Loading summary
Transcript104 lines
- [00:00]
Commercial Announcer
Your next chapter in healthcare starts at Carrington College's School of Nursing in Portland. Join us for our open house on Tuesday, January 13th from 4 to 7pm you'll tour our campus, see live demos, meet instructors and learn about our Associate Degree in Nursing program that prepares you to become a registered nurse. Take the first step toward your nursing career. Save your spot now@carrington.edu events. For information on program outcomes, visit carrington.edu sci.
- [00:31]
Thomas Small
Some follow the noise, Bloomberg follows the money. Whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings, there's a money side to every story. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now@bloomberg.com she does a lot for your family. Mother's Day is your chance to show her. You see it with a gift from a brand trusted for generations to help
- [00:56]
Eamon
people get the moment right.
- [00:57]
Thomas Small
1-800-flowers with double blooms from 1-800-flowers. Buy one dozen roses and get another dozen for free. It's a bigger gesture backed by 50 years of experience delivering fresh flowers so you can feel confident sending something that lands. Show up for her with Double blooms at 1-800-Flowers.com Spotify. That's 1-800-Flowers. Com Spotify.
- [01:19]
Eamon
Ryan Reynolds here from IT Mobile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same Premium Wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities. Do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to Mint Mobile today. I'm told it's super easy to do@mintmobile.com
- [01:37]
Commercial Announcer
Switch upfront payment of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month required intro rate first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See full terms@mintmobile.com hello dear listeners.
- [01:50]
Thomas Small
Welcome back to Conflicted Eamon. I see you there. How are you doing man?
- [01:53]
Eamon
I'm still alive. Still trying to navigate the ceasefire, which is far more exhausting than the war itself, man. And also, like I can call it now, the mother of all ceasefires.
- [02:05]
Thomas Small
Well, dear listeners, we're recording this on the 26th of April. So that's Sunday the 26th of April. It is 1.30pm UK time, 4.30pm UAE time. Things change all the time. Things have changed a lot over the last three or four days, Eamonn. I'm looking forward to you telling us about it. What's the sort of headline that you're bringing to the table today?
- [02:26]
Eamon
Well, it is the collapse of the deal I call it, you know, because, you know, President Trump is obsessed with nothing but the deal, the deal, the beautiful deal, the nice deal, the amazing deal, the mega deal, the deal, the deal, the deal, the deal, the deal. It's like, you know, all the time, he is obsessed about the deal. He mentioned the deal 4,000 times, you know, in the past week or so. However, that sweet, beautiful, lovely, you know, amazing deal that he was looking for did not materialize. And we have to talk about why it did not materialize.
- [02:58]
Thomas Small
Well, it was not the triumph of the art of the deal in Islamabad. In fact, as you say, it was a failure of the deal. And Eamonn, you're gonna tell us all about that. We're gonna talk about lots of other things, beginning with Donald Trump himself. Dear listeners, I got some stuff I wanna say. Let's get right into it. Amen. Amen. Amen. Donald Trump. Now, when it became clear two years ago or so, I guess, that Donald Trump was going to become president again, I was thrown into a massive pity party, frankly, because I remembered how deranging it was the first four years that he was president. And I'm not particularly talking about political decisions he took or policy positions his administration took or anything like that. It's just the atmosphere around the man, both the atmosphere emanating from himself and the atmosphere that he creates in other people. The constant chaos, the constant confusion, the anger, the narcissism, which, you know, he's even older now, is worse now. But I was not looking forward to returning to that world, the Donald Trump world. I thought it was gonna be irritating, as indeed it has been since Liberation Day, since the very beginning, since Doge and all this, it's just been a constant, constant headache even to know what the hell's going on. But since the 28th of February and the launch of this war, or even two months before that, since those tweets he sent at the end of December where he told the Iranian people he was gonna come to their rescue. So the last almost five months, I have been increasingly convinced that Donald Trump is the problem with this war. Donald Trump is the problem that I'm putting my hand up and saying I think he is to blame for what's going on. Eamonn, what do you think?
- [05:02]
Eamon
Well, since I'm not an American, I did not pay much attention to his style of presidency, to be honest, until now, until his style of presidency started to impact where I live and the countries that I belong to, namely Bahrain, Saudi and the uae. And given the fact that how Also, wars are conducted. When you conduct a war, half of your strength is the perception of your strength is the perception of your power, the fact that you are powerful, that you are in complete control of the process. But two things really bothered me immensely about this conflict and how Donald Trump had managed it so far. The first one is, and according to a friend of mine from the US Military, it's like we are fighting a war according to the working hours, the opening hours of the Wall street stock market. I mean, and so how can we actually conduct a war like this? It's just impossible. So that's the first thing that I didn't like at all, is that the way he hypes the market positively, despite the fact that the realities on the ground are different. And then, I mean, over the weekend, there is escalation. So that has eroded trust in him and gave the impression that either him or people around him are indeed profiting from this conflict.
- [06:38]
Thomas Small
Oh, certainly the corruption levels are off the charts. It's a real problem. These people are making money. But a few weeks ago, you were talking quite well, you adopted a different tone towards President Trump's messaging for the markets. You were suggesting then that it was all strategic, that in fact, even maybe the military men themselves were saying, we need you to say this. We need some time. We need you to say this. We need to make the market think one thing so that the price of oil will drop a little bit. So it starts from a lower level when it starts to rise. It seemed that you were saying this was all part of the strategy, but now the military is fed up with it or something. So what's changed?
