Podcast
The Julia La Roche Show
Hosted by Julia La Roche · EN
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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#349 Peter Schiff: Inflation Is Going to Double Digits — The Fed Can't Stop It
Mar 1900:59:38Tap to summarizePeter Schiff, chief economist at Europacific Asset Management, makes the case that the U.S. economy is in far worse shape than the 1970s stagflation era, pointing to a $39 trillion national debt, accelerating inflation, a weakening labor market, and a new war that will drive deficits even higher. He argues the Fed is trapped — raising rates aggressively would trigger a financial collapse worse than 2008, so instead inflation will spiral into double or even triple digits, producing what he calls an "inflationary depression." Schiff sees gold, silver, and foreign stocks as the plays of the decade, warns that crypto investors are "betting on the wrong horse," and predicts a dollar and sovereign debt crisis that could begin overnight in China's time zone. He closes with cautious optimism that the coming crisis could ultimately serve as a catalyst for a return to free-market principles.Linkshttps://x.com/PeterSchiffEuropac.comhttp://SchiffGold.comTimestamps: 0:00 – Intro & inflation going to double digits teaser 0:32 – Guest intro: Peter Schiff, Europacific Asset Management 0:45 – Why today's economy is worse than the 1970s 1:13 – National debt: $39 trillion and exploding 2:03 – Recession risk, war costs & path to $50T debt 2:53 – Why the Fed can't do what Volcker did in 1980 3:37 – Labor market reality vs. Trump's "greatest economy" claims 4:11 – GDP numbers: 2025 vs. 2024 compared 4:46 – Producer price inflation spiking — leading indicator 6:01 – Stagflation or something worse? "Inflationary depression" 6:44 – Why unemployment & inflation are understated vs. the 70s 8:05 – The Fed's impossible position: rock and a hard place 8:56 – What the Fed should do — and why it won't 9:23 – Inflation into double digits, possibly triple digits 10:13 – The short-term pain we need but won't take 12:02 – Why this will be worse than 2008 12:31 – A dollar crisis and sovereign debt crisis instead 13:27 – What the Fed should actually do right now 14:18 – Stocks vs. gold: the Dow in real terms 15:15 – Gold's run to $5,500 and today's selloff explained 16:29 – Why rate cut timing misses the point — real rates matter 17:19 – Housing market: most overpriced ever, 30–40% decline needed 21:44 – Dollar crisis: what is the biggest threat to the dollar? 22:05 – How the war is affecting the dollar short-term 23:10 – Tariffs, Greenland, and losing global credibility 25:27 – Could Trump succeed on foreign policy?27:08 – How has the war changed Schiff's investing strategy? 27:21 – Energy stocks, gold miners & the opportunity right now 28:54 – Gold, silver & mining stocks — where to buy 31:10 – Parallels to the 2008 pre-crisis gold and dollar moves 32:18 – How a dollar crisis unfolds — what to watch for 34:17 – Money rotating out of the US into foreign markets 35:15 – Early innings on the rotation? Is this a new regime? 36:08 – Retail investors in crypto instead of gold — a big mistake 38:25 – Does Schiff have a gold price target? 38:36 – The Fed, the dollar, and gold since 1913 41:47 – 2028 prediction: Democrats win and make it worse 45:04 – Democrats will run against capitalism — and win 46:15 – What is Trump's economic endgame? 52:52 – Biggest risk & reason for hope 58:38 – Wrap-up & closing
Transcribe →#348 Chris Whalen: This Could Be One of the Biggest Busts in U.S. Financial History
Mar 1400:37:28Tap to summarizeIn this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns that private credit could become one of the biggest busts in U.S. financial history — not a systemic crisis, but a slow, painful unwind that will take years and leave many investors with no legal rights. He alleges that BDC accounting fraud is already systemic and the SEC isn't paying attention. On the macro, he says the Fed should still cut rates one to two times this year despite oil near $100 because war is not a monetary event — and that raising into an oil shock, as some central banks did before 2008, would be a mistake. He predicts a significant housing price correction by 2028, calls Trump's economic agenda incoherent, and warns that $100 oil by election day could cost Republicans the midterms. His highest conviction position right now: preserving capital.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 - Intro and welcome back Chris Whalen 0:31 JPMorgan pulling back from private credit 4:32 - The $4.2 trillion exposure number most investors don't know about7:05 - Where Whalen is personally invested right now 8:02 - Is private credit systemic or not? 8:43 - "Risk is never contained" — what to think when you hear that language 11:42 - Will the Trump administration end in a financial crisis? 13:50 - Rate cuts — will the Fed move despite $100 oil? 16:16 - Base case: one to two cuts, oil at $100 most of the year 17:51 - Housing off the radar in Washington? 19:22 - Midterms — is Trump cooked? 20:30 - Trump's economic endgame 23:05 - Gold and silver — breakout or going sideways? 25:57 - Banks28:12 - Viewer mail35:43 - What Whalen is watching next week
