Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (2:35)

Hello, dear listeners, this is an emergency episode coming to you as fast as we can get it to you. This morning war broke out in the Middle East. The US and Israel attacked Iran which invited pretty ferocious counterattacks from Iran. I'm here with my co host, the stalwart oracle of Arabia, Eamon Dean. Basically. Are you dialing in from a war zone, Eamon?

Eamonn Dean (3:08)

I don't want to say like basically it is a war zone, but I would say it's been a very long time. 35 years ago actually when I was a child, when I saw the interception of ballistic missiles over a sky of a city where I live in. So it brings back lots of memories,

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (3:23)

man, because where you are in the uae, you actually witnessed two ballistic missiles. I mean this was as of two hours ago, you sent me a voice note saying you'd witnessed two ballistic missiles from Iran intercepted just outside your balcony. That must have been, well, quite shocking, quite thrilling maybe. But Eamonn, how are you doing? I mean, war has come to the Middle East.

Eamonn Dean (3:45)

Well, it was inevitable. You and I know that. We've been predicting it, you know, over the past several weeks we've been talking about like their reasons and why it was going to happen. And I think it was inevitable. I mean, and we will go into why it was inevitable.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (4:04)

We sure will. We've got lots to, to talk about. We're going to try to bring you dear listeners, the most objective, factual information we can. Six hours into this war. Let's get right into it. Eamon. Earlier this morning, Quite early, about 4 to 8 minute depending on the version you saw, video clip of President Donald Trump was circulated around the Internet in which he said many things, many things frankly, which I think you have said on this program. Maybe he, maybe he listens to conflicted. But one thing he said is our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime. And then he goes on to specify, as does the White House more generally, that military targets alone are the targets. But this is a bit of, you know, this is a bit of communications sort of massaging going on here. Eamonn, what is the true objective, as best as you can tell of this war now, the, the Israeli Operation Lion's Roar and the American Operation Epic Fury. What is the objective Look, I think

Eamonn Dean (5:22)

there is one sentence in President Trump's speech which speaks volumes about what the objective of this conflict is. We had enough of this terror sponsoring regime and we can no longer tolerate it. The reality is the fact that, you know, the patience of the United States, along with Israel and between you and me, secretly, along with the gcc, started to wear thin. And I tell you why, because many people don't understand that the worst thing that the ayatollahs of the Islamic Republic inflicted on the region was always the proxies, you know, Hezbollah, the Houthis, the militias, you know, causing civil wars in Iraq and Yemen and Syria and Lebanon, lasting decades and killing lots of people. So the reality is the fact that along with the attempts, the repeated attempts to create a nuclear device and to become a unstoppable giant with their proxies and flexing their ballistic missile muscles, that's why I call them always the ballistic muscles rather than the ballistic missiles. So, so all of that reached the conclusion that we cannot tolerate this. And especially we live in the post October 7th reality where the Iranian support for proxies has now cost the regional countries like Saudi Arabia, Israel, the UAE and others billions upon billions, billions of dollars when it comes to trade and oil and energy production.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (7:03)

Okay, so, you know, their patients wore thin. They said that that's enough. But then that's not the question. I asked what is the objective? It sounds to me that the objective is regime change.

Eamonn Dean (7:15)

It is embedded, you know, entirely. No one is going to say the phrase, the phrase. And you remember, you know, you and I, we were talking here in this episode on the question of how the IRGC will be in their designation as a terror organization and how, you know, that the American administration is going to focus right now on the terrorism of the regime. Not, you know, basically on, oh, we need a regime change. Let's just talk about the regime as a terror organization, as a terror sponsor state. And we talked about it. I said, there is a new strategy, a new narrative. You will see it.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (7:53)

And then, of course, we saw it. Absolutely. Just as you said would happen within days, that narrative began. It was amazing. A real, you know, confirmation of your insider intelligence, which, you know, a reminder, everyone, if you want a lot of that insider intelligence, you should subscribe to the conflicted community right away. Especially now that what might be quite a lengthy war has broken out in the Middle East. It could be lengthy. I mean, honestly, Eamonn, I think at the very least we're talking like a week, two weeks of airstrikes we're talking a lot of war here because Iran has already proved itself extremely willing. For them, this is existential. And they are willing to defend themselves. I mean, the regime. But even so, the language coming out of Israel and even the White House, it's not just about terrorism. It is saying to the people of Iran, we are going to degrade the regime. We are going to degrade the irgc, we are going to degrade the Supreme Leader's political apparatus to enable you, to strengthen you so that you can rise up and overthrow the regime.

