Episode Overview

Podcast: Your Money Minute
Host: Jessica Ettinger (CNBC)
Episode: Stock Optimism For 2026
Date: December 26, 2025
Theme:
This episode delivers a rapid, data-driven perspective on stock market optimism heading into 2026. Jessica Ettinger is joined briefly by Ryan Dietrich from Carson Group to address common investor concerns after several strong years in the stock market, evaluating the likelihood of continued gains if recession fears stay at bay.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Investor Concerns After Strong Market Performance

• (00:00) Jessica Ettinger opens by noting the skepticism some investors feel:
  • “Some investors are wary of a strong stock market because it's been so good for so long.”

2. Historic Market Patterns and Odds for 2026

• (00:09) Ryan Dietrich, Carson Group, addresses the main question:
  • “How can stocks really do well next year? You know, we've done great for three years.”
• (00:17) Dietrich references historic S&P 500 performance:
  • “If you don't have a recession, The S&P 500 is up double digits 80% of the time. If you don't have a recession, The S&P 500 is up 20%, 40% of the time.”
    • Insight: Historically, in non-recession years, the S&P 500 delivers strong double-digit returns—a statistic meant to reassure anxious investors.

3. Recent Market Returns Highlighted

• (00:29) Ettinger offers specific figures to contextualize optimism:
  • “The S&P 500 index was up 23% last year, 24% the year before.”
• (00:36) Dietrich reiterates his outlook:
  • “So we don't see recession next year. So those are some reasons why next year probably can still be pretty good.”
    • Insight: Assuming continued economic growth and no impending recession, market momentum could sustain.

4. 2025's Performance and Looking Ahead

• (00:41) Ettinger provides a market update:
  • “As of mid-December, the S&P was up about 15% so far for this year. We'll see what the final numbers turn out to be after the markets close on Wednesday, New Year's Eve Day, December 31st.”
    • Insight: Even heading into year-end, 2025 is on track for another robust gain, reinforcing a narrative of enduring strength.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ryan Dietrich (00:17):
  “If you don't have a recession, The S&P 500 is up double digits 80% of the time. If you don't have a recession, The S&P 500 is up 20%, 40% of the time.”
  (Encapsulates the statistical basis for optimism in non-recession years.)

• Jessica Ettinger (00:29):
  “The S&P 500 index was up 23% last year, 24% the year before.”
  (Quick historical context for recent market performance.)

• Ryan Dietrich (00:36):
  “So we don't see recession next year. So those are some reasons why next year probably can still be pretty good.”
  (Optimistic projection based on continued economic growth.)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00 – Investor skepticism after three strong years
• 00:09 – Ryan Dietrich on market resilience and historic data
• 00:29 – Ettinger details past S&P 500 returns
• 00:36 – Dietrich: No recession, optimism for next year
• 00:41 – Ettinger: S&P 500 up 15% YTD as of mid-December

Tone & Style

The conversation is concise and data-centric, meant to quickly reassure investors with context and historical odds. Both speakers deliver facts and interpretations in a calm but optimistic tone, focusing on key statistics rather than speculative commentary.

Summary:
Jessica Ettinger and Ryan Dietrich offer a quick, hopeful outlook for the 2026 stock market. The key message: If a recession does not occur, there is a high probability of continued positive returns, as underscored by the past three years’ double-digit growth and favorable market statistics.