Mortgage Rates Aren't Actually High 2/17/26

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Your Money Minute

Episode: Mortgage Rates Aren't Actually High
Date: February 17, 2026
Host: Jessica Ettinger (CNBC)
Guests: David Kelly (JP Morgan Chief Global Strategist), Brian Sullivan (CNBC)

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Overview

This concise episode of Your Money Minute tackles the perception that current mortgage rates (around 6-6.25%) are “high,” offering listeners a historical context and expert analysis to challenge this belief. Jessica Ettinger leads a discussion, joined by David Kelly and Brian Sullivan, that puts today’s mortgage rates into perspective and examines why longing for ultra-low rates may be misguided.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Perception vs. Reality: Are Rates Really High?

• [00:00-00:14]
  • Jessica Ettinger highlights dissatisfaction among homebuyers facing 6-6.25% mortgage rates.
  • The main question: Are today’s rates truly “high”?

2. Historical Context & “Free Money”

• [00:14-00:27]
  • David Kelly provides a reality check:

    “Mortgage rates are not high. ... The problem that we have in housing is the mortgage rates were way too low for a decade. That caused home prices to shoot up to levels which can't be afforded with normal mortgage rates.” — David Kelly [00:14-00:27]

  • The pandemic and years preceding saw abnormally low rates (some dubbed it “free money”), distorting people’s expectations.

3. Buyers’ Frame of Reference and Misconceptions

• [00:27-00:48]
  • Ettinger explains that newer buyers only know ultra-low rates, expect their return, and may be waiting for 2-4% mortgages that “may never come back and you may not really want them back.”
  • Emphasizes that longing for those rates ignores broader economic consequences.

4. Economic Trade-Offs: Why Low Rates Came at a Cost

• [00:48-01:05]
  • David Kelly warns about the requirements to reattain ultra-low rates:

    “To get to really low mortgage rates, you’re gonna have to have really low long term interest rates. ... The only way to get long rates down is you're gonna have to crush inflation and crush the economy.” — David Kelly [00:48-01:05]

  • Brian Sullivan jumps in:

    “Be careful what you wish.” — Brian Sullivan [00:55]

5. Historical Mortgage Rate Averages

• [01:05-01:18]
  • Jessica Ettinger brings crucial data:

    “The average home loan interest rate since Freddie Mac started keeping track back in 1971 is 7.9%. So today’s rates in the low sixes, historically, [are] very low.” — Jessica Ettinger [01:05-01:18]

  • Reference to the era of 18% mortgage rates in 1981—nobody wants to go back to those extremes.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Mortgage rates are not high. ... That caused home prices to shoot up to levels which can't be afforded with normal mortgage rates.” — David Kelly [00:14-00:27]
• “They're waiting for those [2-4% rates] to come back. But they may never come back and you may not really want them back.” — Jessica Ettinger [00:27-00:48]
• “The only way to get long rates down is you're gonna have to crush inflation and crush the economy.” — David Kelly [01:00-01:05]
• “The average home loan interest rate ... since 1971 is 7.9%. So today’s rates in the low sixes, historically, [are] very low.” — Jessica Ettinger [01:05-01:18]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00-00:14: Intro & framing the problem
• 00:14-00:27: Historical causes of today’s home prices
• 00:27-00:48: Buyer expectations vs. economic reality
• 00:48-01:05: What it takes to achieve very low rates again
• 01:05-01:18: Historical data on average mortgage rates

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Conclusion

The episode reframes the narrative: Current mortgage rates aren’t abnormally high—they’re below the long-term average. Ultra-low rates were an anomaly that contributed to unsustainable home prices and shouldn’t be the benchmark. Seeking their return could come at the expense of broader economic health.

For more, listen or read further resources at CNBC.com.

Transcript

[Jessica Ettinger]

With a CNBC your Money minute, I'm Jessica Edinger. People buying homes with mortgage rates of six or six and a quarter percent are complaining that home loan rates are just so high. But here's the truth in context.

[David Kelly]

Mortgage rates are not high. That's JP Morgan's.

[Jessica Ettinger]

Chief global strategist, David Kelly.

[David Kelly]

Problem that we have in housing is the mortgage rates were way too low for a decade. That caused home prices to shoot up to levels which can't be afforded with normal mortgage rates.

[Jessica Ettinger]

And that decade of abnormally low mortgage rates, some called it free money, was just not normal for many would be home buyers though that's their only frame of reference. They think not only did they lose out on 2, 3 and 4% mortgages, they're waiting for those to come back. But they may never come back and you may not really want them back. Here's David with CNBC's Brian Sullivan.

[David Kelly]

To get to really low mortgage rates, you're gonna have to have really low long term interest rates. The only way you're going to do that. That's what the president wants. That's what he keeps talking about.

[Brian Sullivan]

Be careful what you wish. He's going to put somebody in office that' basically try to do what he thinks.

[David Kelly]

They can do that on short rates. But the only way to get long rates down is you're gonna have to crush inflation and crush the economy.

[Jessica Ettinger]

Nobody wants the economy crushed and Nobody wants those 18% mortgages from 1981. And the average home loan interest rate since Freddie Mac started keeping track back in 1971 is 7.9%. So today's rates in the low sixes, historically very low. Lots more on [e-mail] I'm Jessica Ettinger, CNBC.

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[Brian Sullivan]

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