Podcast
The Julia La Roche Show
Hosted by Julia La Roche · EN
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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#368 Michael Pento: The i-Shaped Economy Destroying the Middle Class, $2 Trillion Private Credit Bubble, and Why Credit Markets Will Fracture First
May 1200:44:30Tap to summarizeMichael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies (PPS), returns to The Julia La Roche for episode 368 to warn that the three asset bubbles in stocks, credit, and real estate continue growing to unprecedented levels, with total market cap now at 230% of GDP versus a 90% average. He reveals that Powell has quietly printed $170 billion since December in an undeclared QE program, calls Powell's tenure "horrific," and celebrates his departure. Pento explains he's "nervously long" the market using his five-sector inflation-deflation model, currently positioned for stagflation with commodities, precious metals, and energy. He warns that credit markets will fracture first, with private credit now at $2 trillion (bigger than the $1.3 trillion subprime market in 2008), and predicts June redemptions could trigger a death spiral. Pento believes we need a 50% market correction to return to normalcy, warns we could see 15% interest rates like the 1980s but with a far worse debt backdrop, and argues the bottom 80% of Americans are already living in depression-like conditions while crony capitalism enriches the top 20%. He sees two paths forward: voluntary asset price reconciliation or forced hyperinflation leading to currency reset.Links: https://pentoport.com/ https://twitter.com/michaelpento0:00 Introduction - Michael Pento returns after 6 months0:59 Big picture macro view - Bubbles grow bigger2:19 Powell's "horrific tenure" - $4.5 trillion printed3:32 QE program continues - $170 billion since December4:39 Kevin Warsh-led Fed - What changes are coming?5:52 Warsh will punish Wall Street, boost Main Street7:06 Stock bubble metrics - 230% of GDP (average is 90%)8:24 Crony capitalism vs. free market economics9:10 Why capitalism gets a bad name10:01 Home price to income ratio at all-time highs11:01 Disconnect between stock market highs and consumer sentiment lows11:35 Only top 20% doing well - The "i-shaped economy"12:33 AI spending reminds Michael of 1999 tech bubble13:33 Are you confident Kevin Warsh can get us back to normalcy?14:41 What would normal market valuations look like?15:06 Would need 50% correction to return to normal17:05 Wouldn't printing just set us up for more problems?18:57 Either scenario leads to higher rates19:37 Implications of double-digit rates on everything20:38 Are you still nervously long the market?21:19 Michael's not a perma bear - History of market crashes23:02 How dangerous can this bubble be when it bursts?24:03 Michael's 5-sector inflation-deflation model25:14 Precious metals trade - Why only 6% position26:41 Energy thesis - After Iran war27:30 Explaining the 5 sectors - Which is most worrisome?28:25 Stagflation is the base case going forward29:01 Post-recession: $6 trillion deficits, $12 trillion Fed balance sheet29:55 Could we see 15% interest rates like 1980?31:17 What's the end game here?33:21 Are we past the point of no return?34:58 Which bubble bursts first - The epicenter?35:44 Watch credit markets first - Private credit warning36:46 June redemptions could trigger death spiral37:47 Is private credit too big to fail now?38:21 Risk not getting attention - Pressure on middle class40:00 Buy now pay later defaults surging40:29 Bottom 80% living in depression conditions41:18 Preventing tremors creates epic shocks42:48 Has anyone talked about $170 billion of QE since December?43:24 What makes Michael hopeful for the future44:01 Closing thoughts
Transcribe →#367 Chris Whalen: "No Rate Cuts For a While" — Warsh's Fed Earthquake, Silver Shortage, and Why Inflation Is Here to Stay
