NFL Week 1 Bets & Who Ya Got?! Ramblin Gamblin Thunder Dan- CHIT CHAT WEDNESDAY

Summary

The JTrain Podcast Host: Jared Freid
Guest: Ramblin’ Gamblin’ Thunder Dan
Episode: NFL Week 1 Bets & Who Ya Got?! Ramblin Gamblin Thunder Dan – CHIT CHAT WEDNESDAY
Date: September 10, 2025

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Episode Overview

In this lively "Chit Chat Wednesday," comedian Jared Freid welcomes back his good friend and the show's resident gambling expert, Ramblin’ Gamblin’ Thunder Dan. They dive deep into their annual tradition: breaking down NFL futures, discussing betting strategies, and sharing insights into football fandom with a dose of signature banter and humor. The episode is packed with bold predictions, betting advice, and relatable stories about juggling football obsession with adult responsibilities.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. NFL Betting Philosophy & Week 1 Overreactions (00:55 - 07:12)

• Week 1 is about Overreaction:
  Jared and Dan dissect how the first week of the NFL season often leads to wild, speculative narratives—like questioning legends (e.g., Belichick vs. Brady)—and urge listeners not to read too much into early results.
  Quote:

  • Jared: "Week one is overreaction Monday… weird things happen. And then we get to the end of the season and we go, remember when we thought that that team was the one?" (01:55)

• How Vegas Sets the Line & the Edge of AI:
  Dan talks about a friend’s new app using AI to compare the “true” line versus the public line, explaining how Vegas aims to balance bets for profit, not predict outcomes.
  Quote:

  • Dan: “What the line is, is based on betting. It’s based on what the dummies and the public think. ...But it’s not what Vegas thinks either. It’s just what Vegas thinks will make the money even on both sides.” (02:55)

• A Massive Week 1 Value Bet:
  Dan highlights one game where the app shows a massive 8-point discrepancy between the AI's line and Vegas's—Saints vs. Cardinals—underscoring the rarity of such a gap in the NFL.
  Quote:

  • Dan: “There’s one game on the board, it’s eight point difference… that is absolutely massive.” (04:52)

2. Changing Dynamics of Home Underdogs (06:02 - 07:12)

• Historically, betting home underdogs was a sound strategy, but with the explosion of legalized gambling and changing betting demographics, the edge has diminished.
  • Dan: “Home dogs were under 50% last year… 70% of favorites won the game outright.” (06:18, 06:49)

3. Balancing Football Fandom with Family Life (07:34 - 10:33)

• Jared jokes about Dan’s “prepping” for football season as a dad and husband, leading to a real discussion on integrating family and football—taking his son to games, involving the family, and making tradeoffs with his wife.

  • Dan: “You bring them in… I’m taking my son. ...It’s a master plan. ...But it’s been working out well and you know, we’re all excited for football.” (08:12, 09:06)

• On compromising:

  • Dan: “I try to not do both Monday and Thursday games. So that’s what I give up, I guess.” (10:01)
  • Jared: “Husband of the year, rambling gambling Thunderdan tries to give up Thursday and Monday as his trade off.” (10:22)

4. Setting Up a Football Social Scene (10:36 - 14:37)

• Dan explains his friend group’s rotating Sunday agenda, where each person gets a week to plan a football gathering—at homes, various bars, or even a party boat—highlighting adult friendship and community.

  • Dan: “Everyone gets one Sunday and they get to set the agenda.” (10:59)

• They discuss the realities of making new adult friends, especially via kids’ activities, comparing the process to dating.

  • Dan: “When it comes down to, which you might not know, is your kids, when you’re older, kind of find you adults that are...” (14:03)
  • Jared: “It’s very similar. ...It’s like you and I were dating.” (16:04)

5. NFL Division Winner Picks & Futures (16:39 - 39:59)

• AFC East:

  • Both pick the Bills.
    • Dan: “The Bills are… so close last year… I think they got better.” (17:07)

• AFC West:

  • Dan: Chiefs. Jared: Broncos, despite second-guessing following “everybody’s on them” logic.
    • Dan: “I think when you have a guy who’s an all-time great in his prime, it’s just hard to go here.” (23:26)

• AFC North:

  • Dan: Ravens (reluctantly, as a Steelers fan); Jared: Steelers.
    • Dan: “The hype of one team in [Baltimore] more than… ever… Super Bowl or bust this year…” (26:31)

• AFC South:

  • Dan: Jags; Jared: Texans, noting unpredictability and turnover in this division.
    • Dan: “This is probably the worst division in football… I’m gonna go with the Jags.” (27:51)

• NFC East:

  • Dan: Commanders; Jared: Giants (“talk about zigging while everyone zags”).
    • Dan: “Go, go look at [the Giants’] schedule and you wonder how they’re going to win five games.” (30:30)

• NFC West:

  • Dan: Cardinals (his “favorite sleeper”); Jared: 49ers.
    • Dan: “I love Arizona… their weapons on offense are really strong.” (33:34)

• NFC North:

  • Dan: Lions; Jared: Packers (talks up Jordan Love and defensive additions).
    • Jared: “I love the Packers.” (36:01)

• NFC South:

  • Dan: Falcons (but “keep an eye on Carolina”), Jared: Buccaneers.
    • Dan: “…I really like Bijan Robinson. ...I took a flyer on Bijan Robinson for MVP this year.” (37:16, 37:48)

6. Super Bowl Picks & MVP Flyers (40:15 - 41:58)

• Super Bowl:

  • Dan: Bills over Lions (repeats his pick from last year); Jared: Bills over Packers, aligning with his Jordan Love MVP flyer.
    • Dan: "They've been knocking at the door for too long... Josh Allen is the ultimate winner that hasn't won." (40:44)

• MVP Longshots:

  • Dan: Bijan Robinson (+15,000); Jared: Jordan Love
    • Dan: “He had more rushing touchdowns last year than Saquon Barkley did.” (37:48)

7. Lock of the Century & Gambling Wisdom (42:18 - 45:49)

• Dan's Lock:

  • Lamar Jackson’s rushing yards OVER (set around 750 yards), though wonders if “the books know something.”
    • Dan: “Sometimes that's a sign... do they think he's going to get hurt?” (43:06)

• Jared's Contrarian Pick:

  • KC Chiefs to miss the playoffs.
    • Jared: “KC to miss the playoffs. I think that’s worth, worth a look.” (45:02)

8. Game: “Who Ya Got?”—Football Social Dilemmas (46:22 - 51:18)

A humorous rapid-fire segment where Jared gives Dan tough choices about football-viewing companions.

