
Welcome back to another episode of the unSeminary podcast. Today we’re joined by Dr. Warren Bird—author, researcher, and one of the most trusted voices in church leadership studies. Warren has co-authored over 35 books for pastors and church leaders,
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Rich Birch
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Unseminary Podcast Host
Welcome to the Unseminary Podcast, the place where church leaders get practical insights, tips and strategies for ministry growth. Today, you're stepping into something bigger than just a conversation. This podcast is part of a bold mission to help 100 churches grow by 1,000 people. Whether you're dreaming of increasing your impact in your community, empowering your team, or reaching more people with the message of Jesus, you're in the right place. We're here to bring you the stuff you wish they taught in seminary, ideas and tools you can put into action this week to see transformation in your ministry. Let's dive in.
Rich Birch
Hey friends, welcome to the Unseminary Podcast. We are honored to have a guest with us, Dr. Warren Bird today who what can I say about Warren Bird? He is Co authored 35 books for church leaders, but it's more that not that he's just written a bunch of books. These are a number of the books that from my perspective are like the go tos on their topic Hero Maker on Leadership Development, Better Together on Healthy Mergers, Next on Pastoral Succession, Resilience Factor on Effective Leadership Teams and his latest is Incredible, Incredible Becoming a Future Ready Church on these eight emerging church trends. He's not only an author, but he's also a researcher and the work that he produces I think is among the best that's out there. His background is a pastor, seminary professor. He was a research director at Leadership Network and was the executive vice president of research at ecfa, the Evangelical Council for Financial Accountability. Warren, I am so glad to have you here. He's also. One of the distinctions Warren has is he's one of the few people that I've said, anytime you want to come on the podcast, you come on, we'll make space. And so he reached out. Happy to have Warren on. Welcome. So glad you're here.
Dr. Warren Bird
Wow, Rich, you just rattled all that off. It's like my life story. I could do that for you because you are so articulate and the impact you've had on me. I listen to your podcast very regularly, the consulting insights, when you and I are sharing a speaking platform and all, so I could have done the same thing for you, but thank you for having me.
Rich Birch
Oh, that's kind of you. That's kind of you to say that today we're. You're in the midst of one of the things I love about Warren, and you might know this, if you bump into him at a conference, he's always working on some project, and he's always wants to pick your brain about, hey, like, I'm working on this thing. Got this thing coming up, and we were at a conference recently, and he was talking about his latest research project. And so why don't you talk to us about the study that you're currently engaged in? And friends, I want you to stay tuned because we're gonna. I'm gonna try to pull some early results out of Warren. This is the first place that some of these results talked about, so you're getting an exclusive here, which is great, or a first, because you're listening in today. But what is this study that you're working on?
Dr. Warren Bird
So, Rich, the world of large churches. Let's. Let's just say in person, attendance of a thousand and higher. You know, that was a big change in the face of the North American, actually, the global church, the rise of the large church in the last 50 or so years. But now we've had the pandemic where large churches were hit the hardest. Unless you were in, like, Florida or Texas, where they didn't even participate in the pandemic. But the rest of us got hit hard.
Rich Birch
Yes.
Dr. Warren Bird
And. And the question is, have they come back? And if they've come back, are they different? And then there's that growing skepticism of, you know, well, are big churches actually an asset or a liability? To what extent do they actually make their communities better? To what extent are they really healthy and vital versus, you know, are. Are they an inch deep and a mile wide? What's the level of financial transparency? I mean, you look at, you listen to headlines in the media and they always have adjectives in front of the word megachurch, like rich megachurch or something even more disparaging. Well, how, how quote rich are they? Do people give more because they go to a larger church? And more important, you know, what's the level of transparency and discipleship that's there? And, and fundamentally what's the bar of discipleship? And, and what are churches who are exploding with growth in particular, are they giving out free coffee or are you, are they giving out Jesus in a way that's resonating with the population around them? So it's time to explore and to say, well, what's happening and the best way to do it? I mean, we hang out at conferences, Rich, because I don't want to just ask questions out of the top of my mind. I want to know what people want to know about their world, their peers. And I can put that in a question and find out from a bunch of churches and then come back to you and say, well, here's the lay of the land and more importantly, here's what seems to be around the next corner for churches that they are anticipating. Can you tell I'm excited about this project2025.