May 900:32:54Tap to summarizeWarsh's arrival at the Fed actually means in practice — significant personnel changes, new models, and what Chris calls nothing short of an "earthquake at the central bank." Chris explains why there will be no rate cuts for a while, why the Fed balance sheet is growing again despite Warsh wanting to shrink it, and the one-to-one relationship between the balance sheet and public debt that most people aren't talking about. Plus: silver is in physical shortage and can't be delivered in parts of Asia, private credit is getting quiet as the bad headlines pile up, AMD is Chris's AI play of choice, and why the Iran war means "traumatic shortages by June" even if a deal were struck tomorrow. Chris also answers viewer questions on Warsh shrinking the balance sheet, gold under a tightening regime, the PennyMac LIBOR lawsuit, and Annaly Capital earnings. And Julia closes on her first house. Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira842Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Welcome & intro 0:49 Fed balance sheet growing again even though Warsh wants to shrink it 1:08 The one-to-one relationship between the Fed balance sheet and public debt 3:28 Will we continue to see a more inflationary environment? 3:37 Silver on a tear — physical shortage, can't deliver the metal 4:41 Still money pouring into private credit 8:32 Too many dollars chasing too few returns — what this means for markets 11:10 Are we setting up for a longer term risk? 12:13 GameStop CEO's bid for eBay — what does Chris make of it? 14:08 Changing the models, retiring staff — "an earthquake at the central bank" 16:32 "No rate cuts for a while" — Warsh has to establish rapport first 19:25 Iran hostilities dragging on — how much longer is this a major risk?the year 23:02 Adding to gold positions — "the selloff was a gift" 25:36 Mortgage sector — rates up, companies waiting for cuts that aren't coming 26:16 Banks not attractive right now — what would make them more attractive? 27:30 Viewer Q — How could Warsh shrink the Fed balance sheet? 27:56 Scarce reserve regime — T-bills, discount window, can he get it done?29:02 Viewer Q — Is gold a good investment under a tightening regime? 29:52 Viewer Q — PennyMac lawsuit over LIBOR/SOFR transition 31:31 Viewer Q — Annaly Capital earnings — "good earnings, beat expectations" 32:13 What is Chris watching next week? 33:17 GoldCo sponsor — goldco.com/thewrap — 855-573-0817
Transcribe →#366 Michael Green: Why A 1987-Style Crash Is Now Almost Inevitable — Here's the Math
May 700:38:47Tap to summarizeMichael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 366 to break down what he calls the most important and overlooked structural shift in financial history — the rise of passive investing. Green argues that the market isn't broken in the way most people think: it's not fraud or irrational exuberance, it's the mechanical consequence of a regulatory change in 2006 that turned 401k contributions into an automatic, valuation-blind buying machine. With passive now at 55% of the market — and rising 4% per year — Green shares new research showing that somewhere between 65% and 80%, a 1987-style crash stops being a possibility and becomes nearly inevitable. He also connects the dots between our retirement system, the housing crisis, and why both boomers and millennials are scared — just for completely different reasons.Links:Follow Mike on X: https://twitter.com/profplum99Read Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/Timestamps00:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green1:04 - What "broken markets" actually means today 2:40 - The Costanza market and how Mike's research began 6:21 - Passive went from 2% to 55% of the market since 1992 7:05 - Why passive investing is just momentum with no valuation filter 9:45 - The 2006 Pension Protection Act — the legislation nobody talks about 10:13 - Why Vanguard and Bogle aren't the ones to blame 10:19 - The book: The Greatest Story Ever Sold 10:39 - The academic paper that forced Mike to rewrite the book 13:59 - Type A vs Type B savers — and the snow cone moment 14:35 - Prices don't move because of information. They move because of flows. 15:08 - The threshold: 65–80% passive and the market becomes unstable16:07 - Why the coming crash could be worse than 1987 19:37 - The XIV collapse — and what it taught Mike about predicting crashes 22:00 - Is there a disconnect between markets and the economy right now? 22:19 - Nvidia's margins, vendor financing, and the Cisco parallel 24:10 - The S&P could be worth less than 2,000 on a pure DCF basis 25:29 - Pushing back on the "we've never been better off" narrative 27:21 - The valley of death and the precarity line 28:36 - Why demographics are at the center of everything 29:29 - Why boomers are terrified too — and why that matters for younger people 31:14 - The housing trap: boomers won't sell, millennials can't buy 34:21 - What does all this say about the social fabric? 35:18 - "Tax wealth, not work" — the tax code we had in the 1950s 36:41 - Why a wealth tax is actually the wrong solution 38:11 - Wrap up