Eamonn Dean (9:00)

Exactly. I mean, there is no question in my mind that regime change and bringing down the Ayatollahs and the Ayatollah's structure of governance is the ultimate objective of this campaign. No matter what this campaign, there is definitely some overt and covert objectives here. So the overt objective is to get rid of the nuclear program, maybe degrade their ballistic missile program. That's the overt objective. That's what we are hearing loud and clear from the mouths of the strategists and decision makers in D.C. and in Israel. However, there is a covert objective here which is to bring down the apparatus of the Ayatollah of the Walaat Al Faqih of the terror that has gripped Iran for the past 47 years and get rid of it. Now, many people like I are comparing, you know, the events of what we are seeing unfolding right now. And it's only been six hours. Goodness, six hours. And it's already involving nine nations. Can you believe it? Nine nations.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (10:17)

Well, I can believe it. You said we were like, it was like the first World War situation was being set up there in the Middle east and maybe something like that is happening in real time.

Eamonn Dean (10:26)

Exactly. I mean, we didn't even start yet. There's only six hours and it's already, you know, Bahrain, my home country, been attacked and attacked really hard. Kuwait has been attacked. Riyadh has been attacked. Qatar has been attacked several times. And now of course, Dubai and Abu Dhabi, you know, Dubai, where I live.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (10:47)

Here's the thing though.

Eamonn Dean (10:48)

And add Jordan, Jordan and Israel also. So, and add to the fact that Jordan and Israel and the United States, Iran are all involved. That's nine nations.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (10:57)

But one thing I want confirmation on. When you say Bahrain has been attacked, all these other GCC states and Jordan have all been attacked, do you mean that American assets in those countries have been attacked? Or are you saying civilian infrastructure? Or the actual, let's say sovereign land of those countries has been directly attacked, not just US Bases, not just US

Eamonn Dean (11:19)

Bases, because why, even if you target the ballistic missiles, if you program the ballistic missiles to go on the coordinate of American bases there, you take a 50, 50 risk of that missile hitting a civilian area. Already a civilian died today in Abu Dhabi in the uae. And you know, the fall was in a civilian area in Abu Dhabi. There is Qatar also. In Doha, a civilian area has been hit and in Kuwait, a civilian area has been hit. So there is no question about it in my mind basically that you know, when you hit, when you say already the foreign Minister of Iran, you know, the one that like, I mean, many European girls on the left, you know, say he's handsome. Can you believe it? Can you believe it? I read these comments.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (12:06)

He's been an active participant in the recent round of nuclear deal talks with the US mediated through Oman.

Eamonn Dean (12:14)

Exactly. So listen to this Dove piece. So what is he saying when he was calling the GCC foreign ministers just an hour ago, telling them, look, we are not targeting you really, we're just targeting the American, you know, presence, you know, in your countries. They were really targeting you. I mean, come on, I mean, you are targeting us. But nonetheless, he then changed the tone and he said, I would like you to know that unless the United States and Israel end this conflict within 24 hours, we will not just only blockade the Straits of Hormuz, we will also attack all oil production facilities in the region.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (13:05)

Well, that's doubling down. That's really saying. But you know, Eamonn, this is an existential threat to them. Exactly. The regime, it's gonna win or lose. Now, I don't think there's any middle ground. I mean, one thing I'd like to do, Eamon, as we always try to do unconflicted, is just bring a little bit of historical context to bear. And I've got a question for you. Rather a sort of strategic specialist question for you. So everyone knows about the 12 Day War last June, but maybe people have forgotten precisely what preceded that. So on the 1st of April 2024, it's about two years ago, Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus, targeting Hezbollah operatives there, killing some Iranian operatives. This was all part of its wider Gaza war campaign. On 13 April 2024, Iran launched Operation True Promise, in which it launched ballistic missiles at Israel for the first time. Flash forward about six months. And in retaliation for Israeli assassinations of Hezbollah, Hamas and Iranian regime leaders and operatives, including in Tehran the previous month, on the 1st of October 2024, Iran launched Operation True Promise 2. Once again, targeting Israel with ballistic missiles. My question for you, Eamon, in retrospect, was this a strategic miscalculation by the Iranian regime by attacking Israel in this way back then, did the regime disclose its military capabilities and infrastructure, its military network, to its enemies in a way that ultimately empowered them to attack in the way that they have?

Eamonn Dean (14:52)

Of course, there's no question about it. At the end of the day, they have now demonstrated not only to the Israeli public, but to American and European decision makers that the Israelis were not exaggerating when they were saying that Iran do possess sophisticated ballistic missiles capability with the capability to inflict real damage on Israel. But these also can reach European countries such as Cyprus, Greece, Bulgaria, Croatia, even as far as southern Italy. So from the point of view of the Israelis, they of course exaggerated the threat to others, but they were saying, look, we were not exaggerating the threat to ourselves. And this is when they used the attacks not only as a tool to convince other countries of the Iranian danger, but also to study the tactics of the Iranian military, especially the irgc, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, to see how they will fire from where they fire, where are their stockpiles and all of these things.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (16:04)

