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- [00:00]
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Eamonn
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Thomas Small
Mintmob hello dear listeners. Welcome back to Conflicted Amen. Hello there. How are you doing?
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Eamonn
I'm fine, dear Thomas, I'm fine. I can tell you that the sun is shining, the birds are singing outside my balcony. All is well. The beach is inviting, the temperatures are very nice. But the temperatures are rising. Not only in terms of beach kind of temperatures, but also the political temperature themselves are rising.
- [02:28]
Thomas Small
Well Eamon, I find myself today in the beautiful countryside of East Sussex where I've come to spend a few days with some good friends. So the sun is shining in Sussex, the birds are singing outside my window. And the travails of the Middle east feel very far away. The bluebells are out, there's an orchard, the apple blossoms are coming out. And I think, why do I have to turn my attention to the miserable east yet again?
- [02:57]
Eamonn
Indeed.
- [02:58]
Thomas Small
Especially as Eamon, you know, it's day 13 of the ceasefire. It's April 20th, obviously. A few important birthdays on April 20th. Adolf Hitler, Bob Marley, you know, and of course you. Yours truly, Thomas Small. It's my birthday, so even less do I want to be turning my attention to the miserable East.
- [03:20]
Eamonn
Happy birthday, man. Happy birthday.
- [03:22]
Thomas Small
Thank you.
- [03:22]
Eamonn
You look so. So old.
- [03:28]
Thomas Small
This is. Dear listeners, you see, this is my friend over here. This is the treatment I get. Well, goodness.
- [03:37]
Eamonn
I told you many times, just trim the beard, man. You would.
- [03:40]
Thomas Small
I like trim the beard. What do you want me to do? I like it. I can't help it. I just think, you know, there's something about it. Anyway, let's not talk about this. Let's talk about what really matters. You are going to tell us all about the last 72 hours in the Middle east with the Iran war. Messaging from the White House, messaging from the Foreign Ministry in Iran, messaging from the IRGC in Iran, messaging from the Gulf, messaging from the Pakistanis. Everyone's losing their minds. I hope you can make things a bit clearer for us. Let's get right into it. So, Eamonn, as I say, it's day 13 of the ceasefire. We are recording this on the 20th of April, 2026. It is 11:45am in the UK as I speak. It's important these days that we make it clear when we're recording because things change all the time.
- [04:38]
Eamonn
Indeed.
- [04:39]
Thomas Small
So what's going on? The ceasefire holds. It is in place barely so far. There is no agreement to extend it. Talks are sort of still, I guess, vaguely planned for tomorrow, the 21st and Wednesday, the 22nd of April. I don't know. Iran says they're not attending. The United States says that they've got a delegation ready to talk. The Iranians have some conditions for talks. What's going on with these talks in Islamabad, Ayman?
- [05:12]
Eamonn
You know what, Thomas? The ceasefire has been far more exhausting, absolutely exhausting, than the war itself. During the war, you know what you're getting. But the ceasefire has been far more exhausting to people like me in the geopolitical and geostrategic space. I mean, it's really exhausting following what's happening. So let me summarize the last three days for you, because we already covered the days before that in previous episodes. Dear listeners, don't be lazy, go and listen to them. No, the reality is that the Americans are supposed to attend a Pakistani brokered talks in Islamabad. Islamabad government led by, well, I mean, nominally by Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, but in reality, really by the Field Marshal Asan Munir of the Pakistani army. So the Field Marshal, he's been instrumental in trying to get the Iranians and the Americans to agree on the broad front framework of what the agreement will look like. So basically, they are planning the concept of a plan. Let me repeat this again. They are planning the concept of a plan. So we are not there yet. However, with incredible chicanery from the Pakistani side, and especially with a model in which they sell you 80% reality and 20% exaggeration of the reality to both sides in order to sweeten the deal without the other side knowing what they are doing. So this has led to considerable amount of misunderstandings between the two sides. However, the broader agreement, as Trump sees it and as he tweeted about it, but without details, however, we know the details because that's what we do in conflicted, is that the US will accept that Pakistan will be the nominated country for the excavation, collection, transportation and custody of the 460kg of highly enriched uranium. 45% of it is buried under Fordow and 55% of it is hidden beneath the tunnels of Isfahan. This is the first and the Americans signed up to it. And this will piss off Israel and India as if like in a. Basically we don't have enough pissed off countries in the region. We need basically to add more pissed off countries because that's roughly about 12 nuclear bombs worth of highly enriched uranium. And that the Israelis don't trust the Pakistanis, the Indians don't trust the Pakistanis. There is a lot of tension around that.
