CONFLICTED Podcast Summary

Episode: The Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island: How America Intends to Win This War
Date: March 17, 2026
Hosts: Aimen Dean (Ex-Al Qaeda jihadi, MI6 spy), Thomas Small (Former monk, filmmaker)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the strategic, historical, and contemporary significance of the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg Island. Against the backdrop of the ongoing Middle East war, Aimen and Thomas chart the roots of today's conflict in centuries-old power struggles over this vital waterway. The discussion ranges from ancient flood myths and shifting demographics to present-day U.S. military tactics and broader geopolitical implications. The ongoing conflict’s parallels with history and the enduring influence of geography are core themes, with particular focus on how America intends to “win” by controlling these choke points and pressuring Iran.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Recent Developments and Setting the Stage

• War Update & Notable Assassination
  • The episode opens with news of Ali Larijani’s assassination ([00:57]).
    • “Oh, yeah, my bro Larry. He's dead now. Oh, dear bro Larry. See you in hell.” – Aimen ([01:11])
    • Thomas emphasizes humane perspective, Aimen retorts on the morality of celebrating the death of the inhumane ([01:26]).
• Speculation over Mojtaba Khamenei
  • Discussion quickly alludes to Iran’s internal power vacuum and messianic symbolism ([02:30]), but hosts pivot to focus on geography.

2. Deep Historical Context: Why the Strait Matters

• Geology and Flood Myths

  • Thomas describes how the Gulf’s flooding may have inspired ancient flood myths, connecting geography and culture ([04:40]–[07:10]).
    • “Some scholars suggest that maybe, just maybe this experience of the slow flooding... might be what is, you know, culturally remembered in the story of Noah's flood.” – Thomas ([06:36])

• Demographic and Cultural Blending

  • Both hosts stress the Gulf’s centuries-old mix of Arab and Iranian cultures, with shared influences across music, food, and language ([13:41]).

• The Long Cycle of Rivalries

  • The strategic fight over Hormuz and the wider Gulf is presented as ancient and recurring—the past is prologue to the present ([08:22], [16:01], [30:04]).
    • “This is as old as time and we're seeing it now, but it's not new.” – Thomas, after recounting historical massacres and power shifts ([30:04])

• Geography as Destiny

  • The episode repeatedly cites historian Ian Morris and the axiom “geography is destiny” ([08:58]).

3. Key Historical Episodes

• Medieval Power Shifts:
  • From Buyid/Buwayhid, Omani, to Mongol-Safavid rules—Hormuz’s rulers have shifted as the Iranian plateau swings between strength and chaos ([09:40]–[12:41]).
  • Arabs, Persians, and other groups all claim legacy and influence over these regions ([12:57]-[14:28]).
• Colonial Competition:
  • Portuguese, English, and Dutch all sought to dominate the strait ([21:36]–[25:22]); local powers maintained alliances as advantageous.
    • “Local power players in the Gulf to this day are allied with Western powers because it is mutually advantageous.” – Thomas ([21:36])
• The ‘Red Wedding’ of Barka:
  • The 1744 massacre (slaughter of Persians by Omani Arabs) as the origin story for Oman’s Al Bu Said dynasty ([28:36]–[30:04]).
• Kharg Island’s Strategic Rise:
  • Its fresh water sources, Christian monasteries, occupation by Dutch and Arabs, and eventual role as Iran’s oil export hub ([30:54]–[36:26]).

4. Modern Strategic Calculus: The Current War

• American Contingency Planning
  • The U.S. military thoroughly anticipated Iranian closure tactics for the strait, successfully neutralizing most direct threats early ([42:51]):
    • Sinking tankers as barriers—averted.
    • Massed speedboats—destroyed.
    • Mine-laying—mostly disrupted ([45:14]–[47:49]).
    • “They are not basically going to go into a battle unless [they] have rehearse and rehearse and rehearse and rehearse.” – Aimen ([42:51])
• Persistent Drone Threat
  • Remaining menace is Iranian ‘soft closure’ via drones (small, hard-to-track, and can attack tankers, raising insurance costs and risk of catastrophic oil spills) ([47:49]–[51:25]).
• Psychological and Demographic Factors
  • Iran, with fewer citizens on the Gulf coast, views the Gulf as expendable compared to the dense Arab urban centers ([51:25]).
    • “They feel that it's the Arabs who will hurt far worse than us, therefore keep attacking, and they don't care if there is a major oil spillage.” – Aimen ([53:26])
• Bypassing the Strait
  • Decades of planning led to alternatives:
    • Pipelines in Saudi Arabia (Petroline/East-West Line, 7 million bpd capacity, [54:33]–[57:19]),
    • Port of Fujairah,
    • Pipeline investments.
    • “We have invested billions upon billions of dollars to build alternatives to save us, not from your smartness, but from your idiocy.” – Aimen ([56:28])
• Yemeni & Houthi Factor
  • Potential escalation by the Houthis could threaten Red Sea shipping; Saudis are better positioned for a decisive response ([57:19]–[61:29]).

