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Hey. Hello.
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Welcome back to my theatre themed YouTube channel. Or hello to everyone who is listening on podcast platforms. My name is Mickey Jo.
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And I'm Aaron James.
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And this is the start of our 2026 Olivier Awards coverage.
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It is. It's that time.
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Oh, my goodness. It all begins here today. What are we doing today, Aaron James?
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We are predicting who might get nominations for this year's Olivier Awards.
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Yes, the nominations which are going to be announced next Thursday, the 5th of March.
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Yep.
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I nearly said August then. I'm wishing the next six months away. Clearly midday, at which point we will be reacting to the nomination announcement live. But prior to that, we are going to give you our best collaborative guesses as to which shows, creatives and performances may get nominated this year.
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And this year has probably been one of the hardest to try and pull together lists.
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It's so difficult. There's been so many eligible shows and so we could be completely, wildly off the mark.
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Get ready for like 10 people per category because that's far as Harry's been going.
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Yeah, of course. As we are all currently speculating, feel free to share your own nomination predictions in the comments down below. And if you don't want to do every single category, that's completely understandable. But maybe the nominations you would most like to see next week. In the meantime, this is what we think might happen. This first category we've been talking about for a really long time. Do you want to talk about best new play?
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Okay. I feel like 1536 is a guaranteed
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nomination based on its run at the Almeida Theatre prior to its West End transfer.
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But it's transferring. It's just had a celebrity join the production team. It's just had a TV series announced.
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Like definite tick, everything there.
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My second originally was, inter alia. I feel like that's also a lot.
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We'll get a new play nomination also
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going to the West End.
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Yeah.
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Also similar buzzy National Theater on the
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heels of Prima Facie. Same creative, similar concept.
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And then the third, which you'll probably agree with, which has now become a look and I haven't even seen it is Guess how much I love you.
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This has sort of invaded the list over the last few weeks. We were pretty confident on a sort of top four or five and this has kind of usurped.
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Everybody's talking about it.
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I mean it's going to be a great year for the Royal Court. If the first one out the gate in their 70th anniversary season is already so, so exciting. The most likely thereafter. I have Punch.
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I agree.
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There's no world in which Punch doesn't get an Olympic nomination.
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And it went. It's been to Broadway in the same season as its West End transfer.
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It was also talked about in the House of Commons or the House of Lords. It has like informed national legislation.
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It's James Graham.
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It's already done like a regional return.
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Yeah. They've just known it's for tall.
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Huge. Yeah, that definitely gets a nomination as well. I'm really hoping that Ken Rex does.
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So Ken Rex is kind of one of my. Got my fingers crossed for. Had such a good run the palace and already had a lot of building up things. It won awards at the UK Theatre Awards so it has a track record.
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But against some of those others it is kind of an underdog in some ways.
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Especially then when you have a Tony Award winning play in the mix such as Stereophonic.
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Stereophonic is also on the list and a lot of the acclaimed Broadway plays that transfer here are not as loved by the Oliviers as they are by the Tonys. Slave play as a recent example of that. I hope that it still gets a new play nomination.
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Yeah, Goodnight Oscars on my list as this other Broadway prestige.
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I think he gets in but the play doesn't.
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Which I could see every brilliant thing. Is my going in entertainment and comedy play or is this going in best me Play? The fact that it's just started performances on Broadway with Daniel Radcliffe, which means it's getting a lot of attention right now. And it's the same production and creative team.
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And I honestly don't know to what extent the Broadway transfer matters, but it was impactful while it was here at Soho Place with the rotating stars. I do wonder whether it's going to be considered new or revival because it's existed for such a long time. Yeah. Really interesting to see where exactly that one lands.
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So our next category is Best new musical and do you want to give me your definite locks?
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I mean there's one definite lock and he's short and fluffy and it's Paddington the Musical. And I think there's a couple of those plays we mentioned that you may hear in multiple categories. The Oliviers generally seem to prefer to award a select number of shows in multiple categories rather than spreading them across loads of different productions. Paddington, I think, is going to be the most nominated show, play or musical.
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I agree.
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Of the ceremony. There will be other nominations alongside, of course, including the unlikely pilgrimage of Harold Fry. That's the closest thing that Paddington has to a challenger. Yes, I agree, but still not especially after the reviews of both. I think nothing is unseating Paddington. We also have another prestigious one to remember, which is that David Ives and Stephen Sondheim's Here We Are made its UK premiere at the National Theatre. I think there's no way the last ever Sondheim scored musical doesn't get nominated by the Oliviers.
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I agree.
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And then you're hoping the fourth slot goes to Shucked.
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Yes. The fact that the standard, the critics circle, what's on stage, all have given Shucked a nomination.
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The fact it's being remembered by them is promising because that means people are
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still talking about it.
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Sure.
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Recently. And that it's still standing up. And for some of those, that's for a longer period of time that they were comparing. If anything is going to really stand out from remembering the park season this year, it will be shook.
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It has to beat out a quartet of, shall we say, commercial shows. Clueless. Right back at the start of the season. But it counts. I think it's lost a decent amount of momentum because it was so long ago that it opened. The Great Gatsby is another. It didn't get a lot of love at the Tonys. It might get more in the West End.
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It had that big summer run. Yeah.
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It was a splash.
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It wasn't open ended. It had that limited appeal.
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Of course, the show everyone was talking about all summer was Burlesque, which actually eventually proved really popular with audiences at the Savoy. A lot of people in the industry who make up Olivier nominators and voters may have a different perspective on burlesque because of all of the inside industry chatter about it and the number of producers who at one time or another have been involved with with the show. There is also Disney's Hercules, which has already announced that it's closing, which I think hurts it a little bit.
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I agree.
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Because, you know, if all of these are the commercial option and none of them are running through even the end of this year, then you know, that doesn't really sell them on commercial viability. We Also have to talk about play revivals. This is an interesting category.
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I mean, instantly we're going to say All My Sons.