- [08:10]
Thomas Small
But the United States is, broadly speaking okay with this idea that Pakistan should oversee the extraction of the nuclear material from Iran.
- [08:19]
Eamonn
Well, they are okay with it because it does in the end remove the immediate danger of Iran being a threshold breakthrough in a nuclear country. So that's it. It removes the immediate danger. And of course, the Americans can always turn to the Indians and to the Israelis and say, look, all of this will happen under strict American supervision. However, that strict American supervision is not something that the Iranians are signed up to. Now. The next step is that the Americans will agree to 10 years moratorium on uranium enrichment, which in practice means 15 years, because by the time the Iranians want to start enrichment, it will take them five years to reach some full capacity. So that's 15 years.
- [09:05]
Thomas Small
I just want to stop you there, Eamonn, because when you told me about this new sort of negotiating point from the Americans that they would be willing to accept a 10 year moratorium, which is something like a 15 year moratorium, I must say I thought really that struck me as extremely unlikely. It seems like a real climb down for the Trump administration. Harder for him to sell that as a success closer to a JCPOA kind of situation that would be an embarrassment to the White House. So I thought, is that a real negotiating position from the Americans or is it something that Trump might say before launching a big attack or something like that?
- [09:44]
Eamonn
No, it is real because for him, he wants to remove the immediate danger, which is the highly enriched uranium, which did not exist at the time of the jcopa, let's be clear about that. So he wants to remove the immediate danger. The third part is that the Iranians would in exchange receive roughly about $27 billion in unfrozen assets. And of course there will be a gradual talk of lifting the sanctions linked to general goodwill and de escalation across the region, especially with the proxies. This is the American position. And of course one part of the American position is that. And that's it. Like in a free navigation across the Hormuz Strait, it goes without saying the Iranian position, how they countered back, was a little bit weird. And during these three past days, dear listeners, something weird happened and especially in the space around who is ruling Iran.
- [10:50]
Thomas Small
Well, that's the real question. Who is actually in charge in Tehran?
- [10:55]
Eamonn
Eamon, as you know, Thomas Lakhan, I mean you have seen the report that our intelligence company CND put out on Friday and you read it about the coup that Golubov, who is the speaker of the Parliament in Iran, who is of course a former mayor of Tehran, before that he was a general in the IRGC and a pilot. He wanted to present himself not only to the Americans and the gcc, but also to Russia and China as the new Gorbachev of Iran. So he co opted the President Bezoshkiyan, he co opted the Foreign Minister Arakchi, he co opted the Bazari, and he co opted also with them some of the IRGC senior officials who are running what we call the IRGC economic and financial empire. Because the IRGC controls roughly about 45% of the Iranian economy.
- [11:51]
Thomas Small
As you've explained many times unconflicted, the IRGC is roughly sort of analyzed into two halves. There's the economic, more pragmatic, financially oriented, kind of worldly IRGC and the more hardline, ideological, militant revolutionary irgc. And you're saying Golibov has managed, you think, to co opt that economic half of the irgc?
- [12:16]
Eamonn
Yeah, at least some of them. So he presented himself as, you know, such. And he was leading a coup, really a coup within Iran to present himself as the Gorbachev. And he had the support of Russia, he had the support of China, he had the support of some GCC members, including Saudi Arabia, and most importantly from Turkey. And of course the Pakistanis wanted to support him. And of course the Pakistanis were presenting him to the Trump administration as this is now the face of the regime change. So when we hear Trump always saying regime change, regime change, we talk to the new leaders, to the new leaders, he meant Golubov. However, nine hours, you know, after we published that report, I got a phone call from a senior Saudi intel friend of mine, senior official in the intelligence service there. And he said to me, well, great Eamon, you published a report about Galleybaaf leading a coup. And then nine hours later, well, guess what, Ayman, there is a counter coup happening right now in Iran led by General Wahidi of the irgc, the leader of the irgc, and the only one who's in constant communication with the Supreme Leader, who's now hidden in that kind of like in a mini occultation. So I was thinking, oh my God, what have we done? But anyway, so the counter coup is actually, you know, in effect. And the leader of the irgc, General Ahmed Vahidi, who of course, we need to know more about him, he is, from 1988 until 1998, he was the founder and the first commander of the Quds Force.