And I imagine that by firing their ballistic missiles, heat signatures, information like that was disclosed to Israel, to America, to other intelligence gathering, and they suddenly realized, oh, there's a ballistic missile site, there's a ballistic missile site which would have allowed them in the 12 Day War to do what they could to devastate that capability. Clearly, they did not devastate the capability completely. Iran remains armed and dangerous and certainly willing to defend itself. Now, let's flash forward to very recently in terms of the historical context, Eamonn, and talk about the final round of nuclear deal negotiations that ended on Thursday. So these resumed in early February in Geneva, mediated by Oman. The latest round, as I say, ended on Thursday, 26 February. There was no agreement on any of the things that America was ultimately expecting Iran to agree to, although I suppose we can all say now they knew that they would never agree to them because it was basically tantamount to surrender. The regime was basically being told, you have to surrender your proxies, your ballistic missiles, your nuclear program, basically your power to us. All the while, America was getting ready to launch this war. Nonetheless, yesterday, very late Yesterday in the UK time, on 27 February, Oman's mediator claimed that there had been a, quote, major breakthrough, claiming that Tehran had agreed not to stockpile enriched uranium and so on. Now, immediately people were accusing this Omani official of trying to influence politics. Now, Oman has played an interesting role in this, and as you pointed out, it remains the only GCC country as of this morning, that has not been attacked by Iran.

Eamonn Dean (17:49)

Well, I tell you why, because first of all, we have to understand what these negotiations were about. You know, first of all, when President Trump decided that he will strike Iran, he will go to war against Iran, he was convinced by both the Israelis and the Saudis not to do so because of the lack of American military assets in the region. So before you go to war, build the assets, but in the meantime, while you are building the assets, President Trump wanted to gain legitimacy in the eyes of the US Congress and the US Public opinion, as well as the European, both decision maker and public opinion. And so he decided, let's go to negotiations and lay down our demands at the beginning in order for the Iranian regime to avoid a strike. In mid January, they talked to mbs. You remember, we talked about it before in a podcast, and they offered that they will repatriate all the 411kg of highly enriched uranium to Russia. And they said, we will do it. However, Iran then later engaged in one of the worst practices in international diplomacy, which is bait and switch. So you offer something tangible and then once you sit on the table, ah, well, you know what, I changed my mind. I have another idea. So they backtracked from the idea of repatriating that amount of highly enriched uranium, which is enough just for the listener to understand. 411 kilograms of highly enriched uranium is enough to build 25 nuclear bombs. 25 nuclear bombs. And each bomb is capable of being 40 times bigger than Hiroshima. So this is not a small amount. So they said that they are willing, you know, not to repatriate it anymore, but to dilute it. Let's dilute it. You know, so look, I'm an alcoholic, you know, I know I'm not supposed to keep, you know, vodka at home. So you know what? Like, you know, basically, I'm going to dilute the one bottle of vodka I have with three bottles of orange juice and let's have a screwdriver. So really, that's what they were suggesting.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (20:05)

That's one way of trying to screw the Americans over.

Eamonn Dean (20:08)

Exactly, exactly. That's how they were trying to screw the America. And Trump understood what was taking place, because what is down blended, as they call it in the scientific term, down blended, highly enriched uranium can still be unblended by putting it through the process of centrifuging. And you, you know, Enriching again, it

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (20:32)

was the old playbook. Iran was buying time for its nuclear program. But what about all the stuff you told us about the irgc, you know, telling the Iranian negotiators, look, the proxies, the ballistic missiles, that's on us. We refuse to budge on that. And then the game playing that the IRGC was manufacturing about promising this or that, as long as all sanctions were lifted on Iran, you know, they were not being really realistic negotiators.

Eamonn Dean (21:02)

No, they were not realistic negotiators. And they were saying, look, we are going to maintain our proxies. They call them regional allies to give them legitimacy even though they are nothing but terrorist organizations. All of them, Al Houthis, the Hamas, Hezbollah and others. And also the same time they were saying, we can't stop our ballistic missile program. What we can do, because there are four categories of ballistic missiles. There is the srbm, short range ballistic missile. There is the mrb, which is the medium range ballistic missiles. These, Iran have abundance of them, tens of thousands of the SRBMs which are now being used to attack where I live and where I come from, Bahrain, Saudi and UAE. But also they have thousands of the MRBMs which they are using to attack Israel. And these are up to two and a half thousand kilometers. The Americans, however, noticed that the Iranians were developing real, and this is real intel developing. And they went to a stage where they can fire IRBMs. Intermediate, basically intermediate range ballistic missiles. Intermediate range ballistic missiles, IRBM. And that could reach 5,500 kilometers. Another word like, I mean from anywhere in Iran. They can hit anywhere, all the way to Paris. You know, let's put it this way. However, also There are the ICBMs or the Intercontinental ballistic missiles. And they were working on that in conjunction with North Korean engineers. So that is the worry that the Americans had. Is that, okay, you know what? You know, listen here. You need to change your behavior. If you give up these ballistic missiles and if you give up the nuclear program and if you give up the regional proxies, you know what we're going to give you? Yes, tangible, real lifting of the sanctions and readmission into the global markets and the energy markets and the investment capital markets, everything will be open for you, your people. Basically, we praise you to the hilt for your wisdom and foresight and all of that. But please, let's do that. However, they were talking about what we call in Arabic, you know, the Byzantine, you know, debate the Byzantine argument, how many angels can stand, you know, at the tip of a Needle, you know, that kind of extreme, you know, petty theological debate, like in a Byzantine, suddenly

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (23:33)

want to defend the Byzantines who were not debating those things. It was the Western Christians who were debating those things. But anyway, I'll let that slide now. Eamon. Eamon, you said the point of these negotiations.