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All My Sons is, I think, going to be another top contender of the Oliviers this year across multiple categories.
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Sold so well.
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Yeah. Does Arcadia at the Old Vic get a nomination? Even if the production wasn't universally adored by critics because it's the first stoppard coming after his sad passing at the end of last year, I think it
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gives that added sure element of a way for people to acknowledge their respect for him. There are three plays from the very start of the season, so we are talking Much Ado about Nothing.
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Yes.
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I think it could for Siegel, maybe.
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Yeah.
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And Richard ii.
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I don't think it will. I don't think that as a play will. I think Jonathan Bailey would have been their best chance for any kind of a nomination. And based on how full that category is, I'm not sure he's breaking into it, but we'll talk about that when we get to it. Much Ado, especially with the recent Broadway transfer, has kind of reminded people it existed and I think was really joyous. I mean, Timeout called it the show of the year. That. That could defy the time that has passed.
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We didn't see this, but the Weir.
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I have the Weir down on my list.
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Yeah, the Weir. Intimate Apparel.
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Intimate Apparel. We're not even sure where it's going.
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So looking online, it said that the Don Mulryn was its UK premiere, but because it's this tricky thing that in New York, they have the classics rule
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and C. Oliviers really don't.
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Yes, because when Dreamgirls came to the uk, that was a new musical, even though it definitely was not newly written.
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Yeah. They often, in terms of discerning what is new and what is a revival, tend to go on vibes. We've seen productions that have been remounted within the space of like, a decade that have been called revivals, even though it's just a return. And they seem to sort of break their own rules fairly frequently.
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And similarly, when we look at a show like Dracula. Is Dracula a revival?
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Well, Dorian Gray was called new, so Dracula would also be called new, but I don't think it breaks into either. Finally, then, we have musical revival. And you and I have already had arguments about this because I didn't realize that we had different feelings about the way that we thought this was going to go.
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But I feel like we might be close, at least for a few of these.
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We definitely know the two frontrunners for this category who are both destined to
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definitely get a nomination, which are Evita and Into the Woods.
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Evita at the Palladium, into the woods at the Bridge. And I think that it's Evita's to lose on Sheer Buzz and Balcony Sing Song Alone. But we'll get to that next week when we're talking about who we think will and should win in each category. I think the question is who gets the fourth slot? Because the Producers.
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The producers will get with that.
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And there's honestly a crazy world in which into the woods and Evita kind of fight each other loudly enough that the Producers manages to slip through the middle.
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The Producers is a very well put together show.
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Yeah. Especially sort of adored by the industry. So then the fourth slot, to my mind, is between two.
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Okay.
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I think a lot of people are expecting it to be Brigadoon, because people, I think, always anticipate that Regent's park will get a musical revival nomination. And they don't. Consistently.
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Yeah.
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What I wonder is if instead of Brigadoon, Top Hat gets a nomination, is eligible because of the time at the South Bank Centre, or is it thought of as a glorified tour stop and it doesn't really enter into people's imagination.
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This is tricky because it is this prestigious creative team. And also it's worth noting that Top Hat won Best New Musical at the Oliviers when it debuted.
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Yeah.
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So the musical itself has a good record. My veering off is whether they could go rogue and we could see American Psycho slip into the mix.
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See, this is where I sort of reject the idea of these returns and remountings. Groundhog Day did get a nomination as a revival. American Psycho is sort of comparable. It's possible. It's very possible.
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What's interesting as well is, and I didn't realise this, was that the musical itself did not get a single Olivier nomination when it opened in London originally.
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Interesting at all?
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Not one.
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There are a couple of more vague categories that shows can slip into, including Best achievement in an affiliate theatre, the majority of which we haven't seen. But do you have any strong feelings about what will make it into affiliate?
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A few. So I think that 448 psychosis will make it in.
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I agree.
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It was a very big moment. And when finding out that this was eligible, it kind of felt like it's a given. It's the original cast coming back.
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It was extraordinarily meaningful.
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And the Royal Court and the RSC together, it just feels. It feels like a lot of people will Just vote for it out of sheer love of it.
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Yeah.
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My second that I feel like. Feels a bit of a given to me is here. There are blueberries.
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Sure.
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Pulitzer Prize finalist, which I didn't know how it would be received, but the glowing, glowing reviews that came out from Press night makes me think that it has a lot going for it, including very influential producers attached.
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It's topical. It's not divisive.
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Some other affiliate hopes maybe. I have more than like knowing it's really hard for musicals to get a nomination in affiliate. But I think if there's any musical that has a really strong chance, it's the Harder they Come.
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I agree.
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It's coming back. It was really loved. It would be nice to see a musical get that acknowledgement. And then two, that I just really enjoyed Daniel's Husband.
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I thought Daniel's Husband, maybe. Yeah.
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Got a lot of love. Prestige. We've seen Marlo Ben appear in this category before and one I would love to happen is for Ohio by the Vengstens.
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That would be a great moment that
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ran in the Young Vic's smaller space and is eligible. We loved it at Fringe. It is so clever and so perfectly prestigious for this.
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That would be a gorgeous little moment.
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So I'm like, ohio, please. Yeah.
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There's also best entertainment or comedy play, which is where we are expecting Mischief's latest West End show. But one, the comedy about spies to end up alongside another Broadway to West End transfer, O Mary.
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Yes.
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Which arguably was one of the frontrunners to win best new play at the Tonys. You made a good point that it was sort of auspicious timing when they decided to announce the extension and Catherine Tate taking over.
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Yeah. If you want a good time to remind people that this show is sticking around and also to be like, we are a success. That's when you announce it. Another show has also done this which would be in the entertainment and comedy and that is Paranormal Activity. I know. Entertainment comedy.
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This is where the category gets so bizarre.
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But there is a track record of horror adjacent players going into entertainment. We have seen 222 do one in this category. We have seen Stranger Things go into this category.
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Ghost Stories.