5. Kharg Island and U.S. Military Plans

• Purpose of Capturing Kharg Island
  • Kharg is Iran’s main export terminal; America plans to take it to choke Iran’s oil revenue and leverage terms ([61:29]–[66:28]):
    • U.S. Marines are en route and could capture it with little resistance ([62:56]–[63:47]).
    • Risks of holding it are outweighed by U.S./allied air supremacy and technology ([63:47]–[65:38]).
    • The island could become the literal site of Iranian surrender negotiations.
      • “They will take something dear to Iran and they will only return it once there is, you know, basically a visible victory...” – Aimen ([66:28])
• International Response and Friction
  • Trump/Biden expects more allied naval participation; most opt for indirect support (air cover, antimissile tech), prioritizing arms contracts and risk calculus ([66:28]–[73:23]).
  • Memorable moment:
    • “President Trump and the US Military... will be bringing a nice ceremonial tent... to prepare basically for this table to be the site for the signing of the surrender of Iran.” – Aimen ([66:28])

6. Outlook, Media Analysis, and Core Takeaways

• Optimism About U.S.-Israeli Position
  • Despite drone nuisance, Aimen foresees an American victory, with Iran ultimately forced to accept tough terms, though only after a protracted attritional phase ([74:48]–[78:56]).
    • “At some point something is going to give... we can start to see the cracks in that dam. It's a dam and it's cracking.” – Aimen ([78:56])
• Critique of Western Media
  • Both hosts rail against Western media’s superficial, anxiety-provoking coverage—contrasting it with their insider, contextualized knowledge ([78:56]–[83:48]):
    • “Unless I'm talking to you, buddy, I just have to rely on the goddamn mainstream media and... they're stoking anxieties, they're creating a misconception...” – Thomas ([78:56])
• Historical Parallels & the Imperial World Order
  • The ongoing war is interpreted as the latest in a centuries-long series of imperial interventions to maintain stability and trade—presented as necessary “imperial wars of self-defense” ([80:39]–[86:36])
    • “What we're actually seeing for the first time in a long time is an old fashioned imperial war.” – Thomas ([80:39])
    • The war, according to Aimen, was inevitable given the long-established red lines and the events post-October 7th ([83:48]–[87:44]).
    • The U.S. (as hegemon inheriting from Portuguese, Dutch, English) is seen defending the global order against Iran, the latest “resistance” upstart. ([83:48]–[86:36])

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Geography is destiny.” – A recurring refrain, summarizing the episode’s thesis ([08:58], [14:28])
• “This is as old as time and we're seeing it now, but it's not new.” – Thomas ([30:04])
• “They are not going to go into a battle unless they have rehearse and rehearse and rehearse and rehearse.” – Aimen ([42:51])
• “At the end of the day, there are lines drawn in the sand for the leaders of the Islamic Republic. And when they crossed it on 7 October... this war was ordained.” – Aimen ([86:36])
• “This is just the next round of an ever Turning Wheel.” – Thomas ([87:44])

Key Segment Timestamps

• [01:11] – Announcement & reaction to Larijani’s death.
• [04:40]–[08:22] – Geological and historical deep-dive on the Gulf.
• [12:41]–[14:28] – Demographics, shared history and cultural blending.
• [28:36]–[30:04] – “Red Wedding” of Barka and Omani dynasty’s rise.
• [36:26]–[38:18] – Kharg Island’s transition to oil export hub.
• [40:34]–[53:26] – Detailed analysis of U.S./Iran tactics for the Strait of Hormuz.
• [54:33]–[57:19] – Alternative routes (pipelines, Fujairah) and strategic investments.
• [61:29]–[66:28] – Kharg Island: its current strategic role; U.S. plans.
• [66:28]–[73:23] – International friction, arms sales, and allied support.
• [74:48]–[87:44] – Prognosis, historical reflection, and the case for seeing today’s events as a continuation of centuries-old imperial logic.

Conclusion & Closing Tone

The hosts conclude by urging listeners to view current events not as unprecedented catastrophes but as a “new round of an ever Turning Wheel” ([87:44]). The continuity of historical and geographical realities, rather than sensational media narratives, should define our understanding of this critical region and conflict.

For listeners seeking clarity behind headlines, this episode provides a rich, often darkly humorous, and powerfully contextualized account of how the centuries-old war for the Strait of Hormuz is being fought—and why, fundamentally, very little has changed.