- [14:01]
Thomas Small
Wow, so he's a hardliner.
- [14:03]
Eamonn
Exactly. Hezbollah, you know, and the Hamas and the embryonic stages of the Houthis, all established under his command. And then after that, he went on to become, what to become the Minister of Interior, so responsible for internal security in Iran. After that he went on during the government of Ahmadinejad. From 2004 until 2013, he was the Minister of Defense. And so of course, we are talking about a formidable individual. So General Ahmad Fahedi, he is now in charge of Iran. He led the counter coup and immediately paraded Galibaef and the president on national TV to explain themselves that they are not negotiating away Iran's achievements in the nuclear field. They are not going to give up Iran's rights to the Hormuz trade. That's a Bit odd. And so suddenly you start to see that there is someone new in charge. And then just I wake up literally yesterday to another message from, you know, also a senior intelligence official within a country in the Middle east that is extremely important. I don't know, I say, which one who is telling me like this? General Wahidi has seized power. We are dead serious about it.
- [15:35]
Thomas Small
Okay, that's a big, A big shift, Eamonn. That's a big development.
- [15:39]
Eamonn
Yes.
- [15:39]
Thomas Small
Do you think the White House knows this for sure or are they still hoping that they can get some traction with golly bath?
- [15:47]
Eamonn
Well, we were told that, okay, the position has shifted. Now we want, in addition to everything that the US has offered, we will study the proposals. We haven't yet agreed to repatriation of the nuclear materials. We haven't yet agreed to the moratorium on enrichment. And yet we want to insert two new important aspects to the negotiations. Number one, and this will surprise you a little bit, we want to have a full security control over the Strait of Hormuz for at least five years ahead.
- [16:27]
Thomas Small
Wow.
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Eamonn
So they want to have full security control. What does that mean? It means that the Iranian IRGC has the right to, to inspect the ships, to stop them, to board them, to ask for the manifest, whether for the crew or the cargo. So of course the GCC countries are not accept that. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, uae, Bahrain, they're saying, look like this is intrusion. This is incredible intrusion.
- [17:03]
Thomas Small
Especially since in the last few days there have been events in, in the Gulf of Oman, around the Strait of Hormuz that, you know, means that on the one side, the Americans are prosecuting their blockade of Iranian shipping with force. They seized the cargo ship, the Tuska in a very dramatic episode which you can describe for us a couple of days before that, or possibly on Saturday, I suppose, the IRGC harassed a tanker that was trying to run the Strait. So they were very much pressing their advantage there. So, you know, things in this part of the world, in the Strait and in the Gulf of Oman are very hot.
- [17:44]
Eamonn
Indeed they are. That's why, you know, they wanted to insert that demand in this new kind of negotiating position. This is their new negotiating position. We want security control over the strait because we want to, because we want to give or withhold permission to any ship that we, you know, want. And so including military ships, you know, for the GCC or for the Americans or any other power they deemed, you know, unfriendly, that is, you know, unacceptable. In addition, they, they ask, this is the second, you know, new negotiating Positions they are coming with, they're coming up with the idea that, okay, Lebanon, namely Hezbollah, needs to be part of the agreement. They want, number one, that there should be no direct negotiations between the government of Lebanon and Israel. You know, they want all of that to be handled by the Iranian state, which is rather unreasonable demand.
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Thomas Small
Well, it's an absolutely blatant kind of what sort of declaration of how the Iranian regime considers Lebanon. They consider Lebanon to be a colony, a forward base. You know, they're being very open about that now.
- [18:57]
Eamonn
A colony. Exactly. Exactly. So what they are asking is they want Hezbollah not to be disarmed. Instead they want Hezbollah to negotiate through a national dialogue within Lebanon the status of its arms and its military wing for up to five years. And so the idea is we want Hezbollah to be left alone there. That's in practice what they want as a forward base against Israel and as a security guarantee against Israel should Israel not behave well towards Iran. Now, of course, these are obstructionist positions and it's definitely inserted by the IRGC after they have taken control of the government in Iran. In addition, they then came up just less than 18 hours ago with new not negotiating position, but a pre negotiating position. And that is we want, before we start talking even to you about all the things we were discussing before we do that, we want the blockade on the hormones strait by the American side to be lifted. If you lift it, then we will come to Islamabad. If you don't lift it, then let it be failabad. So it's very clear here that we are facing an obstructionist Iranian position. And what we see here is that the leaks and counter leaks from within the regime, the statements and the counter statements, and it seems now that the recent one which I sent you just 15 minutes before we started recording by the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi, when he said that the Foreign Ministry is responsible for negotiating. That's interesting. I thought the head of the parliament was, you know, which is, you know, Mohammed Bagr Galiboff.