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Did they store ghost theories going there? Last year we saw Inside Number nine go in there. This is a very successful route to go. And Paranormal Activity 1 got good reviews critically, industry wise. 2 is coming back to the West End after its current run because it can't extend any longer. So it needs to come back.
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Yeah.
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And just announced the UK and Ireland tour.
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They're making moves, branching off of Stranger Things and IP inspired big shows. Is it a hot take if I think the Hunger Games doesn't necessarily get any nominations?
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I would agree.
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This is the category where it would happen.
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This would be the one. We haven't heard many people talk about it since it started. Performances. And I think, especially if a show like Every Brilliant Thing decided they're going in this category, I feel like there just wouldn't be room for it. I think there's too many big heavy hitters, especially Mischief, being in this category.
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Yes.
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And the final category that a show can go into is Family. And there are two shows that I think are nearly a given to get nominations in this category, and that is Pinocchio the Musical at Shakespeare's Globe, already coming back next year. And Christmas Carol Goes Wrong. The other mischief show, which has opted to go into Family. Okay.
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I have to tell you, I was just looking on ebay, where I go for all kinds of things I love. And there it was, that hologram trading card. One of the rarest. The last one I needed for my set. Shiny like the designer handbag of my dreams.
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One of a kind.
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Ebay had it.
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And now everyone's asking, ooh, where'd you
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get your windshield wipers? Ebay has all the parts that fit my car. No more annoying, just beautiful. Millions of finds, each with a story. EBay, things people love.
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Yes.
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Now that we've talked about the shows, let's talk about the acting performance performances that we think will get nominated. Which category would you like to start with?
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Acting categories are so hard.
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There are inevitably some people that we are forgetting in each instance.
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Yes. Or people we didn't see. So it's. It's hard to comment.
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Let's start with leading actress in a play.
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Okay. There are two performances that I personally saw that I feel like neat were just hands down, are going to get nominations locked in. And I personally agree fully.
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Are they Marianne Jean Baptiste.
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Yes.
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And Rosamund Pike.
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Yes.
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From All My Sons and into Alia.
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Yes. Yeah.
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That would make sense to me, too. I think those are both given unless something bizarre happened to Marianne Jean Baptiste ended up in supporting, which I don't actually.
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I think they're both going to be in leading.
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Yeah. Rosamund Pike, I think is the most obvious.
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Yes.
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And maybe frontrunner.
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Yes.
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In the last couple weeks, just like the play itself found its way onto our radar, I think Rosie Sheehy has to be in the conversation for what she does on stage in Guess how much I love youe. She has also been nominated before.
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She's also eligible for a different show this season. Oh, she's also eligible for Brendan and they're supporting.
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She could do a Romola, Garry and get dual nominations.
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Yeah.
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There are question marks against almost everyone else I have on the shortlist here.
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Okay.
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Because the Oliviers, like the Tony Awards, still don't know what to do with non binary performers because we still have gendered acting categories and at the Tonys, performers can opt into a category of their choosing. I'm anticipating that Mason Alexander park would be nominated in Best Leading Actress.
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I believe so.
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In a play. For the performance of Mary in O Mary. There is also the Cynthia Erivo of it all. And I think truly she is probably the best bet for a nomination for Dracula 100% because it truly split people on the show itself and the approach and this kind of theatre. But she has been praised pretty thoroughly in the reviews. Even if there is the sort of wider public conversation, I don't know whether it's been enough for her.
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Yeah.
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There is also another actress who often gets nominations and awards who is currently leading a play, and that is Sheridan Smith in Woman In Mind.
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So I have three other people to bring to the table.
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Three others. Okay.
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That I think all are quite highly likely. Two of them extremely early in the season, which are Cate Blanchett.
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You're gonna say Hayley Atwell and Hayley Atwell. I had Hayley on my list and then I took her and Tom Hiddleston off. Actually, I think Much Ado might get nominations. I don't know if they will. I would like for them to. And I left that performance imagining that they would. It was just so long ago.
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And then something else I have, and I kind of think she might be a lock. Is Samira Wily for Intimate Apparel?
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Oh, we forgot. Yes. No, I agree.
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That's all I remember hearing about Intimate Apparel was the production, but also her performance.
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Yeah. We cannot count out Intimate Apparel. We didn't see that one. You also didn't see the Seagull.
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I didn't.
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And Cate Blanchett was pretty terrific. An argument could be made to put her in featured. I don't know. I'm so intrigued to see whether the Seagull gets any kind of lingering recognition. Almost harder to predict is leading actor in a play. And just like we had Marie Ann Jean Baptiste in All My Sons, I think Bryan Cranston is a lock, maybe a front runner. But there's an All My Sons question here because Papa Esyedou has Been nominated in leading by other awards, but sort of in the past, the role, I think, has also been considered very much a featured one.
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And I can see them doing that with the Oliviers. We've seen before where shows with roles that could very easily be a leading part have suddenly appeared and featured. And you can see it's because of allowing people a better chance. And I think we're going to see this in the musical side.
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Also, you mentioned Goodnight Oscar earlier. I do think Sean Hayes is definitely going to get a nomination. He won the Tony Award.
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Yeah. It's an incredible performance.
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Yes.
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I also think we can't forget Brendan Gleason's performance for the Weir.
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Yes, yes.
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That seemed to be beloved.
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And likewise, we talked about Punch earlier. David Shields, I think, has to be in the conversation, but we're already running out of slots here. And Robert Aramayo, who just won at the BAFTAs, I think, also is going to get a nomination for Guess How Much I Love you. Rosie has some of the showier material, but because he's very buzzy right now, I wonder if there have been any other examples in previous years of when the nominators have gone away and gone to the cinema and their appreciation for someone's performance in a play sort of gets tethered to work they've done on screen and like that rise of Personality and just sort of a rising star out in the world. And they think, oh, that's just like, they're amazing and it kind of helps boost them in that way.
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That's kind of interesting. And to link to that, I wonder how much somebody doing an incredible number of performances of different characters on stage.