- [07:19]
Eamon
Well, it was and it still is the case that market manipulation is part of the overall strategy. But it's not supposed to be the strategy. It's not supposed to be the absolute priority. The question here is, do you want to win a war or manage the market? Managing the market should be secondary to actually winning the war. So the military people that I talk to are fed up with this because they say that manipulating the market, or as they say, calming down the markets are supposed to be secondary consideration to the primary consideration, which is winning this bloody war. The fact of the matter is that managing the turmoil of the market should be the second objective after actually winning the war, because the war is the reason for the turmoil in the market. Win the war and the turmoil in the market will go away by itself. But then what's happening is it seems that President Trump became obsessed with the symptom rather than the cause. In other words, just get on with it with this short term pain in order, you know, to enjoy your long term gain later. To the point where I've heard, you know, according to some good authority, that one GCC leader who I'm not going to reveal who fed up with the whole thing recently, that he actually gave a call to Jared Kushner and he said, what am I hearing about you and your bloody family, you know, benefiting to the tune of hundreds of millions from shorts on the oil and all of that. Like, I mean, you know, what? If it is money you look after, tell me, I will cut you a check for a few billions and just be done with it. My country is losing tens of billions because of this bloody war and you are not finishing it. You are prolonging the suffering for us and for the Iranians. Just tell us. So what happened is Jared Kushner was far more apologetic, actually. He said, trust me, your whatever highness, and all of that, I assure you, I assure you, not a single member of the Trump family or the inner circle benefited the tune of $1 from this. We are not stupid. We are not crazy. There is definitely insider trading happening. We are investigating it and we will look into it. And whoever is doing it will get the full weight of the law coming down to them. However, he said, we are definitely calming the market because, you know, this is a war unlike any other war that was fought before. What is the biggest weapon of the Iranian side is rhetoric and threats. They perfected the art of threats and public perception and manipulation. And every time they threaten massive attacks on oil facilities, they keep threatening that all the time. So we have to go and assure the markets, oh, no, we're going to have a peace deal and things will be fine. So we, you know, we keep putting out the fires because if we haven't done it, in our estimates, the oil would be 200 up to $220 by now.
- [10:30]
Thomas Small
Okay, Eamon, now I can see why Kushner would tell this unnamed Gulf leader what you say he said, but honestly, let's call a spade a spade here. That is not believable. I do not believe that. I think that that is bullshit, and I'm sure that that Gulf leader knew that it was bullshit. But this is just how these things go. Because, you know, in a call between leaders, you can't necessarily tell the truth.
- [10:59]
Eamon
Exactly.
- [11:00]
Thomas Small
But obviously, Donald Trump, his family and his inner circle are getting rich from this war. Everyone knows this to some extent.
- [11:07]
Eamon
Yes. Unfortunately, there is definitely someone who decided, you know what, that's really bloody profitable. Let's actually keep manipulating the market. Pump and dump all the time. That's the name of the game, baby. But in reality, even the GCC leaders are so fed up with it that one of their most important leaders said to Jared Kushner on the phone, if it's money you're after, I'm gonna cut you a check for a few billions and just be done with it.
- [11:36]
Thomas Small
Well, I wanna come back to what the GCC thinks about Donald Trump in a second. You know, several weeks ago, a friend of mine, you know, a successful financier, he was texting me regularly. This is the first few weeks of the war. He listens to conflicted. And he was saying, look, you guys are being too soft on Trump. He is going to taco because he cares too much about the market. He will not have the balls. He will not see it through because he just cannot accept the economic consequences of a property war of this type. Now, it seems that that is kind of accurate, but when you add to that the idea that he also, or his family or his friends or whatever, realize that this carousel, this merry go round of messaging is making them rich, then, you know, his worst instincts, his worst amoral, venal, you know, greedy instincts will be being fed by this. And, I mean, how is it going to stop? How is it going to stop?
- [12:37]
Eamon
Well, this is where we have to talk about the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse of the deal in Pakistan. Now, you already said that Trump considers himself to be the master of the art of the Deal. Well, over his dealings with Iran, he proved to be the master of the fart of the deal,
- [13:08]
Thomas Small
Man. Eamon, how long did you work on that one, buddy? You have been keeping that? You've been waiting to roll it out?
- [13:16]
Eamon
Because I'm.
- [13:18]
Thomas Small
Okay, I think, Eamon, I think we have a real bestseller on our hands here. We create a new edition of the Art of the Deal, but just slightly modified by you and me. We call it the Fart of the
- [13:34]
Eamon
where we talk about how you don't fuck up international treaties and strategic deals.
- [13:42]
Thomas Small
Okay?
- [13:43]
Eamon
So, I mean, look, I said it because I'm frustrated, sure. Seriously, I am frustrated because history presented President Trump with a golden opportunity to correct a wrong that has been there for. For far too long. And instead of riding into the books of history as the one who dismantled the irgc, instead he is now snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. That is what is happening right now because he is giving the game away to the IRGC and to The Iranians.
- [14:29]
Thomas Small
Explain what you mean by that, Eamon. And let's start by narrating the last few days, because I think most people, including me and Eamon, you keep me really well informed, but even I sometimes don't really understand at any given moment where the negotiations in this deal had got to, or what was really happening or even which countries were involved. Pakistan obviously involved, but then Oman was, and, and the Iranian Foreign Minister Arakchi was traveling to Islamabad, but also traveling to Muscat. And then was the White House sending Kushner and Witkoff to Islamabad or not? Was J.D. vance gonna go? What was the official status of Iraqji in those talks? What happened to Galiboff? You know, you told us last week about the coup, counter, coup dynamic in Iran, where Golubov was trying to establish himself as the new Gorbachev. At least some people thought that, but the hardliners in the IR pushed back against that. It seems to me there's equally the possibility that in the Iranian evil genius, you know, that they have. That they created that illusion the whole time and that there was no split. So what's been going on the last few days?
