Podcast
The Julia La Roche Show
Hosted by Julia La Roche · EN
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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#378 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Warsh Gets 9/10, Finally "Fed Up Too," Removes Dot Plot
Jun 1800:30:37Tap to summarizeIn this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, gives Kevin Warsh a 9 out of 10 on his first FOMC meeting and press conference, saying "it sounds like he's fed up too" after witnessing a dramatic departure from Powell's approach. Warsh delivered a remarkably short statement (140 words vs Powell's 341 words), removed the dot plot entirely ("show don't tell"), eliminated forward guidance, and created five task forces including communications overhaul, data exploration, and inflationary frameworks review. Danielle was thrilled he's revisiting the arbitrary 2% inflation target, moving away from core PCE (which she calls "a bunch of BS" because stock market gains inflate the metric), and exploring trim mean inflation instead. Warsh went to a grocery store asking people if Fed policy actually helps with gas, beef, and egg prices—demonstrating he understands Fed policy cannot address supply-driven inflation. He called non-farm payroll data "echoes of history" and demanded accountability, slamming the NBER for being "derelict in their duty" to call recessions when bankruptcy filings are up 38% year-over-year and personal bankruptcies surged 8%. Danielle warns the market is "calling his bluff" after today's sell-off, notes no junk bonds have been sold in 41 days signaling credit stress, and says to watch the MOVE index and credit spreads closely as the next tell. She's cautiously optimistic but "wait and see," drawing comparisons to Powell's 2018 pivot when he reversed course after market pain. Warsh managed a unanimous vote despite the aggressive reform agenda.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Fed day with Danielle DiMartino Booth 1:37 Statement very short - 140 words vs Powell's 341, "fed up too"2:14 No forward guidance, removed dot plot - "show don't tell"3:13 Warsh strategic approach - "I'm going to fix this broken institution"5:20 Five task forces including communications and inflationary frameworks7:48 Revisit 2% inflation target - Arbitrary and unnecessary14:10 Rate cuts - most traders on Kalshi expect zero16:57 Markets lower today, Wall Street calling his bluff17:51 Bankruptcies up 38.4% year over year, personal up 8%19:00 NBER derelict in recession calling - Should have called 202524:43 Non-farm payroll data unreliable until third revision - "echoes of history"26:09 Financial markets work best reacting to real data, not Fed speak27:20 Overall impression 9 out of 10, cautiously optimistic29:15 Watch MOVE index and credit spreads for next signal30:00 Warsh got unanimous vote - Corralled all governors
Transcribe →#377 Ted Oakley: We're Toward The End, Late Stage Market, Lemmings Everywhere
Jun 1600:45:01Tap to summarizeIn this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, warns the market is exhibiting all the markings of late stage using a Warren Buffett 1999 quote: "when you get to the point where every single thing that people do, any kind of strategy is up in the market...you're probably toward the end." He describes it as a "lemmings market" where followers are piling in, notes IPOs are bursting (90% lose money over 135 years), and reveals the Mag 7 is mostly down since November with only semiconductors rallying. Oakley warns baby boomers are "brain dead" and way over-invested in stocks at historic highs as a percentage of assets—if a bear market hits like 2000-2003 (down 55%), they lack the liquidity to sustain their lifestyle during down years. He's adding back gold after it corrected from $5,500 to $4,000, buying copper and natural gas as plays on AI infrastructure needs, and positioning for a commodity supercycle in early innings driven by countries hoarding raw materials. Oakley reveals energy is "dramatically cheap" with 6-8% dividends, oil reserves are depleted, and he's building a "well to the end" strategy with producers and pipelines that "can't be replaced"—like railroads. He explains gold is becoming the new currency reserve as countries dump treasuries for gold, warns private credit is a blowup risk at 11.75% rates, and emphasizes that for SpaceX windfall employees, they should take money off the table and ice enough for life. His parting advice: stick with your principles and don't let the hype throw you off.Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Opening and introduction1:23 Market assessment 2:40 IPOs3:49 Late stage market indicators 7:14 Added back gold after trimming early year, mining stocks down 30%8:05 Copper and natural gas needed for AI infrastructure8:25 Companies on fundamentals, not macro chasing11:16 Next 10 years commodity-based market12:51 Commodity supercycle early innings18:54 Energy thesis21:47 Gold thesis - Currency reserve replacing treasuries28:30 Bifurcated economy29:18 Baby boomers way overinvested32:30 Everybody's in market more than any time37:25 Biggest risk - Government nobody believes in39:53 Private credit issue 42:24 SpaceX windfall employees - Take some off table44:07 Parting thoughts - Stick with your principles
