Podcast
Breakaway - Investing & Finance
Hosted by Sean Hathaway · EN
Breakaway from the haters and mainstream thought. Learn about Investing, Finance and the Economy in a plain english and entertaining way. Understand the business environment and make money investing. Uncertainty in the markets driven by crisis, anarchy, politics and craziness is simply opportunity. Facts and truth here.
30episodes
Episodes
Newest firstAll episodes
SpaceX, DOGE, Netflix, Tesla
Nov 20, 2024Tap to summarizeSpaceXNeeds to be celebrated an honored. President Trump in attendance. Starship 6 launch! 120 meters tall. Each Raptor rocket engine produces twice as much thrust as all 4 engines on a 747. 33 Raptors = 66 747’sPointy RocketsElon on call with Sundar Ron Baron on Cost Plus contracts. PoliticsHow is Kamala in debt? Beyonce 10m? Oprah $1m for an interview?https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1855432554666664043Trump spent $345.42 Million$10.4 Million was spent on StaffKamala Spent $1.37 BillionKamala Spent $582.53 Million on StaffMarc and Ben on Policy Recap at 2:00 min It was the worst four years in our career in terms of White House policy as it related to technology and and business more broadly.DOGEVivek and Elon to to lead DOGE (Dept of Govt efficiency)Milton Friedman on getting rid of federal agencies. Elon explains why important. “There are around 428 federal agencies. There's so many that people have never even heard of.From Vivek: Here’s a key point about our mission at DOGE.From Elon: All actions of the Department of Government Efficiency will be posted online for maximum transparency.We will also have a leaderboard for most insanely dumb Javier Milei: Afuera 🤣BitcoinNew highs over $92k. Innovators Dilemna Netflix and TeslaNetflix$878…. All-time highsJake Paul/ Tyson fight The event was #1 in 78 countries.Streaming issues and outage.Squid Game. Dec 26 Most viewed non-english show ever. 2 Christmas day NFL games. Sold out all advertising. Tesla$346 yesterday. $1.1T market Cap. Trump's transition team have told advisers they plan to make a federal framework for fully self-driving vehicles one of the Transportation Department's priorities.Ron Baron on Tesla: Play at 3:23. Tesla $3-5 trillion in 10 years. Robots in China!! Xpeng. Nvidia EarningsCollege Chamath PalihapitiyaParents: Help pick your kids’ college wisely.RecommendationsPenguinJoe and Theo! Lex and Javier Milei - Argentinian President
Transcribe →President, NFLX, TSLA, Markets, oh my!
Nov 8, 202400:33:21Tap to summarizeBiden is laughing his ass off right now!! Here’s a funny thread of conspiracy: Peppy walk & talk. Jill wearing all RED!! Markets are booming ridiculously: S&P 500 hits record high today at 6000. FATMANN: Bitcoin at $76,000. This does feel “frothy”Fed Cut rates again. Federal-funds rate to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. All 12 Fed voters backed the cut.Bad for money markets good for economic growth. Netflix$798. Call it $800. All time high on Mkt cap about $340 billion. Tyson vs Jake Paul. 3-part documentary. Fight on Nov 15. Next Friday at 5:00pm. Palantir and NvidiaPalantir: Up 40% in the week.Nvidia: All time high at $148. $3.6 trillion. Largest company in world. Tesla: Stock at $326. $1 trillion market cap. Up 30% this week. $410 is high. So still 30% upside. Musk bet the farm. Could have been deported. Govt is/was after him. Lawsuits done. DOJ suing SpaceX for not hiring asylum seekers! ‘Gene Munster on Tesla and RobotaxiAutonomy IS HAPPENING! Now less govt regulation. Robots: Xping in China showing of Robots. Why is this good?! Robot videos. Robots ARE HAPPENING! PoliticsBiden seems skippy! Key difference now is long form podcasts! I (and others) really got to know Donald, JD, Tulsi, RFK. I didn’t hear an interview with ANYONE on Kamala’s team. Andrew Yang said HUGE mistake not going on Joe Rogan. BTW, don’t forget Rogan endorsed Bernie! He got screwed. So did Tulsi and RFK, because they refused to be puppets. Dems: Time to return to “normal”Maybe have a primary next time! Immigration: Bill Clinton in 1995 on immigration. Forever foreign wars and industrial military complex. Over regulation 450 govt agencies! and over-spending! Inflation is messy, but was clearly on people’s mindsDefunding Police!? People want clean safe neighborhoods.Final Point: Good reset opportunity. We’ll be fine. Wait One more thing:Epstein list!!! These guys are fucked! More than 150 names may be made public as part of a settled civil lawsuit against British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell — who was found guilty of conspiring with Epstein to sexually abuse underage girls for at least a decade — Maxwell "the mastermind" behind Epstein's sex trafficking ring.Diddy videos! Probably funny. University of Oregon: Leonard Serrato. Here what he has to say! Recommendations?Get outside! Save and invest your money.