Rich Birch
Great. That's the link. We're driving towards that today, friends. And you're looking particularly for churches over a thousand is the kind of in person attendance. Yeah, in person attendance, that's adults and.
Dr. Warren Bird
Children, all your campuses, every note that's there on a, on a given weekend, you know, is it somewhere around a thousand to up to a hundred thousand.
Rich Birch
And all those people over a hundred thousand? We're asking you not to participate. Yeah, that's great. That's.
Dr. Warren Bird
So another story. I, I just interviewed the pastor of the Africa's third largest attendance church and they would be more than a hundred thousand on a weekend across their campuses. But that's another story.
Rich Birch
Yeah, I love that. So a couple things just while we're kind of establishing why this particular study. So there does seem to be this undercurrent in the culture in general. I don't know whether it's just the church culture that's like, it kind of looks down on large churches. In fact, I was at an event earlier this year of large church pastors where the vibe there for sure was like. And it's one of these kind of like social things. They get all their people together and it's outside of they're all from the same denomination, but it's not run by the denomination, they just do it themselves. And the reason is, is because they feel like, oh, everybody else looks down on us. So why is that, why do, why is it that we seem as, as Christians to kind of, I don't know, it's like we, we look at these large churches suspiciously. Why do you think that is?
Dr. Warren Bird
A lot of reasons. The, probably the biggest reason is the cultural distrust of institutions, church included. And that's all the major institutions. Somehow we think, and I'll just use a wild example that going to go fund me where there's zero accountability, that my money is going to be better used than in an established non profit or Christ centered nonprofit or church or whatever. And it's like really? But that's the tenor of the culture. And there have been enough scandals that the media has highlighted that people like okay, yeah, you're raising money for the church van for the youth. I mean that's a great idea. But I, you know, do I have any confidence that that's what's happening? That's just on the money side. There's so many other factors that influence the distrust in large organized religion.
Rich Birch
Yeah, it's so true. You were saying about the, you know, when you see any scandal write ups if something goes sideways at a church, they talk about a rich megachurch or an affluent megachurch or a whatever. The other thing that bugs me in those reports is they always talk about, well, you know, they have a rock and roll band and like they, they kind of talk about some of the stuff we do as if it's like, well that's the reason, the only reason why people are there. So interesting stuff.
Dr. Warren Bird
So rich. Let me put this in context. Yes, I am all for every single church, whether it's three people, 30 people, 300, 3,000, 30,000, whatever, if they are making disciples of Jesus Christ and even more so if they are making disciple makers of Jesus Christ. Now when a church is explosively growing and it's genuine.
Rich Birch
Mm.
Dr. Warren Bird
I'm just thrilled by it because large churches have the opportunity to do things that other sized churches don't. Like, let's say special needs ministry that often is very volunteer intensive and sometimes staff intensive and may require a certain room, you know, a quiet room or ability to do things structurally with your facility that, that just not every church can do but, but large churches can. So I'm trying to zero in on, okay, every church size can do something. Well and actually the survey at BIT LY Largechurch2025 is part of a series that's going to compare against every other size. So for example, the average pastor age or the average pastor tenure or the average whatever we're going to be able to do across all sizes. I'm doing the very large church size.
Rich Birch
And.
Dr. Warren Bird
That'S the size that's hardest to get good data on. And I'm bullish on the outreach on the impact on their communities. In fact, Let me leak one early finding. Sure. We gave 15 things where we said, have these changed since the pandemic? Have they gone increase, stay the same or gone down? The number two vote at present is our service and impact on our local community.
Rich Birch
Interesting.
Dr. Warren Bird
That's such a positive thing, especially for large churches.
Rich Birch
That's amazing. You know, one of the things in the coaching I've done with churches, we talk about magnetic community service as a key piece of an invite culture that people want to be a part of a church that is not only making a difference, but they want to be seen as being a part of a church that's making a difference so that I can invite my friends to come be a part of that. And it's interesting as I've talked with some large churches about that, you know, we'll talk about this particular area and they're like, oh, we've never thought of that as like a way for us to reach our community. They're like, it just seems like the thing we should do. And I'm like, no, you should be inviting first time guests to come and do that to be a part of. But that's cool to see now. So what you said number two, what was number one? Yeah, I'm going to try to milk more of this out of you here of these things, if you don't mind saying.
Dr. Warren Bird
Very exciting, very exciting. It's the spiritual response by young adults.
Rich Birch
Interesting.