Transcribe →#365 Rick Rule: 'All The News I See Is Bad' — Oil Shortage, Gold & Why The Worst Is Still Ahead
May 500:47:30Tap to summarizeVeteran natural resource investor Rick Rule, CEO of Rule Investment Media and co-founder of Battle Bank, returns to break down a rapidly deteriorating macro picture, warning that oil markets are currently pricing in anticipation of a shortage — not the shortage itself — and that the next seven to ten days could be a watershed moment if the Gulf conflict doesn't de-escalate. He explains why gold may moderate near term despite the chaos (strong dollar, rising yields), but remains convicted it will preserve purchasing power over the next decade as the US dollar loses 75% of its purchasing power. Rick also flags uranium and nuclear power as the clearest long-term beneficiary of the energy crisis, updates his silver miner trade (up ~21%), and sounds the alarm on a potential credit crunch in private and junk bond markets that few are talking about.00:00 — Introduction00:43 — Oil crisis: why prices are "anticipatory" & what happens in 7–10 days06:07 — The truth about gold & fear (it's not what you think)08:03 — Long bonds breach 5% — what that means for you11:31 — How to protect yourself: liquidity, gold & balance sheets15:36 — Gold at $4,800 & the silver miner trade update19:35 — Oil above $100 and what it signals about the global economy22:47 — Why the next 7–10 days are critical27:28 — The biggest unsung winner of this war: uranium & nuclear31:07 — How to actually invest in uranium (names & tickers)32:53 — Near-term bleak, long-term better — Rick's full outlook34:05 — Why is the stock market hitting new highs during a war?37:06 — New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh: hawk or not?38:54 — Where we are in the commodity super cycle41:44 — Battle Bank update + Symposium + free portfolio ranking offer
Transcribe →#364: Chris Whalen: Powell Stays to "Block Trump" — Warsh Faces Major Obstacles and "The Fed Caused High Home Prices"
May 200:37:34Tap to summarizeIn this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down what he calls one of the most significant weeks in Fed history — Powell's final press conference as chairman, his decision to stay on as a Fed governor to block Trump from a second appointment, and what it means for Kevin Warsh walking into a hostile committee with the most dissenting votes since 1992. Chris explains why the Fed has been "the key engine of progressive socialism in Washington" since 1935, what a Warsh-led Fed actually looks like in practice, and why the Trump White House missed a political layup by not hanging "the burning tire of home price affordability" around Powell's neck. Plus: why sulfur — not oil — is the one word that sums up the biggest threat to the global economy right now, what China's sulfuric acid export ban means for copper, silver, and inflation, and why distressed real estate is "the next trade."Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira840Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Welcome & intro — what a week it was 2:05 Powell staying as fed governor 5:08 Warsh — "a hawk on inflation but a supply sider" 7:15 Powell's warning about regional Fed presidents8:10 What can we expect from a Warsh-led Fed?11:30 "The burning tire they should have hung around Powell's neck" 12:25 "What would be the message?" — Chris on political messaging and affordability14:44 What change is Chris most looking forward to at the Fed?16:41 Inflation is accelerating17:28 Sulfur — the one word that sums up the global economic threat20:17 What is Chris doing with his precious metals right now?21:17 US equity markets hitting record highs — what does Chris make of it? 24:30 Distressed real estate is "the next trade" 29:40 One year anniversary of Inflated — reflection and what's come to fruition 34:32 What is Chris watching next week?