- [21:12]
Thomas Small
Yeah. So clearly Aradchi is saying that Golibouf has been sidelined. But also it seems to me, Ayman, that it's saying that, you know, basically despite what the White House might wish, they will not have the opportunity to negotiate directly with the real decision makers in Iran. The Foreign Ministry is still in charge of negotiating. But this means that just like it's been for years and years and years, the Western camp in these negotiations cannot talk to the decision makers.
- [21:39]
Eamonn
No, cannot. And this is why even Mr. Arakji said in his statement released by the Islamic Republic News Agency irna, he said, not only that the negotiations are going to be indirect so we will not have face to face anymore. And on top of this, oh, we want a change of venue. We don't want Islamabad anymore. We want Oman. We want to go back to square one, possibly square zero.
- [22:08]
Thomas Small
Yeah, that's really interesting indeed. I mean, what makes that interesting to me is that the IRGC or the Islamic Republic since the beginning of the war on 28 February has behaved in a very unfriendly way towards Oman. In some respects you've made that clear in several episodes of conflicted. I would have thought that that would have led to a breakdown in relations between Iran and Oman. How do you think the Omani leadership would respond to the idea that it returned to the position it played before of mediator?
- [22:44]
Eamonn
So far we have no idea. I mean, this is just breaking news. We don't know how the Omanis will react to this. Of course, the Omanis can only accept being a mediator if the White House accept that Oman could become a mediator. And I think this will be a big insult, of course by Iran towards Field Marshal Hassan Munir of Pakistan and to Pakistani nation as a whole that they are no longer trusted to carry out the duty of mediation. And from the beginning I said that I don't think Pakistan is suitable for this role because as I suspected, they have resorted to rather underhanded tactics in order to secure each party's acquiescence to come to the negotiating tables by over promising each side things that the other side did not promise. And that is not good. It's a bad faith mediation.
- [23:45]
Thomas Small
Well, Eamon, that's a good summary of where things stand. Although frankly, I'm not sure if I feel like I have any clearer an idea of, of the war, what's going to happen next. It seems to me that peace is very far away, that the IRGC is digging in its heels. Obviously, you know, the ideological hardliners are in control and so they may not consider things as rationally as a disinterested person would. But it might also mean that having weighed up all the options and having surveyed the field of battle and licked their wounds a bit, the IRGC thinks that by, you know, digging in their heels and waiting it out, that they can in fact sort of win this war simply by surviving and that at the end of it will be able to rebuild enough to project their power even more powerfully across the Persian Gulf region, et cetera. They might be gambling on this. And I don't know, maybe they're right, given the erratic nature of Donald Trump, the political pressures that he's under at home, I don't know, because there's a military buildup still underway of American assets in the region. So is all of this, and has all of this been from the beginning just, you know, time buying by the White House to put their pieces on the chessboard or whatever so that they can launch another big wave of attacks?
- [25:11]
Eamonn
Look, my understanding is that it wasn't just buying time. Cynically, no. There was a genuine belief that if we can get what we want without war, but with coercive diplomacy through the massive and awesome display of firepower being amassed in the region, whether by air or on the sea, then yes, that would have been far more welcome outcome. As far as Trump is concerned. He want to say, hey, look, I mean, I got the deal, I got the deal. I'm the master of the deal. But the reality is that Trump seems to be oblivious to who is in control in Iran.
- [26:01]
Thomas Small
Okay, Eamonn, well, we're going to take a quick break now and when we get back, you're going to help us understand where things might go from here. With the proviso, as ever, that nobody knows. We'll be right back.
- [26:22]
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- [27:52]
Thomas Small
Okay, we're back. Eamonn. Before we talk about the future, let's talk about some more discreet events that have happened in the last few days, especially in the Gulf of Oman and around the Strait of Hormuz. You know, everyone knows the Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian or Arabian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, or at least did before this war broke out. So it's very geostrategically important. The strait at the moment is not totally, totally closed, but it is severely restricted. Some vessels using Iranian designated lanes are passing through, but most vessels are either waiting to, you know, waiting for things to, to change so they can leave or turning back if they're trying to approach. But. So it's not totally closed, but it is essentially closed now, Eamon. On the 18th of April, so this is a Saturday, about 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman, a tanker was approached by two IRGC gunboats. And without a radio warning, you know, so without any kind of advance warning, shots were fired. That's one example of the sort of things that are happening at the moment in the Gulf of Oman. What happened and what other such events do people not know about?