Transcribe →#376 Chris Whalen: The Markets Know There's A Problem, Trump Admin Doesn't, Rationing Ahead
Jun 600:30:13Tap to summarizeIn this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen reveals an "explosive" John Dizard interview dropping next week on rationing of synthetic lubricants for turbines and hybrid cars before the midterms, while the Trump administration stays blind to the supply crisis from destroyed Persian Gulf refineries. Markets are already processing the damage, but the Trump admin lacks the organization to prepare Americans for coming energy rationing and diesel shortages. Whalen argues the Fed is "powerless" against external war-driven shocks, yet double-digit inflation is "locked in" for certain categories. He's taking profits on AI stocks (AMD, ARM) after 150-200% gains, bought back into Chevron, and declares Bitcoin "toast" as the crypto bubble bursts. He warns communities blocking data center projects will become "very significant negatives" for AI, and describes the current market as "manic"—driven purely by Fed Covid cash into AI stocks as people chase shiny objects rather than value. Monetary-Metals.com/julia Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira852Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome 01:00 Markets this week - Tech hit hard, gold erased gains, Bitcoin crushed4:02 John Dizard interview - Rationing synthetic lubricants before midterms5:30 Trump admin blind to crisis, needs WWII-level mobilization7:58 Suppliers already rationing, July/August shortages pronounced10:41 Double-digit inflation locked in, Fed powerless against external shocks11:58 Taking profits on AI - Sold AMD, ARM, back into Chevron13:19 Fed doesn't understand financial markets or mortgage servicing14:40 Bond spreads tight - Scarcity of quality assets17:28 Bill Pulte as Acting Director of National Intelligence - Political payback20:20 Trump shoots from hip, alienating Republicans, can't get anything done21:02 Kevin Warsh quote - 3% inflation destroys economies22:10 Gold erased 2026 gains - Higher rates, Bitcoin collapse23:48 Bitcoin toast - BlackRock selling, crypto bubble burst25:19 Manic market not driven by value, chasing AI26:00 Communities blocking data center projects - Politics killing AI27:07 Bubble driven by Fed Covid cash flood28:43 Parting thoughts - Fishing in Maine, Dizard interview next week
Transcribe →#375 Howell: Liquidity Slowing, Speculation Phase Ending, Why A Fed Hike Might Be Coming
Jun 200:43:44Tap to summarizeMichael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for an in-studio episode. In this episode, Howell reveals money is flowing out of financial markets into the real economy, marking the end of Wall Street's era and the beginning of Main Street's turn. He warns the market is in a "speculation phase" with low quality returns built on narrow foundations—only AI and semiconductors are racing while most securities stagnate—and the next phase will be "turbulence" as liquidity slows and the bearish flattening yield curve continues. Howell details how the system has monetized with the Treasury refinancing $600 billion per week in short-term bills, notes there is "unquestionably way too much debt," and makes the contrarian call that the Fed will raise rates in the next 12 months because the economy is too strong at 7-8% nominal GDP growth. He positions commodities and energy as the place to be, argues gold is a hedge against monetary inflation (not CPI), and suggests the gold-oil ratio could imply oil prices of $200 per barrel.Thank you to our sponsor Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercapSubstack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/30303929020:00 Opening - Money leaving financial markets for real economy1:29 Speculation phase - Low quality returns on narrow foundations6:49 Liquidity rolling over - Rate of change critical7:38 Money flowing from financial sector to real economy13:23 Debt refinancing phenomenon - 4 out of 5 transactions15:25 Way too much debt, only monetization is the way out16:40 China monetizing like Japan did with Abenomics19:32 US monetization already happening - $600B weekly debt refinancing24:28 MOVE index suppressed through treasury buybacks30:12 Kevin Warsh expectations for new Fed chair32:01 Inflation no longer transitory - Now illusionary35:48 Monetary inflation hurdle 7-8% per year37:26 What to own - Diversified into commodities, energy, gold40:10 Gold-oil ratio could mean oil $200 per barrel40:50 Contrarian call - Fed must raise rates in 12 months43:15 Find him at Capital Wars Substack
