Mack and Steve discuss if they find election poll results highly favorable, favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, unfavorable, or highly unfavorable.

References

A straw poll, or vote, according to Merriam-Webster:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/straw%20vote

Fox News may not have handled coverage of the 2012 election as well as they could have:

Folkenflik, David. “Media Circus: Fox Struggles With Obama’s Win?” November 7, 2012. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2012/11/07/164576251/media-circus-fox-struggles-with-obamas-win

How much did Obama win by?

National Archives. “2021 Electoral College Results.” Last reviewed: June 26, 2024. https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2012

Iowa likes its straw poll, even if Mack does not:

Pate, Paul D. “Iowa Secretary of State Shares Final Results of Iowa State Fair Presidential Straw Poll.” August 21, 2023. Iowa.gov. https://sos.iowa.gov/news/2023_08_21.html

How can you tell if a poll is scientific?

Bloustein Center for Survey Research. “Assessing Poll Validity.” Rutgers.edu. https://bcsr.rutgers.edu/assessing-poll-validity/

Learn about a random sample:

Hayes, Adam. “Simple Random Sampling: 6 Basic Steps With Examples.” Updated: August 14, 2024. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/simple-random-sample.asp

The popular vote doesn’t decide the president because we have the electoral college:

USA.gov. “Electoral College.” Updated: August 22, 2024. https://www.usa.gov/electoral-college

Here are the polling groups Mack listed:

Pew Research Center https://www.pewresearch.org/

Gallop https://news.gallup.com/home.aspx

The Harris Poll https://theharrispoll.com/

Quinnipiac University https://poll.qu.edu/

Some context for the Defense Department paying $400 for a hammer in the 80s:

Freedberg, Jr., Sydney J. “The myth of the $600 hammer.” December 7, 1998. Government Executive. https://www.govexec.com/federal-news/1998/12/the-myth-of-the-600-hammer/5271/

Learn about margin of error:

Mercer, Andrew. “5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls.” September 8, 2016. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/

Read about how polls incorrectly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 election:

Mercer, Andrew; Deane, Claudia; and McGeeney, Kyley. “Why 2016 election polls missed their mark.” November 9, 2016. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/

Why it’s not going to be Biden:

Miller, Zeke; Long, Colleen; and Superville, Darlene. “Biden drops out of 2024 race after disastrous debate inflamed age concerns. VP Harris gets his nod.” July 21, 2024. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/biden-drops-out-2024-election-ddffde72838370032bdcff946cfc2ce6#

The Bradley, or Wilder, effect describes a phenomenon where people voted differently than they said they were going to in a poll due to the race of the candidate:

Ballotpedia. “Bradley Effect.” https://ballotpedia.org/Bradley_effect

The Whitman effect describes a similar phenomenon with women candidates. There was a study that found that the Bradley/Wilder effect appears to no longer occur and there is no evidence the Whitman effect ever did. Here is the reference, but please note that the journal article is behind a paywall.

Hopkins, D. J. (2009). No more Wilder effect, never a Whitman effect: When and why polls mislead about Black and female candidates. The Journal of Politics, 71(3), 769–781. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381609090707

About internal polling:

Askarinam, Leah. “In defense of internal polling.” February 7, 2024. ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/538/defense-internal-polling/story?id=107003824

Some problems with polling, including the potential to suppress the vote:

Ordway, Denise-Marie. “‘Horse race’ reporting of elections can harm voters, candidates, news outlets: What the research says.” October 23, 2023. The Journalist’s Resource. https://journalistsresource.org/politics-and-government/horse-race-reporting-election/

How third-party candidates affected the 2016 election:

Jaffe, Alexandra. “By the Numbers: Third-Party Candidates Had an Outsize Impact on the Election.” November 8, 2016. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/third-party-candidates-having-outsize-impact-election-n680921

If Ohio is out, what are the current swing states?

Davis, Jr., Elliot. “7 States That Could Sway the 2024 Presidential Election.” August 27, 2024. U.S. News & World Report. https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/7-swing-states-that-could-decide-the-2024-presidential-election

What’s a protest vote?

Ballotpedia. “Protest vote.” https://ballotpedia.org/Protest_vote

Learn whether it’s misinformation or disinformation:

Bitesize. “Misinformation v disinformation: What’s the difference?” BBC. https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/z3hhvj6

What’s a push poll?

Ballotpedia. “Push polling.” https://ballotpedia.org/Push_polling

So, why did President Biden drop out? One opinion:

Bennet, Brian, and Elliott, Philip. “Why Joe Biden Dropped Out.” July 21, 2024. Time. https://time.com/7001028/why-joe-biden-stepped-down/

In case you somehow missed out on the media’s reporting of President Biden’s debate performance:

Klein, Betsy; Hunt, Kasie; Lee, MJ; Fox, Lauren; and Tausche, Kayla. “Biden’s debate performance sets off alarm bells for Democrats.” June 28, 2024. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics/joe-biden-debate-performance-panic/index.html

Two guys comparing betting markets against what the polls say:

CNN. “Expert: 2024 betting odds more accurate than polling data.” Video. https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/07/13/smr-latest-betting-odds-on-2024.cnn

Who do you think will win MVP in the WNBA this season?

ESPN. “WNBA 2024 awards tracker: MVP, Rookie of Year favorites, more.” August 27, 2024. https://www.espn.com/wnba/story/_/id/40484035/wnba-2024-awards-tracker-mvp-rookie-year-coach-all-league-first-team

Don’t take Mack’s word for it, this is what polling says about how voters feel about education in this election:

Hatfield, Jenn. “Partisan divides over K–12 education in 8 charts.” June 5, 2023. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/06/05/partisan-divides-over-k-12-education-in-8-charts/

Learn about consumer confidence:

The Conference Board. “U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises Slightly in August.” August 27, 2024. https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

Protestors at a Republican event:

Tareen, Sophia; Offenhartz, Jake; Williams, Corey; and Yamat, Rio. “Protestors rally peacefully at GOP convention for abortion and immigrant rights, end to war in Gaza.” July 15, 2024. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/activists-rnc-milwaukee-police-protest-march-4a315dc5f36fc9390898301d508aee20

Protestors at a Democratic event:

Tareen, Sophia; Offenhartz, Jake; Cappelletti, Joey; and Skene, Lea. “Crowds of pro-Palestinian protestors rally and march outside Democratic...