Transcribe →Bend OR, Google, MSFT, Meta, XAI, President
Nov 2, 202400:25:51Tap to summarizeOpeningI make mistakes on my podcasts. Please feel free to comment and fact-check me. It's hard. I try to go hard and not pause.Oregon plays Michigan today. Ducks favored by 14.5Redmond:Parents.Cold.Food carts and BEER!!! Need that in San Jose! Huge business opportunity!Single digit golf stats: MarketsOverall strong earnings, but seeing some pullback. Can’t bet against these big guys. Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio:2.0 almost at all time high. Last time at 2 was Nov 2021. CAPE Ratio: 3538 in Nov 2021. 44 in Dec 1999. Ford, Meta, Google, Microsoft, XAIFord EarningsFord to idle production of F150 Lightning. Ford has sold a mere 22,807 Lightnings so far this yearFord’s EV division has lost $3.7 billion during the first three quarters of this year—about $55,000 per EV—and expects $5 billion to $5.5 billion in losses this year.Tesla Net Income $2.2 billion. Meta: These numbers are insane!Revenue up $6b or 19%. $41b vs $34bNet income up $4b (35%). . $16 vs $12. Google /Alphabet EarningsRevenues up 15% to $88.3 billion.Net income increased 34%MicrosoftRevenue was $65.6 billion and increased 16%xAI plans to bring online an additional 100,000 Nvidia GPUs at its Memphis. President of the USTrump on RoganJD Vance on RoganTulsi and RFK have also been on Rogan. And Elon. Kamala on Call her DaddyHillary Clinton in 2008:“If they’ve committed a crime… DEPORT THEM! No questions asked. PolyMarket: Jeff Bezos on Washington Post - TRUSTRegulations: From Chamath: Remember the Whales, Sharks and Seal studies from SpaceX. Recommendations:The Penguin on Max. Slow Horses on Apple. The Lioness on Paramount. Not easy to figure out!! Hours on phone/internet with Xfinity. No humans…impossible.