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Jack Holden.
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Yeah, yeah. Also pushes it because I think one of the strongest elements for Ken Rex to get a nomination would be Jack Holden's incredible performance.
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I truly hope Jack gets recognition either in this category or in Best New Play, and I'm happy with either. I need it to be one of the two of them.
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I agree.
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Let's talk about leading performances in a musical, starting with the leading actresses. And the most obvious look for this
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category is Rachel Zegler.
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Don't cry for her, Argentina. She's saying from the balcony she's going to get a nomination.
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It's a given.
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It's also Evita, and I feel like
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if we're doing a second person, that feels pretty much a given, it would be Jenna Russell in the Unlikely Pilgrimage of Harold Fry.
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Yeah.
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It's truly. That musical is about those two central performances and Jenna is heartbreaking.
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After which there Aren't that many truly very substantial leading actress roles this year? A lot of them start to feel a little bit smaller. And I think this might be one of the first instances we see of sort of Paddington beginning to sweep because I think Amy Ellen Richardson will end up in leading and I think she does get a nomination. That song that she has, I think just clinches it.
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Yes. In a similar sense of if we're going to see a show appear in a lot of categories, we could be seeing Katy Brabin appear in this category for the Baker's Wife in the Woods.
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We could. That's also very possible. I have Jane Krakowski down.
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I also have Jane Krakowski down here talking Sondheim.
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I think it was a real treat to have her over here. She has won an Olivier Award previously and that's one of the more sort of celebrated roles.
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Substantial part in that show.
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I'm rooting for Emma Flynn from Clueless. I think if it gets remembered for anything, if it got talked about for anything, it's how fantastic she was. And so I hope that that might amount to something for her.
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I agree. I'm also going to bring Joanna Woodward to the table of this.
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It's not a leading role.
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So this is why I also wanted to say this. The Oliviers have only had this role as leading. That's why Leigh Zimmerman was leading actress in a musical for the Oliviers.
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What did the Tonys do?
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They did featured, I think. But Olivier is still leading and I don't know which way the London production will go if they went for leading before.
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Baker's Wife is another one. Baker's Wife and Witch have jumped around. You may be wondering why we didn't say Kate Fleetwood. And I'm pretty sure looking at this year and the Rachel Zegler of it all. Kate Fleetwood is the most talked about member of the into the Woods Company. I'm on that show. I'm pushing her for featured and I think you could do so pretty credibly. You want to start the conversation about actors in a musical.
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Sure. And I think the leading frontrunner in this category is known as Little Bear and will be an interesting decision from the Oliviers because the Oliviers since a few years ago had stopped nominating multiple people in a category. But I think they're going to have to change this and nominate both James Mead and Artie Shah together for creating the role of Paddington.
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This is our best guess as to how they are going to navigate this situation. And we think it leans male category because Paddington has a male role akin to the seven actors who play the tiger in the Life of PI. But, yeah, I think this is how this is going to go down.
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I think either way, both performers will be acknowledged in some way when they announce the nominations. Yeah.
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With some decent competition from Mark Addy as Harold Fry in the Unlikely Pilgrimage Thereof.
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And in this category, I think we will be seeing a Diego Andres Rodriguez appear in this category too.
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Yep. He just about skews leading rather than supporting. I have this weird vision in my mind where I'm wondering if. And it's going to be interesting to see how much love producers gets.
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Yes.
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I think Andy Nyman for sure. There's a world in which they could both get nominated.
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And I'm intrigued whether they're both in this category or not.
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Yeah.
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I feel like both might be eligible for this.
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Oh, they have to both be.
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Yeah.
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If you're trying to sell me on Oola Vloom reading and Leo Bloom being featured, then I'm going to lose my entire mile.
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The Oliviers have proved me wrong before.
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Jamie Parker is the other one who I think would be in this conversation. We haven't really mentioned the Great Gatsby cast. And Jamie Moscato recently became an Olivier nominee for the first time. I don't know. They didn't get a lot of Tony's love for performances.
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No. And I don't. I don't think we've heard enough recently to make it feel leading that way.
A
If anyone else does, I think Artie from Psycho probably. Yeah, probably.
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He also has that double shows this year because he was also in the Line of Beauty.
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He was also in the Line of Beauty. That's very true.
B
Let us move on to supporting actress in a musical. This is by far for me the hardest category. This is my favorite to whittle down. I love it. I love everybody that's even eligible in this category, but I don't know how it's going to work. So I'm going to pass over to yourself.
A
I think Kate Fleetwood gets a nomination either way.
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Agreed.
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Whichever category. But I think it's going to be in Featured.
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I agree.
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I also think there's going to be at least two for Paddington and one of them is guaranteed to be Victoria Hamilton Barrett.
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Victoria Hamilton Barrett feels like V Log. Even before the show opened, people were saying Victoria Hamilton Barrett will get an Olivier for this role. Yeah.
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I then think the second one is more likely to be Amy Booth Steele.
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Interesting.
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Because you think it's going to be Bonnie Langford.
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I think it's Going to be Bonnie Langford. Because Bonnie Langford, the musical theatre icon that she is, has never received an Olivier Award nomination.
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True.
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And Bonnie has a show stealing number.
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I would say that Amy Booth Steel also has a show stealing number.
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Yes.
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And I think just gets more to really derail the whole thing. That's also true with her comedy. I think people leave that theatre talking about Amy Blue Steel and Tom Edden, who we will get to. And I think with Bonnie, I would love for all three of them to just cause chaos.
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It would make me very happy.
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And get nominated alongside each other in that category. I sort of wonder. And we'd have to go back and look at that year. If what Bonnie did on stage at The Savoy in 9 to 5 wasn't enough to get her at least a nomination to salute her entire career, I don't know that she has that much more to do in this role. We have a couple of the slots and you are pretty insistent that Tracy Bennett is going to get a nomination for Here We Are.