Transcribe →#363 Danielle DiMartino Booth: Powell's 'Patriotic' Stand Protecting Fed Independence, Fed Should Cut Despite Oil Prices, and Flirting With Liquidity Crisis as Non-Banks Too Big to Fail
Apr 3000:38:57Tap to summarizeIn this episode, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research and former Fed insider, explains why she's "less fed up" despite disagreeing with Fed policy - praising Jerome Powell's decision to stay on as governor to protect Fed independence, drawing parallels to Marriner Eccles' 1948 stand against President Truman. Danielle calls Powell's move "patriotic" while warning we're "flirting with a liquidity crisis" as non-banks have become "too big to fail." She discusses the challenges Kevin Warsh will face as incoming chair, argues the Fed has failed its employment mandate, and explains how the economy cannot withstand persistently high oil prices and interest rates simultaneously.Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction - Fed day with Danielle DiMartino Booth0:32 Powell's last time at the podium - Takeaways1:48 The Eccles parallel - Fed independence fight in 19482:39 Why Danielle is "less fed up" today2:57 The Powell move - Staying on as governor4:20 Risk of being perceived as shadow Fed chair?5:39 Triple hawkish dissent 6:16 Unprecedented dissent levels - Early resistance signs?7:57 Powell's legacy and how it changed today9:22 The Eccles legacy - Established as governor, not chair10:27 Powell's move was "patriotic" - Protecting Fed independence11:27 What is your read on Kevin Warsh?12:48 Liquidity crises take precedence - The Mike Tyson test13:40 0% chance of rate cut - Should they have cut?14:47 Fed has failed its employment mandate16:48 Oil prices and disinflationary demand destruction17:17 Bankruptcies accelerating, layoffs increasing18:01 Home prices falling - Thinking about inflation wrong19:16 The valley of death at $100k income level19:32 Higher for longer means more pain20:34 How does building consensus at the Fed work?22:04 Flirting with a liquidity crisis - How big is the risk?22:38 Pummeling the housing market23:26 More sellers than buyers - Biggest disconnect ever24:09 Investment boom or panic stockpiling ahead of tariffs?25:27 Economy can't withstand high oil and high rates28:07 Base case for rest of 2026 - Fed cuts30:43 If you could advise Kevin Warsh, what would you say?32:17 Bloomberg chat - hot takes with institutional investors33:34 What's keeping you up at night and making you hopeful?35:37 Non-banks now too big to fail37:06 Systemic risk from non-banking system37:25 Mother's Day tribute - Legacy and three graduating kids38:03 Closing thoughts
Transcribe →#362 Chris Whalen: DOJ Drops Powell Probe — "Trump Could Be Attacking Warsh By Thanksgiving," Stagflation Is the Base Case, The Real Private Credit Risk, & Why Distressed Real Estate Is The Next Trade
Apr 2500:44:31Tap to summarizeIn this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down what's really driving the rally, why the inflationary impact of the Iran war will stay with us through the end of 2026, and why the Fed's hands are essentially tied regardless of who sits in the chair. Chris also digs into Q1 bank earnings — what the numbers are really saying about credit risk, why most banks are still refusing to disclose their private credit exposures, and why he believes the debt in these deals will ultimately be converted to equity — with retail and institutional investors left holding the bag. Plus: commercial real estate as a long-term drag on cities, the New York pied-à-terre tax as political theater, gold and silver ETF picks, and why Chris says the U.S. equity market would be "comfortable with the devil by lunchtime." Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrap or call 855-573-0817Links: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira837Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen "Homework" from Chris :) https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-reserve-barbellUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Intro 0:27 Breaking news — DOJ drops Powell probe, Chris reacts 2:03 Chris's assessment of Powell — "Mediocre" 2:18 "The burning tire of home price affordability" 3:58 "He could be attacking Warsh by Thanksgiving"5:49 Does Warsh come in as a hawk? 9:45 Main episode begins 10:15 Middle East/Iran update 12:56 Stagflation is the base case 15:00 Truflation viewer question 16:50 Spirit Airlines bailout 20:32 Kevin Warsh hearing circus 23:29 VantageScore — "election year press release" 27:15 D. Ricardo's letter on private credit 29:00 NVIDIA — "I would not be a buyer" 30:54 The generational experience gap 31:49 "You think we may get a crisis this year?" 32:45 Share repurchases — "funded with debt" 34:06 Gold homework — Reserve Barbell 37:07 The passive bid 38:00 Viewer Q — community banks 40:11 Viewer Q — Did Chris lock in his mortgage? 42:11 FOMC next week 42:30 "Distressed real estate is the next trade"