Transcribe →#347 Louis Gave: $120 Oil Breaks Everything — And Nobody Is Ready
Mar 1200:58:45Tap to summarizeLouis-Vincent Gave, founder and CEO of Gavekal Research, joins Julia to break down the three prices that drive every investment decision — the dollar, the 10-year treasury, and oil — and why right now all three are flashing red. With the Strait of Hormuz under threat, Louis explains why he sees oil heading toward $120 and why that number breaks the global economy. He makes the case that the traditional 60/40 portfolio is dead and should be replaced with 60% equities, 20% precious metals, and 20% energy. He reveals why the Chinese renminbi is the most undervalued asset on the planet, why China already won the trade war, and why the US is in greater danger of crushing its allies than itself. One of the most thought-provoking macro conversations you'll hear this year.Links: https://web.gavekal.com/https://x.com/gave_vincentTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome 01:22 The 3 prices that drive everything: dollar, 10-year, oil 2:38 Oil went from $65 to $85 — but Louis fears $120-150 4:08 Why the oil futures curve isn't pricing in a prolonged crisis 5:06 Dollar bear market — why the rebound won't last 6:28 "If truth is the first casualty of war, bonds are a close second" 6:53 The binary outcome on Iran — both scenarios are bad for bonds 7:51 Regime change = Berlin Wall moment — but real rates explode 9:44 "Tails I lose, heads I don't win" — the bond market trap 11:33 $100 oil and Trump's political predicament 13:41 Trump wanted lower energy — "the road to hell is paved with good intentions" 14:06 Why $100 oil is "right pocket, left pocket" for the US 15:58 The real victims: Europe, Taiwan, Korea, Japan 17:23 90% of Hormuz oil heads east — not to the US 18:39 Missing 15 million barrels: prices skyrocket or demand collapses 20:28 Why energy is the best hedge for your portfolio right now 21:50 The new portfolio: 60% equities, 20% precious metals, 20% energy 22:07 The four quadrants framework explained 25:40 Why the 60/40 portfolio is officially dead 27:52 Gold is NOT an inflation hedge — what it actually is 28:37 Why central banks started buying gold after Russia asset seizure 30:08 Western retail has completely missed the gold bull market 31:32 The broken equation: US treasuries no longer equal commodities 32:59 The next shift — stockpiling physical commodities 33:15 "I'm bearish on the dollar and treasuries — but the US has pocket aces" 34:38 Four pillars: fundamentals, momentum, positioning, valuation 36:40 Where Louis sees opportunity: Chile, Brazil, China, South Africa 37:21 China for beginners — the biggest misconceptions 39:05 China's growth miracle — it wasn't central planning 42:06 The Hunger Games of capitalism 44:24 How China really views the Iran war — purely economic 46:46 The most underappreciated macro theme right now 48:19 "Stupidly, stupidly undervalued" — the renminbi slam dunk trade 50:41 Why China kept the RMB artificially low for 8 years 51:49 The weaponization of China's own savings52:35 "China went to the gym" — why it could stand up to Trump 54:18 Who won the trade war? 56:12 The one risk keeping Louis up at night 57:08 "$120 oil breaks stuff" — the number to watch
Transcribe →#346 David Woo: The Market Is Completely Wrong About Iran, Oil & What Comes Next
Mar 1001:05:01Tap to summarizeMacro trends blogger and economist David Woo, CEO of David Woo Unbound and co-author of the upcoming financial thriller Merry Go Round Broke Down, returns to the show to break down the geopolitical and market implications of the US-Iran conflict. Woo argues that markets are dangerously mispricing the situation, betting either on a quick Trump "TACO" or a rapid US victory — both of which he sees as unlikely. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, oil sitting near $100 a barrel, and Iran executing a measured, strategic response, Woo believes this conflict is far more protracted than Wall Street is pricing. He explains why Trump, now effectively a lame duck after the Supreme Court's tariff ruling, is unlikely to back down given the enormous legacy stakes, and why China's deep investment in Iran makes this the first real US-China proxy war. Woo also breaks down the winners and losers globally, shares his current positioning — short stocks, long oil — and warns that an interaction between rising oil prices, the AI bubble, and private credit stress could be the perfect storm markets aren't prepared for.Links: Book: https://www.amazon.com/Merry-Go-Round-Broke-Down-Novel-Globalization/dp/B0GCX8Y6KTYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DavidWooUnbound Website: https://www.davidwoounbound.com/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/Davidwoounbound00:00 Introduction00:43 Setting the geopolitical stage01:16 Why markets are dangerously complacent03:34 Why Trump won't TACO this time05:50 Trump's legacy shift — why Iran, why now07:48 Iran's military capabilities — what the US hasn't destroyed10:14 Oil at $95 — what's actually priced in12:47 The Strait of Hormuz and what markets are missing15:11 Can the Fed cut rates at $100 oil?16:00 Retail investors driving the market higher17:56 Global recession risk19:57 Winners and losers — Canada, Russia, Europe, Japan20:27 Why the midterms are almost irrelevant now24:41 Base case — Trump loses the House26:00 Why Trump is moving on Iran before lame duck sets in28:09 Regime change and the greatest presidential legacy29:55 China-Iran railroad and the real proxy war31:24 Can the US control the Strait of Hormuz?33:00 The Houthis playbook 35:15 UAE under attack — interceptors running out37:04 Iran's civilization and strategic depth39:12 David's positions — short stocks, long oil40:42 When will markets wake up?43:21 Most likely outcome — civil war not regime change45:11 What Xi Jinping is thinking right now47:03 Is this worth the risk for the US?49:43 The Pearl Harbor analogy and China's Belt and Road52:39 Gold, crowded trades getting blown out55:38 Private credit, the AI bubble and the perfect storm58:44 What's keeping David up at night — AI01:03:07 David's book — Merry Go Round Broke Down
Transcribe →#345 Chris Whalen: Private Credit Is Blowing Up, Nobody In Washington Is Paying Attention, and the Trump Administration Is Heading Toward a Financial Crisis
Mar 700:37:58Tap to summarizeIn this episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen warns the Trump administration is heading toward a financial crisis, driven by private credit contagion, hidden leverage, and a Washington that isn't paying attention. He breaks down the BlackRock blowup, the PIK loan problem, Iran's market impact, and explains why he's buying gold and staying out of financials.Thank you to our partners at Goldco. Get your free 2026 Gold & Silver Kit at https://goldco.com/thewrapLinks: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen00:36 - Classic risk-off period we'll remember for years 02:42 - Lloyd Blankfein says private credit "smells like 2008" — is he right? 05:00 - BlackRock marks $25M loan from 100 cents to zero in 3 months06:50 - Apollo CEO calls this a "shake out" 09:08 -Goldco 10:08 - PIK loans & "POOP" structures — is this the beginning of a default wave? 13:26 - Where Whalen is putting his own money right now 16:03 - "Every asset class is short interest rate volatility" — what that means for you 18:05 - Will the Fed cut rates? Whalen says yes — possibly as soon as March 19:46 - Nobody in Washington is talking about financial contagion — who should be? 22:22 - Tariffs: why Whalen calls the $175B refund story a "huge nothing"23:04 - Gold & silver: why Whalen is more confident than ever on precious metals 26:07 - Iran escalates: what it means for markets & why there's no endgame 27:08 - Teapot Dome, Warren Harding & the Trump parallel 30:37 - Viewer Mail: Is your annuity at risk if private credit blows up?31:49 - Viewer Mail: Is there an MBS story to the private credit unraveling?33:00 - Viewer Mail: The Fed's balance sheet surge — should you be worried? 35:00 - Viewer Mail: Are we heading back to a gold-based monetary system? 36:30 - Final thoughts: what Whalen is watching next week
Transcribe →#344 Chris Whalen: Private Credit Is Unraveling, Consumer Credit Is Cracking, and Silver Surges
Feb 2800:32:45Tap to summarizeIn this week's episode of The Wrap, Chris Whalen breaks down the unraveling of private credit and why retail investors were never suitable for these investments in the first place. He explains how private credit shops have quietly gained access to Federal Home Loan Bank funding through insurance company acquisitions — a taxpayer-subsidized arrangement he finds extraordinary and plans to investigate further. On markets, Chris argues liquidity will be the defining theme of 2026, with money rotating out of speculative and private assets back into public markets. He also flags early warning signs in consumer credit, names the specific companies to watch for deterioration, and explains why the mortgage market needs rates to fall further before any real pickup in activity. On precious metals, Chris details a seismic secular shift underway as India joins China in moving away from COMEX pricing toward Asian markets — and warns that if COMEX cannot deliver physical metal against futures contracts, it could be forced out of the business entirely.Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingLinks: The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ Timestamps:0:00 Intro and welcome to The Wrap with Chris Whalen0:49 Private credit is unraveling — are retail investors about to run like Silicon Valley Bank3:51 The insurance company play5:20 Does the insurance and private credit connection create contagion risk6:05 Nvidia beats but the market sells it — is the AI trade structurally broken8:07 Why has the broader market held up despite the tech and SaaS selloff9:00 Liquidity is the theme of 2026 10:12 Banks discussion 14:49 Mortgage market — 30 year rates dip below 6%, does it last16:42 Will we see more rate cuts — Chris's expectations for Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair18:37 What it would take to unlock the housing market20:34 Tariffs21:50 The most important things for markets to focus on right now22:36 Silver — COMEX and London are losing their role as price setters26:36 Chris's portfolio — gold, silver, junior miners and why productive capacity matters27:18 Viewer question — Basel III, central banks, and gold as a tier one asset29:44 What Chris is watching and writing about next week31:12 Where to find Chris and The Institutional Risk Analyst — 25% off for viewers
Transcribe →#247 Chris Whalen: Tariffs Are a Distraction - The Real Story Is America's Retreat from Global Currency Dominance
Apr 5, 202500:33:33Tap to summarizeChris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 247 to discuss tariffs, markets, and the economy. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Chris Whalen explains why the tariff debate is largely a distraction - part of Trump's "shock and awe" strategy to force trading partners to negotiate fairer terms as America attempts to end the Bretton Woods system after 75 years. He sees credit deterioration emerging in auto loans and credit cards while warning about multi-family housing defaults, particularly in smaller urban properties where market indicators show values 50% below their last sale. Despite market fears, Whalen believes the bond market is already cutting rates regardless of Fed action, with the 10-year yield dropping to 3.94% due to strong demand for risk-free collateral and Treasury's efforts to reduce auction sizes. He predicts financial consolidation will continue, pointing to the mortgage industry shrinking to just five major lender/servicer groups, while suggesting investors should look for stock opportunities despite current volatility.Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571XStanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/ 0:00 Introduction1:27 Tariffs 3:03 Market reaction assessment5:11 Investment strategy amid volatility7:40 Historical context of tariffs10:37 Main Street vs Wall Street priorities11:17 Impact and distribution of tariff costs13:30 Consumer credit and lending trends15:34 Multi-family housing defaults17:36 Real estate overbuilding concerns18:17 Consumer recession outlook20:46 Job market and recession dynamics22:57 Fed outlook and rate environment24:52 Balance sheet impact discussion26:56 Treasury market outlook29:36 Client questions about market positioning30:57 Closing remarks and contact information
Transcribe →#246 Jim Rickards on MAGANOMICS: Tariffs Are America's Comeback Plan, Gold Party Just Getting Started, And The Time Bomb Nobody Sees Coming
Apr 1, 202501:03:25Tap to summarizeJim Rickards returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss "MAGAnomics" - the multi-faceted economic strategy of the Trump administration. Rickards explains the three-legged stool of Trump's economic policy: Bessent's 3-3-3 Plan, Navarro's tariff strategy, and Miran's "Mar-a-Lago Accord." He warns of a potential "time bomb" in the financial system if Treasury Bills are swapped for 100-year bonds, discusses why central banks are racing to buy gold, and explains why the current gold rally is "just getting started." Rickards also shares his market outlook, predicting continued market decline and potential recession before long-term economic gains can be realized. This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit monetary-metals.com/julia More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links: https://www.amazon.com/MoneyGPT-AI-Threat-Global-Economy/dp/0593718631http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://x.com/realjimrickards0:00 - Intro and welcome Jim Rickards 1:04 - Big picture 3:01 - Tariff strategies and market impact4:49 - Auto industry