- [29:16]
Eamonn
Well, the tanker you refer to is Indian tanker and is carrying 2 million barrels of oil, of Iraqi oil. I mean, the irony is the captain was shouting at the IRGC in the radio, telling them, you gave me clearance, you gave me clearance, we paid. So it's like, okay, it's like, what you doing? And it's Iraqi oil, which already the President of Iran, you know, the irrelevant, the useless, the hapless. He said Iraq can export through the Hormuz trade. They are our brothers. I mean, they can export as much as they like. Well, they tried. And guess what? You know, they were fired at two nations that are friends of Iran, India and Iraq has been attacked by the irgc. Okay, the second one on Saturday, the cma cgm, it's a French giant shipping company. Their cargo ship was attacked and of course it had to back away. And that shows that no amount of sucking up to the ayatollahs could spare you, isn't it, Macron? Anyway, so the reality is that it doesn't matter who you are, you'll still be attacked. And so in this climate, the US decided, you know what, you started firing. You know what, we're going to do our own firing, too. So the US Navy decided to intercept or interdict Depending on basically what language you use, a ship is called the Tusker. As you mentioned earlier in the episode Thomas, this is a cargo ship coming from China. And according to intelligence, it was carrying chemical materials that are essential for the production of ballistic missile fuel. So, you know, the solid fuel that you put in the ballistic missiles in order to set them up and, you know, send them to your enemies. Of course, that is big news because this is a big container ship. It is almost as big as an aircraft carrier. As Trump said in his tweet, it's 280 meters long. So it was seized. But how? It was after dramatic six hour chase in which the Americans were begging them, we don't want to fire on you, you know, please stop, please stop. But they are ignoring the whole thing. They just want to run the blockade. So they decided, you know what, they radioed them, the American Navy radioed the cargo ship Tuske and said, get your men out of the engine room. So they got out of the engine room and then they started firing at the engine room to disable the ship, which they did. They boarded the cargo ship and they took possession of the cargo and of course, arrested the crew. Now, here is the issue is the fact that immediately after that, the IRGC announced that they have launched dozens of drones against the US Navy. Of course, if there was any impact, we would have heard about it by now. Most likely they were intercepted. But nonetheless, this is the first firing incident since the ceasefire was announced 13 days ago. And that is why the new position by the IRGC is that if you want to talk to us and imagine this is happening just 36 hours before the ceasefire expire. And so what you see here is the hardening of the position of the Iranians. You want to talk to us? Lift the blockade entirely. Of course, after this incident, it's very difficult for President Trump to come around and say, well, you know what, look, I mean, I'm going to entertain your new hardline leadership. I'm going to lift the blockade. He might do. I'm not saying he wouldn't, you know, he might do it. He's crazy enough, like I'm talking about Trump here, he's crazy enough to do anything. He's so unpredictable. But let's say he does. And, you know, I'm just hypothetically speaking here. So let's say that Trump be, you know, decide to be gracious, you know, and not vindictive and angry as his nature indicate. So let's say that he decided, you know what, I'm gonna Be gracious. I'm gonna lift the blockade. Okay, let's talk now. And even if they were to sit down together again and in front of each other, direct talks with Golubov present. And by the way, Golubov has now expressed that he is concerned he might be removed from the speakership of the Parliament. He is concerned that his position now is in doubt. He just expressed this publicly just now as we speak. So when I talk about the counter coup, it's happening.
- [34:26]
Thomas Small
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Clearly. Incredible. It's happening in real time, Eamon, as we speak.
- [34:30]
Eamonn
Yeah. So let's say that the Americans managed to speak to Galibov face to face, and they tell him, okay, we want the uranium out. No. We want moratorium on enrichment. No. Okay, what are your expectations, you know, from the Iranian side? We want security control over the Hormuz Strait for years to come. We want Hezbollah to be untouchable in Lebanon and to remain a state within a state in Lebanon as a forward base for the IRGC in Lebanon against Israel. And it's like the American negotiator, they're sitting and thinking, but these are terms of surrender from our side. Are you out of your mind? What are you smoking?
