Here we find ourselves approaching the fifth spring of the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022.As the rest of the world’s geopolitical landscape changes dramatically, Russia’s “friend group” shrinks, and Ukraine’s friends grow weary and distracted, where is the war moving and where could we expect Russia to adjust for another year of conflict?

Returning to Midrats again to discuss this and related issues is Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg, a Senior Research Scientist in the Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs division of CNA, where he has worked since 2000.

Dr. Gorenburg is an associate at the Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and previously served as Executive Director of the American Association of the Advancement of Slavic Studies (AAASS). His research interests include security issues in the former Soviet Union, Russian military reform, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. Dr. Gorenburg is author of Nationalism for the Masses: Minority Ethnic Mobilization in the Russian Federation (Cambridge University Press, 2003), and has been published in journals such as World Politics and Post-Soviet Affairs. He currently serves as editor of Problems of Post-Communism and was also editor of Russian Politics and Law from 2009 to 2016. Dr. Gorenburg received a B.A. in international relations from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University.

Summary

In this episode, we explore the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, marking its fifth spring, and analyze Russia’s current military strategy, technological dependencies, economic adjustments, and geopolitical efforts. Our expert guest, Dr. Dmitry Gorenberg, a senior research scientist at CNA, provides insights into Russia’s military tactics, technological challenges, and international alliances, painting a comprehensive picture of a pivotal moment in the conflict.

Key Topics:

The significance of the fifth spring of the Russia-Ukraine war and its implications
The role and impact of Starlink and Russian anti-satellite capabilities
Russian military tactics: steady grinding, troop mobilization, and drone warfare
The Russian psyche regarding prolonged conflict and public sentiment
The influence of repression and government control on information dissemination
Economic resilience: sanctions, oil prices, and support from BRICS nations
Russia’s strategic partnerships: Venezuela, Iran, China, and others
The role of sabotaging NATO and Western countries to weaken collective defense
Information warfare: Russian propaganda, disinformation, and influence operations
Technological dependencies: reliance on US-based satellite systems and Chinese components
Russian military leadership: promotions, strategic updates, and future outlooks
The geopolitics of energy, with focus on shadow fleets and the Straits of Hormuz

Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction and overview of Russia’s fifth spring in the Ukraine conflict
02:09 - The impact of cutting off Starlink and communication disruptions on the front lines
04:20 - Russian troop mobilization strategies and tactics
05:39 - External foreign fighters: North Koreans, North Africans, and recruitment trends
08:33 - Russian public perception and cultural narrative about the war’s longevity
09:29 - The influence of repression, propaganda, and societal attitudes in Russia
12:46 - Government control of communications, internet censorship, and surveillance
16:15 - Russia’s dependence on US satellite systems and Chinese technology
17:36 - Russia’s technological gap: Satellites, GPS, and domestically developed systems
19:10 - Economic impacts: sanctions, oil prices, and Russia’s financial resilience 21:25 - Russia’s efforts with BRICS and global network of allies to bypass sanctions
23:24 - The role of Venezuela, Iran, and other countries in Russia’s geopolitical web
27:06 - Russia’s sabotage operations against NATO and Western nations
30:13 - Political influence campaigns, disinformation, and influence operations
32:09 - Reflection on Cold War-era propaganda and current information strategies
33:38 - The use of media, social platforms, and online influence in shaping narratives
37:40 - Historical perspective on propaganda, public manipulation, and media control
39:51 - Modern military technology, including missile attacks and Ukraine’s defense
42:11 - The evolving missile landscape, targeting energy infrastructure and battlefield logistics
44:46 - Russia’s advanced satellite capabilities: intercepting and maneuvering satellites
46:47 - External support for Russia: North Korean, Iranian weapons, and China’s role
48:00 - Chinese technology and components aiding Russia’s military industry
50:17 - Russia’s long-term concerns about China’s rising dominance
52:24 - Russia’s diplomatic and military support networks in Latin America and beyond
54:00 - Shadow tanker ships, oil sanctions, and economic strategies related to energy
55:47 - The geopolitical implications of oil sales, shadow fleets, and global markets
57:06 - Russia’s support to Iran: targeting capabilities and strategic assistance
58:21 - Ukraine’s recent military developments and regional connections
60:59 - Ukraine’s defense industrial capacity and regional alliances
62:24 - Russia’s outreach and support to Middle Eastern countries; strategic intentions
64:39 - Future outlook: military promotions, strategic planning, and the war’s trajectory

Resources & Links:

Episode 751: Dmitry Gorenberg on Russia in year five of the war