Dr. Warren Bird
Wow. In other words, the people that we're able to impact as a church who are young adults, we have seen a clear increase in the spiritual interest of that group. Wow.
Rich Birch
Isn't that interesting? We're seeing that in a number of places. Right.
Dr. Warren Bird
That's another thing about large churches. They are disproportionately bulging in not only the children next gen, but also in that 20 somethings age is usually a sizable percentage of especially newer large churches.
Rich Birch
I was just with the church a couple of weeks ago and they were talking about, and they're a large church and they were kind of thinking, they were like, I would say disparagingly about their own ministry and they're like, you know, young people just don't want large churches. They want a small, intimate thing. And I challenge them on that. Now I'm looking forward because when the study comes out, I can give them an actual stat.
Dr. Warren Bird
Okay, Rich, I'm going to tease another finding then.
Rich Birch
Yes. Okay.
Dr. Warren Bird
Because I've sat and listened to your. And tell us the name of the title of your latest book where you talk about different growth strategies.
Rich Birch
Breaking the 200 barrier or 2000 barrier is the title of the book I'm working on.
Dr. Warren Bird
Wow. Okay. So this survey that I'm doing actually has been done every five years since the year 2000.
Rich Birch
Okay.
Dr. Warren Bird
And it's fascinating to see the same question, the answer every 2005-2010-2015-2020, just before the pandemic, and now 2025 after the pandemic. And one of the questions is, it's an agree disagree statement that how important are small groups or teams for the Christian formation and discipleship in your church? And when it was first asked many years ago, it was right at 50%. Every single survey it has inched up. And the last survey, it was 89%. And I thought, we're not going to top that because you don't get, you know, 90 or more percent in any survey of anything. But the responses so far, 92% give the highest rank to small groups, which translated is you get bigger by getting smaller. And that intimacy that you were reflecting on, that's what. Where people thrive. That's the hub of discipleship. And that's essential for the larger. You get to know how to do that well. Plus, of course, that's where so many of your lay leaders are developed and everything else.
Rich Birch
Yeah. And we, on a. From a practitioner point of view, we know that, like, large churches have to get good at that. Like, you have to get good at moving people into smaller communities. You've got to figure out how. You can't. People will come for whatever you're doing on the weekend, but they will not stick and stay long term. They. They have to find a group of small, you know, a small group of friends that they're connecting with. My parents, most of their. My dad moved, I think 23 times in his career. Moved a lot and went to a bunch of different churches, I think like 18 different churches or something over the years, and mostly small churches. I've mostly worked in large churches, and if I'm honest, they would never say it this way because they love me and they're good parents. I always felt like they kind of looked down on the large church thing. They're like, I don't know, I don't know. They at one point were moving to Louisville, Kentucky and I said, you got to go to Southeast. At least try going to Southeast and check it out. Just check it out for one weekend. They ended up getting connected there, stuck and stayed, loved it. And they would say too, and it's a massive church, probably like it's up there, top single digit, the largest church in the country, somewhere in that range. And they would say to this day that was the church that they felt the most connected at, not the church of, you know, 200 people. We've got to get really good at that for sure. Any other findings that are kind of interesting for us to kick around?
Dr. Warren Bird
Yeah, I, I, what I did, Rich, before the survey is I got a whole bunch of people together who work with churches and say, tell me what you think might be on the horizon that I can test for. And one of the things I then worded questions to test for is are, is the locus of where future pastors, leaders, missionaries are coming from? Is it, is it less from the seminaries as points of origin? You know, I'm going to go to seminary and try to figure out what God has for my life and more happening there in the local church. And just for example, if you take all the churches of 5,000 and higher in attendance that have completed the survey so far and you ask do you have a residency program or equivalent? And I give them a whole bunch of words because everybody calls it something different but designed to train future church leaders.
Rich Birch
Right.
Dr. Warren Bird
So far in the findings, 92% have said yes.
Rich Birch
Wow.
Dr. Warren Bird
And then when we said okay, if yes, then how many people during the course of 20, 25 are you training? And the median is 15.
Rich Birch
Wow.
Dr. Warren Bird
That doesn't mean just really large churches are doing it. I also checked for 2000 up, 1000 up, and they're all at different levels doing some kind of serious ministerial training. So this is pipeline, pathway, whatever you want to call it that you know from, to use the phrase of another church, starting with the irreligious person who comes and finds a vital, life changing forgiveness relationship with Jesus Christ. And then if gifted, there is just no lack of steps you can take toward leadership if God's calling should continue in that particular way, all the way towards a ministry residency, towards doing something vocationally full time.