Eamonn Dean (23:44)

Mea culpa, mea culpa.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (23:45)

You said the point of these negotiations, from the point of view of Trump, was to buy some legitimacy for a war should it come about. Legitimacy in Congress, legitimacy with allies, legitimacy with the international community. Do you think he succeeded in that? Based on what I'm seeing online now, there's a lot of people accusing the United States and certainly Israel of launching yet another illegal war, a war that was not debated in Congress, hardly mentioned in Congress, was not debated in the U.N. nothing like that. Those old institutions of international law and legitimacy have been completely bypassed.

Eamonn Dean (24:24)

I understand their point of view. There is no question in my mind that many people have good intentions. The problem is, as I know and you know and through our experiences, we know that the path to hell is paved with good intentions and that just because you see a snake that is wounded, it doesn't mean the snake, because of his vulnerability now is a poor little pet that won't sting you one day. And the Middle east has been stung so much by the irgc. You know how many bombings happened in Saudi Arabia, in Bahrain, in Kuwait. You know how many hijacking of airplanes, how many, look at the 7th of October, you know, basically, and what, you know, the IRGC did when they shipped Hamas with the entirety of the population of Gaza to go for a suicide mission. And look what they did to Lebanon, a very beautiful country. I'm half Lebanese. At the end of the day. This is my mother's homeland. And they ruined it down to the core with their zealot, fanatical fundamentalism and militancy. They ruined it. And then look at Syria and look at Yemen, two innocent countries that has been plunged into deep civil wars because of Iran's backing of the evil people in these countries. And so at the end of the day, forget all political, diplomatic, geostrategic, socioeconomic debates. At the end of the day, there is a God, there is a karma, and what goes around comes around. And if you inflict, as the organization IRGC and as Ayatollah, if you inflict all of these hardships on other people in the name basically of your faith, in the name of your ideology, in the name of your fundamentalism, it will come back and bite you. And that's the law of the world.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (26:18)

That's true. Although God is real. Absolutely. But so are international politics. And it's equally the case that over the last several decades, Iran has successfully positioned itself amongst a wide cross section of global politics opinions.

Eamonn Dean (26:39)

Just to let you know, Thomas, as we speak, I'm seeing here on the screen that my country Bahrain has been hit. Fifth time. This is the fifth wave of attack on Bahrain and it's the seventh attack on Kuwait as I'm seeing it right now on the screen.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (26:57)

Well, listen, Eamon, let's move on to the actual war then. So my understanding is early this morning, it began with cyber attacks, probably launched by Israel. Iran's mobile phone networks were suddenly brought down. Its Internet was cut off. Top news sites in Iran were hacked. Even this made me laugh. I don't know if it's true. It looked pretty true. It seems that even Iran's official prayer app was hacked and normal text was replaced with Farsi messages encouraging Iranians to resist and military personnel to defect. So that's how it started. I mean, that's pretty ingenious. Israeli strikes focused on IRGC and top political targets. And then very soon after, America came in to attack more military ballistic missile targets, if I'm not mistaken. The first objective, of course, to neutralize Iran's ability to counter strike. How successful can we say that was, though, Eamon? Because Iran is certainly striking back.

Eamonn Dean (28:07)

There is no way you can subdue a nation like Iran, which I told you, possess thousands of MRBMs and tens of thousands of SRBMs. There is no way you can subdue them from the first day, second day, third day, fourth day. You need to make them even spend these missiles and try to identify where they are firing from, where they are being moved from. The attack started really with an attack on the presidential compound, the Ayatollah's compound, Supreme Leader himself, and the Ministry of Intelligence, Ministry of Defense, and the most important, the Revolutionary Court, in a very,

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (28:51)

very symbolic, very symbolic. In fact, the head of the judiciary in Iran was assassinated in one of those attacks. He died. This is Gholam Hossein Mostigi Mos Seni Ejay. And this would be the man who recently oversaw the prosecution of many, many thousands of protesters, sending many thousands of them to their deaths.

Eamonn Dean (29:12)

Exactly. Poetic. And I told you, karma, at the end of the day, I mean, this regime did not shy away from waging war against other people in the Middle East. It waged war against its own people, their own people. So the first attack was against The Revolutionary Court. The second one was against, you know, the Ministry of Intelligence or it's called Ittalaat. The building was destroyed and the head of intelligence in the country was killed, which is Ismail Khatibzad. And then of course, they attacked the Ministry of Defense, killing Amir Khatami, I think, like.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (29:50)

Yes, Amir Hatami, the Defense Minister. That's right.

