Zero Hour with James Poulos: Episode 85 Summary

Episode Title: Trump's Plan to Clean Up the Middle East Mess Biden & Obama Left
Guest: Jacob Siegel
Release Date: February 17, 2025
Host: James Poulos
Produced by: Blaze Podcast Network

Introduction and Context

In Episode 85 of Zero Hour with James Poulos, host James Polis welcomes Jacob Siegel, a senior writer at Tablet magazine and host of the Manifesto podcast. The discussion centers around the seismic shifts in the Middle East's geopolitical landscape, particularly focusing on the roles of former President Donald Trump, current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and the declining influence of leaders like Biden and Obama.

Israel's Strategic Advancements and the Decline of Regional Adversaries

Timestamp 00:00 – 04:26

Jacob Siegel highlights Israel's significant military success in dismantling the Assad regime and Hezbollah's infrastructure. He credits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for orchestrating these strategic moves, effectively removing major Iranian proxies from Israel's border and establishing a robust security perimeter in southern Lebanon.

Jacob Siegel (01:23):
"Israel running through Hezbollah... knocking out Hezbollah in that way created an opening that Turkey then capitalized on, pushing its own kind of proxy forces deeper into Syria."

Siegel emphasizes how Israel leveraged technological superiority to execute targeted operations, minimizing prolonged conflict and focusing on dismantling command structures and missile supplies.

The Role of Technology in Modern Warfare

Timestamp 04:26 – 09:52

James Polis brings up Paul Virilio’s concepts on the logistics of perception in warfare, praising Israel’s use of technology to dominate Hezbollah without extensive ground battles.

James Polis (04:26):
"Using technology to... blow up a relative handful of pagers, blow up a relative handful of arms caches and missile storage..."

Jacob Siegel acknowledges the sophistication of these operations but cautions that replicating such success is challenging. He underscores that ultimately, military willpower remains crucial.

Jacob Siegel (06:06):
"The key determinant... still relies on will. It still relies on who's willing to fight and to what end."

The Waning Influence of Iran in the Region

Timestamp 09:52 – 23:15

Siegel delves into Iran's diminished deterrence following the downfall of Hezbollah, comparing it to the rapid collapse of the Afghan regime. He criticizes Obama and Biden administrations for flawed policies that inadvertently strengthened Iranian influence by treating Iran as a strategic partner.

Jacob Siegel (11:02):
"When you take Hezbollah away, Iran has very little deterrence left. It’s exposed as a kind of paper tiger."

Siegel argues that the U.S. misguidedly invested in Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, fostering dependency instead of true stability. This strategic blunder has left Iran vulnerable and exposed.

U.S. Foreign Policy Missteps Under Obama and Biden

Timestamp 15:37 – 23:15

Examining the roots of current instability, Siegel traces back to the 2003 Iraq invasion and subsequent nation-building failures. He criticizes the Obama administration's pivot to Iran, which he views as a catastrophic decision that underestimated Iran's actual capabilities and intentions.

Jacob Siegel (18:23):
"These were... traditionally a client state of Iran. So cutting that off would be a good place to start."

Siegel contends that Obama’s strategy of elevating Iran as a regional stabilizer was fundamentally flawed, leading to increased Iranian influence over Iraq and undermining U.S. interests.

Prospects for the Middle East Under Trump’s Leadership

Timestamp 23:15 – 37:31

The conversation shifts to the potential geopolitical realignments with Trump's presidency. Siegel posits that Trump’s "maximum pressure" campaign and the elimination of key Iranian figures like Qasem Soleimani have significantly altered the regional power dynamics.

Jacob Siegel (27:44):
"The region is totally different now because that essential condition, which was... partnership with Iran, has been discontinued."

Siegel forecasts that Netanyahu, empowered by Trump, may push for more aggressive strategies against Iran, possibly targeting nuclear facilities, thereby altering the balance of power further.

Civilizational Shifts and the Influence of AI

Timestamp 41:57 – 53:25

Siegel offers a broader perspective on global geopolitical shifts, arguing that secularism is waning and civilizational identities are resurging, heavily influenced by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI).

Jacob Siegel (41:57):
"Secularism as a kind of civilizational force is in its last days... civilizational blocks will be characterized by their relationship to artificial intelligence."

He suggests that nations will align based on their civilizational identities and their ability to integrate and control AI technologies, which will define future power structures.

The Future of Israel and Christian Minorities in the Middle East

Timestamp 37:31 – 48:37

Addressing the internal dynamics within Israel, Siegel predicts a shift towards a more religious and nationalist society. He discusses the potential implications for Christian minorities, noting that a stronger Israeli stance could deter Islamist attacks.

Jacob Siegel (38:50):
"If the second Trump term is anything like the first Trump term, the whole region will be more peaceful. And the actors... will think twice if there is a credible deterrent because Trump is in office."

Siegel also touches upon the evolving relationship between American Christians and Israel, suggesting that progressive influences may strain traditional support unless countered by policies promoting peace and stability.

Conclusion: Strength as the Foundation for Peace

Timestamp 56:54 – 58:47

In closing, Siegel emphasizes the necessity of strength in international relations to maintain peace. He praises Trump’s approach of using military and economic power to protect American interests without imposing American values on other nations.

Jacob Siegel (58:38):
"Strength is the real undergirding of peace... use strength in service of protecting what is united, unique in America."

Both hosts express cautious optimism that civilizational identities can coexist and that strategic strength can foster peaceful international relations.

Notable Quotes

• Jacob Siegel (01:23):
  "Knocking out Hezbollah in that way created an opening that Turkey then capitalized on..."

• Jacob Siegel (06:06):
  "The key determinant... still relies on will. It still relies on who's willing to fight and to what end."

• Jacob Siegel (11:02):
  "When you take Hezbollah away, Iran has very little deterrence left."

• Jacob Siegel (18:23):
  "Cutting that off [U.S. funding to Iran-backed Iraqi government] would be a good place to start."

• Jacob Siegel (27:44):
  "The region is totally different now because that essential condition... has been discontinued."

• Jacob Siegel (41:57):
  "Secularism as a kind of civilizational force is in its last days."

• Jacob Siegel (38:50):
  "The whole region will be more peaceful."

• Jacob Siegel (58:38):
  "Strength is the real undergirding of peace..."

This episode of Zero Hour offers an incisive analysis of the Middle East's evolving geopolitical landscape, underscored by strategic military actions, technological advancements, and shifting alliances. Jacob Siegel provides a compelling critique of past U.S. policies and outlines a vision for a more stable and balanced region under Trump's leadership, highlighting the enduring importance of strength in achieving and maintaining peace.