• Highlights:
  • Dan's “least favorite guy”: “The guy clapping at the TV is the worst guy ever.” (47:28)
  • On shared appetizers during games: “No one better do that at the, the eight events we go to this year.” (50:58)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Thunder Dan on AI Betting Tools:
  “It kind of tells you... what the line should be versus what the line is… The spread between the mathematical line and the emotional line is where... our listeners here can make some real dough.” (03:12 - 04:40)

• Jared on Adult Friendship:
  “A lot of people are trying to make adult friends... Is it, do the wives get along? ...Do you do double dates with these people?” (13:08)

• On the Importance of the Offensive Line:
  Jared: "When you give the money to everyone but linemen... You got a car with no engine." (27:18)

• Social Rituals Around Football:
  Dan: “Everyone gets one Sunday and they get to set the agenda.” (10:59)

• Why Betting Lines Are Spooky Accurate:
  Jared: “…Taking a dart and throwing it at a dartboard and going whatever number it lands on, that's what we're going to make the spread. But it's not that. That just shows you how right they are.” (44:41)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:15 – Introduction of Thunder Dan; annual gambling episode begins
• 02:55 – Explanation of betting lines and AI-betting edge
• 04:52 – Notable Week 1 bet (Saints vs. Cardinals line difference)
• 08:24 – Integrating family with football fandom
• 10:59 – Adult football group "Sunday agenda" tradition explained
• 16:39-41:58 – Full rundown of NFL division and Super Bowl picks
• 42:30 – “Lock of the century” bets and gambling line analysis
• 46:22 – “Who Ya Got?” rapid-fire social scenario game

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Conclusion

Jared and Thunder Dan deliver a podcast that’s equal parts sports betting primer, football fandom confessional, and comedic exploration of friendship and adulthood. The episode is a must-listen for any NFL fan who likes a dash of humor in their analysis and practical insight into both the odds on the board and the real-life odds of adult social life. It's also a reminder to review their picks after the season—so all the “rambling gambling” can be put to the test.

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For those who missed it, this episode is packed with both sharp NFL takes and the camaraderie of two old friends who love the game—and the wager—almost as much as each other.

Transcript

[A]

Chit Chat Wednesday for you to listen to. I have a guess who will be your new boo. You're gonna love them, too. Chit Chat Wednesday. I hope you're having a good day today. I hope it's gonna be a perfect week, too. I hope you have a nice poo. It's a Ch Chat Wednesday, too. Hello and welcome to the J Train Podcast. This is J Train Jared Freed coming along from Delray Beach, Florida. That's right, every Wednesday is a Chit Chat Wednesday where I sit down with a comedian, an expert, a friend. Today I have two of those things. Friend and our resident gambling expert here on the J Train Cinematic Universe, Rambling Gamblin. Thunder Dan, thank you for coming back on the show. Great to see you, Thunder Dan.

[B]

Great to be back, Jared. How are you?

[A]

This is our annual gambling podcast that, I mean, I'm telling. Let's get ahead of it. It's coming out the week after week one. Do you want to make any week one predictions that we can make those predictions now because the week's already over. This is coming out the Wednesday after week one. What? Is there any predictions you have for week one that would surprise people?

[B]

I think so. And based on what I'm probably going to tell you after this, it would probably. I'm kind of talking against myself. But week one is different than a season, right?

[A]

So week one is overreaction. Monday, we're going to have a, you know, right now, Bill Belichick just lost his first game of the season. People are like, maybe he, you know, it wasn't him. Maybe it was all Brady. People are saying, maybe he's not the hall of Famer we thought he was. That's what happens week one. You get, you know, weird things happen. And then we get to the end of the season and we go, remember when we thought that that team was the one? Cause they, you know, blew out, you know, so and so. And, you know, in week one. So what do you got?

[B]

Yeah, so one that really stands out to me in week one. And, you know, I can get into a little bit of why, but have a friend who actually launched this app that is pretty cool.

[A]

And thunderdan comes on here selling, no.

[B]

I'm not pitching it. I'm not pitching it.

[A]

But this isn't Shark Tank. Okay. Okay. Where can we get the promo code?

[B]

Okay, I'm just using it. I'm just using it.

[A]

But what's the this?

[B]

It kind of tells you it has a ton of AI inputs and it tells you what they think. The line should be versus what the line is right now keep in mind what the line is, is based on betting. It's based on what the dummies and the public think. Right?

[A]

Right. Not us Sharps, not you and I, the pros.

[B]

But it's not what Vegas thinks either. It's just what Vegas thinks will make the money even on both sides.

[A]

So. So to the. The novice better out there, if you're not familiar, there's a line on every game and the line is the amount of points you are giving or you're taking. So you're. And, and what they're trying to do with the line, when they say the Patriots will beat the Bears by three, they want as much money being on the Patriots as they do on the Bears. They don't want uneven bets because then they could get killed. So they just want to make money on the act of betting, which is the vig. So they want to make that money and then whoever, you know, and then have equal on each side. So when they make a line, you're saying Vegas is trying to, you know, basically playing on the emotions. You when they say like the Cowboys get bet on. People bet on the Cowboys more than they bet on maybe the Cleveland Browns because the Cowboys are America's team. It's like betting on Coca Cola. You know, the everyday Jim and Joe would just put money on the Cowboys. So you, you're saying that there's this app that tells you what the line should be and, and the spread between the mathematical line and the emotional line is where you and I and our listeners here can make some real dough.