- [15:38]
Eamon
Okay, so as you know, on the 12th of April, J.D. vance met with, along with Kushner and Witkoff, with the Iranian leadership represented in Galleybaaf, the Speaker of the Parliament, and Arakji, the Foreign Minister, and quite few others, including the head of the Central bank in Iran. And what happened is that talk, we talked about the details of the talk, how the US Offered a lot of financial incentives, a lot of sanction reliefs in return for the transportation of the highly enriched uranium, the suspension of enrichment indefinitely, plus few others, maybe 20 years of suspension. And they started watering it down. After they failed to get that deal across the line, they started watering it down to 15 years, possibly 10 years of suspension of enrichment, other sweeteners and spices here and there. But as the Iranian regime started touting the idea that there will be soon a response to American demands and American inquiries about what counteroffer that the Iranians have in mind. And of course, Trump was getting hyped, was getting excited as the naive person he presented himself to be. Unfortunately, you see in the art of the deal himself, he said that do not show desperation. Yet he broke his own rule, honestly, by showing considerable amount of desperation. He keeps saying that the Iranians are desperate. The Iranians want to talk to us. They wanted deal, they want a beautiful deal, they want a wonderful deal, they want a sweet deal. And he kept hyping this up Day and night that they begging him for a deal. They are begging for the deal. Okay, so because of the fact that. And I believe this to some extent, I would say I believe it. The Supreme Leader of Iran who's being treated from the wounds that he sustained during the assassination.
- [17:50]
Thomas Small
Yeah, and Aman. I mean, give me a break. What wounds? I read a description. This is a tangent, but it made me laugh almost especially as we're approaching May 4th. So, Eamonn, you know, I will be wishing you, may the fourth be with you. But, you know, I read a description where my brother sent me a description. He found of his wounds mentally sharped and engaged. The description went, one leg was operated on three times, and he's awaiting a prosthetic surgery. On one hand is slowly regaining function. His face and lips have been burned severely, making it difficult for him to speak. He will need plastic surgery. And I could think of no one except Anakin Skywalker at the end of Revenge of the Sith when he's being slowly turned into Darth Vader. Are we dealing with a Darth Khamenei here, do you think?
- [18:33]
Eamon
Yes. And we said it ourselves in the Mushtabah Khamenei episode where we talked about him and the prophecies surrounding him, that he will survive an attack, but he will be disfigured. You know, he will lose an eye. You know, he will be facially disfigured, he will lose a leg. You know, we said all of this, you know, based on the prophecies, before we even knew anything about the extent of his injuries.
- [18:59]
Thomas Small
Well, Eamon, maybe the prophecies are true,
- [19:01]
Eamon
but he will not bring balance to the Force. I can assure you of that.
- [19:06]
Thomas Small
All right, Eamon, let's go back to the fart of the deal.
- [19:09]
Eamon
Exactly. So the Supreme Leader is in hiding, Bin Laden style. That's what I've been told by a senior intelligence official here in the gcc.
- [19:22]
Thomas Small
Oh, so you mean he's in Pakistan.
- [19:26]
Eamon
Nice one.
- [19:27]
Thomas Small
Now I see why Pakistan has been mediating these talks. He's living in luxury just outside the Pakistani capital.
- [19:34]
Eamon
Indeed. So it could be, you know, you never know. Like, I mean, we've had so many surprises before. So we have the Supreme Leader in very strict security hiding conditions that communicating with him takes several days for the messages to be transmitted from the political leadership to him. And of course, the gatekeeper here, the only one who is allowed to see him is General Ahmed Vahedi, head of the irgc. Exactly. So everyone was waiting for him to weigh and to consider all the recommendations and the proposals from his political leaders and ministers and, of course, the irgc. So he put together a document himself, signed it, put his signature on it in Farsi, translated into English for the purpose of clarity. So all of this, by the way, is based on two high level senior intelligence officials, like, I mean, who told me this, one from a Middle Eastern country, you know, one from a GCC country, both with knowledge of what that document contained.
- [20:45]
Thomas Small
So this is a document that the Supreme Leader himself signed and then had translated into English to make sure everyone understood it.
- [20:52]
Eamon
Exactly. And then it was announced out of nowhere that Foreign Minister of Iran Arakchi is going to arrive in Islamabad. And the announcement was on Friday morning. And of course, the excitement was through the roof. Trump took straight away into his phone, which I advise the White House aides to please take it away from him for the sake of a better world. And he started tweeting about the deal. The deal. We're gonna get a sweet deal. They are begging for the deal. You know, they are begging for it.
- [21:30]
Thomas Small
So in Trump's mind, this letter with the Supreme Leader's sign is the surrender document with the deal he's been waiting for.
- [21:38]
Eamon
Exactly. So he said, okay, I'm gonna send Witkoff, I'm gonna send Kushner, and I'm gonna put J.D. vance on standby, because, of course, Galiboff didn't come, you know, so that's not right, like, you know, for the Vice President to go and meet a foreign minister. But nonetheless, he would have sent him, you know, if he got a hint, you know, that the document fully was a surrender document.
- [22:04]
Thomas Small
Okay, I'm gonna stop you again, Eamon, sorry, because what you just said made me think, you know, okay, it's true the Vice President should not be meeting with the Foreign minister, but shouldn't the Secretary of State be meeting with the Foreign Minister? Where the hell is Marco Rubio been in the last three or four weeks? Eamonn? I had the idea in my head, really. It came to fruition earlier this year that Marco Rubio is a pretty impressive dude and was doing a good job. A great speaker, articulating things well, but he's been completely invisible for the last few weeks. Why isn't he being sent to Islamabad?
