Adam Mastroianni says he likes to "study how people perceive and misperceive their social worlds, from the person sitting across the table to the whole country buzzing around them." In this Blue Sky conversation, Dr. Mastroianni describes research he and a colleague conducted that demonstrates that human beings falsely assume that the world used to be better, and that we continue to decline in terms of moral standards and civil behavior. This cognitive "bug" he has detected can lead us to develop a more pessimistic view of the world and also leaves us more susceptible to believe in the message of autocrats who promise to take us back to a time when the world – and people – were somehow better than they are today. Adam's insights are fascinating, as are the techniques he uses in his research, and he explains his findings and observations with great wit and wisdom.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction to Dr. Adam Mastroianni The host introduces Dr. Adam Mastroianni, an experimental psychologist and author of 'Experimental History,' who will discuss a curious psychological phenomenon.

03:08 The Illusion of Decline: A Mental Bug Dr. Mastroianni explains his research on why people perceive the world as getting worse, even when it's improving. He attributes this to two phenomena: negativity bias, which makes us focus on bad information, and fading affect bias, where bad memories fade faster than good ones.

06:38 Historical Perception and Global Trends The discussion delves into how this 'bug' affects perceptions of the past, even before one's birth, creating a 'good old days' illusion. Research from 60 different countries shows a consistent belief in moral decline, suggesting it's a universal psychological tendency rather than event-driven.

11:09 Ignorance of History and Political Divide The conversation explores whether a lack of historical awareness contributes to the illusion of decline. Dr. Mastroianni and the host discuss how historical events, like the caning of Senator Charles Sumner, put current political divides in perspective, highlighting that 'unprecedented' times are often precedented.

15:45 Political Ramifications and Research Methods The host and Dr. Mastroianni discuss how the belief in moral decline can be exploited by autocrats promising to restore a non-existent past. Dr. Mastroianni details his research methods, including economic games and surveys across cultures, to demonstrate how people consistently misperceive a decline in qualities like honesty, even when evidence suggests the opposite.

23:59 Media, Confirmation Bias, and Satisfaction The conversation shifts to the role of media and confirmation bias in reinforcing negative perceptions. Dr. Mastroianni introduces the concept that people often imagine how things could be better, even excellent things like pets, contributing to a constant state of dissatisfaction and driving consumer culture.

33:01 Optimism, Technology, and Research Directions The host asks if the 'things could be better' mindset offers a glimmer of optimism, even if it often fuels dissatisfaction. They briefly touch upon technology, like AI, as a new area where people project both extreme hopes and fears, and Dr. Mastroianni discusses his future research, focusing on meta-science and finding a unifying paradigm for psychology.

37:57 Debunking Myths and Embracing the Unknown Dr. Mastroianni emphasizes that much of what we believe in science is likely wrong, and open discourse is crucial for progress, dispelling the myth that 'everything has been invented.'