Lower Tax Refunds Than Promised, Preliminary 4/28/26

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Your Money Minute

Episode: Lower Tax Refunds Than Promised, Preliminary 4/28/26
Date: April 28, 2026
Host: Jessica Ettinger, CNBC
Duration: 60 seconds

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Main Theme

This episode unpacks new IRS data on the size of 2026 tax refunds, comparing official promises of historic record highs to the reality faced by U.S. taxpayers. CNBC’s Jessica Ettinger and personal finance correspondent Sharon Epperson discuss how actual tax refunds have fallen short of White House projections, why the numbers matter, and what factors may influence your personal refund.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Unmet Promises About Refund Size

• In January, the White House said President Trump would “deliver the largest tax refunds in US history,” projecting the average refund would go up by at least $1,000 this year. (00:11)
• However, initial IRS data does not support this projection.
  • Quote [Jessica Ettinger, 00:18]:
    “But CNBC personal finance correspondent Sharon Epperson says that hasn’t happened so far.”

2. IRS Data on Actual Refunds

• Reported Numbers [00:26]:
  • The IRS, as of March 13, reported the average refund for individuals was $3,623.
  • This is only $352 higher than last year, well below the $1,000+ increase that had been announced.
  • Quote [Jessica Ettinger, 00:34]:
    “That means the average tax refund this year $352 more than last year, not the thousand dollars plus promised to taxpayers.”

3. Factors Affecting Refunds

• Not all taxpayers benefit equally from new or expanded credits and deductions.
• Eligibility for certain tax breaks can depend on income levels and other requirements.
  • Quote [Sharon Epperson, 00:44]:
    “The amount of your refund or the balance due depends on the tax break you can claim. Experts say in some cases, taxpayers may not qualify for new or increased credits and deductions due to income and other requirements.”

4. Context and Data Scope

• The reported data is preliminary:
  • So far, only about 70 million returns have been processed (approx. 43% of the expected 160 million total).
  • The $352 average increase may change as more data is collected.
  • Quote [Jessica Ettinger, 00:56]:
    “Sharon notes that the data are from about 70 million tax returns filed and the about 160 million to come in. So that average refund increase for this year ... is preliminary and based on about 43% of all returns so far. Final numbers in the coming months.”

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Notable Quotes

• Jessica Ettinger (00:18):
  “But CNBC personal finance correspondent Sharon Epperson says that hasn’t happened so far.”
• Jessica Ettinger (00:34):
  “That means the average tax refund this year $352 more than last year, not the thousand dollars plus promised to taxpayers.”
• Sharon Epperson (00:44):
  “The amount of your refund or the balance due depends on the tax break you can claim. Experts say in some cases, taxpayers may not qualify for new or increased credits and deductions due to income and other requirements.”
• Jessica Ettinger (00:56):
  “So that average refund increase for this year of $352 is preliminary and based on about 43% of all returns so far. Final numbers in the coming months.”

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Useful Timestamps

• 00:11: White House refund promise
• 00:26: Actual IRS numbers
• 00:44: Why your refund may differ; eligibility criteria
• 00:56: Data is preliminary

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Conclusion

This short episode delivers a timely reality check for U.S. taxpayers, highlighting the gap between political promises and IRS-issued refunds. With only about 43% of tax returns processed, the episode stresses that current refund data is preliminary and subject to change. Listeners are reminded that their individual refund depends on specific eligibility for tax credits and deductions.

For more detailed coverage on income tax:
Visit cnbc.com

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Transcript

[A]

With a CNBC YOUR MONEY minute. I'm Jessica Edinger. The Trump administration said tax refunds would be very high for working Americans this spring. In late January, the

[B]

White House announced President Trump would deliver the largest tax refunds in US history, projecting the average refund would rise by

[A]

$1,000 or more this year. But CNBC personal finance correspondent Sharon Epperson says that hasn't happened so far.

[B]

The IRS reported that as of March 13, the average refund amount for individual FIL was $3,623.

[A]

That means the average tax refund this year $352 more than last year, not the thousand dollars plus promised to taxpayers.

[B]

The amount of your refund or the balance due depends on the tax break you can claim. Experts say in some cases, taxpayers may not qualify for new or increased credits and deductions

[A]

due to income and other requirements. Sharon notes that the data are from about 70 million tax returns filed and the about 160 million to come in. So that average refund increase for this year of $352 is preliminary and based on about 43% of all returns so far. Final numbers in the coming months. Lots more on income [e-mail] I'm Jessica Ettinger. CNBC

[C]

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