- [22:39]
Eamon
Because he knows it's a failure. They are setting up JD Vance for a failure. They are setting him up to fail. And that would reflect badly on his bids to succeed President Trump as a nominee for the Republican Party for President of the United States. So that's why Rubio? Also, to be honest, also, I have to be fair with him. He doesn't want to engage in useless, fruitless process. He described it himself as useless and fruitless because he doesn't trust the Iranians
- [23:15]
Thomas Small
one bit and never has. There's that incredible video from 2015 when he was speaking out against the JCPOA. Yes, pretty prophetic. Everything he said would happen has happened.
- [23:26]
Eamon
Exactly. And so he just. He is supportive of the war and to see the war all the way through. So Rubio is the war party. He is not, you know, J.D. vance, trying to, you know, let's contain this conflict. Let's get out of it. Like, I mean, so, no, he is not J.D. vance. So now, of course, he, you know, the oil went down, you know, and the prices were manipulated as usual. However, the Iranian Foreign Ministry immediately put out a statement saying, Excuse me, Mr. President, we are not coming to talk to you or anyone else. We are delivering the document and then leaving. Still the President insisting that, oh, they are saying this for their own audience, but they are begging us to talk. They are begging us to meet. Now, these words are never going to be believed ever again by anyone. You know, so all of this, they are begging, they are asking, whatever, it's all bullshit. It now has been exposed entirely as bullshit.
- [24:27]
Thomas Small
But also, Eamonn, going back to what you said before about how Trump has broken his own rules and has signaled his own desperation.
- [24:35]
Eamon
Yes.
- [24:36]
Thomas Small
Because clearly Iranians, the Iranian leaders, know that they're not desperate for a deal. They know that. So when they hear the President say it over and over again, they realize he's desperate for a deal. That's why he's saying this, which just exposes him to their manipulation because I
- [24:54]
Eamon
tell you something, because this will explain the content of the document. The advisor of Foreign affairs for the previous supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, Dr. Ali Akbar Wilayati, he was also his foreign minister when the Supreme Leader was the president in the 1980s during the war with Iraq. And now he is still retained as the advisor on Foreign affairs for the second Supreme Leader now, or the third, I would say Mustaba Khamenei. The degrees of separation between me and Dr. Ali Akbar Wilayati is only one person.
- [25:27]
Thomas Small
Aha. So this is someone you're in something like contact with. You have a good sense of this guy's mind?
- [25:32]
Eamon
Yes, I have a good sense of this guy's mind. And he was reported to have said just two weeks ago, he said it would be a shame for the entire Iranian nation. That The Taliban lasted 20 years against the Americans and in the end won. And we can't even last 20 weeks. I promise you, brothers, we should last 20 weeks because Trump cannot last 20 weeks. He have the midterm elections to come. If we last 20 weeks, we will gain far more gains than we had before the war. Just be patient. And the Iranian nations have abundance of this natural resource. Patience which Trump don't have, I promise you. Let's stay the course. He will not stay the course. We have resolve. He doesn't. Now, now that I have laid out the ground for what the foreign affairs advisor of the Supreme Leader said two weeks ago. Exactly. So now, the document bearing his seal and signature was delivered to Islamabad by Arakchi, you know, the foreign minister, and it was delivered the morning yesterday in Islamabad. Time. By 2pm Islamabad time, 1pm Dubai time, I had the content of the document. I'm not going to say how because, you know, it's, you know, I will put some people in trouble. So this is the content. Well, of course it started in the name of Allah, the most Merciful, the most Gracious, and then started by telling the President of the United States, Mr. Trump, you have waged a war of aggression against the Islamic Republic. You have killed and assassinated the Supreme Leader, a venerable pillar of the Iranian nation and the Muslim world. You have assassinated many of our ministers and commanders and officials. You have brought nothing but death and destruction upon our nation, its infrastructure, its wealth. And you engaged in piracy and sanctions before and after you killed Qasem Soleimani. And then it went on all the grievances listed against the US Whether imagined or perceived or real.
- [27:54]
Thomas Small
Most of them actually quite real, though obviously with their own slant.
- [27:57]
Eamon
Exactly. I mean, some of them are warranted, to be honest. It's not like the Islamic Republic are angels. Everyone knows between Trump and Ayatollah, I would rather have Trump at least is more entertaining. However, then they say, in the face of your illogical, irrational and out of context demands, we submit these demands. And they submitted 10 demands that were unbelievably insulting to the president and to any rational mind or even to logic itself.
- [28:34]
Thomas Small
Well, Eamon, we're going to take a quick break here and when we get back, you're going to enumerate these 10 illogical, irrational and insulting demands. And hopefully you can tell me your best bet on how Donald Trump met them. We'll be right back.
- [28:56]
Commercial Announcer
Starting or growing your own business can be intimidating and lonely at times. Your to do list may feel endless with new tasks and lists can easily begin to overrun your life. So finding the right tool that not only helps you out, but simplifies everything as a built in business partner can be a game changer for millions of businesses. That tool is Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e commerce in the US from household names like Gymshark, Rare Beauty and Heinz to brands just getting started. Shopify has hundreds of ready to use templates that can help you build a beautiful online store that matches your brand style. And you can tackle all the important tasks in one place, from inventory to payments to analytics and more. No need to save multiple websites or try to figure out what platform is hosting the tool that you need. And if people haven't heard about your brand, you can get the word out. Like you have a marketing team behind you with easy to run email and social media campaigns to reach customers wherever they're scrolling or strolling. Start your business today with the industry's best business partner, Shopify, and start hearing. Sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.com realm go to shopify.com realm that's shopify.com realm.
