Not Keeping Up With Inflation 9/8/25

Summary

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Episode Overview

Title: Not Keeping Up With Inflation
Podcast: Your Money Minute by CNBC
Host: Jessica Ettinger
Air Date: September 8, 2025

In this quick, data-packed episode, CNBC’s Jessica Ettinger explores the impact of rising inflation on American households. With inflation nearing 3% and wage growth trailing behind, experts weigh in on what this means for real incomes—and why the spreading nature of inflation is cause for concern.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Wages vs. Inflation (00:00 – 00:11)

• Jessica Ettinger highlights the squeeze on consumers:
  • "Inflation is just about back up to 3%. If you're getting only a 3% raise at work, you're barely keeping up."
  • Even nominal raises may not be enough to improve real purchasing power.

2. Real Income Lagging Behind (00:11 – 00:18)

• Carl Quintanillo (citing Pantheon data) emphasizes how after-tax incomes aren't keeping up:
  • "Household real after-tax incomes [are] growing at about a 1% annual rate, obviously lower than what inflation's running."
  • Real incomes are effectively shrinking for most Americans.

3. Measuring Inflation & Its Breadth (00:18 – 00:53)

• Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index:

  • Ettinger explains:
    • "The most recent inflation numbers come from the PCE Report, the Personal Consumption Expenditures, where researchers simply keep track of prices of 178 items in the US that consumers buy."
  • More items in the PCE basket are getting pricier.

• Broadening Inflation Across Components:

  • Ryan Dietrich of the Carson Group offers key insight:
    • "CNBC 178 components of core PC 45% of them are above 3%. It was 40% at the start of the year. So we are seeing more of a broadening out on inflation." (00:41)
  • Inflation isn’t limited to a few categories; more goods and services are affected.

4. Expectations for Continued Inflation (00:53 – 01:06)

• Scott Wren of Wells Fargo, via Carl Quintanillo, shares a cautious outlook:
  • "Core PC, I mean, that's crawled higher over the last few months. We would expect it to crawl higher through the end of the year, just like we expect headline CPI to keep crawling higher." (00:56)
  • Experts predict that inflationary pressures may persist for the foreseeable future.

5. Outlook for American Households (01:06 – 01:13)

• Jessica Ettinger sums up the implications:
  • "Lots of Americans are not only treading water in terms of what their incomes will buy, but they could find themselves underwater if inflation keeps going in the wrong direction."
  • The economic squeeze could worsen for those whose incomes fail to keep pace.

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Notable Quotes

• Jessica Ettinger [00:00]:
  "If you're getting only a 3% raise at work, you're barely keeping up."

• Carl Quintanillo [00:11]:
  "Household real after-tax incomes growing at about a 1% annual rate, obviously lower than what inflation's running."

• Ryan Dietrich [00:41]:
  "45% of [core PCE components] are above 3%. It was 40% at the start of the year. So we are seeing more of a broadening out on inflation."

• Scott Wren via Carl Quintanillo [00:56]:
  "We would expect [core PCE] to crawl higher through the end of the year, just like we expect headline CPI to keep crawling higher."

• Jessica Ettinger [01:06]:
  "Lots of Americans are not only treading water in terms of what their incomes will buy, but they could find themselves underwater if inflation keeps going in the wrong direction."

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Important Timestamps

• 00:00: Introduction—wages barely keeping up with inflation
• 00:11: Real after-tax income growth lags inflation
• 00:18: How inflation is measured (PCE, 178 items)
• 00:41: Inflation broadening across more goods/services (Ryan Dietrich)
• 00:56: Expert outlook—expecting continued inflation increases (Scott Wren)
• 01:06: Summary—the risk of falling behind as inflation persists

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Tone & Takeaway

The episode maintains CNBC’s brisk and informative style, balancing facts, expert data, and down-to-earth commentary. Listeners are left with a clear sense of concern: wage growth is not keeping up with the rising cost of living, and inflation is spreading across more sectors. Americans may need to rethink their financial strategies as economic pressures build.

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Transcript

[Jessica Ettinger]

With a CNBC your Money minute. I'm Jessica Ettinger. Inflation is just about back up to 3%. If you're getting only a 3% raise at work, you're barely keeping up.

[Carl Quintanillo]

Household real after tax incomes growing at about a 1% annual rate, obviously lower than what inflation's running.

[Jessica Ettinger]

That's CNBC's Carl Quintanillo with data from Pantheon. The most recent inflation numbers come from the PCE Report, the Personal Consumption Expenditures, where researchers simply keep track of prices of 178 items in the US that consumers buy. And more and more of those items keep getting more and more expensive. Here's the Carson Group's Ryan Dietrich on.

[Ryan Dietrich]

CNBC 178 components of core PC 45% of them are above 3%. It was 40% at the start of the year. So we are seeing more of a broadening out on inflation.

[Jessica Ettinger]

And here's Wells Fargo's Scott Wren on cnbc.

[Carl Quintanillo]

Core PC, I mean, that's crawled higher over the last few months. We would expect it to crawl higher through the end of the year, just like we expect headline CPI to keep crawling higher.

[Jessica Ettinger]

Lots of Americans are not only treading water in terms of what their incomes will buy, but they could find themselves underwater if inflation keeps going in the wrong direction. Lots more on the [e-mail] I'm Jessica Ettinger.

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