[B]

Yeah. So the one that I'm referring, not many stand out. Honestly. Most are within a half a point or a point which is really nothing. So but there's one game on the board, it's eight point difference and a.

[A]

Full point eight points.

[B]

So eight more than points. Eight points more than a touchdown. Yeah. In an NFL game is absolutely massive. Right. So I mean I think it's something like 30, 35 of NFL games are decided by 4 points or less. So huge percentage are in these tiny margins.

[A]

Right.

[B]

And so this is 8 point difference in the spread. So the game is the Arizona Cardinals are at the New Orleans Saints and most people think the Saints are going to be pretty bad, me included. But in this game the Saints are getting seven and they have the Saints minus one in the game. So.

[A]

So the move there, the Saints are just are a point better than the Arizona Cardinals if they're at home. And now they're receiving 87 points. So that's a huge swing. I mean, like, like off the charts. My favorite bet is a home underdog. I love a home dog.

[B]

Yeah, well, it's funny that you bring that up because I do as well. And I looked up some. Some numbers here before the season, and that bet actually hasn't been as good as you think.

[A]

Last season, it was pretty bad. I got crushed last season.

[B]

Yeah. Home dog. Home dogs were under 50% last year.

[A]

Last year was a bad year for the home dogs. But, you know, and. And some would say that you. You gotta throw away. You know, past performance doesn't indicate future results. But, like, over, like, 10 years, it was like home dogs is like the bet you make. But then last year is the first year that, like, gambling was nationalized, that everyone's gambling. So you could actually say that those numbers are out the window right away, kind of.

[B]

Yeah, I agree with that. But. But Also last year, 70 of home team, or, sorry, favorites won the game outright. So that's a pretty, pretty big number. And it's kind of been up around that 70 number. But what that's telling you is just that they won the game. It doesn't tell you that they covered the spread. They didn't cover spread.

[A]

I will be. I will be texting you every five minutes from the Saints game because this is a bet I'm going to do based on your recommend.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

You're listening right now or watching on YouTube. You can see how wrong rambling or right rambling gambling thunder Dan is how. Okay, before we get into what we have to talk about today.

[B]

Sure.

[A]

How do you prep? You know, you're a father of two. You. You're a married man. To all the women listening. Stay away from rambling gambling thunder Dan because he's happily married with a beautiful family. What. How do you prep the family that you're gonna go away till February? This is it for you. You. You're. You're not gonna be, you know, a, you know, an attentive father and husband while the season's going on. What's your. Like, last weekend?

[B]

Come on. That's.

[A]

It's like. No, no.

[B]

The reality is you break. You bring them in. Right. Okay, I'm going. I'm going to opening game. Steal. You know, I'm a Steelers fan. I'm going to Steelers, Jets. I'm taking my son. He's couldn't be more excited.

[A]

So you have brainwashed your son. This was kind of the plan. You have your son. Nobody is more excited for a football game. That's on TV that I've ever met. And how did you do that? How did. What was kind of the planning with this? And have you been able to get your daughter into, you know, the, the football game?

[B]

Yeah, we, we went to. We both went to Penn State together. We went to a game last year, Illinois game. It was a night game, a whiteout game. The whole family was there. My daughter, you know, she's. She's got the cheerleaders taking pictures with her. So.

[A]

So this is all part of the plan.

[B]

Exactly, yeah. It's a master plan. But it's been working out well and you know, we're all excited for football. Maybe me more and my son.

[A]

But what's the trade off with your wife? What do you. Is what are you giving up to have this football life that you lit, that you lead? Because this is Sundays stay away from, you know, from, from rambling gambling.

[B]

Now you're act, you're acting as if every other guy in America isn't doing the same thing, including they are.

[A]

No, I'm questioning you. You're the, you're the representative of the husbands. And I'm trying to. Maybe you're trading things that some of the guys listening don't know. Maybe you have some secrets. This is.

[B]

I will say things have changed a little bit over the years because I used to have to watch every game. There's just too many right now.

[A]

It's gotten out of control and how.

[B]

Late they're on on the east coast, it's. It's pretty brutal. So I, I really hone in on Sunday. I try to, I try to not do both Monday and Thursday games. So that's what I give up, I guess.

[A]

Husband of the year, rambling gambling Thunderdan tries to give up Thursday and Monday as his trade off.

[B]

That's right.

[A]

I love it. Listen, you're a saint.

[B]

But I will say solid group of friends that I have here where I live and they're, they're amped up for football as well. And we came up with a pretty good idea where there was a group of about eight of us. And our plan for this year is everyone gets one Sunday and they get to set the agenda.

[A]

Explain that to us because I like this, I like where this is going. So this is like when you're a senior in high school and every senior takes turns doing the pregame dinner. Is that kind of what this is like?

[B]

Yeah, except you're just having dinner each time. Like this could be out there. Like you could do anything. So whether that's you having everyone, you know to your house for, for a party. That's fine. There's certain bars that maybe some people poo poo on or others like. And so it's your, it's your turn. Like, whatever.

[A]

What's the first week? Who has the first week and what's the agenda?

[B]

Well, I'm going to be at the game, so I'm telling them to punt. In week one we got 17 weeks.

[A]

So we're already off. Off track.

[B]

Yeah, we're not, we're not doing one. But. But yeah, there's. There's a couple of bars. There's actually a boat. As you know, I live down the Jersey shore and there's a, there's a boat that you out and they have TVs like a party boat with TVs on. So that was one that we looked into that I think will be done this season.

[A]

Is there like a play place like at McDonald's for the kids? What are the. Or do they just hang out on. Are they just sitting on the mast on the sale like those, you know, those old pictures of.