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She recently got a nomination at the Standard Awards for this role.
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Yeah. She's another one who like. Favourite of the Oliviers.
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Favourite of the Oliviers and also does have. Did have a significant moment in the show that would be able to say that's why. And I kind of feel like, honestly for Here We Are, she is the most likely person to get a nomination for that show.
A
Yeah. If American Psycho does get any kind of recognition, I think Emily Barber is actually the strongest performance in that cast and maybe the most likely to get nominated. But I do at the same time have everything crossed for. For Georgina Honora.
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100% shocked.
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It's a Tony Award winning role. I think someone from that cast and she brought the house down is gonna get it. You could talk about Stevie Webb, you could talk about Keith Ramsey and I hope that maybe we will. But Georgina is probably the safest bet.
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Yes.
A
Who else do you have on your list then? Because that's. I'm out of names.
B
That's interesting because earlier on you were certain about Bella Brown.
A
Well, I've. This is me being a little jaded and not that I think Bella's fantastic, but I'm just remembering what happened with Sunset and what happened with Cabaret and I don't know, Evita was so massive and was so hyped. I wondered if we were just going to get a quartet of nominations and we were going to get Rachel, Diego, James and Bella. It wouldn't surprise me if that happened. Equally, I think if Joanna Woodward gets a nomination it ought to be in this category rather than leading. But on reflection, I wonder if leading is easier to get nominations but harder to win.
B
Yes, that's what I think. This year. One of the final questions on my list for this category was, where do the Muses fit in this year?
A
And do the Muses fit in?
B
They are making an exception to the rule to allow multiple performers to be nominated together. Will Disney have been able to save the Muses collectively coming on?
A
And I really hope the answer is no, because I think that portraying simultaneously one character is one thing, happening to be a group is another. I think the sixth nomination was a mistake. I think to nominate an ensemble in that way, or a collective is something that the Oliviers have deliberately stepped away from. Pennington, I think, is such a different example because it's truly a composite of performance, where only one person, for the most part, is on stage and one person, like, it's a true collaboration on this one character. The Muses is a different thing. And it's hard to get nominated at the Oliviers, of all places, for a performance basically sold on great vocals. If we're talking about the Muses, I think we have to go back and talk about the Gatsby cast. Then we have supporting actors in a musical. We've already talked about Tom Edden in Paddington, who is just sensationally brilliant, I think definitely going to get a nomination. Probably the only Paddington supporting actor with enough meat on the bone to get one.
B
I agree.
A
Which could also be to his advantage. A show that might get two is the Producers.
B
Yes. I think Trevor Ashley, 500% is going to get a nomination.
A
And this is a character that has often been nominated and that the Oliviers did consider supporting back in the day as well.
B
And I just genuinely think it's stopping the show every night.
A
Yeah. Do you think that Harry Morrison could also get one?
B
Oh, I'd wondered this when we watched it, and as I was writing the list, I thought maybe there is a chance. But I think that depends for me on if Here We Are gets live in this category.
A
So if Here We Are gets in, I have a name here of someone who I think would get the nomination. Who do you think it is?
B
I originally thought Harry Haddon Patton.
A
That's who I've written down.
B
But I was reminded recently by Denis Ohare's performance as the waiter, and I
A
think if we all left at the interval, we would agree. And I think by the time you've got through the second act, it's Harryton that you're remembering. I do have written down here James Olivas from Evita because I just think that we could see a lot of momentum for that production. And I think into the woods almost has too many supporting performances. That kind of. It's hard to know who really emerges among that company because they're all just pretty great. I'm also manifesting for Keith Ramsay.
B
That's my big manifestation for this because
A
I really want that nomination to happen. But I'm just scared that his performance doesn't get remembered for how brilliant he was.
B
Felt like it should. Everybody was in hysterics. It stays with you.
A
Do you have anyone else?
B
The commercial musicals.
A
Okay.
B
And whether any of those will break through, such as a Todrick hall or a tragedy on Nicholas.
A
I think if Todrick gets a nomination, it's not in this category.
B
So I feel like I agree on the same category.
A
And I don't think. I think if it was going to be anyone for Hercules, it would be some version of the Muses. I don't think anyone else has as good a shot, but we could be proven wrong.
B
Yeah.
A
Let's talk about who we have for the world of plays. Supporting actress in a play. I'm quite light on this category. I do have Julie Hesmondlar for Punch.
B
I feel like that's a lot.
A
Yeah. If indeed she is in supporting. I also have Nia Tal for Stereophonic.
B
I also have Lucy down in this category. I have them both down in supporting. Yes. I wonder if they're all in supporting similarly to how the Years was structured where they just put the whole cast in the same category and it was a equal weighting.
A
That's interesting.
B
And the reason I think this is because Loosey has actually had quite a lot of nominations recently. Uh huh.
A
Lucy Karchevsky.
B
I would think knowing the situation of this season, knowing how many leading performers in there, knowing you could say this is an ensemble play and everybody's equally weighted. She could go in that category and I feel like would have an easy slot, easy way to a nomination.
A
Interesting. I just don't know if there is as much flexibility in the categories as we're giving them credit for. Because that isn't how they were nominated on Broadway.
B
Yeah. I've just noticed there's inconsistencies between the UK and the US I mean there
A
are, there are, there are. There very much are. I have written down 1536 here with question marks.
B
Me too, Me too.
A
On the basis of the Years. Because that was a performance where they all felt like leading actresses. But because it was an ensemble lead. They were all considered supporting. And I imagine that 1536 is the same. We have not seen this place. It's very hard for us to predict. So it could be one or two or three of. And yet standing at the sky's edge. I think they ended up going. They went leading with the three that were in contention there because May Moona ended up in Richard.
B
Maybe. That's very true.
A
So honestly, who knows?
B
I have Rosalie Craig down as a question mark for this from Goodnight Oscar.
A
Thank you. I was like, what play was Rosalie Craig this year? We saw it. Yes. No. Oh, yeah.