- [35:12]
Thomas Small
Absolutely. Eamon, quick. Before we move away from the question of the blockade, I read that so far, since the blockade began, 23 vessels have been intercepted or turned back by the United States.
- [35:25]
Eamonn
26. 26.
- [35:25]
Thomas Small
26. 26 now. Oh, it's 26 now?
- [35:28]
Eamonn
Yeah, absolutely.
- [35:28]
Thomas Small
Okay, there you go. So 26 vessels have been intercepted or turned back since the blockade began. These demands from the IRGC are clearly unacceptable. Not just to the United States, Eamon, but to Israel. I mean, they certainly would never accept any of those conditions, not least the ones to do with Lebanon. Let's kind of briefly talk about Lebanon if we can, because there have been some pretty explosive events in the last 24 hours there, including the deaths of some French soldiers, if I'm not mistaken. Eamonn. I don't know if you feel that that's going to change things for France and for the French President Emmanuel Macron, who has been so against, really the US War and has been trying to triangulate in the usual French way what happened in Lebanon in the last 24 hours or so, Eamon. And do you think it might shift the French position?
- [36:25]
Eamonn
Well, I don't know about the French position, to be honest. I mean, it is puzzling to say the least. They have always been rather friendly towards Hezbollah. They see Hezbollah as a genuine political movement representing at Least half the Shia of Lebanon and that therefore they shouldn't be canceled. But when you tell them, yeah, but what about the fact that they are unarmed terrorist designated militia? They say, yeah, well, you know what, this is a complicated thing. We need to be open for dialogue. Well, you were not open for dialogue with Al Qaeda or ISIS in Africa, were you? So either you confront terrorism everywhere or you don't. You can't differentiate between, well, that's a good terrorist and that's a bad terrorist. I mean, terrorist is a terrorist as long as they keep practicing that terrorism. And then in the end, the same terrorists who they keep defending turned their guns on them and killed, of course, one French soldier and wounded three others. Both Israeli and French investigations, despite Hezbollah's denial, concluded that it was Hezbollah who actually pulled the trigger and killed the French soldier and wounded three other in the same unit. And of course since then, there has been in the past 24 hours, intense fighting between Hezbollah operatives and the Israeli army. The Israeli army also attacked a rocket launcher before it was launching rockets into Israel in clear violation of the ceasefire. And they are doing it because Hezbollah is worried about any advancing potential for peace between Lebanon and Israel separate from the Iranian track. Because why already? The Lebanese president put out a tweet today, also saying that I'm instructing one of the ambassadors. He's nominating the Lebanese ambassador in Paris for the purpose of negotiating with the Israelis. And he said Lebanon will not be subject to another track of negotiations. We will lead our negotiations, our own, without being tied to another negotiation. He means we want to be separate from the Iranian track. Hezbollah want to sabotage that?
- [38:55]
Thomas Small
Sure. Is this why yesterday Ayman Hezbollah ambushed Israeli soldiers near Tayba, the first attack since the ceasefire. I mean, that seems like a very aggressive move that is bound to basically to cause the situation to break down entirely and Israeli attacks will resume in force.
- [39:17]
Eamonn
There's no question in my mind they really want to sabotage the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel if it means that this ceasefire will lead to the Lebanese state imposing its legitimate diplomatic will on Hezbollah. And to say we gonna have a peace with the Israelis, you have to just follow through with it. And they are saying no way, because a peace with the Israelis will result, if it is brokered by the Lebanese government will result in disarmament of Hezbollah. That is the Israeli position and they insist on it. Now the Iranians already said we are not going to negotiate with Americans anything until they accept that Lebanon, and Hezbollah in particular, is part of the overall settlement which the Americans are saying we Gonna piss off the Israelis royally if we do that. And so it seems that the whole thing became a clusterfuck of a shit show.