Eamonn Dean (29:53)

And he was killed.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (29:54)

He was killed.

Eamonn Dean (29:55)

And then they attacked the headquarters of the National Security of the country, led by Ali Shamkhan, the famous Biden, very

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (30:05)

important figure in Iranian history. Recent history.

Eamonn Dean (30:08)

Exactly. And I talked about him so much on the show.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (30:12)

He's also dead.

Eamonn Dean (30:13)

Yes, he's dead.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (30:14)

But what about the Supreme Leader himself, Ayman, you say they attacked his compound. Did they get him?

Eamonn Dean (30:19)

No, he was. According to the official news, he was escorted to safety. However, the President is unaccounted for. So they don't know where President Masoud Pazashkian is. You know, he's maybe buried under the rubble or something like that. So 80% he's dead. The head of the IRGC also has been killed. You know, Pakpour, he's dead. So it was successful in eliminating many of their leaders. And the way they are attacking back at GCC countries and in Jordan and Israel, it shows that they are absolutely at the in a rage because they know that the attack wasn't just a nuclear site or the IRGC only or the missiles. It was the regime itself.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (31:07)

It also might be a sign that cooler heads have been assassinated and lowered. You know, leaders lower down who may be less savvy, less able to be strategic, are now in charge and they're saying, bomb them, bomb them, bomb them.

Eamonn Dean (31:19)

Exactly. But then this is exactly how they write their own death certificates. The whole thing here is the regime need to understand it is over because now the United States and Israel are not going to back down. And in fact, if the regime foolishly, in the words of their rather foreign minister, who appears fuzzy and teddy and everything and nice and cute, like, I mean, on Western media, when he is actually calling, like a mafia boss calling, you know, the Foreign minister of the DCC and telling them, unless if the war stops in 24 hours, I'm going to block the Hormuz Strait where your trade go through and your energy exports go through, and I'm going to even to attack your oil production facilities and refineries. I mean, within 24 hours. And it's like, okay, that shows the gangster mentality they have. It's not like he is calling to say, look, how about we ask you in the name of our neighborly, brotherly, Islamic whatever, like basically nonsense you always believe in. How about you intercede on our behalf with the Americans and the Israelis to end this war in a resolution that finally achieve what everyone wants, a closure on the nuclear chapter and a closure on the, you know, regional terror and let's all live, you know, happily ever after. But no, he decided, you know what? I just maybe lost my president. I just lost, you know, my Minister of Intelligence. I just lost the head of the judiciary who is, by the way, there are five people ruling Iran under the, you know, the Ayatollah. There are five. They are called the Council of Five. The head of the irgc, Pakhpur, Dead. The head of the judiciary, Dead. Dead. The head of the Supreme Council for National Defense, which is Shabbat Shamkhani, dead. Yeah. Only two left here. One is the head of the national, you know, security. Not national defense, national security. Ali Larajani and Mujtab Al Khamenei, you know, the son of the Ayatollah.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (33:34)

Interesting.

Eamonn Dean (33:34)

So out of the five people who are ruling Iran, you know, three are dead. And so Arakchi, the Foreign minister must be absolutely livid when he was talking to the Foreign Minister, telling them, look, we are not hating your countries, we're hating only the American presence. However, by tomorrow, same time, you will be a target. All of your economic interests will be a target. That's the mentality that has been revealed now and brought to the surface by the American and Israeli action. And that could threaten to actually make the war not only a joint Israeli American effort, it could become also a GCC effort.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (34:12)

We'll talk about this towards the end of the episode already though, the Saudi Foreign Ministry released a statement making it very clear that it was extremely willing to join this war now in defense of the gcc. Exactly. In fact, it even, I think very significantly, very symbolically listed the UAE first in its list of brother states that have been attacked, raising the question of whether this war is going to supercharge moves towards a rapprochement between Saudi and the uae. We'll get to that at the end. You said that Israel and America, so they lopped off many heads of the many headed dragon of the regime. But I also hear reports of explosions heard across the country in Isfahan, in Gum, in loristan, in Kermanshah, etc. Apparently IRGC bases have been attacked and thousands of IRGC soldiers have been killed. Is this true? If so, it follows what President Trump said earlier today, calling on IRGC soldiers to, quote, lay down your weapons or face certain death. Is this true? Or have IRGC bases been attacked and have thousands of IRGC soldiers been killed?