Transcribe →Tesla! AI, Self-driving, Waymo, Govt Overreach
Oct 24, 202400:32:52Tap to summarizeOregon Duck FootballPurdue 35-0. Ranked #1. Markets Netflix EarningsNew record high. $752 today, but reached $772. Maybe running ahead of itself a little, but still pure streaming play with no end of growth in site. Q4: Tyson, Football, Squid…Tesla EarningsTesla up almost 22% today. At $260. High was 410. Sandy Munroe set me straight! Investor DeckEveryone should simply listen to the Earnings Call. Elon said 20-30% growth next year. Full autonomy approved and ride-hailing in CA and TX in 2025. Safer than humans by Q2 2025Full scale production of CyberCab by 2026. No steering wheel and no pedals. Big screen for movies and comfortable. Cybertruck became the third best-selling EV in Q3 in the U.S. (behind only Model Y and Model 3)Increased AI training compute by over 75% in Q3Over two billion miles driven cumulatively on FSD (Supervised)4 as of Q3 with more than 50% on V12Two key points coming here:Ability to learn. 10k miles per intervention. Optimus!!! Dexterity movement. 22 degrees of freedom. Human = 27. Doorknobs.Think about the AI real-world functionality. Most advanced humanoid robot by a long-shot! Only company that can scale manufacturing. Optimus will be most valuable part of company. The Services and Other business achieved a record gross profit in Q3, growing over 90% year-on-year. Financials:A lot of talk about the “machines” that build the machines. Most advanced factories in the world! Energy revenue up 52% YoY and Services up 29% YoY. Gross profit up 20%, with revenue up 8% Uber Demand aggregator?Self-driving cars: WSJ on Waymo and San Francisco, LA, Phoenix and Austin.Waymo is on a marketing blitz that includes social-media ads promoting the privacy of its cars for date nightAlso going to partner thru Uber app. Competition is good and will keep regulators in check. Google Waymo. Amazon: Zoox. GM: CruiseGoogles Waymo Now Obviously the Leader in Self-Driving Cars 🤣Lot’s talk tech: Waymo uses a combination of sensors and software to enable autonomous driving.Government Over-reachThis story of strangulation by over-regulation from @elonmusk about the government requiring @SpaceX to assess whether their rockets could potentially hit SHARKS and WHALES is side-splittingly hilarious. SealsDOGE Dept of Government EfficiencyCCDH…Speaking X Twitter: Leaked documents from the Center for Countering Digital Hate reveal their primary goal is to "Kill Musk's Twitter"CA Electric Bills! Recommendations:Rogan and Jelly Roll Trump Going on Rogan Podcast Tomorrow
Transcribe →Oregon Ducks, 529s, Nvidia, XAI, RoboTaxi, NFLX, Crypto
Oct 17, 202400:28:48Tap to summarizeBettina's Fall/Winter 2024 Fall Fashion ShowOregon wins 32-31 over Ohio StateExploiting loophole in rules. NCAA to close loophole. In the National Football League, the clock reverts back to the original time on a 12-man penalty — that is not the case in college football.10 seconds to go. 3rd and 25. Put an extra defender on field. Then either:(a) Buckeyes make a play and decline penalty. Or (b) Penalty accepted, and 4 seconds off clock. Only 5 yds gained. Now only 6 seconds on clock and need 10-12 yds to make field goal more realistic. Time more important than yards. 529 Plans and MarketsFidelity or Vanguard. Done. Wealthfront: couldn’t find the underlying portfolio holdings? Holdings are WAY too conservative. 6000/month &6% or 7&7. Gets you between $200-$250k. 529 Rollovers? Can’t roll it all to a Roth. $35,000 lifetime. RoboTaxi - We-Robot EventElon key note. Stayed in LA at Burbank Hotel. Nice. Elevator operator analogy. Cyber Cab unveil. Below $30k. No wheels or pedals. Production in 2026 (optimistic). Inductive charging. No plug. Fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in CA and Texas in 2025. Model 3Van that can carry up to 20 people or packaging. OptimusServing drinks and interacting with everyone there. Rumor is some human involvement. My interaction with Optimus. Sub-optimalShould cost $20-30k. Still thinks it will be biggest product ever of any kind. Everyone will want an optimus “buddy”. Nvidia and XAI: Jensen Juang on Brad Gerstner Podcast. 100m AI assistants to aid his workforce. Jensen talking to Brad: https://x.com/ajtourville/status/1845481395625304331?s=51&t=YUkdoBz4yNifBaQlQUp3-g“Never been done before – xAI did in 19 days what everyone else needs one year to accomplish. “Easily the fastest super computer on the planet”. Normally 3 years to plan and 1 year to set up. That is superhuman – There's only one person in the world who could do that – Elon Musk is singular in his understanding of engineering.” From Pierre FerraguHiiveCan buy SpaceX and XaI there. Sometimes with major conditions, like annual fee and “carry” of 10-20%. Netflix Earnings: Strong. CryptoBest asset class returns in 5 and 10 years…not fair to go back further? How much to own? Why? And where to hold it/ how to invest in it? IBIT and ETHA.Tight correlation to underlying assets. Managed by iShares/ Blackrock, so probably good controls in place. Fees are reasonable.Recommendations:Wife: Citadel Diana on Amazon