Rich Birch
Wow, that's incredible. 92% that, that's shocking to me. That's surprising. That's incredible. For churches over 5,000. I wonder one of the things I'll look forward to when the study comes out is seeing how that gradiates with churches that are say, at 2000.
Dr. Warren Bird
Right. And that's what we'll do in the report. For those who take the survey, by the way, they get the report.
Rich Birch
What is that link again?
Dr. Warren Bird
And but wait, there's more. Those who take the survey get an exclusive webinar where we unveil it and do q and a with us and special guests like Sam chan. And we've got a whole bunch of people lined up who are going to kind of ask the tough questions of the data. And again, it's at bit ly largechurch 2025. And so participate and then be the first to get these wonderful reports that we'll do.
Rich Birch
You know, that's interesting because I, you know, I'm always looking for what are the behaviors at a kind of certain level of church that changes as they become larger. And that's actually that book I'm working on that really is what it kind of is. Is based around. And one of them, there's these eight different things that I've. I've just seen. And so I'm out talking to other church leaders. And one of them is they go from reactive volunteering to proactive volunteer growth that like a church of a church of 800 or a church of 500 is like, oh, we need people for this. But then to really break that 2000 barrier, churches have to. They move to or we see them move to. Okay, actually we see that moving people into places of their gifting their what's kind of best for them and also trying to find a way to create more space for more volunteers is a behavior that we see. I wonder if in this one, as churches go from 2,000 to 3,000 to 5,000, there's like, it's just kind of that behavior even just extended all the way up through the kind of staffing experience where it's like, hey, we've got to develop our leaders from within. That's. That's amazing. That's. That's incredible.
Dr. Warren Bird
Yeah, it's. To me, it's exciting.
Rich Birch
Oh, for sure.
Dr. Warren Bird
It's just thrilling to imagine the impact because frankly, last weekend of the people who went to a protestant church, at least in the United States, somewhat around half or more went to a large church and where you cut. Do the cutoff for what becomes large. But this is a. A small number of churches, relatively speaking, 320,000U.S churches and at least in the megachurch department, 2000 higher. They're only like 1800 or so. And then when you go into the thousand range, it. It adds a chunk more churches. But. But this is a disproportionate number of churches. And if they get leadership development. Right. The impact, the ripple effect to bless all churches and all communities has great potential.
Rich Birch
Well, and this, absolutely. This has been so much of the work that you've done over the years, which I think has been such a blessing to so many churches, is you have mined out these insights, these resort that, that then have become resources that then all of us can apply regardless of our church size. So even down the road, when the study comes out, if you're not a large church, this would be a great study for you to read.
Dr. Warren Bird
Yeah. And we will make it available to the public. But it's just those who take the survey at, did I mention it? Bit ly largechurch2025. And it closes for those who may be listening to this later. November 11, 2025. That's your cutoff for midnight that night. Whatever your midnight is. U.S. churches take the survey. So. But Rich, you know, let me just tell you some of the questions we're asking. I'd love to get your feedback on, for example.
Rich Birch
Okay, sure.
Dr. Warren Bird
First, the stereotype of a, Of a mega church, for example, is that they have this colossal sanctuary like, like Lakewood Church, you know, the seat 16,000 all. But the reality is typically the largest venue, and we're asking this, but I haven't looked at it for this survey so far, is about 1400, which means, you know, you have multiple campuses, multiple services and so forth. Which leads to the question is the. Is the spiritual commitment? Is there any relationship between facility size and, and the amount of volunteering, giving or anything else? Are there factors that proportion with the size of your largest worship venue? We'll have some numbers on that. But, Rich, do you have any predictions?