Eamonn Dean (35:17)

Hundreds of IRGC locations has been attacked by no less than 300 Tomahawk missiles today. That's the minimum I know about, 300 Tomahawk missiles. If you remember. Again, on this episode on Conflicted, we talked about how the Trump administration is going to use the IRGC as the bogeyman, as the entity that has now declared itself as a state within a state that controls 40% of the Iranian economy, and that it was always an obstacle towards peace, towards modernity, towards moving beyond ideology into pragmatism. It was always the obstacle. And so for the President of the United States to say, I am targeting the irgc, I want them to lay down their arms, because that's the narrative. I knew. I knew. I actually, you know, called you. I was in Athens at the time. I called you and I said to you, thomas, this is the narrative is being cooked right now. You know, you and I need to talk about it. And then we talked about it, and then we said, okay, fine, let's put it in the podcast. Let's put it out for the people to understand that this is the narrative is being cooked. And it wasn't a narrative that is imposed. It was just something that was organic there, and the decision makers in certain capitals decided to take advantage of it. And that's why we are seeing a degradation of the irgc to guarantee. Because what happened is the Iranian leadership decided, out of stupidity or lack of foresight, to mobilize the IRGC into all of these camps and bases in order for them to be ready to mobilize into the cities should there be an uprising. But then they became sitting ducks. Absolutely sitting ducks. Maybe I should change the D into F in A, basically in the word ducks.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (37:15)

Oh, dear.

Eamonn Dean (37:16)

Because they were sitting ducks, you know,

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (37:18)

and with an F, of course, the loss of life, people being killed in war is sad. Although, you know, we have to point out that it would have mainly been IRGC and besiege operatives in the last three months who were, especially in January, who were primarily responsible for that unholy slaughter of. Of civilians inside Iran protesting their government. So, you know, as you say, karma, whatever, it's sad. War is terrible. And I wouldn't have wanted to be an IRGC soldier this morning. But they did have blood on their hands.

Eamonn Dean (37:51)

Remember, wars do not decide who is right. They decide who's left.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (38:01)

That's very good. Now Eamon, what about Iran's naval assets? There are reports of attacks, American and Israeli attacks targeting positions or Iranian locations across its Arabian Persian Gulf coast. Bushehr has been attacked. This is a major port on the Persian, on the Arabian Gulf. You know, I want to do balance to both sides of this war here.

Eamonn Dean (38:26)

Exactly, exactly. At the end of the day I am one third Persian. So I am always confused about like the Arabian Gulf. The Persian Gulf, like, you know, so I would call it the Persianate Arab Gulf.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (38:37)

But okay, so I also understand that there have been massive attacks on the Persianate Arab Gulf near the Hormuz Strait, in Bandar Abbas, in Harj island and other places. So what about targeting Iran's naval assets and especially the IRGC's naval assets, those notorious small boats that could be very lethal when required.

Eamonn Dean (38:58)

My understanding today that some of the attacks were targeted actually on these particular assets. And I'll give you what assets that been targeted. So in Bushar they targeted a lot of the ballistic missiles that were actually pointing at Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. And also they were targeting a small dockyard which contained dozens of speedboats designed to attack oil rigs in the Gulf. So that's the first target. The second target is Bandra Abbas. Of course. Bandra Abbas is the largest port in all of Iran, commercial. But Also it has 40% of it is controlled by the IRGC and has military elements. And they have also these speedboats and the many submarines, the Radir class submarines and Fateh class which is the midsize submarines and the Kilo class, you know, the Russian ones which is designed for mining and in other words like basically you know, to lay mines, you know, across the Hormones Strait region as well as to attack the shipping. They have been attacked today and it's not clear what are the losses so far but I understand from sources is that there has been at least, at least three submarines of the mini ones that has been destroyed and one Fateh submarine also has been destroyed. And also they were attacking facilities in Chabahar which were containing these anti ship cruise missiles with a range of 280km. So they were attacked too and they were successfully destroyed. But however, still the ability of the IRGC and the Iranian regime to blockade the Strait of Hormuz is still there. It's been a little bit degraded. But it means that by accelerating the schedule to blockade the Strait of Hormuz in that phone call between the Iranian Foreign Minister to the GCC foreign ministers when he told them that, you know, within 24 hours you know we're going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, because if they wait another 48 hours, there will be no more assets through which they can blockade the threat of Hormuz. So either now or never.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (41:02)

Okay, so you've mentioned Iran's counterattacks, especially insofar as the GCC has been targeted. Of course you mentioned Jordan. They've been targeted. Kataib, Hezbollah in Iraq. So this is the most powerful Iran aligned militia in Iraq. It has announced that it will soon be attacking American bases in Iraq. What is Iran's basic strategy? I would assume if I was in the regime, I would have to escalate. To de. Escalate, Iran now has to at least try to draw enough blood, especially American blood, to make America feel the pain of this war, to make it politically costly for Trump to sustain, sustain this war in any kind of long war. I mean, I'm not sure actually Iran might be able to sustain a longer war than America, frankly, for all sorts of reasons. But the faster they can make America feel the pain, the better for them. Do you think that's really all they have at their disposal? That can be military pain, it can be economic pain by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, by attacking oil installations, et cetera.

