Higher Tax Refunds This Spring, But Higher Inflation 1/22/26

Summary

Podcast Summary

Podcast: Your Money Minute
Host: Jessica Ettinger, CNBC
Episode: Higher Tax Refunds This Spring, But Higher Inflation
Date: January 22, 2026
Duration: ~1 minute

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Episode Overview

This short, news-driven episode dives into how Americans might use their higher tax refunds this spring in the context of elevated inflation. CNBC’s Jessica Ettinger, with commentary from Sarah Eisen and Jeff Sherman, weighs the potential spending behaviors and financial pressures consumers face—highlighting the tug-of-war between bigger tax refunds and persistent inflation.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Bigger Tax Refunds, Thanks to New Tax Law

• Jessica Ettinger opens with how refunds may be "a little bigger than last year" due to the new Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed last summer.
  • "The refund checks will be a little bigger than last year for some people because of the new tax cuts and jobs act from last summer.” (00:06 – Jessica Ettinger)
• She notes that while retailers are eager for shoppers to splurge, “Americans have a lot of bills to pay. Maybe.” hinting at financial caution.

2. Most Refunds Likely Spent on Necessities

• Sarah Eisen predicts that many will use their refunds for essential expenses rather than discretionary purchases:
  • "People are just going to spend it on staples and health insurance." (00:22 – Sarah Eisen)
• Jeff Sherman adds that it's not just health insurance, but “car insurance, house insurance — insurance seems to be a big bill.” (00:24 – Jeff Sherman)
• The conversation underlines the rising burden of insurance and other must-pay expenses.

3. Debt Repayment Might Be a Priority

• Sherman notes some Americans might “pay down…some of the credit cards, the spinning that took place," touching on the reality of post-holiday debt and ambiguous spending intentions. (00:34 – Jeff Sherman)
• The uncertainty is palpable: "We don't know what happens when people get these checks." (00:38 – Jeff Sherman)

4. Rising Inflation Dampens the Cheer

• Jessica Ettinger points out an important caveat: “Sherman does say they anticipate some higher prices at retail this spring, with inflation topping 3%.” (00:42 – Jessica Ettinger)
• Sherman warns listeners:
  • "We don't think we're out of the woods yet for right about a 3% inflation. We still think you're going to see some three...handle level inflation prints in 2026, and so I think it's too early to sit here and say that everything is smooth." (00:49 – Jeff Sherman)
• The emphasis is on persistent inflation potentially eroding the real value of tax refunds.

5. Bottom Line: Cautious Optimism

• Ettinger wraps up by summarizing the dual reality: higher tax refunds, but also higher inflation and more expensive necessities.
  • “More on higher inflation expectations but higher tax refunds for Americans this spring.” (01:02 – Jessica Ettinger)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The refund checks will be a little bigger than last year for some people because of the new tax cuts and jobs act from last summer.”
  (00:06 – Jessica Ettinger)
• “People are just going to spend it on staples and health insurance.”
  (00:22 – Sarah Eisen)
• “Car insurance, house insurance — insurance seems to be a big bill.”
  (00:24 – Jeff Sherman)
• “We don't know what happens when people get these checks.”
  (00:38 – Jeff Sherman)
• “We don't think we're out of the woods yet for right about a 3% inflation....I think it's too early to sit here and say that everything is smooth.”
  (00:49 – Jeff Sherman)

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Timeline & Timestamps

• 00:00 – Introduction; tax refunds expected to be higher
• 00:22 – Listeners likely to spend refunds on necessities (Eisen/Sherman)
• 00:34 – Potential for debt repayment; uncertainty about consumer behavior
• 00:42 – Inflation expected to remain at or above 3%; impact on spending power
• 01:02 – Recap of higher refunds vs. higher inflation

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Tone & Style

The episode maintains CNBC’s hallmark brisk, reportorial style—practical, slightly cautionary, and focused on actionable personal finance insights. The mood pivots between hopeful (bigger refunds) and pragmatic (rising bills and ongoing inflation pressures). Comments from Sarah Eisen and Jeff Sherman are straightforward, relatable, and grounded in day-to-day financial concerns.

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Takeaway

While bigger tax refunds are coming for many Americans, inflation and essential costs may eat up much of the windfall—leaving consumers to weigh paying bills and reducing debt over splurging. Caution and practicality seem to be the watchwords for spring 2026 tax season.

Transcript

[Jessica Ettinger]

With a CNBC your Money minute. I'm Jessica Ettinger. What will Americans do with their tax refunds this spring? The refund checks will be a little bigger than last year for some people because of the new tax cuts and jobs act from last summer. Now law retailers would love you to go out and buy stuff but Americans have a lot of bills to pay. Maybe.

[Sarah Eisen]

People are just going to spend it on staples and health insurance.

[Jeff Sherman]

Maybe that's true. I mean one thing, it's not just health insurance. Car insurance, house insurance insurance seems to be a big building. That's what I.

[Jessica Ettinger]

Mean, double lines. Jeff Sherman with CNBC's Sarah Eisen.

[Jeff Sherman]

Yeah, no, I mean look, and you know, maybe there's pay down to some of the credit cards, the, the spinning that took place. We don't know what happens when people get these checks.

[Jessica Ettinger]

But Sherman does say they anticipate some higher prices at retail this spring with inflation topping 3%.

[Jeff Sherman]

We don't think we're out of the woods yet for right about a 3% inflation. We still think you're going to see some three, three handle level inflation prints in 2026. And so I think, I think it's too early to sit here and say that everything is smooth.

[Jessica Ettinger]

More on higher inflation expectations but higher tax refunds for Americans this spring. @cnbc.com I'm Jessica Edinger. CNBC.

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