- [40:23]
Thomas Small
Well, just to sort of summarize everything we've learned today, Eamon, So a soft coup, Iran, led by Galiboff to effectively co opt a number of important political centers, including some parts of the irgc, has been, it seems, successfully countered by the IRGC hardliners who are basically now running the country and basically, you know, leading the charge in these quote, unquote negotiations or whatever. They have increased their demands or made more maximalist demands, ones which the United States and Israel could never accept, ones which gcc, let's say hardliners like the Emirates, because it seems like the Saudis, as always, are being a bit more moderate in this regard. The Emirates would definitely not accept it. Now all of this is happening while escalation is occurring. America continues to build up its military apparatus in the region. There have been those events in the Gulf of Oman that we described. You know, I think Iran continues to suggest quite openly that it is willing to bring the Bab El Mendeb into the conflict. It now explicitly states that Saudi Aramco facilities, the Saudi oil hub of Yanbo and the Fujairah port by the Emirates on the Gulf of Oman will be attacked in the next wave of attacks, should they start again. So, you know, where does this leave us? The ceasefire is holding, but incredibly unstable. When do you expect Eamonn for there to be a return to war since clearly war is back on the front
- [42:00]
Eamonn
burner From a military point of view, ideally, Trump wanted this to drag at least until the 29th of April. We are now on the 20th of April. So he wanted it to drag until the 29th. He wanted an extra nine days at least, or at least seven days from the 22nd. So we might expect just a little bit of 30% possibility that Trump might announce that for the sake of peace and trying to sit down with the Iranians, let's give them another week. What he means by that is that the optimal position for the USS George H.W. bush aircraft carrier to arrive in the region, that will be the third aircraft carrier in the region. And the U.S. will have three aircraft strike groups with at least 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles. And then the U.S. will have at least 450, possibly 500 fighter jets in the region alongside Israel's 350. So we're talking about possibly 850 fighter jets in the region. That will give the U.S. and Israel considerable firepower so maybe he will announce yet another ceasefire, but that's about 30%, 70%. The ceasefire expire and the escalations take place and we are back into the US and Israel. But this time instead of attacking military targets, they will also be attacking infrastructure targets in Iran because many people will say but that's a war crime. You are attacking bridges and power stations. Actually during time of war bridges and power stations cease to be purely civilian. They become also military targets, legitimate because of their dual use. So I need to correct people before they start screaming at me saying ah, it's a war crime. But no it's not. And unfortunately it's because we haven't seen yet since a long time ago, an all out war against the nation, this kind of warfare. But it is legitimate. It doesn't mean it's desirable. It doesn't mean basically it's a good thing. I'm not calling for that. I'm just saying that we could see it because of the utility of cutting off supplies, both power and land supplies by blowing up the bridges.
- [44:37]
Thomas Small
Well Eamonn, what about you guys there in Dubai, in the uae? Do you think then that you're going to be woken up again in the middle of the night to those notifications telling you about drone attacks and ballistic missile attacks? What sort of capability do you think the IRGC still has to launch attacks across the Gulf and further afield? This is something that a lot of my friends text me about. And I think a lot of people are wondering is the IRGC's maximalist position now its demands, is it just bluster? Have they been seriously degraded and do they only have this kind of bluster? Is this like a big game of chicken? What capabilities does Iran have?
- [45:21]
Eamonn
They still have capabilities to inflict damage, there is no question about it. They haven't yet use their entire stockpile of short range ballistic missiles and drones against the gcc. So they will. They also have the non ballistic missiles such as Fateh110 and also Shahed, sorry, Hadid110. Hadid110 is a fast 600 kilometer per hour jet engine powered drone. You know, we expect Fateh110 and Zelzal family of missiles to be used against the gcc. Especially Bahrain, uae, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar again. So unfortunately the GCC is in a very difficult position. Either accept that Iran will have, because that's Iran's demand that affects them. Iran will have security control over the Strait of Hormuz for years to come. And there is nothing they can do about it or suffer some pain now, but in the end of it, Iran might drop this demand after they get hit hard by the US and the Israelis. And this time, my understanding is that there are at least three countries in the gcc, without naming them, who are now completely, completely ready for retaliation themselves if attacked by the Iranians. This time, they're not going to stay quiet or silent. And especially if you remember one of them, I will say it's the uae. They have attacked the island of Syri and the island of Liwan just as the ceasefire started. Because when the ceasefire started, for some reason, the UAE was at the receiving end of 50 plus ballistic missiles and drones and the Emiratis were saying, ah, no, we're not going to have it. So they bombed the island of Syri and the island of Liwan and they inflicted damage on the oil refinery in the Iranian island of Levan. So will they do it again? Yes, if they are attacked?