Eamonn Dean (42:11)

I do believe that the schedule will be like this from tomorrow, which is Sunday, the 1st of March. From tomorrow, we will start to see attempts to blockade the strait formats. That's the first thing. And from tomorrow night into Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, they want to do it like when the markets basically are open. Most likely they will start attacking Saudi, Kuwaiti, Bahraini, Emirati shipping. And also either oil shipping is like tankers or the oil refineries and the oil production facilities to create that shock in the market. Because they believe, mistakenly, that President Trump cared a lot about basically what's gonna happen when it comes to oil. They don't understand that one of the things President Trump did is that he secured Venezuelan oil precisely in order to withstand the shocks that might happen. He already brought 50 million, 50 million barrels of oil. To add it to the 580 million barrels of oil that are in the strategic reserves right now in the US which is at their highest ever. In order to withstand any shock and to keep releasing more and more into the market. The Saudis also, and the Emiratis and other countries have taken steps towards compensating for any loss of Kuwaiti and Iraqi and Iranian oil that will be lost to the market. So they are taking steps to do that. Yes, the oil will rise above 120, possibly. But it will be seasonal. It will be momentarily until the production levels grow. And of course, for President Trump, one of his biggest constituencies in the United States is the fracking community. So reward them with all of this like bonanza for a short while will be good for a certain sector of the economy in the United States.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (44:06)

High energy prices are only bad for some people, not for everyone.

Eamonn Dean (44:10)

Not for everyone, exactly. And it will be temporary anyway. That's the first thing. The second thing is that they will trigger, of course, the international commerce disruption. The Houthis already announced that they are going to blockade the Red Sea against all shipping. So no shipping should actually go through Bab El Mandeb Strait. So the Red Sea is closed for business, hurrah. But that was expected and there will be steps taken to remedy that. In other words, the Houthis will be hitting, if they hit any shipping or if they take any ship as hostage or if they hijack any ship. The other thing also they can trigger is they can activate sleeper cells all over the world to carry out terror attacks against nightclubs frequented by American soldiers or by the Israeli tourists. They will go after hotels that are frequented also by American tourists and Israeli tourists. We will see that. And we could see that basically happening at any time over the next week if the war lasts the fifth or the sixth day. So we will see all of these things triggered. But once the regime fall, really, you know, and there is nothing left of it, all of these measures will also die with it because cut off the head of the snake and the rest of the snake will no longer move. That's why we have to be in this until the end. Now we have done it. And I call on people like, you know, all around the world, like, look, you started this. Yes, there will be consequences, but you know what? Short term pain for the long term gain of finally the beautiful people of Iran, they get what they deserve for a nation that have two and a half thousand years of history and civilization. And finally they get a government that fitting of their culture and their intelligence and their resilience and their amazing, amazing personality.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (45:57)

Okay, it seems like the GCC states are aligned with what you've said. Saudi Arabia today basically indicating there is no going back. This war is final. It must end with the regime ending. I mean, there's just no way that we can keep going with this regime in power. The Saudi National Guard, the government says is ready to deploy to Bahrain and Kuwait if necessary to defend the gcc. I think there are discussions going on to invoke the GCC Security Mutual Defense Charter as part of the GCC's charter so that they are all aligned in that way. Will these attacks, do you think, help speed up rapprochement between the UAE and Saudi Arabia? Eamon?

Eamonn Dean (46:46)

It's already happening.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (46:47)

Yeah. I mean, ultimately you're Arabs, aren't you? And there's nothing better to get Arabs who have been informed fighting to get together and get over their differences than having an external enemy.

Eamonn Dean (46:57)

Exactly. Today, when the Saudi Foreign Ministry, before they were attacked, before they were attacked by ballistic missiles, the first countries to be attacked were Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and uae and then Jordan, of course. So as soon as they. And of course, the Foreign Ministry of Saudi Arabia, they put out that statement of solidarity with all of these countries and then they were hit. But before they were hit, they put out that statement. And in that statement, the first country, the first country mentioned that they are in solidarity with was the United Arab Emirates. They said, basically, we are standing in absolute solidarity with our sisterly nations of the United Arab Emirates. And then after that, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan. But they put the UAE ahead of everyone else. It's very clear now that the two sides are putting away their differences and they are going to focus on what's going to happen. In my opinion, as soon as the UAE joined the effort, joined the war because of an attack that is more outrageous than we are seeing today. The first objective they will do is that they will liberate their three islands, the three islands that are always in dispute and which the IRGC has used, you know, considerably as launching bases for maritime operations for the IRGC to harass international shipping in the Gulf. Finally, this nightmare will be over. Also, at the same time, we will see that the Saudis and the Qataris and the Bahrainis, they will all, lakina, I mean, applaud this effort. We could see Iraqi militias harassing Kuwait on their border. And this could happen. And that's why we could see this conflict involving nation number 10, which is Iraq. And already, already as we speak, a ballistic missile has fallen on Syria, as we speak. But the ballistic missile fell, ironically, on the only separatist enclave remaining in Syria, which is the Druze enclave of Sueda.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (49:05)

Oh, gosh, they can't catch a break at all.