[B]

I haven't looked into whether or not this one. That's for kids. Perhaps not, but. Yeah, but that's one, you know, a couple different bars. You know, there's. There's bar. There's a bar that has a golf bays, you know, in it where people can, you know, hit. Hit golf balls and they got the TVs everywhere. I mean there's, there's a million different options used to live in the city and you know, there's the million different things. So I think it'd be a cool way to experience a lot of different setups.

[A]

I like the idea. I like that there's a group of like eight of you that like, hey, I'm in charge week one. So week one we're not doing it. It's really going to start week two where someone's going to take the reins of.

[B]

Yeah. What has been. Hasn't been decided yet. Undecided.

[A]

What if someone wanted to break into this group? I mean, like, we have a lot of people that are trying to make adult friends. Like how, like if I move to town, like, and I'm new in, in this Jersey shore, you know, Eden, that you live in the, this beach life that you've created for yourself.

[B]

Oh, as if you're not right there, Mr. Mr. Florida Man. Okay.

[A]

Mr. Del Rey. I'm the Duke of Del Rey. I. What. How would, how do you create this group? Is it. Do the wives get along. Is that part of it? Is it. Do you do double dates with these people? Is this. I'm very. I'm fascinated to hear about your new friendships that you've made since our friendship.

[B]

That you thought I was just holding out for you. Right.

[A]

I thought it was just us. I didn't realize there was this whole other group.

[B]

Yeah, no.

[A]

Maybe that's why you don't answer on the group chat with the Penn State people. You're too busy with this other group.

[B]

No, what I'm. Most of the time, when it comes down to, which you might not know, is your kids, when you're older, kind of find you adults that are.

[A]

I've heard this. It's the kids. Ages matter. Like, you gotta match up. You better hope they have a good class.

[B]

I have some friends with that don't have kids that are, you know, our age. And honestly, it's sometimes hard to meet people in a new town if you. If you live there or something. But with the kids, you know, you just see the same people over and over again and stuff like that. And then you realize who's similar to you and likes to, you know, like.

[A]

Does it matter if the kid's a good athlete or not? Like, you don't want to be with, you know, the parents of the nerds.

[B]

You know, doesn't matter. Doesn't matter that. That doesn't matter. But, you know, you. You'll be surprised. You find people similar to.

[A]

So.

[B]

So how you and I are.

[A]

I know. Well, let's see. Let's do a little improv here. I'm one of the dads at the soccer game, and you just come up to me, and we've seen each other a bunch of times. What's it like?

[B]

Yeah, you think. You think we're role playing right now?

[A]

Let's do a little role play. Let's.

[B]

Yeah. So.

[A]

Hey, man, how you been?

[B]

Hey, sweetheart. How's that. That pink is popping. Come on, Jared, you know that's not what I do.

[A]

Boy, you're real social. Butterfly. Thunder. Rambling, Gambling. Thunderdance.

[B]

That's not what it would be. So that. Yeah, it's not. You're not, like, approaching them. You're. You're talking about what. What's going on at the game or whatever.

[A]

Who you got? Okay, I get it. Okay.

[B]

So you're a dating expert. It's pretty similar to that.

[A]

You know, it's got to be a little bit similar. I mean, I was just in Providence, and there's a guy that I played golf with two Years ago, and we met via just going and playing randomly on a public course. Two years later, he's texting me, are we playing again? And I said, great. And he said that, like. And then I had him at the show two years ago, and I had him back with his wife, and he was saying that he had told people about, you know, how we met. And he's like. He's like, I always tell the story. It's like. It's like you and I were dating. And I'm like, yeah, that's exactly. It's very similar.

[B]

And it's. You know, it's hard to stay in touch. You know, we have a lot of friends from high school, college, and stuff, and it takes effort to do that. But, you know, I think we all put that in, and, you know, then you get new friends, and then you get to meet them, and then, you know, it's all. It's all good. So.

[A]

Okay. I'm realizing why I haven't heard back from rambling Gambling Thunder. Danny's got this whole new.

[B]

Well, now football's starting. You'll be hearing a lot of me.

[A]

I'm gonna text you about the Saints this weekend every five minutes. I already told you. Okay, so we want your picks for the season. These are called future bets. We want you to pick division champions, winners. Who you got winning the AFC East.

[B]

AFC East. I'm going with the Bills.

[A]

You and I are aligned. I got the Bills, too. I think that conference got worse. It is. What do you think?

[B]

Yeah, I agree. I think the Bills are. I mean, they were so close last year, and, you know, I think they got better. I did watch their Hard Knocks, and you know how that pulls your heart.

[A]

You're the only one I actually Googled. I was like, who's the Hard Knocks? And it was the Bills. And I was like, I've heard nothing about this. I feel like we used to hear about more.

[B]

Yeah, I think it's. There's just so many things. Like, in the past three weeks, if you look at all the football shows that are on TV trying to get you ready for the season, you got the Cowboys one on Netflix. You got the SEC one on Netflix. You got. I mean, there's. There's a million shows.

[A]

Kansas City 1 on Netflix, the quarterback show, you know. Right.

[B]

There's all these things. So I think it's. We're getting a little saturated, and that's. That's probably why.

[A]

Is there anyone on the Bills from that show that stood out that you were like, I'm Cheering for this guy.

[B]

Oh, yeah, they got this guy named Buffalo Joe. He's a linebacker. He's from Buffalo.

[A]

Really?

[B]

Buffalo.

[A]

I thought when you said Buffalo Joe, I thought you were a fan of a fan that like goes to the game and wears a Buffalo hat or something.

[B]

Trust me, I'm fans of a lot of the folks from Buffalo. Great, great fan base there. Yeah.

[A]

You're a big Buffalo fan. Yeah, you.

[B]

Well, as I've told you before, and I think in previous ones, all the rust belt cities are the best fan bases in football. It's. It's Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Green Bay. Yeah.

[A]

There's two ways to think of that. There's their great fan bases or there's they have nothing else and this is the only thing they can focus their energy on.

[B]

I think both are true.

