This week: a tale of two audio essays.

Philip is going deep dive on the coming oil crisis.

He sees a two-wave format emerging. The initial wave - dropping in a month or so, is already baked in.

“The oil infrastructure is like a body,” he says. “if the heart stops pumping, the cells stop oxygenating, after a while they begin to die off.” They're "living chemical engineering systems" that need constant throughput. Shutdowns normally require years of planning and cost hundreds of millions. This will entail real damage to the global oil infrastructure, but eventually reparable.

And then a second wave - if things persist into the autumn. Which will mean an inflationary depression. Real declines in global living standards.

That future portends a potential schism – a genuine multipolar moment, as the Strait is hived off to genuine Iranian control, under the aegis of Russia and China.

His message is simple: “Enjoy the beginning of summer…” While you still can.

Meanwhile, Andrew has turned his attention towards Broken Britain. With the Prime Minister now holed below the waterline, is there still any potential universe in which Britain avoids a big bond market shock?

What he’s calling The Madame Butterfly Effect explains how Jeffrey Epstein could crash the UK economy.

During the period in which Mandelson left politics (after 2010), a new form of political operator emerged. What Matt Stoller calls 'entrepreneurial brokers'.

An American gold mining company wishes to secure a stake in a new deposit in Siberia.

A major British political donor wants to raise capital for his son’s hedge fund.

An Italian politician might enjoy access to a luxury yacht twice a year.

Mandelson found himself 'fixing things'.

In the Unipolar world order, he says, nations specialised. Britain’s specialisation was financial services and openness to trade, which in turn allowed it to piggyback on US foreign policy.

This, however, led to deindustrialisation and to associated policies such as openness to high immigration.

But that system of integration, of the entrepreneurial brokers running things, is now capsizing, thanks to Epstein. The Labour Left will likely take charge after Starmer's resignation. They have no brokers. And no links into the real world of high level market traders who might smooth their passage.

Another cheery week.

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