Transcribe →#361 Dr. Mark Thornton: We're on the Highway to Hyperinflation
Apr 2100:59:22Tap to summarizeDr. Mark Thornton, Senior Fellow at the Mises Institute and Austrian economist, returns to the show to deliver a sweeping macro warning rooted in Austrian business cycle theory. After 16 years of Fed-fueled boom, he argues we are somewhere in the middle of a cycle that ends in crisis. He unpacks the Cantillon Effect and its direct link to the K-shaped economy, explains why gold is both a canary in the coal mine and a personal financial fire extinguisher, and makes the case that the petrodollar is unraveling in real time — pushing us further down what he calls "the highway to hyperinflation." Despite the dark outlook, Dr. Thornton closes with genuine optimism: Austrian economics is experiencing a rebirth, and the bottom-up solutions it champions are resonating louder than ever.LinksX: https://x.com/DrMarkThorntonFree Hayek book: https://store.mises.org/Hayek-for-the-21st-Century-P11367.aspxMises Institute: https://mises.org/profile/mark-thorntonTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Dr. Mark Thornton 1:24 – 16 years of boom: What the Fed has really been doing 3:45 – The K-shaped economy and who's actually winning 6:32 – Where are we in the cycle? Signposts that worry him most 8:17 – Private equity, private credit & "sequestered capital" 10:20 – How Dr. Thornton discovered Austrian economics 7:57 – The Cantillon Effect explained: Who gets new money first 20:48 – The Skyscraper Index: Record buildings predict crises 23:25 – Bubbles, billionaires & trillion-dollar fortunes 25:23 – Federal Reserve outlook: Rate cuts off the table? 27:15 – Kevin Warsh, the Fed's "real mandate" & what they won't admit29:40 – Gold, silver & oil: What precious metals are telling us now 31:30 – Gold as a "canary in the coal mine" AND a "fire extinguisher" 37:02 – Are gold and silver going much higher from here? 38:24 – Why record stock markets are actually dangerous 40:45 – The highway to hyperinflation: Has anything changed? 44:46 – The end of the petrodollar and US reserve currency status 47:16 – BRICS, crypto & the unraveling of dollar dominance 49:39 – The Middle East war's hidden impact on food, fertilizer & global supply chains 53:46 – Where to find the Mises Institute & parting thoughts
Transcribe →#360 Chris Whalen: Even If We Cut a Deal Today Inflation Is Not Behind Us
Apr 1800:37:11Tap to summarizeIn this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down what's really driving the rally, why the inflationary impact of the Iran war will stay with us through the end of 2026, and why the Fed's hands are essentially tied regardless of who sits in the chair. Chris also digs into Q1 bank earnings — what the numbers are really saying about credit risk, why most banks are still refusing to disclose their private credit exposures, and why he believes the debt in these deals will ultimately be converted to equity — with retail and institutional investors left holding the bag. Plus: commercial real estate as a long-term drag on cities, the New York pied-à-terre tax as political theater, gold and silver ETF picks, and why Chris says the U.S. equity market would be "comfortable with the devil by lunchtime." Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira826Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:00:00 - Introduction & kicking off with this week's Wrap 00:52 Markets surging on Iran/Strait of Hormuz news — Chris's initial take02:30 — Why inflation won't go away even if a deal is struck today 04:41 — FOMC outlook — no cuts expected, Fed on hold 05:21 — Trump's threat to fire Powell — why it won't happen and why the approach is backfiring 10:40 — War Powers Act and the 60-day congressional clock — what happens next 11:49 — Q1 Bank Earnings overview — revenue up, credit costs falling, but private credit disclosure disappoints 14:29 — Commercial real estate 16:30 — Housing market 17:24 — New York pied-à-terre tax — politics or policy? 