Lookin' Like A Slow Holiday Season 9/26/25

Summary

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Episode Overview

Podcast: Your Money Minute
Episode: Lookin' Like A Slow Holiday Season
Date: September 26, 2025
Host: Jessica Ettinger (CNBC)

In this quick-hit episode, CNBC’s Jessica Ettinger and colleagues break down the anticipated sluggish growth in holiday retail sales for the 2025 season. Drawing from expert forecasts and consumer data, the episode explores the impact of ongoing inflation, consumer sentiment, and how shoppers are adapting to tough economic conditions.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Modest Holiday Sales Forecast

• Forecasted Growth:

  • Courtney Reagan (CNBC) shares that Deloitte expects holiday sales to grow only 2.9 to 3.4% this year, covering November through January.
  • Quote:
    • "That is the lowest growth rate since 2018."
      — Courtney Reagan [00:11]

• Historical Context:

  • This predicted growth is the smallest in the past seven years.

2. Inflation Still Looms Large

• Current Inflation Rate:
  • Jessica Ettinger points out that inflation in August reached its highest rate since January, “back up at almost 3%.” [00:27]
• Impact of Inflation:
  • The lower end of forecasted holiday sales growth barely outpaces inflation, suggesting most shoppers won't feel much difference in value.

3. Consumer Sentiment and Economic Uncertainty

• Consumer Concerns:
  • Sarah Eisen (CNBC) summarizes new University of Michigan consumer sentiment findings:
    • Consumers are feeling “multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, rising risks to business conditions, labor markets, and inflation.” [00:41]
• Notable Quote:
  • "Consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, rising risks to business conditions, labor markets and inflation."
    — Sarah Eisen (read by Courtney Reagan) [00:41]

4. Changing Shopping Habits

• Adapting to Rising Prices:
  • Jessica Ettinger remarks that some consumers are already starting their holiday shopping early to avoid further anticipated price hikes. [00:48]
• Advice:
  • Keep up with the economy at CNBC.com.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Holiday sales are forecast to grow, the smallest this year in the last seven years. That doesn't sound great."
  — Jessica Ettinger [00:00]

• "Deloitte is already forecasting holiday sales will grow between 2.9 and 3.4%. ... That is the lowest growth rate since 2018."
  — Courtney Reagan [00:11]

• "Inflation, it's been climbing and as of August was at its highest since January, back up at almost 3%."
  — Jessica Ettinger [00:27]

• "Consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, rising risks to business conditions, labor markets and inflation."
  — Sarah Eisen (read by Courtney Reagan) [00:41]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00 – 00:11: Jessica Ettinger introduces the topic of slow projected holiday sales.
• 00:11 – 00:23: Courtney Reagan details the forecasted growth range from Deloitte and its historical significance.
• 00:23 – 00:41: Discussion of inflation climbing back up and introduction of consumer sentiment insights.
• 00:41 – 00:48: Courtney Reagan (on behalf of Sarah Eisen) summarizes University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment.
• 00:48 – 00:58: Jessica Ettinger notes consumers shopping early to avoid further price increases.

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Tone and Language

The tone throughout the episode is conversational yet matter-of-fact, blending concern about economic headwinds with practical observations about consumer behavior. The hosts rely on recent data and forecasts, offering both context and actionable insights for everyday listeners.

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Summary prepared for listeners who want a thorough yet concise snapshot of CNBC’s “Your Money Minute” episode on anticipated holiday retail trends for 2025.

Transcript

[Jessica Ettinger]

With a CNBC YOUR Money minute. I'm Jessica Edinger. Holiday sales are forecast to grow, the smallest this year in the last seven years. That doesn't sound great.

[Courtney Reagan]

Deloitte is already forecasting holiday sales will grow between 2.9 and 3.4%. They look at it for November through January. That is the lowest growth rate since 2018.

[Jessica Ettinger]

That's CNBC's Courtney Reagan.

[Courtney Reagan]

The low end of that range, of course, is only slightly better than inflation.

[Jessica Ettinger]

Inflation, it's been climbing and as of August was at its highest since January, back up at almost 3%. And here's CNBC. Sarah Eisen with the latest University of Michigan Consumer sentiment summary.

[Courtney Reagan]

Consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, rising risks to business conditions, labor markets and inflation.

[Jessica Ettinger]

Consumers are trying to figure out how to handle rising prices. Some are shopping early for the holidays, as in now to beat more price increases. Keep up on the economy. @cnbc.com I'm Jessica Ettinger, CNBC. Hey, Fidelity, what's it cost to invest with the Fidelity app? Start with as little as $1 with no account fees or trade commissions on U.S. stocks and ETFs. Hmm. That's music to my ears. I can only talk.

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