Transcribe →Markets, Netflix, Amazon, Apple, Elon/Tucker
Oct 10, 202400:25:45Tap to summarizeInterest rates down. Money market from 5.3% to 4.7% Get in now or wait? CAPE Ratio still high at 35. Mutual Funds! High Fees!Beating the marketInflation Milton Friedman on inflationNetflixStock all time high around $730. Up 49% YTD, compared to S&P500 at 23%Piper Sandler analyst Matt Farrell said Netflix "is a clear leader in streaming," according to The Fly. He upgraded the company to overweight from neutral and boosted his price target to $800 from $650. TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge raised the firm's price target on Netflix to $820 from $775 while maintaining a buy rating on the shares.Netflix (NFLX) is expected to benefit from a long runway for revenue growth and a deepening competitive moat, Morgan Stanley said in a report Thursday.The report also pointed to above consensus expectations for operating leverage and EPS."Our analysis of Netflix new 1H24 engagement report reinforces our bullish view," Morgan Stanley said, adding that the latest engagement report is backing the "Netflix content advantage," referring to its original programming, international content, and the value of its content library.Following "peak TV" and recent strikes, Hollywood's new normal favors Netflix, with reduced competition for content and media studios open to licensing again, the report said. It said the ad-tier introduction would also help raise revenue.Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the stock to $820 from $780 while reiterating its overweight rating.Apple At $228 vs high of $234. Downgraded by Jeffries.Is Apple Intelligence a thing?Iphone is 50% of salesIs Iphone 16 enough?Me thesis:Entire family uses. Customer service is insanely good!! All photos there. Ear buds. Amazon$187, was around $200. Not sure how you bet against Amazon. In 2023, Amazon was the third largest digital ad publisher in the United States, behind Google and Facebook. Amazon's global ad revenue reached $49 billion in 2023, which is nearly triple its 2019 result.Fabric of life. Everyday we get a package. First place I go to search/buy. Free returns. Easy. MicrosoftTo buy 3-mile island. Newsom bans voter id requirements. Elon Musk on Tucker23.30 on is Epstein list discussion. Videos. Diddy and Epstein. 28.00 - How will they let X continue? Lawfare!! Illegal to discriminate asslym seekers, but can’t hire as SpaceX. Point is DOJ is weaponized. Cuban on All In Podcast. Monsters on NetflixSlow Horses (called it White Horses before)Wife watching “Troy: Fall of a City”
Transcribe →Diddy, Markets, PE Ratios, NY Mayor, SpaceX, Meta
Sep 27, 202400:26:43Tap to summarizeLifeYoga life. College admissions: Tulane:Tuition and Fees: $69kHousing: $11k. Meals: $8kBooks: $1kTotal: $88,000. * 4 = $352,000Wow. College can be very expensive!Diddyhttps://youtu.be/NKMtZm2YuBE?si=irc0uxpLLHbHpBjE&t=53What’s up with Diddy? His fashion label, Sean John. Not a bad nameThe rapper is “going to fight this with all of his energy and all of his might,” and during a court hearing argued that the so-called freak-offs — marathon sexual productions that prosecutors say involved hired sex workers and women coerced to perform sexual acts for the gratification of Combs and others — were consensual, if unconventional. “Is it sex trafficking?” he asked in court last week. “No, not if everybody wants to be there.”Lot’s of tapes recordings. So be careful if you go to a sex party. Know you’re getting recorded. Be cool with it. authorities say they seized “more than 1,000 bottles of baby oil and lubricantAny similarities to Epstein here?MarketsEverything is up. S&P 500 up 20% YTD.As a reminder: 10%: Double in 7 years. 7% double in 10 years. What is PE or Price to Earnings? PE definition and explanationWhen you make an investment and pay cash you’re looking to receive more cash ultimately than you put in. Price to Earnings Ratio. Value of company; i.e. Market Cap. Divided by Earnings (12 months). Example: Company is valued at $100m. Earns $5m per year. PE = 20. Could think of it as 20 years to get your money back thru earnings. Cape RatioCape Ratio (like PE) average of top 500 US Companies since 1950 is about 20. Now it is at 35. Seems high right? Don't be surprised if there is a 10-20% correction in next 6-12 months. NY MayorDidn’t toe the line and he is paying the price. Eric Adams indicted. Bill Ackman explains. Eric SpeechFAA Hates SpaceXRep. Kiley Questions FAA Administrator Michael Whitaker at T&I Committee HearingSpaceX letter refuting everything the FAA administrator said. Let them launch for crying out loud. Tesla Stock BoomingI somehow got invited to Tesla AI event!?MetaOrion Glasses NetflixAll time high. Still the best pure streaming play. SouthwestNo more open seating and adding premium seating! Recommendations:Instigators on Apple TVChamath on Joe Rogan.