20:16 — CRE as a long-term drag on city tax revenues, not an acute crisis 21:44 — Private credit disclosure — what questions remain after earnings 22:49 — "Private credit will become equity" — Chris explains the mechanics 24:49 — Red Lobster as the perfect example of debt-to-equity conversion 25:08 — Who are the losers? Retail, institutional investors — and some regional banks 25:29 — John Ray III's warning: regional banks are holding the bag on private credit 26:25 — Viewer Q: Trapped Fed — rate cuts, QE, or yield curve control in a stagflation scenario? 28:06 — Viewer Q: Which gold ETFs is Chris buying right now? 29:15 — Viewer Q: Why does the market keep taking Trump's word on Iran? 31:05 — Stocks vs. bonds in inflationary periods — why income assets are the play 32:22 — Is Chris more optimistic than usual? His take on doom and gloom narratives 33:27 — Closing thoughts, where to find Chris, and GoldCo sponsor message
Transcribe →#360 Michael Howell: We've Hit An Inflection Point — We're In The Speculation Phase And Turbulence Is Coming For Markets
Apr 1701:02:51Tap to summarizeMichael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show, returns seven months after his last appearance to update his Global Liquidity call. The peak he flagged for Q3 2025 has held, and the cycle now points to a trough in 2027. Despite the Iran conflict and market volatility, Michael argues the world economy is actually holding up better than the media suggests — but that's almost the problem, because money flowing into the real economy is draining it from financial markets. He explains why the current rally is phoney, why bond term premia falling is actually a flight to safety signal not a selloff, and why we're in the Speculation phase — where economies feel strongest right before things get difficult. He walks through his full asset allocation traffic light system, the debt liquidity nexus, why the Fed and Treasury may be secretly targeting the MOVE index to protect the basis trade and collateral system, the COVID-era debt maturity wall now coming due, and why raising interest rates in today's world may actually be stimulative — not contractionary — because the government is the biggest borrower and higher rates just transfer more income to the private sector. He closes on Treasury QE replacing Fed QE and what it means for Bitcoin.Links: Website: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/ Twitter/X https://x.com/crossbordercapSubstack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/ Book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/303039290200:00 — Introduction and welcome back Michael01:15 — Where we are in the liquidity cycle — asset allocation clock and the five to six year cycle05:15 — Julia asks about the phoney rally — Michael digs in05:35 — The AI-based World GDP model — Iran far less damaging than tariffs or COVID09:37 — All money anywhere must be somewhere — why a stronger real economy drains financial markets13:18 — The sine wave estimated 25 years ago — peak Q3 2025, trough 202715:37 — Daily granular liquidity data — the downtrend confirmed17:16 — How to stay positioned without getting whipsawed by relief rallies18:49 — What bonds are really saying — breaking down term premia vs policy rates22:42 — The Speculation phase — economies feel strongest right before it gets hard23:45 — The yield curve as liquidity barometer — why steepening consensus was wrong27:15 — The winter analogy — don't go outside in a swimsuit during winter29:40 — The asset allocation traffic lights — what to own at each phase33:51 — Julia asks what gets exposed when the tide goes out34:27 — The debt liquidity nexus — 80% of transactions are refinancing, 77% of lending is collateral based36:53 — The MOVE index — why bond volatility governs the entire collateral multiplier37:49 — Why Michael thinks the Fed and Treasury are quietly targeting the MOVE index40:30 — What happens if they stop capping it — basis trade collapses, collateral doom loop42:18 — The debt maturity wall — COVID debt turned out to end of decade, now coming back48:34 — The Fed is preoccupied with the wrong tool — the world has fundamentally changed51:00 — The Alice in Wonderland problem — raising rates today is actually stimulative53:00 — Kevin Warsh and the balance sheet — why slashing it is impractical right now54:23 — Treasury QE replacing Fed QE — short end issuance, monetization into real economy57:17 — Bitcoin and crypto — Treasury QE stabilization vs the bigger falling liquidity force01:00:02 — Final thoughts — count liquidity, get corroboration, don't rely on one club
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