Conflicted Podcast: When Will Iran Play the Houthi Card?
Date: March 24, 2026
Host: Thomas Small
Guest: Nadwa Al-Dawsari (Researcher and Conflict Analyst, Middle East Institute, Washington D.C.)
Overview
In this special episode of Conflicted, host Thomas Small is joined by Middle East conflict analyst Nadwa Al-Dawsari. With co-host Aimen Dean called away for secret business, Thomas and Nadwa dive deeply into Yemen's tribal dynamics, the nature of the Houthi movement, their relationship to Iran, and the broader regional implications amid developing conflict between the US, Iran, and the so-called Axis of Resistance. They also reflect on Western policy failures, the trajectory of Yemen's war, and where things might be heading next.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Setting the Stage: Current Red Sea Crisis & Regional Tension
- (00:41) Thomas reviews the latest dramatic developments: President Trump threatens Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, US troops arrive in the region, media confusion around negotiations between the US and Iran, uncertainty about Iran’s leadership, and speculation about possible regime change.
- Focus shifts to Yemen, often overlooked in the global conversation but “crucial” to understanding the bigger regional picture.
Who is Nadwa Al-Dawsari?
- (05:00) Nadwa shares her background: from urban and tribal roots in Yemen, her move to the US in 2012, long-standing involvement in peacebuilding, tribal conflict resolution, and advocacy against Western stereotypes of Yemen.
- She stresses her in-depth work on the Houthis and cross-regional links stretching to the Horn of Africa.
Understanding Yemen’s Tribal System
- (06:48 - 17:34) A comprehensive discussion of Yemeni tribal structures dispels Western misconceptions:
- Tribes function as egalitarian social units, not rigid political entities.
- Tribal leaders act mainly as arbitrators or judges; authority is social, not autocratic.
- The system is governed by “a social contract,” emphasizing peace, harmony, collective over individual interests.
- Tribal judgment is recognized by Yemen’s formal legal system—arbitrators’ verdicts are legally binding.
- Tribal society upholds communal values and is surprisingly effective at maintaining stability, even in war.
- (21:53) “Tribes are the main reason Yemeni society is resilient against groups like Al Qaeda.” – Nadwa
- The struggle with the state and political parties has sometimes destabilized, rather than improved, tribal order.
The Houthis: Cult, Ideology, and Power
- (27:50 - 41:30) Thomas and Nadwa break down the Houthi movement:
- Origins: Emerged from Zaydi religious revivalism and subsequent militant conflict.
- Structure: A small, ideologically hardcore “death cult” (31:08), surrounded by a larger network of affiliates who benefit materially or through positions of power.
- Beliefs: Rooted in a Zaydi supremacist tradition asserting natural/divine right to rule; now fused with Iranian revolutionary transnational vision.
- Leadership: Abd al-Malik al-Houthi is seen within the inner sanctum as “the Mahdi,” infallible and destined to lead the march on Mecca, Medina, and Jerusalem.
- (39:12) “He is Masoom. He doesn’t make mistakes...They believe that he is Al Mahdi, who’s destined to march his armies into Mecca and Medina.” – Nadwa
- Cult Dynamics: Internal legitimacy comes from “miracle-like” survival and victories (however pyrrhic), fueling messianic resolve. Survival itself is defined as victory.
- IRGC and Hezbollah are embedded at core decision-making levels; Houthi command structure modeled after Hezbollah’s systems.
Suppression, Indoctrination, & Recruitment
- (43:51-49:57) The Houthis’ control is built on repression, economic manipulation, and systematic indoctrination:
- Ruthless suppression of tribal structures: assassinations, home demolitions, forced conscription.
- Recruitment exploits poverty and hunger; food baskets exchanged for sons, with children systematically indoctrinated in schools and “summer camps.”
- (45:16) “They have a very rigorous mobilization and recruitment system...They use schools now.” – Nadwa
- Hostility to tribes stems from their inherent resistance to ideology and historic opposition to inherited privilege.
Houthi-Iran Link: Smuggling, Weapons & Proxies
- (54:02-62:47) Despite military pressure (Prosperity Guardian, Rough Rider), the Houthis’ capabilities remain robust:
- Supported by a supply web stretching from Iran via the Horn of Africa, with growing collaboration with Al Shabaab (Somalia) and even AQAP (contrary to expectations).
- (58:02) “The Houthis and AQAP have been collaborating as early as 2016...provided both Al Shabaab and Al Qaeda with drones.” – Nadwa
- Smuggling routes are virtually impossible to shut down—Western interdiction catches 1 in 100 ships (64:53).
- Russian and Chinese tech support: satellite imagery, targeting data, and even sending Houthi fighters to Ukraine.
- (59:00) “Russia has provided the Houthis with technology...China…with satellite images to target ships in the Red Sea.” – Nadwa
- Supported by a supply web stretching from Iran via the Horn of Africa, with growing collaboration with Al Shabaab (Somalia) and even AQAP (contrary to expectations).
Why Haven’t the Houthis Fully Joined the Regional War?
- (61:11-69:14) Decisive Houthi action is ultimately controlled by the IRGC; their role as Iran’s “strategic asset” makes them too valuable to spend recklessly.
- Internal IRGC debates about how/when Houthis should act.