Transcribe →#374 Chris Whalen: Fed Policy Losing Efficacy, Rate Hike Coming Anyway, Private Credit Defaults at 6%
May 3000:36:36Tap to summarizeIn this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen reveals bank incomes are up but the real story is the trading side of the house driving earnings, not lending, as deposits grow faster than assets forcing banks into trading operations. He warns private credit default rates have hit a record 6%, nearly 10 times worse than bank default rates, signaling the end of the credit cycle as non-banks now lead lending. Whalen predicts double-digit inflation remains likely, expects QE5 to come despite Warsh's denials since the Fed balance sheet must grow proportionally with federal debt, and argues Fed policy is losing efficacy against external war-driven inflation that raising rates won't fix. He discusses massive housing consolidation and M&A deals coming as mortgage lenders face crushing higher rates, details how private equity is rolling up every service provider imaginable (plumbers, electricians, dentists, oncologists) and "screwing them up terribly," warns TIPS aren't reflecting true inflation, and predicts major housing lender mergers between now and year end. Whalen maintains his thesis that the Fed doesn't control long-term rates and that shrinking the balance sheet would be more effective than raising the Fed funds rate, argues the AI momentum trade is crowded and silly, and expects no action from the Fed in June but potential rate hike language removal from statements. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira847Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Introduction - Bank Income Up, Stocks Sideways01:00 Banks recap5:06 Private credit default rate record 6% - 10x worse than banks6:14 Who's most exposed to private credit losses?7:36 Reversal in low rate environment impact9:39 Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet strategy10:01 Double-digit inflation still likely?10:40 What were worst impacts of QE?11:00 Housing was the headline impact of QE12:43 Fed housing subsidy went outside their mandate12:51 Fed is progressive institution out of control13:49 We may be closer to QE5 than Bessent knows15:05 Fed balance sheet must grow with federal debt16:04 New leadership - what about Fed funds rate?16:18 Potential for cut or hike?18:06 Base case still stagflation?20:12 Private equity excess cash looking for yield22:10 Politics of housing affordability daunting23:35 Viewer questions - TIPS24:26 Municipal bond default risk 26:24 Why higher inflation won't drive down gold28:42 AI craziness - momentum market29:31 Trump wanted cuts but prospects disappearing29:54 June FOMC - don't expect action31:20 Fed balance sheet more important than Fed funds rate33:11 Next week - bank report Monday
Transcribe →#373 Chris Whalen: Why We Could See Double-Digit Inflation, Rationing, & Fed Hikes
May 2300:33:51Tap to summarizeIn this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down how the Iran war situation is sinking GOP hopes for the midterms as he predicts double-digit inflation by year end driven by critical petroleum product shortages, with John Dizard warning rationing is coming to the United States for intensive products like gas turbine lubricants. Whalen explains the Fed will be forced to hike rates as early as July according to Diane Swonk, representing a dramatic shift from rate cut expectations just weeks ago, though raising rates won't help with external war-driven inflation and politics will eventually force cuts if the economy slows. He reveals real gas prices are actually low when adjusted for 15 years of dollar purchasing power loss, discusses how the politics of affordability will reshape the landscape with Republicans at risk of losing both House and Senate, and maintains his long gold position as inflation hedge while viewing silver as a commercial play on technology demand. Whalen details Kevin Warsh's strategy to shrink the Fed balance sheet while credibly cutting short-term rates by forcing markets to absorb more duration, explains why the 1970s stock market stagnation differs from today due to demographics and higher stock ownership, predicts Social Security will eventually be means-tested as the math has reversed from 10 workers per retiree to the opposite, and argues passive investment mechanisms killed crypto with Wall Street ETFs now controlling price action. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira847Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Introduction - Inflation sinks GOP, private credit drama0:37 Fed will have to get in front of inflation now1:35 Iran situation sinking GOP hopes for midterms2:21 Rationing coming to the United States - John Dizard prediction3:21 Could hit double-digit inflation by year end3:51 Walk through the double-digit inflation thesis5:58 Real gas prices are actually low when adjusted for inflation7:00 Knock-on effects of double-digit inflation7:23 Politics of affordability will reshape US landscape8:01 Republicans in danger of losing House and Senate8:45 Diane Swonk thinks rate hike as early as July9:01 How big of a shift is this in Fed's thinking?9:53 Last time asset holders benefited - Will it be different this time?11:49 Gold and silver behaving differently lately13:09 Long gold as inflation hedge, silver as commercial play14:01 Kevin Warsh could shrink Fed balance sheet while cutting short rates17:39 Viewer mail - Inflation scenario with liquidity trap20:11 Viewer question on Annaly dividend22:11 1970s inflation vs today - Why stocks didn't make new highs then24:05 Blue state housing policies debate27:06 Social Security funding crisis - Means testing coming?28:36 Third rail of American politics28:49 Stablecoin reserve status question31:02 Chris's parting thoughts - Significant change in narratives33:03 Closing thoughts
Transcribe →#372 Ted Oakley: Why Energy Could Surge Like Gold Did Last Year, and Most Investors Don't Own Enough
May 2100:28:20Tap to summarizeIn this episode, Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors with 49 years in the business, returns to discuss the stark disconnect between Wall Street momentum and the collapsing consumer, revealing credit card and auto loan delinquencies are now at Great Financial Crisis levels while the economy has shifted from K-shaped to "i-shaped" with only a tiny dot at the top. He explains his letter "The Gambler" addresses how younger investors have abandoned real investing for a betting culture of sports gambling, one-day options, and Bitcoin, while most advisors no longer know when to "hold 'em or fold 'em." Ted maintains 50% cash in short-term treasuries, predicts inflation will hit 4.25% in May rising to 4.75% by fall with financial repression as the only way out of the debt trap, and reveals energy is his largest position up 35% year-to-date despite being only 3% of the S&P (it was 33% in 1980). He expects energy to rip like gold and silver did last year since nobody owns it yet, outlines his "well to the end" strategy covering producers to pipelines to rigs, confirms we're in early innings of a commodity super cycle, and warns speculation will continue pushing until a recession breaks the momentum. Ted draws parallels to 1999 when shorts got killed for nine more months, sees no recession on the horizon yet to break the fever, and cautions that baby boomers age 65+ hold more stock than ever in history making them the worst positioned he's ever seen for the eventual wealth transfer.Links:Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisorsX: https://x.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsBook: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Ted Oakley returns, founder of Oxbow Advisors0:56 Two different things - Wall Street vs. the economy1:42 Consumer keeps falling apart - Credit card delinquencies at GFC levels2:24 K-shaped economy becoming more like an "i-shaped" economy3:32 "The Gambler" letter - Younger investors just betting, not investing4:02 Betting culture - Sports betting, one-day options, Bitcoin5:21 Know when to hold them, know when to fold them5:39 Cash position at 50% in short-term treasuries6:41 Long bond move - Topped 5.19% on 30-year6:57 Late 70s/early 80s parallel - Inflation went from 5% to 18%7:49 Are bond vigilantes coming back?7:54 Bond market eventually rules everything8:21 Expectation of more inflation ahead8:27 May CPI could come in at 4.25% or higher, 4.5-4.75% by fall9:30 Financial repression is the only way out10:36 Can't see how Fed cuts rates at all11:09 Asset holders benefited from inflation but that changes in linear inflation12:18 Energy is largest position - Up 35% vs. S&P's 