- [47:27]
Thomas Small
Well, Eamon, you know, I've been thinking as often I do about history and about the wider view and you know, as we've explored and discussed on conflicted many times before, historically speaking, that part of the world, I mean the west coast of the Arabian Gulf and for much of history as well, Mesopotamia, that whole part of Arabia, if you like, Eastern Arabia, fell within the Iranian sphere of influence, fell quite naturally within that sphere of influence because of geography. Again, as we've discussed, the idea of a patchwork of independent, fully sovereign Arab nation states in the heartland of the Middle east was always an idea that required for it to succeed. The neutralization in some way or another of the three traditional great power centers of the region, Egypt, Anatolia or the Iranian plateau. And until now, it has been the United States that has been the guarantor of that Arab sovereignty that has allowed the gcc, has allowed Jordan, has allowed indeed Israel and other states to maintain their own independence and sovereignty and has kept at bay those Anatolian, Egyptian and Iranian power centers. So again, we have to face the facts that maybe this whole episode will prove to be America's last war in the Middle east and it will be a Suez moment and will pull out. I mean, I just say this to remind the listener the stakes involved for the Arabs of the Middle east. Because for most of human history, they have not been independent political actors. They have been subject to imperial powers from those three centers, often the Iranian power center. This is what is dictating or governing the ideas of the IRGC at the moment when they claim their control of the Strait of Hormuz this is historically, you know, it's a return to a status quo ante that pertained for many centuries. And this is a return to a world that the Middle east would like not to return to. But sadly, Eamon, America must be there for this to happen.
- [49:45]
Eamonn
Okay, let me counter here, something you remember, Thomas, when we. I will counter two points here. The first one is the Suez moment for America. And the second one is a question of the ability for the Arabian dynasties, let's put them here in the region to remain independent. So regarding the Suez moment for America, the American administration is aware of that, is aware that this could be the Suez moment. And that's why Stephen Miller, the Deputy Chief of Staff in the White House, he was a war skeptic, but for some reason he might have heard what you and I said in a previous episode when we talked about why this war is happening. It is in its essence a war to protect and to defend and to ensure the US maritime global established order being guarded and defended. And then he said it himself, he said, this war will set the tone for the US naval power and influence for a hundred years to come. That's what he said. Exactly. And I sent you that. And I said to you, is he listening to the conflicted podcast?
- [51:00]
Thomas Small
Maybe he is, yeah.
- [51:02]
Eamonn
He repeated more or less like what you and I said. So no, the US is aware of it and they don't want to withdraw from the world state defeated by Iran, a mid sized power and a battered midsize power for that matter. They don't want this to be the Suez moment because that will be a disaster for a country where its currency and its status as the energy currency, reserve currency and trade currency being undermined at the moment when the national debt is $38 trillion. That's not the right moment right now. So the Navy is there to protect America before they are protecting Israel or the Arab states. As for the Arab dynasties, there is for the first time in 2000 years, for the first time in 2000 years we have as the Arab monarchies of the region something that we never had before that will allow independence even without the protection of an imperial power or for us to come under an imperial power. For the first time in 2000 years, we have something that we never had before, Wealth. And with that wealth comes what? Knowledge. For the first time, the Human Development index in the GCC, in the harmonics collectively is 0.9, which is among the highest outside of the traditional Lakinamian, European, American. It's the highest. It's actually like, I mean, much higher than Iran, which is 0.75. It shows that the knowledge, the experience, you know, and with the wealth that we have, we built huge economies and with it we built scientific base. And with it, amazingly, we've built, you know, a military that is formidable and can defend itself against and defend the countries against foreign invaders. And for the first time, basically, since we are the source of energy for at least significant parts of the world that also in itself provide protection. The protection of the energy as opposed to the protection and the patronage of larger empires. Larger empires in the past always saw this region and its dynasties as shoeless, clueless, half naked Bedouins. Well, not anymore. Not after we have gained knowledge, wealth, experience and above all the control over important resources. So the wheels of destiny changed a little bit for us.
- [53:44]
Thomas Small
It's true. It's true. Let's hope that things end up, you know, with stability and prosperity for everyone. That's all we wanted. Conflicted, honestly. Goodness gracious. Okay, Aemond, let's bring this to a thank you very much. I'm feeling a little bit depressed now on my birthday, but that's because the miserable east is the gift that keeps on giving.
- [54:05]
Eamonn
Absolutely. And happy birthday, Thomas.
- [54:08]
Thomas Small
Thank you very much, Eamon. Thank you. Thank you all to the dear listeners for listening. We'll be back with you next week for another update, no doubt on this constantly shifting war. You know, until then, take care.
- [54:18]
Eamonn
Take care everyone.
- [54:20]
Thomas Small
Conflicted is a message heard. Production Our executive producers are Jake Warren and Max Warren. This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small.
- [54:39]
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