- [30:28]
Thomas Small
We're back. Okay, Ayman. The Supreme Leader, Darth Khamenei, from his. From his swanky apartment outside Islamabad where he's in hiding.
- [30:39]
Eamon
Maybe in Abbottabad.
- [30:41]
Thomas Small
Exactly. He's in Abbottabad being protected by the Pakistani security services. No, these are all jokes. So in his dark cave deep inside the Zagros Mountains or wherever, the Supreme Leader sends a letter with his own signature to Islamabad. His foreign minister, Iraq JI delivers it and then returns this letter, you say had 10 demands that were insulting to Donald Trump and certainly ran counter to all of his naive expectations. What were the demands?
- [31:15]
Eamon
Well, it's simple, first of all, is for Donald Trump to acknowledge the right of the Iranian nation to enrichment of uranium. So it's like, okay, it's like you're not going to back down on the enrichment of uranium. To acknowledge that the US Was the aggressor. To acknowledge. And this is where things are going to go wild with this. To acknowledge that the Iranian Islamic Republic will have a security jurisdiction over the Strait of Hormuz. That in itself was unbelievable. They went on, of course, to demand,
- [31:55]
Thomas Small
I mean, they went on to demand that America withdraw all of its military presence from the Middle East.
- [32:01]
Eamon
Exactly.
- [32:03]
Thomas Small
So I mean, they're telling America to surrender.
- [32:06]
Eamon
Exactly.
- [32:06]
Thomas Small
In their mind, they're going to erect a tent on Manhattan island and President Trump is gonna Come into that tent and surrender to them while they're smoking hookah and sipping Iranian tea. That's what I mean. Six weeks ago, Eamon, you said that that tent was gonna be on kharg and that they were gonna come with their begging bowls surrendering to Donald Trump. It seems like the tables have totally turned.
- [32:30]
Eamon
Well, you know, if there is anyone to blame, it's Donald Trump himself. Because you see even one of the demands which is like, like crazy. Apart from the reparations they want, of course. Reparations. They want removal of all the sanctions. Not gradual, but removal of all the sanctions. They want a complete suspension of the UN And International Atomic Energy Agency inspections. But the demand that really surprised me and flew out of the screen at me was Hezbollah and the other proxies are not going to disarm, and they are going to remain important, valuable allies of the Islamic Republic, especially Hezbollah, because they want Hezbollah to remain, you know, of course, a thorn at the side of Israel as a security against Israel and Israel's behavior in the future. And then on top of all of this, the sherry at the top of the cake, the last demand is that guarantees from both Israel and the US There will be no more wars of aggression anymore against the Islamic Republic. Hooray. Okay? General Asam Munir, when he saw that in the field Marshal of the Pakistani armed forces, when he saw that, he must have had a heart attack. His face during the talks said it. He looked sullen, faced. He looked as if he is attending a funeral. He is not enjoying any moment of it.
- [33:51]
Thomas Small
Well, he allowed himself to get played by the Iranians. Goodness gracious. Amon. Let's talk about Trump's reaction in one second. First, what does this tell us? What do these 10 demands tell us about the leadership of the Islamic Republic's self image right now? We have been told for weeks that the Israeli US Attacks against Iran totally decimated so much of their ability to wage war, a lot of their infrastructure, etc. The leadership was obviously decapitated many times over. And yet they must feel very strong or something to basically say openly now, we will concede nothing. You will concede everything. Not us. You. They must be feeling strong and confident. You said that they feel patient. They're willing to be patient. They think the Americans will just give up or something. But maybe the amount of devastation that they withstood in the opening salvos of this war has been exaggerated and they're not as weak as we think.
- [34:57]
Eamon
Well, look, let me be clear here. I'm not going to give up yet on President Trump doing the right thing at the end of the day, and that he will actually continue with both the blockade and a resumption of hostilities aimed at even reducing further the ability of the Islamic Republic and the IRGC to inflict damage on the region and, of course, on the global economy through the choking of the Hormon Strait. I am still of the opinion that in the end, he will see that the Iranian regime believe that they have more patients than he does and that they have more cars than he does, and that by outlasting his patients and his intolerance for a long conflict, then they can win. So he might think that, no, no, no, I'm going to turn the tables on them. I'm going to show them who's boss here. I'm going to force open the Strait of Hormuz. I'm going to decimate whatever left of their ballistic missile and drone capabilities and small boats and mining capability in the straight of Hormuz. I do believe still have a hope that he will do that, but let's be also realistic and take into account that maybe he will taco. And if he does taco here, what does it mean for the rest of the region, and what does it mean for the Islamic Republic itself?
- [36:34]
Thomas Small
Those are great questions. Let's hold them for the end. I'll bring you back to them. But first, let's continue. So when Donald Trump got that letter from the Supreme Leader of Iran, how did he react? One thing that happened is, and this was bliss, as far as I'm concerned, he went uncommonly silent for several hours, 18 hours, which was useful, I think, for the whole world.
- [36:58]
Eamon
18 hours silent.
- [37:00]
Thomas Small
So he was nursing a bruised ego, possibly.
- [37:03]
Eamon
He was shouting and screaming at his officials and aides. He was, I was told, like, I mean, in great confidence that he was shouting and screaming at them because that wasn't what he expected. And then it became very clear he was humiliated, you know, and he went on then later to say, while he was leaving Miami, going back to D.C. he said, they sent a letter which was falling short of what we demanded. And then I canceled the trip of Wyckoff and Kushner. But then 10 minutes later, they sent me another letter, which was far better, but still not good enough. There was no second letter. That was a lie, by the way. That was an absolute, total, utter lie.