20%13:11 Big tech stocks barely up from November/December levels13:41 Semiconductors probably at high for next 5 years14:34 Energy dramatically underweight in portfolios - Only 3% of S&P15:03 1980: Energy was 33% of S&P15:54 Energy names - Well to the end strategy16:53 Producers, midstream, rigs - The whole package17:34 Where we are in commodity cycle - Early innings18:38 Commodity positions - Rio Tinto, Vale, uranium, antimony, critical minerals19:18 Oil price and energy thesis20:16 AutoZone warning on motor oil shortages coming20:54 Precious metals positioning today21:54 Gold could go to $4,000 or $3,800 - Shake out momentum players23:12 1999 parallel - Momentum could continue 9 more months24:19 No recession on horizon - Need that to break momentum25:14 Speculative nature pushes until recession breaks it25:51 Second Generation Wealth - Massive wealth transfer concerns26:31 Baby boomers 65+ have most stock in assets ever in history27:22 Closing thoughts
Transcribe →#371 George Noble: Fed's Hands Tied, Bond Vigilantes Waking Up, Buy the Dip Dead, Margin of Safety Thin
May 1900:46:01Tap to summarizeGeorge Noble, CIO of Noble Capital Advisors, returns to review his February predictions on bonds, energy, and the AI trade, warning that the margin of safety is particularly small right now as there's no room for error with stocks highly valued, companies over-earning, and policymakers unable to ease on either fiscal or monetary fronts. He explains bond vigilantes are awakening as yields hit 30-year highs in Japan and 20-year highs in Europe, predicts the Fed cutting rates against surging inflation will backfire spectacularly, and reveals forward oil contracts are finally rising as the market believes this situation won't pass quickly. Noble declares we're in the "golden age for stock picking" after active managers got killed by ETFs for years, warns the consumer is already in recession with stocks like Home Depot, Lowe's, McDonald's, and Lululemon making multi-year relative lows, and explains his long resources/short consumer-tech spread has generated 10% returns in six weeks. He argues many stocks are in a bubble not because of high PEs but because of unsustainable margins (using shipping stocks as an analogy), reveals consumer ETFs are actually 40% Mag 7, confirms his "death of financialization" thesis as bond markets discipline politicians, and explains why Kevin Warsh is stuck between a rock and hard place with limited policy tools as the buy-the-dip mentality dies.Links: George Noble's Best Income Ideas Online Summit: https://noble-capevents.com/X: https://x.com/gnoble79Substack: https://substack.com/@georgenobleTimestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Big picture macro update since February0:40 Reviewing previous predictions - Energy, bonds, AI trade3:32 Margin of safety particularly small right now5:30 Forward curve moving up - Market believing oil situation won't pass quickly6:02 Rising oil prices and bond yields - Not positive for risk assets8:40 Tech leadership unsustainable - Tremendous blow off top11:00 Buying semis on 8x book historically not a good idea12:26 Equal weight S&P underperforming - Broader market not doing well14:21 Long resources, short consumer and tech - 10% return spread17:03 Bond market move confirming death of financialization thesis19:52 Fed cutting rates against surging inflation and exploding deficits will backfire21:15 Bond market vigilantes being awakened23:38 Japan as canary in coal mine on debt problem25:33 Gold miners outstanding right now - Out of favor27:04 Regime shift happening - 60-40 model is dead29:36 Fed is not in control - They follow the market32:16 This is the golden age for stock picking34:21 AI trade - Biggest misallocation of capital in history of the world36:44 Many stocks in a bubble - Margins are the problem, not PEs38:37 Shipping stocks example - Bubble in earnings, not valuation40:20 Consumer is in recession42:06 Inflation permeating - Gold to energy to food43:28 Rates won't matter until they matter - Temperature analogy45:51 Kevin Warsh stuck between rock and hard place46:38 Margin of safety explained - Seth Klarman's wisdom50:11 Death of buy the dip mentality51:27 ETFs are not the answer - Do you know what's in your ETF?52:53 Golden age of stock picking - Active managers killing it now54:41 Shorting is a bad business - Just avoid garbage stocks56:50 Best Income Ideas Conference - May 20th59:05 Closing thoughts
Transcribe →#370 Chris Whalen: Why Double-Digit Inflation Is Possible, 30-Year Tops 5%