Eamonn Dean (49:08)

Exactly. You know, and so, but, you know, at the end of the day, even Syria has been hit. And we could see nation number. This will be nation number 11. Nation number 12 will most likely be Lebanon, which will be brought because Hezbollah said we will only intervene if we feel that the regime in Iran is fighting for its existence. Well, they are fighting for their existence. They announced today that the war is an existential war. And so I'm already seeing deployment and mobilization among Hezbollah members in Lebanon. God help US nations.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (49:41)

The Lebanese government must know that that's very likely because the President was it, or the prime minister basically signaled his neutrality today that he doesn't want to get involved because he knows he's going to be in the firing line or Lebanon will be.

Eamonn Dean (49:52)

It's not up to him. It's up to Hezbollah. Unfortunately, it's up to the people with the guns. Nation number 13, which is unlucky 13, will be Yemen, as usual. By the Houthis joining the conflict and blockading the straits of Bab el Mandab and with it the shipping in the Red Sea, which could actually invite Egypt into the fray because Egypt is not going to stand idle without any revenue whatsoever from the Suez Canal. The Suez canal generate about $10 billion a year. $10 billion that they desperately need because of their currency. Because their currency will tank below 50 Egyptian pounds per dollar. If the Houthis close the straits of Bab el Mandab and the Red Sea for shipping, then all of this 10 billion will dry away. No, they will not allow that lac. And they will most likely send their navy down there to help with the clearing, which means it will be nation number 14. So it's an echo of 1914. It's an echo of 14 nations basically being involved in this conflict. But, yeah, God help us, it's a mini world war in the Middle East.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (51:02)

It's a regional war. And I think this is a good place to bring this emergency episode of conflicted to an end. I wanted to end just gesturing towards the geopolitical perspective. You've laid it out, just how wide ranging this conflict will soon become. And I would like to suggest that all of this should push back against an idea that is widespread in the media, on the Internet, that all of this is simply Israel the tail wagging the American dog, as if Israel is in charge of all of this and that there's really no strategic reasons whatsoever for anyone except for Israel to seek to change the situation with the Iranian regime. I just think this is so clearly idiotic. As you pointed out, the Venezuela operation back in January was also very much about Iran. People in general. Many people. Many of these are loud people on the Internet. They have a wrong view of the Middle East. The vast majority of the states in the region are strong U.S. allies. Iran is the outlier, not Israel, all of those states you just mentioned that will likely be embroiled in this war. The GCC states Jordan, Egypt, Yemen. To the extent that a legitimate Yemeni government exists, even people will be surprised to hear Iraq, to a much larger degree than people know, are American allies. To some degree or another, they are all together in removing Iran from a Russia, Chinese, anti American axis. And this is where I'd like to end this episode, that larger geostrategic perspective. All of this, if I'm not mistaken, Eamonn, is part of the US's strategy of wresting as much control away from the China, Russia axis. In this new era of multipolarity, everything is there on the globe to play for. And America is shoring up its patch with its network of alliances. And this Iranian action is part of that. Venezuela was part of that. Even as crazy as it was, Greenland was part of that. That's what's going on. And people need to understand that this anti Israel fever dream, that Israel is the only real state with agency in the region, is total nonsense. That's my view.

Eamonn Dean (53:36)

Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. Absolutely. This is why we have this Israel derangement syndrome, the Trump derangement syndrome, the Saudi derangement syndrome, the UAE derangement syndrome. This needs to end because at the end of the day, which country did not mind its own business in the region for 47 years? That was Iran. Which country has in its own constitution, and the seventh clause of the constitution of Iran is that it is the duty of the Iranian Republic, Islamic Republic, basically, to export the Islamic revolution to other countries in the region. It destabilized Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and it always sought to convert Shia minorities in the region into a fifth column to serve its expansionist policies. It caused civil wars that in Yemen and Syria alone that caused the deaths of 2 million people and the displacement of 25 million others. I think as Jesus said in the Bible, from their fruits, you know them. And so what fruits Iran gave to the region?

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (54:43)

Well, there we go. This has been an emergency episode of Conflicted. Literally a war broke out six hours ago, seven hours ago, in fact. Now that we're wrapping this up, we

Eamonn Dean (54:52)

are in the seven hours.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (54:53)

Yeah, yeah. So, Eamonn, thank you for giving us your expertise and you're literally your eyewitness experience now, because you know the UAE has been attacked and you're there. You saw it with your own eyes. We, all of us at conflicted, the dear listeners, the dearest listeners, and honestly become a dearest listener. Dear listeners, become a dearest listener and subscribe to the conflicted community right away. We need your support, but Amen. All of us do wish you our best. We hope you remain safe. We hope that the Middle east emerges as soon as possible from this period of conflict better, more peaceful, more stable and more prosperous. That is our prayer for the Middle East.

Eamonn Dean (55:34)

Amen, brother. Amen.

Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (55:35)

Okay, take care, everyone.

Eamonn Dean (55:37)

Take care, everyone. Thank you so much. Bye.

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Thomas (Conflicted Podcast Host) (56:14)

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