[A]

Okay. Okay.

[B]

Most of the time a little more blue collar, you know.

[A]

And you do love a blue collar guy.

[B]

Sure.

[A]

Probably a big part of how you make the friends. You go, let me see who came to this soccer practice with his.

[B]

Yeah. Who's got their lunch pail coming to soccer practice. Right.

[A]

Who came dressed as the Pittsburgh Steeler mascot. Okay, so let's go to the afc. So we're a line. We both have the Bills, but keep.

[B]

An eye on this guy, Buffalo Joe. It's an amazing story. He's like a walk on type of guy.

[A]

Really, everyone. Where'd he go to college?

[B]

He's. He's really good. I can't remember where he went to college, but he was. He's actually like plays for them now and stuff. It's his second year. I think he got hurt, but so, yeah, keep an eye out for him.

[A]

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[A]

The AFC west. Who you got the AFC West?

[B]

I'm. I'm going with the Chiefs again. I tried to get cute last year with the Chargers, and, you know, I think when you have a guy who's an all time great in his prime, it's just hard to go here.

[A]

Here's the thing. The Chiefs are the pick that, you know, they're turning into the Patriots, where you get tired of pick and you look for reasons not to pick them rather than reasons to pick them. And I am guilty of that because I'm picking the Broncos and because you hear a lot of like, they're like the new kid in town. They're the new, like, new hot chick that just got to, you know, just moved here because right now there's a lot of Broncos talk. And I think I've been wooed because I'm picking the Broncos.

[B]

That was me last year with. With the Chargers. And I do think everyone I talk to, it's. It's the Broncos. So I would keep an eye out on the Chargers. I think they actually got a lot better. Lad McConkey, tight end or the receiver is awesome. They. They got new running back as well. I think the Chargers would be another one. But that's one of those divisions. We can go through this, but there's about three. Three divisions in. In the NFL where they're just loaded and it could be one of the three teams that win. And I think all three might make the playoffs. And this is one of those divisions.

[A]

For me, that one is loaded. I. I mean, I just can't believe rambling Gambling Thunder Dan is going against his own sources who tell him that the Broncos are the team. And you're saying.

[B]

What I'm saying is all the dummies. If everyone's on them, then you run to the hill.

[A]

I know that. That's the problem. I. The minute I picked the Broncos, I said, jared, you are.

[B]

You know better than this.

[A]

I know better than this, but I'm going with him. Okay.

[B]

Okay. Fair enough.

[A]

AFC north, who you got? I can make a bet on who he's gonna pick.

[B]

Well, no, I, I did that last year. I. It was off to a hot start. I'm. I'm not doing it this year. I'm going, I'm going with the Ravens.

[A]

That's gotta hurt you as a Steelers fan.

[B]

I think the Steelers are going to have a great year. I think Aaron Rodgers, I. Before they signed him, I was on him. I think he's still got some left. I think the jets are a joke. I think you thought their season, last.

[A]

Season were more jets problems than Aaron Rodgers problems.

[B]

I mean, when you go back and look at Brett Favre when he went to the jets, total flop. Then he goes to Minnesota, he's in the NFC championship game the next year. Then you got Geno Smith, complete bust at quarterback, right? Oh, wait, he leaves now he's a starter. Then you got Sam Darnold. He stinks.

[A]

Right?

[B]

Leaves big contract.

[A]

Right. What is the constant here?

[B]

The Jets. So I think Aaron Rodgers in a stable organization, he still can sling it, you know, I think, I think they're going to be good.

[A]

So you're taking the Ravens, but I'm taking the Ravens.

[B]

I am. I think. I mean, if you go to Baltimore right now. I have some friends in Baltimore. I mean I've, I've almost never seen hype of one team in that town more than Baltimore is this year. Wow. I mean, it's not even when the division or bust. It is super bowl or bust this year to, to a degree I haven't seen.

[A]

And here's the thing. You go with the best quarterback, that's usually a good play. And I can't believe we're on different sides of this because I take the Steelers, I'm. I'm going to ride. I'm going to ride Steely McBeam this season. I got the Steelers. But I listen, I hope you are too. Okay. So let's go.

[B]

There's a third one there too. I mean, we're both not picking Joe Burrow, who might be the best quarterback in that division.

[A]

I will listen. Joe Burrow. I wanted. There was a moment where I was thinking of the Cincinnati Bengals, but I was like, he has no offensive line and I mean pretty bad and the defense stinks. So I, I think like of the, you know, like when you give the money to everyone but lineman. You got, you know, got car with no engine. You gotta, you gotta like look at the Eagles.

[B]

They build it from the lines out. How. Well, that's. Yeah. D.N. offensive line.

[A]

So let's go to the South. Who you got?

[B]

Yeah, this is probably the worst division in football and. But I'm gonna go with the Jags. Jacksonville. Oh, yeah.

[A]

Listen, I hit the bell. Rambling Gambling? No, because I. You and I probably had the same thought process because I'm taking the Texans, but it's. Because it's too obvious. It's. It's got to be a switch at this division where the AFC south, there's always a switch. It's one of those divisions that never stays consistent. No, there's. No. There's always something weird. I. I'm with you, but I'm not with you right now.

[B]

I know. And I feel that obviously this. This does remind me of the Chiefs pick, because it's like it can't be the Texans every year. Can't be the Chiefs every year. So I realize there's some inconsistencies there, but there's things I like about Jacksonville. I. I like Trevor Lawrence. I think he hasn't reached his potential. I think he could have a breakout year.

[A]

If it ain't this season, it's no seasons. It's over for sure.

[B]

And then you see what they've done at running back. I mean, they. They brought in, you know, they have now 3gu. ETN is not going to be getting every carry there. And they have, you know, two other guys that they're. Bigsby and what. Tootin, I think, is the guy's name that they. Is a rookie. And they like both of them. So I think. I think they're gonna have a really good offense. They've had some disappointing years, but I think. I think it's time for them. And I'm just. The Texans, I mean, come on, they play the same Saturday playoff game every year.