B
Very true. Yeah. And those were. They were very much both pushed as the two performers you should be aware of in this production.
A
Yes.
B
And then I had one that might not get a nomination at all, but I believe she deserves a nomination because I recently went to see the Virgins at Soho Theatre this year. Soho Theater is main category. Let us not forget. We can get Rogue.
A
We can.
B
But Molly Hewitt Richards as Phoebe steals that show. The show did very well with reviews, but also just. She deserves it.
A
Imagine if you speak that into existence.
B
I think she deserves it. And she gets notices in every single review.
A
And please, I have some left field thoughts in supporting actor and you may bring me back down to earth with the more predictable ones.
B
Okay.
A
I have Papa Estyidou here because I think he ought to be in featured.
B
I agree. I've got that too.
A
I didn't actually see him. I saw his understudy.
B
I did see him. Incredible. There you go.
A
I have Giles Torreira down here for.
B
I do as well.
A
Giles is great in Omar.
B
Great in it. And it's an award role.
A
Yeah, yeah. As of a few years ago, his sort of reputation within the industry has kind of caught up with his talent.
B
Yes.
A
And he is rightfully getting the respect that he deserves. I, going back to Stereophonic, have Zachary Hart in here.
B
I have Zachary Hart here on the
A
basis that a couple of them were going to end up in leading. But if they're all this is in
B
it together, I think they all could be in it together. That's. That's my gut says they're all in it together.
A
He's still got a great part. As does Eli, though.
B
Eli is on my list.
A
Yeah. I have Jasper Talbot.
B
I also have Jasper Talbot in here.
A
Not for the line of Beauty that would be leading.
B
No, I have. For inter alia.
A
For inter alia. I agree. I could see that happening. And I also have Romesh Renganathan. Oh, I'm reminded of the year that Lilyn got a nomination for 222 A Ghost Story. And occasionally they kind of want the names for the broadcast. And I thought it was a really great debut.
B
It was a great debut performance.
A
I didn't think we'd have much overlap there. So that's quite.
B
Yeah.
A
We didn't confer when making these.
B
No. We hadn't spoken about these until right now. So we're. So this is why we might be reacting strongly on some.
A
Now we're gonna go from actors to creatives. Quick. Choose a meal deal with McValue. The $5 McChicken meal deal, the $6 McDouble meal deal or the new $7 Daily Double meal deal. Each with its own small fries, drink and Four Piece McNuggets.
B
There's actually no rush.
A
I'm just excited for McDonald's for a limited time only prices. The participation may vary now by Open McDelivery. This is the part of our predictions where we start to get a little bit frustrated because chances are we have overrepresented musicals based on the nominations that they will actually see.
B
It is so rare for two musicals to get a nomination in these categories and a lot of the time it does not make sense. Olivier's Please One day split plays and me.
A
As a reminder, for anyone who follows other awards like the Tonys, we have a shared category for things like sound design, set design, lighting and director across plays and musicals and they tend to be nominated by the plays.
B
It does feel like there is a bias.
A
So let's start with director. And I think Eva Van Hove absolutely gets a nomination for My Sons. I think that absolutely happens. But I think Luke Shepard also absolutely gets one for Paddington.
B
I really hope so because I don't
A
know how he could. It's Paddington.
B
Yeah. This is my thing.
A
Yeah.
B
If we're going to do all of them, I will get upset if they just skip director. It will annoy me.
A
Do you know what is. Ivo is so prevalent in All My Sons. You feel him in every decision. And Luke is sort of. He's done it so well that he's invisible.
B
Yes.
A
And so you don't think about the direction because you turn into a child who's not sat there thinking about, oh, direction. You're just giddy with joy. Some of the best direction that I've seen this year was Justin Martin for Inter Alia. I was giddy about that direction and I really hope that it gets nominated.
B
I could see Lynette Linton getting one for Intimate Apparel.
A
Absolutely.
B
We didn't see it, but Lynette Linton is an incredible director, so. Yeah.
A
And I'm hoping it's not another category of all male director nominees. Lindsay Turner could very much get one for 1536. I nearly called it 70. I nearly added 200 years to the play then. And then I think we have to have a Jamie Lloyd conversation.
B
Oh, interesting. I was not going there then.
A
Were you going to say Jordan? Fine.
B
I was going to bring up Daniel Lorkin for Surya Phonic.
A
I think, sadly, he gets shut out by the. There's been. There's been too many.
B
There's been a lot of acclaimed plays. Yeah.
A
I think, again, I'd be very happy to see it. I think it's deserved. I just don't trust the Oliviers to make that choice necessarily. I do think it's going to be interesting to see if Jamie Lloyd makes it into this category. I cannot imagine it not being for Evita, and I think it will be
B
Much Ado about nothing.
A
That's wild to me. I mean, Much Ado has, like, this recent Broadway announcement came at the perfect time and came at a deliberate time. I agree that that was his better work.
B
And I think, genuinely and truthfully, I do think with the directing categories, people really do vote on what they think is the best direction. It's probably one of the few categories that I don't think I know people fly with.
A
I just think that balcony moment is gonna play on a lot of people's minds. And that was also direction, that swing. It came from him.
B
It is true.
A
Let's make it interesting and put some money on it and we'll find out who wins next week. Let's step into choreography then. Do you want to talk us through the names that you're expecting to hear next Thursday?
B
My 200 percents are Ellen Kane and Fabian Aloise for.
A
Well, for Paddington, Ellen Kane. And are you assuming Fabian for Evita?
B
I'm assuming for Evita.
A
There is a really messed up world in which he could get nominated for Much Ado instead.
B
That's crazy. Oh, for both or for both? For both. I could see or for both, because
A
it's so talked about with dance.
B
So if it was for both, I could definitely see it. I think if it was one or the other, it would be for Evita. And I could see a world in which he did get it for both because Ellen Kane got one for Dear England. It happened.