Transcribe →Markets, Interest Rates, AI, Netflix, SpaceX
Sep 20, 202400:41:18Tap to summarizePersonalYogaGolf LessonMarketsS&P500 up 20%VGT up 19%Dividends/value up 11%. 3.36% yieldBTW: 5 years ago you buy VGT: you’re up 2.7x. $100k = $270kVOO: up 2x = $200kAt 7% annualized return = double in 10 years. At 10% annualized return = double in 7 years. At 20% annualized return = double in 4 yearsFed just cut by 0.5%. First cut since 2020. I.e. Covid. Current federal-funds rate is at 5.25% to 5.50%, Expect 0.75% of cuts in 2024. Meeting Sept 18. 2 more this year. 2.00% to 2.25% by year-end 2026.So what does this mean? Money Market lower returns.Mortgage rates should come down. Car loans down. Good for Tesla. Government Debt per WSJAccording to recent data, interest expense currently makes up around 13% of the US government budget, representing the third largest spending category behind Social Security and Medicare.Demand for AIListen to Larry Ellison explaining the crazy demand for AI. Netflix:All time high.I still think its recession proof! Seems like Q4 subscription #’s should be HUGE! WHY? New events: Boxing: Tyson and Jake PaulThe fight, which will be held over eight two-minute rounds, will now take place on November 15 at the At&T Stadium in Texas.Tyson, 58 is 30 years older than Jake. Squid game: Squid Game Season 2 will premiere on Dec. 26, Most-watched series: Squid Game became Netflix's most-watched series and the most-watched program in 94 countries.NFL Football x-mas. On Dec. 25, 2024, we’ll be the global home of the NFL’s two Christmas Day marquee games:TeslaTesla Semi: PepsiCo drivers love it. PepsiCo said today that their drivers who operate the company's Tesla Semi trucks have reported that, after driving the electric truck, they don't want to go back to driving a diesel truck.Elon on All In Podcast Summit15:40 on Fresh Water dumping and $140k fine. Inspiration. Uncrewed landing to Mars in 2026 Crews in 2028 if successful (and if government gets out of way). Recommendations:All In - Megyn KellyAll In - John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs. Univ of Chicago and Columbia. All In - Interview with Dave PortnoyNapoleon on Apple.