[A]

I just think that we don't like to. The quarterback's name. What's his name? I. I don't think we realize how good he actually is. I think he was overlooked last year because of Jalen On. Jalen Daniels. Am I Jaden Daniels? Yeah, Daniels on. On the Commanders. But he was still good for the Texans last year.

[B]

No, they've been good. They've been pretty consistent. But, you know, as we talked about, I think last year, the turnover in these divisions, it's. It's something like 40% new, new divisional winners each year. So if we're just doing chalk from last year, it's not going to pan out.

[A]

It's not going to work. Okay. NFC east, who you got? And. And I mean, talk about zigging while everyone else is zagging. I have a. I have a choice here, but go ahead.

[B]

Yeah, I'm going with the Commanders. Is that who you have?

[A]

No, I got the Giants. I think this. Wow. I have The Giants. I think it's going to be a weird one.

[B]

That's a. I mean, that is. The Cowboys are done to Vegas and put a nice sum of money on that because the Giant schedule is the hardest schedule in the NFL. It's really brutal. Brutal. Go, Go. Look at their schedule and you wonder how they're going to win five games. But I agree with you. They are going to be better. Their. Their defense is going to be not fun to play against for the opponent. I mean, they have a great defensive line. They got some young, young guys. I like the running back. Tracy, I agree with you, but they are in a brutal, brutal schedule.

[A]

So you're taking the commanders. You're saying last year wasn't a fluke. The Eagles were not. We're forgetting about the reigning super bowl champions.

[B]

Yeah, I don't. I think we've talked about. I can't pick them, but can't do it.

[A]

Can't do it. But he can leave his family for a full Sunday, but he can't pick the Eagles.

[B]

Sure. The Eagles. It's hard to. It's hard to repeat. It's hard to keep that, you know.

[A]

Motivation, especially for them.

[B]

Style that they do it, you know.

[A]

Their style and also the bravado of the coach. Like, they. They have storylines that just float around them that get exhausting. I think that they have, you know, in the way the Patriots kind of stood back, and then towards the end, it got like, okay, you can't keep this up. Being the front page news. The Eagles, it's always something. Even this summer, there were, like, people complaining that the quarterback wasn't the reason they won. It was like, such an annoying story.

[B]

Totally. Yeah. I mean, like, we talked about their lines. Great. The running back's great. I think their defense is going to be the biggest drop off this year, though. So, yeah, I'm going with. Go with the young, hot commanders.

[A]

That's. That's rambling gambling. Okay. The West. Who you got?

[B]

This is my. This is my favorite sleeper team of the season.

[A]

I wonder if we're aligned.

[B]

It's the Arizona Cardinals.

[A]

Whoa.

[B]

And is that who you have?

[A]

No, no, no. We. We are not aligned here.

[B]

Yeah. So I love Arizona. I think, you know, they. They might have the best wide receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr. Like, I mean, I think he's ready to take that step this year. Trey McBride is the guy no one knows who might be the best player in the NFL that no one knows about. He's the tight end from there. He had something like 120catches last year. I mean he's amazing. And so their weapons on offense are really strong. They still got James Conner and that's another one of these divisions where, I mean, obviously the 49ers could have a bounce back year. The Rams were awesome last year. I mean I love their system and Pukinakua and running back Williams and so. But I'm going with Arizona.

[A]

Arizona is my favorite team to bet on. I think that they get under appreciated by the public every week and they get like there's a lot of extra points. So I, I'm a big gambler on the Cardinals. I think the 49ers, no one's even talking about them. They didn't really lose much. Like they were injured all season last season. Totally. They didn't lose much. All they lost was the receiver, but he was always out anyways.

[B]

He's always injured. Yeah, it's true. But the 49ers are the favorite to win that division, believe it or not. Really from the odds. Yeah. But I, I think, you know, McCaffrey's, it seems like he's winding down a bit. They did go and get Robinson from the commander, so that'll, you know, that'll help because it seems like you need, you need to have a good number two running back there because McCaffrey gets hurt so much.

[A]

The Seahawks too. The Seahawks are pretty good.

[B]

There's, I'm telling you, the AFC West, NFC west are. And, and really the AFC north with the Steelers, Bengals and Ravens, that, those are the three divisions for me. And actually the other north as well, which we can get to on the next one.

[A]

Let's do it right now. NFC north, who you got?

[B]

I mean, this one's brutal too because you'd know the Bears are going to have a bounce back year. You know, the Lions, I hope for.

[A]

My family's sake, I hope the Bears do better.

[B]

Exactly. We're rooting for, we're rooting for them secretly for sure. But the Lions, you know, disappointment from last year, still loaded. They lost their coordinators. That's the, that's the tough part about the Lions. And that happens when you're good in the NFL. You lose your coaches and stuff. So. But yeah, I think I'm going to go with the Lions.

[A]

So you're taking the Lions?

[B]

I am. And I think Minnesota one to come back from. Minnesota takes a step back. I think, you know, new quarterback Green Bay could be a little better and I think the Bears are going to be a lot better.

[A]

So I think the Bears Gonna be a lot better. I, I, I cheer for the Bears, but I think the packers are like really good. Like, I mean to add Micah Parsons when they looked like they were going to be good anyways, like their offense is always pretty good. I think Jordan Love, like easily overlooked because of how he came into the league. It is, that's my pick. I love the Packers.

[B]

I'm not sold. I, I don't think I could deal with Jordan Love for a whole season. I think in games he does, he shows flashes. Packers are a team I try to stay away from because I can't figure them out. Honestly, I can't figure them out. I think he's so up and down came to game.

[A]

But who do you got in the South? The last division.

[B]

Yeah. See this one's really difficult for me as well. I, I, I like, I like Carolina a lot this year.

[A]

Wow.