specifics and tariff implications6:50 - Discussion on economic principles and strategies11:05 - Geopolitical impacts of oil pricing13:17 - How tariffs work in practice15:27 - Benefits of tariffs and job creation in the US16:50 - Economic agreements and strategies27:11 - Treasury strategies and fiscal policies30:07 - Federal land resources and economic opportunities31:27 - U.S. financial stability and government strategies33:26 - Dynamics of U.S. Treasury securities35:34 - Importance of Treasury bills in global finance38:32 - Necessity of short-term Treasury bills39:58 - Discussion on U.S. dollar and trade policies42:37 - Globalization and economic policies44:02 - Assessment of current economic moves45:25 - Gold market dynamics and central bank activities48:49 - Geopolitical strategy using economic tools51:13 - Global gold demand and production53:45 - Market psychology and gold pricing 54:15 - Future prospects of gold market 55:10 - Economic forecasts and stock market trends 58:05 - Interest rate policies and economic implications 59:38 - Final thoughts and where to find Jim Rickards' work
Transcribe →#245 Axel Merk: Axel Merk: How Trump's Trade Policies Could Disrupt Global Financial Plumbing
Mar 25, 202500:34:26Tap to summarizeAxel Merk, CIO and founder of Merk Investments with over $2 billion in AUM, shares his perspective on the current macro landscape. He explores how Trump's executive policies around trade and tariffs might alter the "plumbing" of the global financial system, potentially disrupting international capital flows that have long benefited the US. Merk discusses gold's performance as a possible warning signal, stagflationary risks in the economy, and why there is "no such thing as a safe asset" in today's investment environment. With 30 years of investment experience, he provides analysis on monetary policy, inflation concerns, and portfolio diversification strategies for navigating these uncertain times.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/juliaTimestamps0:00 Intro and welcome Axel Merk1:11 The big macro picture - viewing through executive policy3:34 Disruption to global financial flows4:30 Potential consequences of changing financial plumbing6:51 Role of the Federal Reserve in market disruptions8:25 What the market gets right and wrong10:26 Gold as a contrarian indicator11:57 Drivers behind gold's performance14:54 Axel's position on gold investments16:00 Investment advice for different types of investors19:12 The "popcorn" investment strategy20:31 Stagflationary risks remain22:05 Growth potential amid regulatory changes24:53 Managing investment risks in volatile times27:47 Long-term debt and entitlement concerns30:46 Global reflation efforts vs US fiscal contraction31:42 Where to find Axel Merk and final thoughts
Transcribe →#244 Peter Boockvar: Three Major Market Shifts Creating Recession Risk
Mar 21, 202500:34:52Tap to summarizePeter Boockvar explains why investors must discard the playbook that has worked for the past few years due to three major shifts: the end of the MAG7 tech trade, potential cuts in government spending, and declining foreign flows into US assets. Boockvar notes that these seven stocks reached 35% of the S&P 500 - exceeding the concentration seen in March 2000 - while becoming a global "reserve currency" with central banks like Norway's Norges Bank and the Swiss National Bank owning billions in shares. He identifies emerging opportunities in international markets, with the German DAX up 17% and Hang Seng up 20% year-to-date, while warning that reduced government spending combined with weakening tech investment creates recession risk. Boockvar believes the Fed has diminished power in a new 3-4% inflation environment, pointing to record copper prices as evidence while noting that US defense manufacturers and technology companies face growing international competition.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvarBleakley Financial Group: https://www.bleakley.com/Timestamps: 0:00 Introduction and welcome Peter Boockvar0:55 Big picture market changes post-COVID3:22 End of AI tech trade dominance5:50 Foreign central bank investment in US stocks7:47 Market pivot to international opportunities10:12 Fed and Treasury coordination on bond yields12:34 Market bounce and valuation concerns14:28 New inflationary environment limiting Fed options16:53 Record copper prices amid inflation volatility18:02 Geopolitical shifts in commodity holdings20:17 Investment opportunities in China tech22:42 Portfolio management in changing market leadership25:12 Foreign flows into US stocks and dollar implications28:21 Recession risk assessment30:33 Closing thoughts on investment approach changes32:57 Final remarks and sign-off
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