- [37:48]
Thomas Small
You know, Donald Trump's capacity to live in a fantasy land of his own making, his narcissistic, inflationary ego, is just. It's a massive problem it's getting in the way. You know, I know, Eamon, that you are, you know, aware of the way U.S. intelligence and U.S. military leadership think about things. You know, you're aware of that. I understand that before the 28th of February, when the President basically, I guess, ordered them to prepare the grounds for a military assault on Iran, they came to him and they did say to him, well, you do know, sir, that of the many reactions open to the IRGC is closing the Strait of Hormuz, mining it, whatever, they are likely to do this. And he just said, I don't think so, or pretended not to hear and ordered the launch anyway. And then lo and behold, they did close the Strait of Hormuz. And he reacted like that, like angry, almost like, why did nobody tell me? But they had told him. So there people are dealing with not, you know, maybe like a madman, you know, someone who's not very, very interested in remaining on the ground and facing reality. So that's also what happened when he got the letter from the Supreme Leader, he just kind of invented another letter. He's shouting and screaming, nursing a bruised ego. I mean, it's. This is not encouraging, Eamon.
- [39:19]
Eamon
It is not encouraging at all. But I do hope that his cabinet officials, his military officials will put some sense into his mind that, look, sir, we have the jugular of the global economy is being choked by the irgc. We need to do something drastic about it right now because even the Iranians are not even giving us the ability to walk away. We can't even walk away from this. Even if you want to walk away, sir, you can't, because they control and are choking the strait. Because even if you walk away, they will immediately occupy the rest of the strait and they will just continue to charge $2 million on each passing ship. And they will be selective with which ships can pass. And then the Saudis, the Emiratis and the Kuwaitis are not going to export along with the Qataris, one single drop of oil, one single drop of liquefied natural gas, one single gram of petrochemicals, including fertilizers, which are important for the global agricultural economy. 30% of the world agrinutrients come from the GCC. So we have a crisis and he need to step up. He need to step up. Forget about truth social for a minute. Or shall I call it like basically lies, total instead of true social.
- [40:43]
Thomas Small
So let's talk about the GCC quickly. I mean, you told us about the phone call between Jared Kushner and a GCC leader. But more generally, the GCC leadership, at least those leaders of those GCC countries that are allied with the United States and even with Israel and share with those parties a desire to see the Islamic Republic be you know, changed at the very least. But not all GCC countries seem to be aligned like that. We'll talk about the others in a second. But the ones that are aligned with the us, Saudi, the Emirates, Bahrain, what do they think about this President now? I mean, a few months ago you were very clear. They knew his weaknesses, but in general they were like, better Trump than Biden. Trump is better than the alternative. But I wonder if they're beginning to question that assessment. And they might be really, really frustrated with this guy.
- [41:37]
Eamon
I mean, they are frustrated, but they haven't lost faith. Let me put it this way, talking to everyone. They are frustrated, but they haven't lost their faith in him. Where the frustration come from? The frustration come from. Look, why don't you just put a coalition together? But he doesn't want to put a coalition together because if he does, that will become a proper war, which he has to go to Congress and ask for approval. If it is a coalition also, that will give the impression that the war is getting out of control. And if there is a coalition, and that's the most important thing, he can't run the war entirely according to his own mindset. So he is enjoying the fact that he is running the war based on his true social posts and dictating the terms like, I mean, from his toilet seats while he's typing on the, on the keyboard. And that's why I'm saying that this is where the GCC was frustrated. They want to be part of the process, part of the planning, part of the execution of the conflict because they are being hit by 6,000 missiles and drones. Their economies are being choked by the closure of Hormuz. And the President is sometimes enforcing the blockade, sometime is letting it slip through to allow for that beautiful, wonderful, sweet, lovely deal that the Iranians are begging for, which is not true. And that is what frustrating them.
- [43:10]
Thomas Small
Pathetic. Pathetic. Pathetic. Oh, America, how the mighty have fallen. Honestly, what about not yet?
- [43:17]
Eamon
Not yet. I still have faith.
- [43:19]
Thomas Small
I have none. I am Mr. Pessimist at the moment, Eamon, and I'm American, okay? I grew up, you know, Ronald Reagan was president. He had his detractors. But I think most people would give their left testicle to have Ronald Reagan back at the White House right now. People would rather have Nixon in the White House right now. People would rather have Anyone at the moment, I think, than this guy who is driving us all mad. But what about the other GCC states? I mean, let's call a spade a spade a state like Oman. Like what are they doing? They must have read the tea leaves. You're reading the tea leaves. Amen. Lots of people are reading the tea leaves. They are also reading the tea leaves. Oman have very deep, long established relations with Iran. They have information, intel, very vital intel. They will have a presence there that other countries don't have. They're reading the tea leaves and clearly they think Iran is going to win this war. They are going to emerge more powerful than before. So we have to prepare for that. We have to be nice to them, we have to facilitate what they need facilitating or whatever. So those GCC states that aren't so much on America's side, what are they thinking?
- [44:31]
Eamon
Well, we have what we call the four solid GCC which is Saudi, Kuwait, UAE and Bahrain. We have the one foot inside, one foot outside, which is Qatar and we have the nominal GCC member, which is Oman. Oman generally is a peace loving nation. They don't like to engage in any conflict with anyone. They like to think of themselves as the neutral Switzerland of the Middle east. And they have maintained that posture for 50 years. And so I don't have anything to say against them or against their stance. Are they confident that Iran will win? One Omani official once told me, he said, look man, you remember the Arabic saying that a sane enemy is better than an idiot friend. And I more or less understood what he said. I mean a sane enemy is better than an idiot friend. He meant that the sane enemy is Iran and the idiot friend is Trump. However, I just reminded the official, I said, actually we have a idiot friend and an insane enemy and between them we are stuck. My dear friend, the enemy is eschatologically driven, ideologically charged and illogical, irrational in its decision making process, which is the IRGC and the Islamic Republic. And we have a president who fights a war to possibly enrich himself or his members of family. Although I do believe what Jared said, maybe to some extent.
