What A Difference 9 Months Makes 12/12/25

Summary

Podcast Summary: "What A Difference 9 Months Makes"

Podcast: Your Money Minute (CNBC)
Host: Jessica Ettinger
Guest: Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics
Date: December 12, 2025
Duration: ~60 seconds

---

Overview

In this quick-hitting episode of Your Money Minute, Jessica Ettinger explores the paradox of strong holiday spending amidst a national affordability crisis, drawing on insights from Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics. The segment examines recent shifts in inflation, jobs, and income, highlighting how changes in government policy have shaped the economic landscape heading into the 2025 holiday season.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Affordability Crisis vs. Consumer Spending

• Contradictory Trends:
  • The US is facing an “affordability crisis” as consumer sentiment remains near all-time lows.
  • Despite this, spending levels are robust and retailers anticipate a strong holiday season.
  • (00:00–00:14)

2. Disparities Across Income and Wealth

• Divergence by Income Group:
  • Mark Zandi points out spending strength is concentrated among wealthier households, with less spending power for middle- and lower-income groups.
  • Quote [Mark Zandi, 00:14]:

    "That hides a lot of differences. The folks at the top end of the income and wealth distribution, they're doing quite well. Spending is very strong. Folks in the lower parts and middle parts of the income wealth distribution, not so much."

3. Causes: Inflation, Jobs, and Policy

• Economic Setbacks:
  • Zandi attributes the renewed financial stress to two main factors:
    • The acceleration of inflation earlier in the year.
    • Weakening in both the job market and wage growth.
  • He links these to recent tariff and immigration policy changes.
  • Quote [Mark Zandi, 00:29]:

    “The thing that's really brought this back to the as an issue is the acceleration in inflation that we've seen since the beginning of the year and the weakening in the job market and income and wages since the beginning of the year. Anything that all goes back to the tariffs and immigration policy.”

4. What Could Have Been: The Policy “What If”

• Inflation Trajectory Reversed:
  • If not for these policy changes, Zandi suggests, inflation would have been on target with the Federal Reserve’s goal by December.
  • Quote [Jessica Ettinger, 00:46]:

    “Zandi adds that the US was on pace for 2% inflation here in December if not for policy changes in Washington coming into the year.”

  • Quote [Mark Zandi, 00:56]:

    “Inflation was decelerating. Job growth was strong. It felt like we were going in the right direction ... Looked like inflation was going to be back to the Federal Reserve's target—you know, something we all feel reasonably comfortable with by now.”

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Disparity Highlight:

  • “The folks at the top end of the income and wealth distribution, they're doing quite well. ... Folks in the lower parts ... not so much.”
    — Mark Zandi, 00:14

• Policy Impact Reflection:

  • “If there had been no change in policy ... looked like inflation was going to be back to the Federal Reserve’s target ... by now.”
    — Mark Zandi, 00:56

---

Key Timestamps

• 00:00–00:14: Jessica Ettinger introduces the affordability paradox and consumer outlook.
• 00:14–00:26: Mark Zandi highlights the disparities in spending across income groups.
• 00:29–00:46: Zandi explains how inflation and weakening income/labor markets are linked to policy changes, mainly tariffs and immigration.
• 00:46–01:14: Zandi discusses how, absent policy shifts, inflation was on track for a 2% target.

---

Tone & Language

• The episode utilizes clear, expert analysis with a direct, informative tone.
• Zandi’s observations are concise but data-driven, and Jessica Ettinger’s delivery frames the topic with urgency and clarity, perfectly suited for a quick personal finance rundown.

---

Transcript

[A]

With a CNBC your Money minute. I'm Jessica Ettinger. The US Is dealing with an affordability crisis as consumer sentiment is near all time lows. But people are still spending and retailers are optimistic for strong holiday sales.

[B]

That hides a lot of differences. The folks at the top end of the income in wealth distribution, they're doing quite well. Spending is very strong. Folks in the lower parts and middle parts of the income wealth distribution, not so much.

[A]

Moody's analytics chief economist Mark Zandi on cnbc.

[B]

The thing that's really brought this back to the as an issue is the acceleration in inflation that we've seen since the beginning of the year and the weakening in the job market and income and wages since the beginning of the year. Anything that all goes back to the tariffs and immigration policy.

[A]

And Zandi adds that the US was on pace for 2% inflation here in December if not for policy changes in Washington coming into the year.

[B]

Inflation was decelerating. Job growth was strong. It felt like we were going in the right direction. You know, based on our modeling, it looked like inflation would have been if there had been no change in policy. Look like inflation was going to be back to the Federal Reserve's target. You know, something that we all feel reasonably comfortable with by by now.

[A]

The full interview with Moody's Mark Sandy [e-mail] I'm Jessica Ettinger.

[C]

CNBC introducing Fidelity Trader plus, the next generation of advanced trading from Fidelity. Customize your tools and charts and access them seamlessly across desktop, web and mob. For faster trades anywhere you go, try the all new Fidelity Trader Plus. Learn more about our most powerful trading platform yet at fidelity.com Trader+ investing involves risk, including risk of loss. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC Member nyse, SIPC.