (Jessica Ettinger, 00:53)

• Kelly Evans and Kevin Book forecast that economic pain may be imminent given the recent surge in gasoline prices (+30 cents in one week).

  • Quote:
    “You sort of see a three to six month lag before things like an oil pop really hit the consumer. So you do wonder a little bit about what could be coming.”
    (Kelly Evans, 01:03)

  • Quote:
    “I’m wondering if we’re going to start to hear stuff about the consumer within the next couple of weeks. The price of Gasoline is up 30 cents this week.”
    (Kevin Book, 01:09)

5. Outlook from the Oil Industry

• Darren Woods (Exxon CEO) notes that even if the Middle East conflict were to end immediately, oil supply chains would take months to normalize, keeping prices elevated for the foreseeable future.
  • Quote:
    “Once the strait opens up, it’ll take one to two months for the flow to re-establish itself… usually takes about a month of transit time so there will be a time where it takes for the market to recover.”
    (Darren Woods, 01:30)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|----------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:15 | Kevin Book | “The academic literature suggests that you see some reallocation in low income and at risk households pretty much right away.” | | 00:18 | Kevin Book | “Your hits to top line real consumption tend to lag three to six months behind the shock but then go from there.” | | 00:29 | Kelly Evans | “If that’s true then we ... should be pricing in more ... but we’ve certainly not seen any big headlines ...selling off.” | | 00:48 | Kevin Book | “That’s where I think we get into some of the less fundamental, more metaphysical sides of this.” | | 00:53 | Jessica Ettinger| “The war is in month three and for the most part consumer spending is holding up. But no one knows for how long.” | | 01:03 | Kelly Evans | “You sort of see a three to six month lag before things like an oil pop really hit the consumer. So you do wonder ...” | | 01:09 | Kevin Book | “I’m wondering if we’re going to start to hear stuff about the consumer within the next couple of weeks. The price of Gasoline is up 30 cents this week.” | | 01:30 | Darren Woods | “Once the strait opens up, it’ll take one to two months for the flow to re-establish itself ... so there will be a time where it takes for the market to recover.” |

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Key Timestamps

• 00:00 – Introduction: Context of rising gas prices due to US-Iran war
• 00:15 – Kevin Book discusses immediate effects on low-income households
• 00:29 – Kelly Evans explores stock market reactions and forward-looking risk
• 00:48 – Book notes the less-tangible, psychological impacts on spending and markets
• 01:03 – Discussion of the lag before effects hit consumer spending
• 01:09 – Book and Evans note current price increases and predict near-term impacts
• 01:30 – Darren Woods discusses logistical delays even after peace
• 01:49 – Ettinger reminds listeners to check CNBC for more energy cost updates

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Takeaways

• Gas prices are significantly affecting low-income households immediately, though broader consumer spending may not show a downturn for several months.
• Higher fuel costs are expected to weigh on the overall economy and the retail sector, with market participants possibly underestimating forthcoming risks.
• The potential for continued elevated energy prices exists even after geopolitical tensions subside, due to logistical and supply chain recovery times.

For ongoing developments, check CNBC’s energy market coverage.

Transcript

[Jessica Ettinger]

With a CNBC your Money minute, I'm Jessica Ettinger. Prices at the pump have soared since the start of the US War with Iran and experts are watching how consumers spend, where their money is going and how gas prices might be affecting that.

[Kevin Book]

The academic literature suggests that you see some reallocation in low income and at risk households pretty much right away. But your hits to top line real consumption tend to lag three to six months behind the shock but then go from there.

[Kelly Evans]

Well, that's not good news. I mean if that's true then we should then we and frankly the stock market should be pricing in more of a usually is anticipating or trying to anticipate developments three to six months from now. And I can't say I've seen the retail and consumer stocks with extra granularity, but we've certainly not seen any big headlines about their them selling off.

[Kevin Book]

So that's where I think we get into some of the less fundamental, more metaphysical sides of the of this.

[Jessica Ettinger]

That's Clearview Energy's Kevin Book on cnbc. The war is in month three and for the most part consumer spending is holding up. But no one knows for how long.

[Kelly Evans]

You sort of see a three to six month lag before things like an oil pop really hit the consumer. So you do wonder a little bit about what could be coming.

[Kevin Book]

I'm wondering if we're going to start to hear stuff about the consumer within the next couple of weeks. The price of Gasoline is up 30 cents this week.

[Jessica Ettinger]

Yeah, that's one point. BFG's Peter Bookvar with CNBC's Kelly Evans, the CEO of Exxon, Darren woods tells CNBC that even if the Middle east comes conflict ended, it would still mean oil and gas prices would be higher for a long time.

[Darren Woods]

Once the strait opens up, it'll take one to two months for the flow to re establish itself and then it's going to take transit time to get the barrels out of the Persian Gulf into the demand destinations the customers are going to. It usually takes about a month of transit time so there will be a time where it takes for the market to recover.

[Jessica Ettinger]

Keep up on energy costs. @cnbc.com I'm Jessica Ettinger, CNBC.

[Keith Lansford]

This episode is brought to you by Schwab Market Update, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join host Keith Lansford for this information packed daily market Preview delivered in 10 minutes or less, including projected stock updates, monetary policy decisions and key results and statistics that may impact your trading. Download the latest episode and [e-mail] MarketUpdatePodcast or find Schwab Market Update wherever you get your podcasts.