- [46:29]
Thomas Small
Ever the diplomat, Eamonn, I'm very impressed.
- [46:31]
Eamon
Yeah, but also to manipulate the market and fight according to what Wall street dictates and doesn't want to have a coalition of countries. So he doesn't lose that ability to dictate terms at 100% level. So he will have to cede 10, 15, 20% of the decision making to countries in the region as to how the war should be executed and conducted. I mean, look, I still believe, I still believe that the Iranians are now basically up to their usual delaying tactics. Do you remember when I told you before that in the 12 April peace talks between JD Vance and Golubov where the Iranian delegation came with 168 proposals? Remember we talked about it before in the episode?
- [47:25]
Thomas Small
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [47:26]
Eamon
168 folders they've wrote. It's all about overwhelming the other side with proposals and establishing committees for these proposals and dragging you for years as if it was the WTO negotiations. However, then it became the delaying tactic. Well, we have to go and talk to the Supreme Leader. So they milked it all the way to the end and then delivered there. They delivered a document that was like a stunning gesture towards Trump. And now what they are doing, they went to Islamabad, they went to Oman. In Oman they met with the head of the intelligence for the Pakistani military, the isi, the head of the mit, the Turkish military, and they met also with a senior Russian intelligence operative and as well met with the Omani Foreign Ministry and the Sultan of Oman himself, His Majesty Sultan Haitham. And then they are going to Moscow, they are coming back. So what they are doing now is that they are now building a coalition that includes Egypt, by the way, even Egypt is being drafted into this. They are building a coalition of mediators. The idea now is to charge the US with not 168 proposals but with five major channels of communications, Pakistan, Oman, Turkey, Egypt and Russia. It's like overwhelming the US side in order to delay and delay and delay. And the problem is there should be on the side of Trump, Saudi should be by his side by now. The UAE should be fully by his side. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, they should be on his side completely, but they are not because he is not sharing even his plans. For example, if a war is about to happen and the strikes are about to happen in 20 minutes, this is when he will pick up the phone to MBS and MBZ and say you have 20 minutes, be ready. That is the problem with him is the fact that he shut out the GCC from any decision making process in this even though they are paying the heaviest price. And this is because he want to conduct a war according to his own reality and according to his mindset and according to how much someone is going to make on the stock market from the manipulation of the oil prices by putting out these posts on lies.
- [49:54]
Thomas Small
Total well Eamonn, last night, east coast time at 8:35pm so that's Saturday, April 25th, President Trump was attending the White House Correspondents dinner in Washington D.C. and a 31 year old male from California, of course, armed with a shotgun, a handgun and carrying multiple knives on his person, attempted to sort of break through a Secret Service security checkpoint in the lobby of the Washington Hilton Hotel where the event was being held. Shots were fired during this confrontation and President Trump, his wife, the Vice President, several cabinet members were evacuated by Secret Service. So Donald Trump survived yet another assassination attempt yesterday. I think that's his fourth, you said maybe his fifth when we were talking before then, you know, I forget. But let's play a little game, Eamon. God forbid the assassination attempt had succeeded not only in killing President Trump. God forbid, I say, I would never wish such a thing. Imagine it happened though. President Trump and indeed the Vice President Vance, they're both killed. And through some mechanism, Marco Rubio becomes President of the United States. He picks up the phone to the Pentagon and he tells them, okay, no more fooling around boys. Finish the job. What would the United States military actually do? Because something else I'm very pessimistic about now is their ability, the United States and Israel's ability, even with the GCC countries supporting them, to defeat the Islamic Republic militarily. I'm actually pessimistic about this.
- [51:55]
Eamon
You don't need to defeat them militarily. What you need to do is to break their resolve. And you do that by making them lose every possible tool that they could use in their war waging efforts. You take away hormones from them straight away by whatever means, hook or crook.
- [52:18]
Thomas Small
But okay, let me just stop you immediately because I understand that the Iranians have mined Hormuz more in the last 48 hours. Apparently there were these underwater drones they were going to send out. The Americans were going to send out to destroy the mines. Doesn't seem like that's happened. There are more mines or maybe it did happen and they're replacing the destroyed mines. I don't know what's going on there, but you know, it's not easy. What would the American military do, let's say the first three steps, what would they be, do you think?
- [52:49]
Eamon
While it's not that simple, the strategy should focus on taking out all the small boats. You can use the A10s, these flying tanks with their depleted uranium machine guns, the massive machine guns mounted at the front of these planes. You can take out the small boats that are used to mine the strait and to harass the shipping. So you go out and take them, you destroy the ports of Shabahar, Bandra Abbas, and all the smaller military and naval bases. You take these ports out, you take the docks out, and then you start the process of going after their drones, drone factories. You go after their ballistic missiles and ballistic missile factories. You go after what we call the missile cities. You start systematically dismantling their capability to wage war. And then after that, you go after the IRGC commanders and leaders. You go after their telecommunication capability, you go after their cars, you go after their residences, you go after their meetings, places. You just make life so difficult for them that they lose the ability not only to wage war, but to govern effectively until actually the whole house of cards begin to crumble and collapse. And I know it's going to be a long process until they actually raise the white flag and say, yeah, you know what, maybe now is the time to talk, let's talk. Because at some point they will fear that every gain of the revolution is at stake. Trump did not push them into that stage. He was really, really pushing them into that stage. He was waiting it for six weeks almost. If he continued for another six, they would have raised the white flag and said, let's talk. We can have a talk about it. Especially if he were to destroy the ability and capability in the hormones strait. But the reality is, Thomas, he did not have enough capacity and forces in the region. He, I think, started the war prematurely. If he waited until April, let's say, he would have the three carriers, he would have 600 fighter jets, which is what we have right now in the region. He would have had more interceptors, air defense. He would have studied and gathered more intelligence on the irgc, their commanders, their command structure, their capabilities, their locations, their headquarters, their missile cities, and then wage the war and get a coalition of countries with you. But he did not.
