Episode Overview
Podcast: Your Money Minute
Episode Title: Retailers Hope You Spend 11/7/25
Host: Jessica Ettinger (CNBC)
Guest: Matt Shea (National Retail Federation)
Date: November 7, 2025
Theme:
This concise episode explores the current dynamics of holiday retail spending, focusing on high-income earners' impact on consumption, optimistic projections for the 2025 holiday season, and the effects of tariffs on consumers and retailers.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Spending Trends Among High Earners
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High earners’ spending habits:
Jessica Ettinger highlights a significant increase in spending by high-income households compared to pre-pandemic levels:
- “If you're a high earner, you're expected to spend, spend, spend for the holidays. And you're already likely spending way more than you did before the pandemic.” (Jessica Ettinger, 00:00)
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Shift in consumption share:
Matt Shea presents a remarkable change in the distribution of consumer spending:
- “If you go back to before the pandemic, the top 10% of households by income accounted for less than 40% of all consumption in the U.S. and today it's more than 50% driven by the top 10%.” (Matt Shea, 00:14)
Holiday Season Spending Outlook
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Retailers' optimism:
Jessica introduces Matt Shea, who shares retailers' positive expectations for the upcoming season based on consumer surveys.
- “Retailers are optimistic about sales as we get into the holiday season.” (Jessica Ettinger, 00:27)
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Near-record spending forecasts:
Shea notes:
- “The survey of consumers shows the second highest estimates ever for holiday spending by consumers. So I think that's a really good sign we're going to have a healthy season.” (Matt Shea, 00:34)
The Impact of Tariffs
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Income and sensitivity to prices:
Higher-income shoppers worry less about tariffs and price increases:
- “The higher the income, the less the consumer worries about tariffs and paying more. But somebody is paying the tariffs.” (Jessica Ettinger, 00:47)
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Who pays for tariffs?
Shea emphasizes that large-scale tariffs must impact either prices or business operations:
- “The tariff numbers are piling up. Consumer does the supplier eat it? Does the retail eat it? And margin? You can't have a $400 billion tax on the economy and have it not show up somewhere. It shows up somewhere.” (Matt Shea, 00:53)
- He observes the main responses: greater efficiency and slower hiring.
- “A number of people have suggested that part of the way it's showing up is increased efficiencies in operations and a slowdown in hiring.” (Matt Shea, 01:05)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On the transformation of consumption by income:
“...today it's more than 50% driven by the top 10%.” (Matt Shea, 00:14)
- On the optimistic but realistic view of tariffs’ consequences:
“You can't have a $400 billion tax on the economy and have it not show up somewhere.” (Matt Shea, 00:57)
- On the season’s historic spending projections:
“Second highest estimates ever for holiday spending by consumers.” (Matt Shea, 00:36)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 00:00 – Intro: High earners’ surge in holiday spending (Jessica Ettinger)
- 00:14 – Pre- vs. post-pandemic consumption by income level (Matt Shea)
- 00:27 – Retailers’ expectations for holiday sales (Jessica Ettinger)
- 00:34 – Record-breaking consumer survey results for spending (Matt Shea)
- 00:47 – Wealthier consumers’ lower sensitivity to tariffs (Jessica Ettinger)
- 00:53 – Tariffs' economic impact and business adjustments (Matt Shea)
- 01:15 – Full Matt Shea interview available on CNBC.com (Jessica Ettinger)
Summary:
In a brisk, insightful minute, CNBC’s Jessica Ettinger and the NRF’s Matt Shea paint a picture of robust, high-earning consumer spending driving the 2025 holiday season. Retailers are buoyant based on consumer surveys—despite underlying challenges from tariffs, which are reshaping costs and business practices, especially for less price-sensitive shoppers. The episode underscores how economic shifts since the pandemic continue to rewire America’s retail landscape.