Transcribe →Government, Markets, Roth 401k, Nvidia, SpaceX
Sep 12, 202400:35:01Tap to summarizeTrump & Kamala Debate: Boring and horrible. Name calling. Accusations. Nothing interesting or intelligent. Markets:YTD: S&P up 16%.Tech (QQQ) up 15%.High Quality up 10%.Building Wealth for your kids: My Blog analysis on Building wealth for kids. 529s and Roth 401k. Small investments over time create generational wealth.Nvidia$3t market cap. $30b revenue/qtr. $28b in cashflow.Mgmt style: Jensen Huang on Working. Government vs Capitalists: All in at 56.30: Friedberg: Do you want someone who has lived in government or is not a government operative? Career civil servants vs. capitalists. 1.17.40. Government spending is 50% of GDP. So could say ½ of people are employed directly or indirectly by government. Free market system is finished if there are more “takers” than “makers”.Government Efficiency (oxymoron):Donald Trump on Government efficiency commission:From WSJ: Trump Proposes 15% Tax Rate for Some Companies and a Role for Elon Musk in GovernmentElon Musk has said that all laws/regs should be auto-repealed after 20 years or some time. Otherwise we’re in a web of bureaucracy. Getting a Loan from DOE is near impossible. I have a story.TeslaTesla Robotaxi day on October 10. SpaceXThe company confirmed that the SpaceX Crew Dragon spacecraft carrying the crew reached its peak altitude of 1,400.7 kilometers (870 miles).That distance surpassed the record set by NASA’s 1966 Gemini 11 missionAlso!!! 60 day delay for Starship launch. “Unfortunately, we continue to be stuck in a reality where it takes longer to do the government paperwork to license a rocket launch than it does to design and build the actual hardware,” the firm said. “This should never happen and directly threatens America’s position as the leader in space.”https://www.spacex.com/updates/Nuclear Power imperative by Bill and Brad.Recommendations:Bryson DeShambeau on YouTube:Breaking 50. With Tony Romo (64 is his lowest round). Eagled 1st hole!! Podcasts:Smartless interview with Michael Keaton. Rogan ActorsRussel CroweDennis QuaidTV: Wyatt Earp on Netflix.
Transcribe →Markets booming, Mag 7, Netflix, Govt Policy, Saving for kids
Aug 21, 202400:27:16Tap to summarizeYacht sinks:Living the dream. Anchored off Sicily coast in late summer. Storm sinks you in early morning. Dead. 15 people rescued, including 1 year old girl. 6 dead. 5 found in sunken boat. 184ft $35m yacht. 165 ft deep. In tact. Investments and MarketsMarkets booming. year-to-dateS&P: 20%Tech: 18%Div: 14%Bitcoin up 40%! Netflix up 44%. Netflix!All time high. $700. Jake Paul, Tyson, Squid. NFL. Excited for Wyatt Earp.Mag 7:I can’t think of a reason to bet against any of these? Apple: all i useMicrosoft: embedded in every corporation (redwood). Nvidia: Years ahead of competition. Meta: Open source AI. Google: Break it up! Worth more! Amazon: Only place I buy from. Tesla: Robot in my kitchen prepping my coffee and other beverages. (10 years).Ford has said its EV business is on pace to lose about $5 billion this year. In the three-month period ended in June, the automaker lost about $44,000 on every electric vehicle that it sold. is canceling plans for a large electric sport-utility vehicle and expects to take $1.9 billion in related special charges and write-downs, as automakers continue adjusting their EV plans because of softer-than-expected demand.The AI Race:Politics and Govt PolicyPolicies. Friedberg on Price fixing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xA5B6quoahY1:06:35Biggest problem with both parties is excessive spending to please big money backers and constituents. Milton Friedman on spending: Nobel Prize-winning economist: https://x.com/icannot_enough/status/1824411533671080335?s=51&t=YUkdoBz4yNifBaQlQUp3-gWhere is Kamala. Obama at DMC speech. Pretty dynamic. Trump on Theo Von vs Trump on X-spaces with Elon. All in PodcastTalked a lot about drugs and alcohol. Trump has never smoked or drank alcohol. Pretty remarkable. Brotherly advice (me on the otherhand…)Saving for your kids:Probably need $250,000. Rule of 7&7. $7000/yr at 7% over ~18 years. Roth IRA. Brokerage Account. Retirement Strategies:My simplest rule is $5m. Why? Most people can live pretty good on that. 5% return, $250k/year. Age 45 have $1m. Double in 7 and again 7: at 60 you’re at $4m. Very stressful when you don’t have an income. Recommendations:Work your ass off.Hit the gym every day; or at least break a sweat.Dinner with kids.
Transcribe →