Episode Overview

Podcast: Your Money Minute
Host: CNBC’s Jessica Ettinger
Episode: "Restaurants Brace For Customer Pullback"
Date: November 14, 2025
Theme:
This episode examines how economic pressures are prompting U.S. consumers, particularly those with lower and middle incomes, to cut back on dining out. Industry leaders share insight on how different segments—fast food and fast-casual—are faring as Americans scrutinize their restaurant budgets in the face of prolonged inflation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Consumer Cutbacks on Dining Out

• Main Point: Many Americans are scaling back on eating out, directly affecting the restaurant industry, especially among lower-income demographics.
  • [00:00] Jessica Ettinger introduces the theme:

    “A lot of Americans are pulling back on how much eating out they're doing these days.”

2. Fast Food Faces Pressure

• Evidence From Major Brands:
  • [00:08] Chipotle and McDonald’s reported notable earnings.
  • [00:08] Jessica Ettinger paraphrases Scott Boatwright and Eric Johnston (Cantor Fitzgerald):

    “McDonald's, where the lower end consumer is eating out less. They're making decisions to conserve money.”

  • Consumers are deciding to eat out less to save money.

3. Fast Casual Insights from Chipotle

• Consumer Spending Patterns:
  • [00:30] Scott Boatwright, Chipotle CEO, shares:

    “We've seen a pretty sizable step down in a consumer that's under $100,000 in annual income. That 25 to 34 year old, which we over index to has pulled back measurably. And we believe that consumers now eating at home more often, not necessarily eating with our competitors.”

  • The primary demographic eating out less is 25-34 year-olds with incomes below $100,000.
  • Notably, customers aren’t switching to competitors—they're opting to dine at home.

4. Contrasting Experience at Brinker (Chili’s)

• Different Results for Chili’s:
  • [00:46] Brinker CEO (ownership of Chili’s) provides counterpoint:

    “What they've been hearing from our competition is the low income consumer is pulling back, which is obviously true for the industry, but it's not true for Chili'. You know, we grew 21% across every cohort. With people under $60,000, we actually grew faster.”

  • Despite the industry trend, Chili’s reports growth, especially among customers earning under $60,000.

5. Fast Food vs. Fast Casual: Shifting Preferences

• Price Parity:

  • [01:05] Jessica Ettinger notes:

    “So there's fast food like McDonald's, Burger King, Wendy's and then there's fast casual where you sit down and you're served. When fast food prices got high to just about the same as what it cost to sit down in a fast casual restaurant, well, those fast casual restaurant names did really well.”

  • Rising prices at fast food chains have narrowed the gap between fast food and fast-casual, prompting diners to shift.

• Ongoing Consumer Budgeting:

  • [01:23]

    “Now consumers are on their fifth year of inflation. They're trying to figure out their budgets and analysts say they may not eat much after the holidays at all. Fast food or fast casual?”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “A lot of Americans are pulling back on how much eating out they're doing these days.”
  — Jessica Ettinger ([00:00])

• “We've seen a pretty sizable step down in a consumer that's under $100,000 in annual income. That 25 to 34 year old, which we over index to has pulled back measurably.”
  — Scott Boatwright, Chipotle CEO ([00:30])

• “With people under $60,000, we actually grew faster.”
  — Brinker CEO (Chili’s) ([00:50])

• “When fast food prices got high to just about the same as what it cost to sit down in a fast casual restaurant, well, those fast casual restaurant names did really well.”
  — Jessica Ettinger ([01:05])

• “They may not eat much after the holidays at all. Fast food or fast casual?”
  — Jessica Ettinger ([01:23])

Important Segment Timestamps

• 00:00 – Introduction: Consumer pullback on eating out
• 00:08 – Impact on McDonald’s and industry overview
• 00:30 – Chipotle’s CEO on the decline among younger, middle-income diners
• 00:46 – Brinker (Chili’s) CEO on growth among lower-income consumers
• 01:05 – Trend: Fast food vs. fast casual price convergence
• 01:23 – Consumers' ongoing budgeting amid inflation; outlook for after the holidays

Takeaway

This episode succinctly lays out how continued inflation and price hikes are altering where and whether Americans dine out. While fast food giants feel the pinch from budget-conscious customers, some fast casual chains like Chili’s report surprising growth—especially among lower-income diners. The dynamic shift in spending, influenced by shrinking price differences and persistent economic pressures, may lead to even greater cutbacks in restaurant visits after the holidays.

For deeper coverage, listeners are pointed to CNBC.com.