May 1600:32:57Tap to summarizeIn this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down Kevin Warsh's confirmation as Fed chair and explains why this represents a dramatic shift from the progressive, statist Fed created by Mariner Eccles in the 1930s to a supply-side approach. Whalen reveals that Fed chairs have enormous unilateral power and predicts Warsh will reduce the balance sheet and reserves while trading off lower short-term rates, ending the regime where "every time the market hiccupped, the Fed ran in and dumped more reserves." He warns the 30-year bond topping 5% is just the beginning, with the long end potentially hitting 6% as Iran war impacts drive inflation to double digits by year end, possibly requiring rationing of key petroleum byproducts before the midterms. Whalen explains why silver is surging (Chinese tech demand, solid-state batteries, reduced mining) while discussing non-bank mortgage drama with United Wholesale Mortgage potentially becoming "the next Countrywide." He argues stocks will continue rising as inflation hedges, dismisses apocalyptic debt scenarios since the world needs dollars for trade, and predicts we'll need to get used to mortgages in the 6-7% range instead of 4-5% under higher-for-longer.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira845Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Introduction - Silver soars, Warsh confirmed, 30-year bond tops 5%0:32 Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed chair - What changes now?6:14 Market7:29 Banks bought back more stock than they made money9:00 30-year bond hits 5% for first time since 20089:56 Planning rationing strategies for key materials from petroleum11:04 Could get to double-digit inflation by end of year12:28 Long end of curve could get closer to 6% than 5%12:56 Trump meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing - How big of a deal?14:25 Dow hitting 50,000 - Blow off top or still runway?19:02 Silver surging - What's going on?21:03 The next Countrywide?24:29 End game with higher for longer under Warsh27:09 Viewer mail - National debt and market impact29:19 Will Warsh treat Iran war inflation as self-correcting?30:33 What Chris is watching next week/closing thoughts
Transcribe →#369 Melody Wright: 35-50% Housing Correction Needed, First Wave 10-12% Coming
May 1400:38:34Tap to summarizeMelody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for an in-person episode to discuss the frozen spring selling season and reveals disturbing signs of distress bubbling beneath the surface, including mortgage delinquencies rising at the exact time of year they should be falling. She exposes the "rage delisting" phenomenon where stubborn sellers refuse price cuts despite a massive inventory buildup, explains why the housing shortage narrative is a myth perpetuated by builders seeking a bailout, and warns that prime mortgages are now showing weakness for the first time. Melody argues that a 35-50% price correction is needed for median household income to afford median home prices, with the first wave of 10-12% likely over the next couple years. She reveals a massive shadow inventory wave from boomers that could add 20% more homes each year for the next decade, discusses how investors are fire selling (one investor dumping 300 rentals in a single market), and predicts the back half of 2026 could be "really ugly" as forbearance programs expire. Her advice: sellers should cut prices quickly to avoid cutting further, while buyers should stay patient because "the supply is coming."Links:YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melodyX: https://x.com/m3_melodySubstack: https://m3melody.substack.com/Timestamps0:00 Introduction - Melody Wright returns, spring selling season1:59 Housing market assessment - "Take three of another year frozen"5:28 Distress bubbling under the surface8:15 Why the shortage narrative is so pervasive11:46 Tracking 86 markets now 15:05 Most worrisome areas - The delusional northeast16:11 Boomer stubbornness and shadow inventory wave16:38 How big is the shadow inventory? 20% increase for next 10 years18:22 How far do prices need to correct? 35% to 50%20:42 Warning signals24:25 Most important thing overlooked27:36 Base case - 35% to 50% correction over significant time28:46 Spring season warning 29:54 Back half of year could be really ugly30:17 Shortage of affordable homes because they're mispriced30:58 Advice for sellers - Get real appraisal, cut quickly32:36 Advice for buyers - Stay stubborn, wait for math to work33:04 How does this feel different from 2008?36:45 Who's buying now if institutionals are fire selling?37:57 Parting words - Patience for buyers, supply is coming
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