Is The US Already In A Jobs Recession 11/12/25

Summary

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Your Money Minute — Is The US Already In A Jobs Recession?

Host: Jessica Ettinger (CNBC)
Guest: Mark Zandi (Moody’s Economist)
Release Date: November 12, 2025

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Episode Overview

This brisk “Your Money Minute” episode dives into a pressing economic question: Is the United States already experiencing a jobs recession? Host Jessica Ettinger draws on a conversation with Moody’s economist Mark Zandi to highlight growing anxieties beneath headline stock numbers, as well as the looming role of AI in further disrupting the job market.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Superficial Market Optimism vs. Underlying Anxiety

• While stock prices might look reassuring, there’s widespread unease about underlying fundamentals in the labor market.
• “It all feels good when you look at these stock prices, but there’s a lot underneath it that makes me just very anxious.”
  — Mark Zandi [00:08]

2. The Job Market: “Flat On Its Back”

• According to Zandi, the U.S. job market is already severely weakened, potentially already in a jobs recession.
• Job creation is worryingly sluggish, barely producing any new opportunities.
• “You can argue we have a jobs recession already. If we’re creating any jobs, we’re not creating very many of them.”
  — Mark Zandi [00:16]

3. AI: The Imminent Disruptor

• The conversation raises concerns that current labor market weakness exists even before artificial intelligence’s true impact is felt.
• Zandi forecasts a “double whammy”: first slow growth, then possible job losses as AI adoption ramps up.
• “And that’s even before AI really kicks into gear and causes job loss.”
  — Mark Zandi [00:23]

4. The Numbers That Matter

• Robust job growth is considered a buffer against downturn, but current monthly creation falls short.
• “I wouldn’t be nearly as worried about it if we were creating 100,000 jobs a month or 125,000 jobs a month. But we’re not.”
  — Mark Zandi [00:37]

5. Where To Learn More

• The episode concludes by directing listeners to CNBC.com for the full interview and continued coverage.

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Notable Quotes

• “It all feels good when you look at these stock prices, but there’s a lot underneath it that makes me just very anxious.”
  — Mark Zandi [00:08]
• “The job market is flat on its back, right? You can argue we have a jobs recession already. If we’re creating any jobs, we’re not creating very many of them. And that’s even before AI really kicks into gear and causes job loss.”
  — Mark Zandi [00:16]
• “I wouldn’t be nearly as worried about it if we were creating 100,000 jobs a month or 125,000 jobs a month. But we’re not.”
  — Mark Zandi [00:37]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:08 — Mark Zandi expresses concern beneath stock market optimism
• 00:16 — Zandi claims the job market is already “flat on its back”
• 00:23 — Emphasis on job market slowdown before AI’s full impact
• 00:37 — Discussion of what healthy job growth should look like
• 00:43 — Direction to CNBC.com for full interview

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Episode Tone & Takeaway

The episode delivers a brisk yet sobering look at the U.S. labor market, challenging optimistic narratives driven by stock performance and highlighting the potentially underestimated threat posed by AI. Through Zandi’s candid remarks, listeners are encouraged to look beyond the surface and pay attention to job creation numbers and technological disruption.

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Transcript

[A]

With a CNBC your Money minute. I'm Jessica Ettinger. The US May already be in a jobs recession.

[B]

It all feels good when you look at these stock prices, but there's a lot underneath it that makes me just very anxious.

[A]

That's Moody's economist Mark Zandi on cnbc.

[B]

The job market is is flat on its back, right? You can argue we have a jobs recession already. If we're creating any jobs, we're not creating very many of them. And that's even before I really kicks into gear and causes job loss.

[A]

And he says with the labor market slow, before AI actually really starts taking people's jobs, it's a double whammy for the economy.

[B]

I wouldn't be nearly as worried about it if we were creating 100,000 jobs a month or 125,000 jobs a month. But we're not.

[A]

Lots more on the job market. @cnbc.com along with the entire Mark Zandi interview, I'm Jessica Ettinger. CNBC.

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