- [55:48]
Thomas Small
Well, you advocated early on, before the war, that America should not target the political leadership, but instead should focus on entirely and only on the IRGC as a terrorist organization. That was your preferred strategy. You advocated that at some point the White House took the decision, and I think they were influenced by the Israelis in this. We are going to adopt a political leadership decapitation strategy. And that I think governed when the war began because the CIA man who had infiltrated the former Supreme Leader's inner circle just said, look, this is it. This is the time, let's do it. And so the war started on 28 February instead of 6, 7, 8 weeks later when more military assets were prepared. I think that's what happened. And it's, I guess, A shame, in my opinion.
- [56:44]
Eamon
I think if they let the all Supreme Leader live and they just started killing his children. I'm talking about his offspring. I'm talking about the IRGC commanders, the first tier, second tier, third tier, going after them one after another. They are his kids. They are his children in his eyes. They are the several generations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard core fanatics that he raised himself. If they started doing that, at some point, he himself will just cry out loud, stop. What do you want for this war to stop? Because he doesn't want to lose that. But the problem is they have taken away the decision maker who would have cried tears of blood on the corpses of the very body that he created and cherished for four and a half decades. So maybe Trump and the Israelis should have waited another six weeks for the entire proper force to be there in order to properly prevent the closure of the Strait and then take out the irgc. Focus on the IRGC only, nothing else.
- [58:10]
Thomas Small
Well, the strait is closed. It will remain closed for several weeks.
- [58:15]
Eamon
You think more than that. More than that.
- [58:17]
Thomas Small
Nonetheless, America now does have the assets in the region. Three aircraft carrier groups. They've, I mean, I think they've replenished a lot of the stockpiles of.
- [58:26]
Eamon
Yeah.
- [58:27]
Thomas Small
Of missiles and interceptors that they had. That they had lost. So, you know, if Trump just says, okay, screw it, let's go back, let's start again, why wouldn't they be able to open the strait right away?
- [58:38]
Eamon
They can. And I hope, I was told that he doesn't even want to go after the IRGC anymore. He just want to go and clear the strait. His entire strategy now is going to be directed at the strait. Get the strait under control and under US Control. So I think this is the most likely outcome we will see. I think resumption of hostilities could happen within a week. So maybe by the Sunday next, you know, in seven days when we are recording this episode, we will be talking about the resumption of hostilities, and it will focus more or less on the Strait of Hormuz.
- [59:22]
Thomas Small
Well, it does seem to bear out what a lot of critics of the war were saying, that the war did not begin over the Strait of Hormuz. As you yourself have said, Eamon, the Strait of Hormuz was open, not closed. So now Trump finds himself in the position of waging a war to open the Strait of Hormuz, which was open. So it's just a sign that this war has been prosecuted extremely badly from the American side. And it's annoying as Hell. Okay, well that's it for this week. I mean, goodness gracious, one day I do want to talk about the other kind of theaters in this conflict. Theaters that go under discussed Iraq more than any other place. Iraq is a tinderbox. Ayman. Iran's militias in the country are, you know, they are attacking, they've attacked Kuwait, they've attacked Saudi, they've attacked American bases in Iraq. And if the war resumes. When it resumes, because honestly it's going to resume. There is no other option at this stage.
- [60:23]
Eamon
Exactly. The fundamentals for the war to resume are there.
- [60:26]
Thomas Small
When America turns up the pressure again, the Islamic Republic will have no choice but to turn up the pressure, whatever pressure valves they still have. And that means the Iraqi militias. It means the Houthis. Less so has Hezbollah because that's a whole other situation at the moment. And Israel's there, but nonetheless Hezbollah. So. But I think Iraq is to going, going to become very, very, very important in the next three, four, five months. That's my feeling. Eamon, do you agree?
- [60:54]
Eamon
I agree totally, utterly. It's going to be one of the theaters.
- [60:57]
Thomas Small
So we're going to talk about Iraq soon, dear listeners. We're going to keep telling you about this mind destroying war. Thank you, Eamon. I know my heart bleeds for the whole damn region. Eamon, and I'm sorry that you are caught between an insane enemy and an idiot friend. I'm sorry indeed. I can only apologize on behalf of my. My beloved homeland. Oh Lord. Okay, that's it. Thank you dear listeners.
- [61:26]
Eamon
Thank you dear listeners and stay safe and stay sane.
- [61:29]
Thomas Small
Conflicted is a message heard Production. Our executive producers are Jake Warren and Max Warren. This episode was produced and edited by Thomas Small.
- [61:48]
Commercial Announcer
Get a jump on next summer with vrbo's early booking deals. Don't wait to claim your dream summer spot, whether that includes a good porch swing or a poolside lounger. When you book early, you get the best places at the best prices. But back to poolside loungers. With vrbo, you don't have to reserve any loungers. They're all yours. In fact, the whole private home is yours. Book with early booking deals and you can lounge around all summer long. However you please. Book with VRBox.