Summary2 min read

Podcast Summary: Your Money Minute

Episode: September Jobs Report Would Have Been Bad 10/8/25
Date: October 8, 2025
Host: Jessica Edinger (CNBC)
Featured Experts: Mike Santoli (CNBC), Jason Thomas (Head of Research, Carlyle)

Episode Overview

This concise episode unpacks expert insights into the US job market’s troubling trends as of September 2025. CNBC’s Jessica Edinger, alongside commentary from colleagues and experts, discusses the implications of a delayed—and potentially grim—September jobs report and what it signals for the broader economy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Weakening US Job Market

Host Jessica Edinger opens the episode by highlighting growing concerns about the US job market’s health.
- “The job market in the US has been weakening.” [00:04]
Mike Santoli offers a stark assessment:
- “The jobs market's just not that far from really setting off alarms.” [00:10]

Impact of the Government Shutdown

The September jobs report, normally released on October 3rd, was postponed due to a government shutdown.
Despite the delay, analysts leveraged alternative data to estimate trends.

The Data Behind the Concern

Jessica Edinger references new analysis from investment giant Carlyle, suggesting the unreleased report would have painted a bleak picture:
- “An analysis by investment giant Carlyle shows it would have been pretty bad.” [00:14]
Jason Thomas (Carlyle Research Head) describes the numbers behind the worry:
- “Payroll employment growth implied. From our monthly data in September, it was only 17,000. Very low.” [00:27]
Thomas contrasts this paltry gain to healthier times:
- “Particularly the deceleration entering the year 2025, payroll employment growth was about 200,000 a month.” [00:37]

Economic Implications

Jason Thomas concludes with sobering context:
- “You would think it was an economy on the cusp of recession or having already succumbed to recession.” [00:41]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Alarming Assessment:
- “The jobs market's just not that far from really setting off alarms.”
  — Mike Santoli [00:10]
Payroll Growth Collapse:
- “Payroll employment growth implied. From our monthly data in September, it was only 17,000. Very low.”
  — Jason Thomas [00:27]
On the Edge of Recession:
- “You would think it was an economy on the cusp of recession or having already succumbed to recession.”
  — Jason Thomas [00:41]

Important Segment Timestamps

[00:00-00:04] — Jessica Edinger sets the stage on job market weakness.
[00:10-00:14] — Mike Santoli’s blunt warning about economic alarm bells.
[00:14-00:37] — The postponed jobs report, Carlyle analysis, and Jason Thomas’s payroll growth data.
[00:37-00:52] — Broader economic context and the threat of recession.

Tone & Takeaway

The episode is brief, direct, and urgent, reflecting the seriousness of the economic slowdown.
Expert voices provide an unfiltered look at employment data and its implications.
Listeners are encouraged to stay updated on the job market for developing economic trends.

For ongoing coverage and updates, follow CNBC.com.

(Ad segments from [01:05] onward were excluded as per instruction.)

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Transcript11 lines

[00:00]
A
With a CNBC your Money minute. I'm Jessica Edinger. The job market in the US has been weakening. Here's CNBC's Mike Santoli with a blunt take.
[00:11]
B
The jobs market's just not that far from really setting off alarms.
[00:15]
A
The September jobs report wasn't released on October 3rd. It's scheduled day because of the government shutdown. But an analysis by investment giant Carlisle shows it would have been pretty bad.
[00:27]
B
Payroll employment growth implied. From our monthly data in September, it was only 17,000. Very low.
[00:34]
A
That's Carlyle research head Jason Thomas on CNBC.
[00:38]
B
When you see jobs growth that low, particularly the deceleration entering the year 2025, payroll employment growth was about 200,000amonth. You would think it was an economy on the cusp of recession or having already succumbed to recession.
[00:52]
A
Keep up on what's happening with jobs and the economy@cnbc.com I'm Jessica Edinger. C CNBC. Hey, Fidelity, what's it cost to invest with the Fidelity app?
[01:05]
D
Start with as little as $1 with no account fees or trade commissions on U.S. stocks and ETFs.
[01:12]
A
Hmm. That's music.
[01:13]
D
To my ears. I can only talk.
[01:17]
C
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