Mortgage Rate Roulette 3/13/25

Summary

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Your Money Minute – "Mortgage Rate Roulette" (March 13, 2025)

Episode Overview

In this concise episode, Jessica Ettinger of CNBC’s "Your Money Minute" unpacks the volatility in mortgage rates as the spring home buying season heats up. With mortgage rates remaining elevated compared to historic lows during the pandemic, Jessica and guest expert Jim Bianco discuss the factors influencing current rates, the outlook for the market, and practical advice for prospective homebuyers.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Spring Home Buying Season & Elevated Rates

• [00:00-00:18] Jessica Ettinger notes the onset of the busy spring market, highlighting that:
  • Mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed loan remain "well above those pandemic lows of 2, 3, and 4%."
  • Rates currently "loosely follow the rate on 10-year treasuries," indicating sensitivity to broader economic shifts.

2. The Role of the 10-Year Treasury Yield

• [00:18-00:28] Jim Bianco (Bianco Research) explains:
  • "You look at the 10-year yield, you know, basically since the election it's been broadly churning sideways." (Bianco, 00:18)
  • This implies relative stability in longer-term rates, but an overall lack of significant decrease.

3. Potential Economic Triggers for Higher Yields

• [00:28-00:48] Jim Bianco goes further:
  • "I don't suspect that we're going to see much more in the way of downside on the ten year. Now, it could continue to go sideways but I think if we were to see an uptick in the economy, some kind of stimulus package from the Trump administration in the form of extension of tax cuts, deregulation and the like, that you could see those yields moving up." (Bianco, 00:28)
  • Implication: Economic growth or policy changes could push rates upward rather than down.

4. Recent Mortgage Rate Volatility

• [00:48-01:05] Jessica Ettinger provides specific, recent figures:
  • Rates "were hanging around 7.2% for a 30 year fixed home loan...in the beginning of February."
  • By early March, rates had "down at six and three quarters percent." (Ettinger, 00:54)
  • Takeaway: Rates are volatile and can shift significantly even within weeks.

5. Practical Advice for Buyers

• [01:05-01:17] Ettinger’s expert tip for prospective buyers:
  • "So it's volatile. You might want to just stop waiting for a big drop and start looking to buy a house you could afford and find a mortgage company that'll give you a float down option for your loan." (Ettinger, 01:08)
  • The "float down" option allows buyers to lock in a rate with the ability to get a lower one if rates fall before closing.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the 10-year yield's recent behavior:
  "Basically since the election it's been broadly churning sideways."
  — Jim Bianco, 00:20

• On mortgage rate volatility:
  "But by the first business day of March they were down at six and three quarters percent. So it's volatile."
  — Jessica Ettinger, 00:54

• Practical buyer advice:
  "You might want to just stop waiting for a big drop and start looking to buy a house you could afford and find a mortgage company that'll give you a float down option for your loan."
  — Jessica Ettinger, 01:08

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00-00:18 – Market context: spring buying, rates compared to pandemic lows
• 00:18-00:28 – Jim Bianco explains the 10-year yield's stability
• 00:28-00:48 – Bianco on possible future rate movement and policy impacts
• 00:48-01:05 – Recent mortgage rate volatility and specific numbers
• 01:05-01:17 – Ettinger’s advice: consider float-down options and affordability

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Summary Flow & Tone

Jessica Ettinger delivers clear, up-to-the-minute personal finance advice with a tone that’s both practical and reassuring. The episode, though just a minute in length, covers several crucial data points and actionable tips for homebuyers in today’s uncertain rate environment, all backed by expert commentary from Jim Bianco.

For more, Ettinger references additional resources at CNBC.com.

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Transcript

[A]

With a CNBC your Money minute. I'm Jessica Ettinger. The spring home buying season is ramping up, but mortgage rates are still well above those pandemic lows of 2, 3 and 4% for a 30 year fixed rate home loan. Mortgage rates loosely follow the rate on 10 year treasuries.

[B]

You look at the 10 year yield, you know, basically since the election it's been broadly churning sideways.

[A]

That's Bianco Research's Jim Bianco on cnbc.

[B]

I don't suspect that we're going to see much more in the way of down downside on the ten year. Now it could continue to go sideways but I think if we were to see an uptick in the economy, some kind of stimulus package from the Trump administration in the form of extension of tax cuts, deregulation and the like, that you could see those yields moving up.

[A]

Mortgage rates were hanging around 7.2% for a 30 year fixed home loan, according to Mortgage News Daily in the beginning of February. But by the first business day of March they were down at six and three quarters percent. So it's volatile. You might want to just stop waiting for a big drop and start looking to buy a house you could afford and find a mortgage company that'll give you a float down option for your loan. Lots more on buying a [e-mail] I'm Jessica Ettinger, CNBC still jumping from tab.

[C]

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