A
I weirdly think the Oliviers are going to get both wrong. And Jamie Lloyd is going to get nominated for Directing Evita when he should get nominated for directing Much Ado. And Fabian is going to get nominated for choreographing Much Ado when he should get nominated for choreographic of Eater. And it would be diabolical, but that would be so obvious.
B
I'm hoping. I hope.
A
I think there has to be a play in this category somewhere, and Much Ado is the danciest play. Do you have another play in the category?
B
No. I was trying to think of one before because I thought maybe one will turn up.
A
It's gonna be much too.
B
Yeah, but if it is, I could see him getting one for both and he'll get two.
A
I have three other musical choreographers I do as well. Drew McCone for Brigadoon. Gorgeous balletics. Stunning. No one's doing it like Drew McConney todrick for burlesque.
B
Do you know, I had thought this and then forgot to write his name down.
A
Oh, okay. Well, you said earlier the other category. Was this not what you were thinking of?
B
No, it was. Oh, okay. But I'd forgotten on my list to put his name down, and I'd already thought of it.
A
I think it absolutely deserves recognition.
B
Yes. But my other two were Kathleen Marshall for Top Hat.
A
Oh, I forgot about Top Hat. Oh, my gosh.
B
And Tom Jackson Greaves for that makes it really hard. Yeah.
A
There's so many dance images. I think it's hard then to be a Harold Fry because Brigadoon, Burlesque, and Top Hat are all a lot more dance forward.
B
Yes.
A
I love the choreography in Harold Fry. I think it's so smart and sincere. But the others are just prominent, prominent choreography. It's a part of the show's identity.
B
I do feel like the strongest nomination chance for Burlesque is Todrick's choreography.
A
I agree. Now, I entered into the next category, which is our favorite vague nonsense of best musical contribution, which is not about composition. It's just about good job making music happen somehow on stage. I entered in with complete uncertainty. And then as I started to think about it, I had more ideas. I think Paddington gets something somewhere.
B
I think Paddington will get orchestrations. Yeah, those orchestrations, you know, that beautiful horn from here. But also in pretty little dead things, that beautiful horn that they love to play is orchestration work.
A
I think Evita also gets one for.
B
Yeah, I agree.
A
Orchestrations, I think. Well, I hope that stereophonic.
B
I have stereophonic.
A
It's got two. It's got. If this is a weird, vague category about good job you made music happen, then you've got gotta You've gotta give it to Stereophonic and also Ken Rex.
B
Yes.
A
In a play they can get nominated for composition, but in a musical they're not because that's nominated as part of
B
the last new musical, which makes absolutely
A
no sense, you'll agree, but that I think could happen. I also have just like Harold Fry written here for similar musical orchestration, arrangement, vibes.
B
And I have into the woods down for kind of a similar thing of. Did it just get one in that sense? But producers could also Sing Street. Could also. There's quite a few.
A
Oh, I forgot about Sing Street. I haven't talked about Sing Street.
B
Sing street is one of these ones that if there were five musicals for best new Musical, I think that would be the fifth.
A
There's a world in which it beats Out Shucked and it's the fourth. Are we ready to talk about set designs?
B
Yes.
A
Okay, talk to me about set designs. I have feelings.
B
I think musical theatre wise, I think Tom Pye and Tom Skirt, the two Toms are probably the strongest to Lockheed numbers for Paddington and for into the Woods.
A
I concur.
B
Then I have some people here that have done a play anti musical this season and I don't know where it could lean.
A
Okay, you tell me the shows and I'll tell you which way it goes.
B
Okay. Sutra Gilmore.
A
So for Much Ado or Evita. Or Evita. Can I say neither?
B
Yeah, you can say neither.
A
I kind of didn't think that this would necessarily. I mean, probably rather Evita. I don't know if people think set with Much Ado it was so sort of deliberately sparse.
B
It depends again on where videography goes
A
because we don't know who else do we have?
B
David Zinn, Stereophonic for Stereophonic or for Here We Are.
A
Oh, I forgot about the Here We Are set. Oh, that's such a good.
B
Because he has the reveal.
A
I think Stereophonics still maybe edges it.
B
And I wonder, like, who talks about what happens with a soundboard and it being a real working. Like, is that set or is it sound?
A
Oh, we'll get to that. But I think it's a big plus for sound.
B
My big, like, I think would get a number just because it's like we didn't get to see it, but I was not getting to see it in person. And that would be Lizzie Clachen for the lady of the Sea. Oh, yeah.
A
With the onstage pool. I have written down here into Alia.
B
Yes.
A
I have All My Sons.
B
Yeah, those were two that I was wondering.
A
Yeah. And I have comedy about Spies.
B
Oh, I forgot about comedy. About spies.
A
It depends what you're looking for in a set because you sort of. You think about it more and more and you're like, oh. And then it's really hard to.
B
And that set did a lot.
A
It's hard to hold up the minimalist ones alongside those kind of sets.
B
It's hard to know what ticks for set. Sides fancy.
A
Yeah. In costume, I feel very confidently that Paddington leads the charge.
B
Yes.
A
For the dual costume designers in that show, both for the Paddington design and for the wardrobe design of the rest of the company. I also really hope that Brigadoon gets some design recognition and I think it's easier for it to get costume than set.
B
I would agree. Yeah.
A
The set was stunning. It was like a grand designs house.
B
Yeah. There was moving water.
A
The costumes were also gorgeous.
B
I have into the Wood Stone here.
A
Yes.
B
Very gorgeous. Like, striking costume design.
A
I have the Great Gatsby.
B
Yeah.
A
Which one?
B
Costumes.
A
I also have O Mary.
B
I have Omari diamond as well. Striking costume design. I think always, like, it doesn't have to be tons of costumes, but for costumes that they have.
A
This is another category where you've just said mostly musicals and it's not going to be mostly musicals. So I think of the plays, Omari is the most colourful and sort of specific in its costuming.
B
You should encounter stereophonic in that area.
A
I would love the stereophonic because. Yeah.