[B]

But I am gonna go with the Falcons. Okay. I think Michael Penix gets his full year. You know Bijan Robinson, he looked good too. Tight end. Yeah. So I'm gonna go with, I'm gonna go with them. But keep an eye out for Carolina. They're going to have a big bounce back year.

[A]

We are not aligned. I'm on the Bucks. I think the Buccaneers, this is another division that now the more we talk about it, I'm like, there's some pretty good teams here. Like the Bucks were pretty good last season.

[B]

Like this division's gotten better for sure. You can tell the Saints.

[A]

Mayfield always overlooked.

[B]

The Saints seem to be getting worse, I think. Except for week one. Except for week one. But, but yeah, that I think I just, I really like Bijan Robinson. I mean I can get to that. But I took a flyer on Bijan Robinson for MVP this year. People don't realize this. Did you know he had more rushing touchdowns last year than Saquon Barkley did?

[A]

Really?

[B]

He had 14. Barkley had 13.

[A]

So that's your MVP choice.

[B]

That's what I'm taking a flyer on. He's plus 15,000. So that means you do a ten dollar bet or you do a hundred dollar bet, you win 15,000. If he wins it, it's a lot of value.

[A]

As they say, my mvp. I got Jordan love. I think that's a good value bet too. That would pay. I think if they end up being as good as they could be. Like you get this defensive help there. The, here's, here's why though. Like the packers are like the Steelers. They're a conservative team. They don't make. That's Not a Jerry Jones team. That's not a Atlanta Falcons. We signed the hot person. They took a shot. They must think they have the team.

[B]

Yeah. But I will say some of these teams that have traditionally, you know, made their money drafting and building and not really through free agency, which is the, like you mentioned the packers, the Steelers, you know, for a long time was. The Giants. They've kind of changed their ways. There's been turnover. Like, Steelers are making splashes all over the place. I mean, they brought in Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Rodgers and DK Metcalf and all these guys, and the packers are kind of doing that, too. So I think things are a little different now in the league. And, and you could say they're, you know, these teams are. They need to win now, so they're taking shots. And, and I think, yeah, but the whole thing with Michael Parsons is interesting to me is, like, is he hurt?

[A]

I mean, like, it seems as though maybe not.

[B]

It seems like they might have gotten away with, with one there, you know, if his back is what they're saying it is, so that'll be interesting. I'm sure there'll be lawsuits on that if that happens. But.

[A]

Oh, they're saying he's hurt. Is that.

[B]

They're saying that they're. Potentially, there's a, there was a back issue, you know, but you would think all that would have to be disclosed. So I don't know. But, but Michael Parsons, you know, we love him from Penn State. Of course, I have to be, I have to be fair. When you want. When I watched him last year, he takes 30 of the plays off. He does. You know, T.J. watts, those guys with motors.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

What? Their motors never stop. Michael Parsons, like, his motor seems to go on when he wants to put.

[A]

It on, but when it's on.

[B]

Unbelievable.

[A]

Yeah, he's, he's the whole defense. He's everywhere.

[B]

He wrecks the game. Yeah.

[A]

Who is your super bowl matchup and winner?

[B]

Yeah, I, I, I know you're not going to like this, but I got to do it. I am doing a repeat of my pick from last year. Bills, Lions.

[A]

Come on, Bill's Lions. Gambling, repeating Dan Thunder. Dan. Is that what I got? I got on the show?

[B]

Well, we both, I think, missed the picks last year. Right. We didn't super bowl, so it's a tough pick. But, But I will say this. The, the Bills, they've been knocking at the door for too long. Like, they have the team. They got the guy they, they built around them. They got more offensive weapons I just, to me, Josh Allen is like the ultimate winner that hasn't won. And I just can't, I can't see him not getting past that hump.

[A]

Well, Rambling Gambling Thunder Dan, I am aligned. I got the Bills winning it all. I'm with you. I, I have Bills, Packers. I think the only way I get to my Jordan Love MVP is if it's very parlaying all of these all together. I'm going to put them all together in one bet. So I, I feel you on the Bills. I think like it's either there. I think for the Bills, you're going to get like the season of their dreams. This is it. Or they don't even make the playoffs. Like at some point with a lot of NFL teams, there's that one season where they get like the Lions. The Lions are either going to be like really good again or it's all going to fall apart.

[B]

There's a perfect analogy for Josh Allen and the Bills and it was Peyton Manning against Tom Brady. And Mahomes is Tom Brady right?

[A]

Yes.

[B]

Peyton Manning couldn't get past Tom Brady until he got past Tom Brady and then he won two Super Bowls. That right.

[A]

Right away.

[B]

So I just, I see that kind of similar.

[A]

What's your lock of the century? This is a bet that's different than all the other something that someone can go. This is the bet I'm going to make. I'm going to run with Rambling Gamble and Thunder Dan.

[B]

Well, the one for me that doesn't make any sense and sometimes that's a sign, you know, we'll let the listeners.

[A]

Know that the gambling gods are a fickle bunch.

[B]

Yeah, the, the, the rushing yards for Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson had 900 and some yards last year. He's had a thousand. He set the record, you know, in previous years. His, you would think his would be at least what it was last year, if not more. It's around 750, depending on where you're getting it this year. And that just seems really low.

[A]

Right.

[B]

And it makes me, it makes me think, do they think he's going to get hurt? Because that's the whole factor that you have to keep in mind if you're betting on a running quarterback is they could get hurt.

[A]

So this is one of those instances where gamblers talk about Vegas and the, the gambling line makers. Like people talk about the algorithm. Like for you. Because if gamblers, if they see a weird line, they're like, what do they know that I don't know? Somebody knows something because here's the thing.

[B]

About give away money.

[A]

No, they don't just give away money. And they're, they are within like a point of what the. So many times like Penn State just beat Nevada.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

100 to nothing or something. And they still didn't cover. And it's like, how did they know? You go, how could they ever know be this close? But they're always close. And they're close enough to think that they're actually godlike. That is. That is every gambler's like has given up all.