- “All the more reason for Iran to preserve the Houthis...They are Iran’s finest strategic assets...” (62:47) – Nadwa
- The Houthi arsenal, morale, and strategic posture are warming up—missile positioning, sea mines, build-up on the Saudi border—yet ultimate intervention will be calibrated for maximum narrative effect, not outright open war unless Iran directs.
The Rump State Scenario: Yemen as IRGC Hideout
- (63:12-64:53) If the Iranian regime collapses in Tehran, senior IRGC figures may retreat to Yemen’s mountainous north, mirroring medieval “Assassin” survival strategy.
- Yemen’s geography and state weakness make it ideal for a “shadow caliphate/smuggling hub.”
The Saudi Response and Role of the Yemeni Government
- (65:53-72:50) Saudi Arabia’s “patient camel” approach explained: slow to move, playing all cards before acting forcefully.
- The Yemeni government and tribal elements hate the Houthis, but have lacked Saudi support/military capability, partially due to Western & UN pressure.
- (70:24) “Every force in the south and in Yemen is motivated to fight the Houthis...the Saudis and the Yemeni government are now focused on restructuring the forces…they all want to dislodge the Houthis.” – Nadwa
Western Policy: Failures, Naïvete, and Unintended Consequences
- (72:50-79:54) Nadwa and Thomas critique the Western anti-war “cult” and policy circles:
- “The people who influence decision making in the west, in particular the US but also in Europe, are anti-war activists...They totally dismiss that Iran and the Houthis...have an ideology...Their agenda is imperialist.” (74:50) – Nadwa
- Stockholm Agreement (2018) was a “strategic mistake” (55:21), halting a government offensive that might have ended Houthi dominance—and foreshadowed later Red Sea disruption.
- Westerners see regional actors only as reactionary, ignoring their proactive, expansionist agendas.
- Naive faith in peace at any cost accelerates long-term instability.
- (76:37) “The absence of war is not the presence of justice necessarily.” – Thomas
- The longer decisive action is delayed, the bigger the eventual “cost.”
Memorable Quotes & Moments
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On Tribalism vs. Ideology:
- (36:29) “People look at the Houthis from a pragmatic lens...This group is ideological to the core.” – Nadwa
- (25:12) “Tribes in Yemen are heavily armed...but you rarely hear about violence in tribal areas...There are very strict tribal laws.” – Nadwa
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On Western Policy:
- (74:50) “They interpret Iran’s and the Houthis’…actions as a reaction to what America and Israel have been doing. But they totally dismiss that Iran and the Houthis…have their own imperialist vision.” – Nadwa
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On the Houthi-Iran Nexus:
- (62:47) “The Houthis are Iran’s finest strategic assets with the most potential than all Axis of Resistance allies combined.” – Nadwa
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On the Cost of Inaction:
- (79:47) “The longer we...wait, the cost will be even more so. Right now, the cost of military intervention in Iran is high. If we wait...can you imagine Iran having a nuclear weapon?” – Nadwa
Important Timestamps for Key Segments
| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|---------| | 00:41 | Latest crisis recap: threats, deployments, confusion around Iran | | 05:00 | Nadwa’s personal and professional background | | 06:48–17:34 | Deep dive: how Yemeni tribal systems operate | | 27:50 | Overview of the Houthi movement and ideology | | 31:08 | “The Houthis are a cult.” – Nadwa | | 39:12 | The Houthis believe Abd al-Malik is the Mahdi | | 43:51 | IRGC and Hezbollah control within Houthi command | | 45:16 | Houthi recruitment and child indoctrination | | 54:16 | Effects of US and Saudi-led military operations | | 58:02 | Houthi-AQAP-Al Shabaab collaboration revelation | | 59:00 | Russia and China support the Houthis technologically | | 62:47 | On preserving Houthis as Iran’s ace card | | 63:12 | Scenario: IRGC’s fallback to Yemen post-regime-collapse | | 65:53 | Saudi policy as “patient camel” explained | | 70:24 | Will the Yemeni government fight the Houthis? | | 72:50 | Western policy critique, Stockholm Agreement mistake | | 79:47 | On rising cost of inaction versus military intervention |
Tone and Language
The episode oscillates between the analytic and the conversational, often wry or sardonic (Thomas’s style), and candid, sometimes passionate—especially as Nadwa describes the failings of Western policymakers and the grim realities of life under Houthi rule. There is a persistent frustration at simplistic Western narratives juxtaposed against the multidimensional, ideological, and strategic complexity on the ground.
Conclusion
This episode offers a hard-hitting, expert, and “off leash” (03:52) account of why the Yemen conflict is central to understanding broader Middle Eastern dynamics, the true nature of the Houthi movement, and the dangers of naive Western peacemaking. While the immediate future hinges on Iranian decision-making and US-Saudi resolve, the longer view presents threats of further regional destabilization, smuggling, and even a potential IRGC “rump state” anchored in Yemen if circumstances collapse in Tehran. The conversation closes with a call—more in exasperation than hope—that the West will finally see the region’s conflicts more clearly and act decisively.
Notable Moment:
(80:38)
Nadwa: “Amen to that. Amen.”
— On the hope that Yemen might be liberated from the Houthi/Iranian threat.