B
The era specificness of those costumes.
A
Stylish.
B
And if we're looking at past Olivier winners, I believe we can't look out. Dracula.
A
Yes. Margelwell. Yes. One for Dorian Gray. I don't have a lot written here for lighting, but this is where I am really going to push Evita.
B
Yes.
A
That lighting design was extraordinary.
B
I also think Paddington will appear in
A
this Paddington, inevitably, I think, into the Woods. I think its best creative moments were
B
in lighting, as do I think, All My Sons.
A
Extraordinary lighting. Oh, my gosh.
B
Yeah.
A
1536 is a bit of an unknown for us in some of these categories.
B
So if. If it's. If we're being really silly not saying it, that's probably why.
A
Yeah.
B
Because I also wonder if, inter alia, could appear in that category.
A
Yeah.
B
Because that lighting design was cool.
A
You know, you wonder if the Hunger Games is going to sneak into one of these technical categories because it was this extraordinary technical undertaking.
B
I just realized in set, neither of us have mentioned Paranormal Activity.
A
That's true.
B
I feel like that might have a look because I have heard so much about that show's technical elements.
A
Yeah, it kind of. From images, it looks not unlike the concept of comedy about spies.
B
Yeah.
A
Sound design is another one where I didn't think I would have strong thoughts and then I had strong thoughts, and I can make a case for each of them. Okay, go ahead, Paddington. What they do with. Oh, yeah, with Paddington and how they make that work, that in and of itself is wizardry, I think Evita. Similarly, a lot of technical wizardry. Whenever they're doing the. They've made it look simple now, but when they're doing the. I'm gonna go sing outdoors. And also, props to them for the sound design on Argyle Street.
B
Yes.
A
That they were like, you know what? We're gonna give you the orchestra as well. But that's still going to be fine. To not come through her mic and disrupt the fact that that still worked. And also, like, there's handhelds and all these things and the impact of it. The wall of sound that there was in the Palladium. Yeah, absolutely.
B
I agree.
A
And then Stereophonic.
B
Yes.
A
I mean, come on now. If there are going to be plays, and I always get crossed when there are plays as many or more than musicals in sound design, because, you know, they're just not dealing with as many different factors. But if there are going to be plays in this category, Stereophonic had better be one of them.
B
Yes.
A
Because the actual mixing desk and the different levels and the rear space on stage, I mean, it's. It's extraordinary.
B
They have into the woods down here. They have fun with the sound design around the room.
A
They do, they do. As does Dracula, interestingly enough.
B
Yes. The bats really got me.
A
Yeah. That, I think, brings us to the end of this marathon session of prediction. Maybe we are completely. Imagine if the nominations. I don't even think we said enough in each category, but imagine it's simply everything that we said it won't be. So to find out what it actually is and how correct or incorrect we ended up being, you're gonna have to tune in next week. We will be live streaming our reaction to the nominations as they are announced next Thursday. Make sure you're subscribed on YouTube with the notifications turned on so that you don't miss that when it happens. Come join us in the live chat and you can find out who is nominated alongside us. In the meantime, thank you for indulging us and listening to our nomination predictions. Make sure to share yours in the comments down below, particularly if there are any that we omitted or any instances where you completely disagree with what we think is going to happen or if you just want to manifest the nominations that you would most like to see. Share all your thoughts in the comments. We will be back with more Olivier's coverage and thoughts between now and the ceremony.
B
We are in award season.
A
I have been Mickey Jones, I have
B
been Erin James and we both hope
A
that everyone is staying safe and that you have a stagey day. For 10 more seconds, I'm Micky Jo Theatre. Oh my God. Hey, thanks for watching. Have a stagey day. Subscribe this message comes from Brex. BREX is the intelligent finance platform that helps you spend smarter and move faster.
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Podcast: MickeyJoTheatre
Host: Mickey Jo (A), joined by Erin James (B)
Date: February 26, 2026
Mickey Jo and guest Erin James dive deep into their predictions for the 2026 Olivier Awards nominations, offering insights, analysis, and lively debate on who and what might be recognized in this year's highly competitive race. The episode covers potential nominees across all major categories—including plays, musicals, technical awards, and individual performances—using a blend of industry knowledge, recent trends, and their own theatergoing experiences.
"This year has probably been one of the hardest to try and pull together lists." (Erin James, 01:20)
Listeners get both a comprehensive season recap and an engaging look at the quirks of Olivier Awards-nominating logic, all delivered in the enthusiastic, witty, and slightly nerdy tone characteristic of MickeyJoTheatre.
"There's no world in which Punch doesn't get an Olympic nomination." (Mickey Jo, 03:04)
"Paddington, I think, is going to be the most nominated show, play or musical." (Mickey Jo, 05:28)
Play Revival:
Musical Revival:
Affiliate Theatre:
Best Entertainment or Comedy Play:
Family Category:
Leading Actress in a Play:
"Rosamund Pike, I think, is the most obvious." (Mickey Jo, 17:54)
Leading Actor in a Play:
Leading Actress in a Musical:
"Rachel Zegler—don't cry for her, Argentina… she’s singing from the balcony, she's going to get a nomination." (Mickey Jo, 22:45)
Leading Actor in a Musical:
Supporting Performance Highlights:
Direction:
Choreography:
Musical Contribution (Orchestrations, Arrangements):
Design (Set, Costume, Lighting, Sound):
"If there are going to be plays in [sound design], Stereophonic had better be one of them." (Mickey Jo, 50:51)
If you haven’t kept up with the 2025-26 London theatre scene, this episode offers a sweeping tour of the most buzzed-about shows and performances, as well as a culture-savvy peek under the hood of the UK’s highest-profile theatre awards. Whether you’re rooting for a new musical, star actor, or long-delayed revival, Mickey Jo and Erin James have likely mentioned it—if not, add your thoughts in the comments as they invited!
Summary by MickeyJoTheatre Podcast Summarizer, February 2026