[B]

What's, what's cool about it is this is all pre AI. Right. Like, right. These are actual guys that were making the line.

[A]

Yeah. People. These are real people, mathematicians.

[B]

I'm sure it's changing, but. Sure. For now that's what it is. So it is, it is funny. And you're right. The Penn State game, What was like 20 seconds left, there's a pass interference call in the end zone and. And they cover the spirit. Nevada scores to a garbage touchdown. To cover the spread.

[A]

It's to cover like a 30 point spread. Like, like you 40, 42. I think it was 42. So that, that's to me making it a 42 point spread is taking a dart and throwing it at a dartboard and going whatever number it lands on. That's what we're going to make the spread. But it's not that. That just shows you how right they are. Okay.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

My. My rambling gambling Dan's lock of the century. My off menu bet KC to miss the playoffs.

[B]

Wow.

[A]

Take Casey to miss the playoffs. I think.

[B]

What's it pay?

[A]

Do you know, I haven't even looked. I. I think that's worth, worth a look.

[B]

Yeah. Well, what I will say is I always think about. I know exactly where I was standing, Jared, when Tom Brady got hurt in week one. And the cheer that erupted in that bar that I was in back in, I want to say that was like 2007, maybe something like that.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Or 8. Yeah. And I remember exactly where I was. And yeah, I mean maybe I was one of those guys. I do like him much more now. But the point is.

[A]

Announcer, you like Brady as an announcer.

[B]

I just, I think I have much more respect for him now that he can't beat me, you know, but.

[A]

Sure, this guy, this guy's got kids, he's teaching.

[B]

But, but I think that, you know, the injury is a factor and that's what people forget about some of these future bets is one injury. That bet is a garbage. Your parlay of all your Green Bay bets with, you know, Jordan Love, and he gets hurt in week one. It's over.

[A]

Game over. You might as well take the ticket and burn it on fire. Okay, so let's play a quick game. This has been great, everyone. Make sure we come back to this episode after the season and we see how well rambling gambling did. I want to play a game called who you got? Okay, I'm going to give you the choice between two people. Okay. Who you got to watch the game with? Who would you rather watch the game with? You ready? Guy who claps at the tv or guy who encourages his section to stand up during the game? So who would you rather watch the game with? Guy who's, like, in front of the TV going, let's go. When they can't even hear them, or guy who's like, get up. Come on, get up. And it's the third quarter, and the play doesn't matter. Get up. What, are you guys, not fans? Get up. Who would you rather watch the game with?

[B]

They're both bad. I acknowledge that. But definitely option two, the guy clapping at the TV is the worst guy ever.

[A]

Yeah, I'm with you. At least there's a game going on. At least they're in the spirit of the atmosphere year.

[B]

And you don't have to get up, so.

[A]

Right. And you don't have to get up. And guy clapping the TV is ruining the whole bar. Like, he's actually ruining a time. Okay.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

Guy who tells you about his gambling wins, only talks about the wins. Or guy who gives you crap for wearing a team hat that isn't his team. So you walk into the bar with a Steelers hat. Oh, loser. Yeah, that guy's the worst. Or the guy who's like, I just keep winning. I'm just, I'm, I've won every bet today.

[B]

I like that guy better. I, I, I would, I would find a lot of banter with that guy. Just be like, oh, really? You know, tell me about all your bets. Let me actually see your phone real quick.

[A]

Right.

[B]

And then you can find all his, his losses.

[A]

How much are you up?

[B]

Let's check, let's check your history. There's an easy way to do that in FanDuel. Let's check your career history. When you're down, like, a hundred thousand.

[A]

Dollars, you make a great point. There's more places for the conversation to go with guy who lies about his gambling wins than it is because guy who goes, what hat are you wearing? It's a conversation stopper.

[B]

Yeah, I don't want to talk to him.

[A]

Right. Woman who knows nothing about the game but says in your face every time her boyfriend's team does something good. Or woman who says, go sports every time someone cheers during the game.

[B]

I mean, probably I'd take the second one because the ghost. I'd find humor out of that. Yeah.

[A]

I mean, it would be annoying, and then the joke would be funny because she's done it by the fifth time she does it. It would be funny.

[B]

Yeah. See, I know some. I know a couple people who are good, Good friends, family friends where they'll don't intentionally try to bring up sports to talk about. And no, they know. They know zero. They don't know one thing, but they still do it just to. To try to get the conversation going. And. And it's. It's pretty funny, honestly, but it's.

[A]

It's annoying. It's.

[B]

It's like, I. I wouldn't do that on topics that I don't know about, so.

[A]

Right. And. And it's almost like we can talk about other things that we connect on. I. Or it also tells you exactly what they think of you.

[B]

Dealing with this problem. Yeah.

[A]

Right. You're. You're. The only thing you could ever talk about is sports is actually demeaning to you and your intelligence. They're like, they're. They're not going to talk about a book they read. They're going to go, it's Dan, we better talk about Steely McBean, the mascot Steelers.

[B]

I'm just a caricature. Sure.

[A]

Okay. Would you rather shared appetizers during a game or. Everyone gets their own.

[B]

Probably share appetizers. Yeah, that's. Get a little sampler going.

[A]

There's no other answer than yeah, during a game. No one's. If you get.

[B]

During a game. Yeah.

[A]

If a person came to a hangout and was like, I'm gonna get just a meal and I'll pay for my own, I would be like, we should get rid of this person.

[B]

Get out. Yeah, they're out. They're out of the group. No one. No one better do that at the, the eight events we go to this year.

[A]

Listen, I'm gonna come. I, I. Tell me I want to come to one of the eight events. I want to.

[B]

It's not an exclusive thing. More than.

[A]

Sounds pretty exclusive. I. It sounds like that's your interpretation, but.

[B]

J Train's always got an invite.

[A]

Rambling Gambling Thunder. Dan, thank you for coming back on the J Train podcast. We always appreciate you and your prognostications and thank you. We will be back next week. Boom.