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Edmund Fitton-Brown notes that Russia and China view a ceasefire as beneficial for weakening U.S. influence and entrenching Iranian power. Experts argue the Islamic Republic will never negotiate away its revolutionary pillars, including its militias and nuclear shield. The deal provides a rest period for Iran to rearm for future assaults. (16)

Edmund Fitton-Brown explains that a memorandum of understanding is expected to be signed in Geneva, focusing on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The deal includes a 60-day ceasefire but leaves critical issues like the nuclear file for later. Skeptics warn of secret annexes and deceptive Iranian propaganda. (15)1903 TEHRAN

Samuel Ben-Ur explains that the IDF controls 64% of Gaza, but Hamas remains in control of the remaining civilian population through torture and executions. The group refuses to disarm, as their existence is predicated on destroying Israel. Despite the elimination of top leaders, the organization's decentralized structure allows survival. (14)1910 GAZA

Bridget Toomey notes that despite the U.S.-Iran memo of understanding, the Houthis remain a threat, recently firing a drone at Eilat. The group maintains autonomy and does not feel bound by ceasefires. They continue to ban Israelimaritime navigation in the Red Sea, aiming for economic and psychological damage. (13)1958 YEMEN

David Daoud describes a ceasefire deal requiring Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River as "magical thinking" since the fighters are locals. While the IDF faces manpower limitations, Washington continues to pressure Prime Minister Netanyahu to accept a withdrawal regardless of Israeli security concerns. (12)BEIRUT

David Daoud explains that reports of an upcoming memo of understanding between the U.S. and Iran are contradicted by Israel's refusal to leave Lebanon. Iran aims to save Hezbollah, its most critical asset, while the U.S. seeks a modus vivendi with the regime at almost any cost. (11)1898 LEBANON

John Hardie notes that Jared Kushner and U.S. envoys have frequently visited Moscow to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict. Putin uses phone calls to flatter Trump and promote the idea that Russia is dominating the battlefield. The administration pressures Ukraine to concede Donbas, despite the military defense holding. (10)1892

John Hardie reports that Russia launched a massive barrage of 70 missiles and 600 drones against Kyiv, damaging a historic monastery. Simultaneously, Ukraine is conducting a "logistics lockdown" campaign to isolate Crimea by striking fuel convoys and bridges. Despite Russian gains near Kostiantynivka, Ukraine's manpower reforms are improving battlefield stability. (9)1896

Fraser Howie and Gordon Chang describe the Iran deal as a "repackaging of failure" and a humiliation for America. Markets are experiencing a relief rally due to AI and stabilizing oil prices, but fail to price in geopolitical damage. Allies now view the U.S. as an unreliable partner. (8)1935

Piero Tozzi and Gordon Chang discuss KMT official Jen Wen, who visited the U.S. to bolster her credentials but faced criticism for meeting individuals linked to the Communist Party. The visit highlighted debates over drone supply chains, as the U.S. encourages "non-red" technology to counter Chinese influence. (7)1935