Rich Birch
Well, so I'm looking forward. This could be one of those areas where I have been giving bad advice, but I have been saying for a long time, 15 years, think smaller rooms, more. More services, more campuses rather than, you know, fewer. And the logic. I. The reason why I say that is like, let's say you take like, my friends at Flatirons, they have 4,000 seats in their, in their biggest room. You only, only quote, unquote, you only need maybe five or six people on the worship band. You know, and that room only has. I think there's. I think there's only four entrances to that room. So you only need maybe eight people to actually be like, Usher, greet at the door. Man, I want to see way more volunteer engagement than that. I want to see, you know, for 4,000 people to only have, say, a dozen volunteers, man, that's, that's like the wrong kind of efficiency. I'd rather go the other way. Let's have a smaller room. Let's have eight rooms of 500. Where then now we require a whole bunch of more people to be involved, to make it happen, which is then going to drive all kinds of the other positive behavior around. Inviting and them being, leaning in more, all of that. So I would say I think there's a sweet spot. I think, you know, it's. Well, I've heard that 14, 1500 number before. I think it's, you know, 500, a thousand. Somewhere in there, there's like this interesting sweet spot. If I was going to guess, I would think as it goes down, as it goes up, that kind of engagement and some of those participation numbers go down over a certain number. So that's my prediction. We'll see.
Dr. Warren Bird
All right, Rich Birch predicts we will. We will see what happens. All right, let me, let me ask you another one, Rich. Yes, there are a lot of definitions to the attractional model and there are a lot of questions. People saying, you know, is the attractional model, they use strong words like dead, but yes, is it lessening, and if so, what is replacing it? And we've asked enough different types of questions about involvement and, you know, where's your front door? Primary front door, and that most newcomers come and all that. I think we're going to be able to tease out which churches are strongly attractional and, and how strongly they're growing versus which churches are not and how strongly they're growing and which churches are doing other things like, let's say community service emphases, justice emphases how that impacts growth. Do you have any prediction as to where you think it's going to land when all these listeners of yours in large churches take the survey at bit ly largechurch2025?
Rich Birch
Well, you got me on a bit of a high horse. I'll try not to preach about the death of the attractional church, but I can say so. Last year I turned one of those numbers my birthday that had a zero at the end. That started for me to think like, okay, I've been in this for a long time. And one of the things that I've noticed is in the people we serve is I do think when I started 20, 30 years ago, you could do things that were Classically attractional. Like, and, and we would have never said we're trying to entertain people. Like, we were more spiritual than that. We would have never said, like, put on a good band, be funny, have like a stand up comic, do. Like, we wouldn't have said that. Although those were all the things we were trying to do. And I actually think that worked, but I actually don't think that works anymore because the people that we're serving has changed. I'm convinced that the people that are coming in our front doors, in every zip code in the country is more unchurched today than it was 20 years ago. And so people are coming, they're pushing through some sort of cultural resistance to be there. They don't just stumble into church like they used to.
Dr. Warren Bird
Right. They're choosing church over any number of other things they could have done on a Sunday morning. And they're coming to find God.
Rich Birch
Yes. They're coming with actual questions. Like, they're like, I, my marriage is falling apart, my life is not doing well. Who is Jesus? Does any of this make a difference? And so, you know, the classic attractional model I would think is in decline. And that comes from someone I'll introduce myself in situations like, listen, I came from the attractional church movement. That is my background, that is my heritage. But I, that I think model has shifted now. Now it's not like we've moved to repulsive church. It's not like that works. We don't want our churches to push people away. And I do think that there has been, I don't know if you're teasing this out as well. I have also noticed, man, a lot of our worship services, they look a lot similar. I've been In, I think 22 churches in the last year where I've been like there on a Sunday in a church. Most of those churches north of 500, less than, well, I guess there's a bunch that are quite large, but north of 500. And it's interesting how we're, a lot of us are doing a very similar kind of participatory raised hands, come to the front, get prayed for that, whatever you call that, that sure is a great band. And there is somebody that's like, they know what they're doing from a communications point of view, all that, but there seems to be, I don't know whether that's just me, but it seems like there's more homogeneity in the church than I maybe even realized was there. I'm not sure that's what I would.
Dr. Warren Bird
Say homogeneity in terms of experiential. And I think the pandemic, one of the silver linings is churches said we need to distinguish what the value is in coming in person versus watching. And you can't be hugged. And please don't anyone hear me as disparaging the incredibly wonderful outreach by the. The Internet that so many churches have with their digital ministries. But, but to come in person, I can be hugged. I can. I can be prayed over in person with somebody holding my hands to pray. I can tactically, you know, take the Lord's supper, communion, whatever you call it in person in a way that. That's in community that I just can't do online by myself, even. Even with my family. And that's. That's one of the many polls for people coming back. And I'm hoping in the survey to learn a little bit more as to what is drawing people today in different aspects of a increased hunger for God.
Rich Birch
Yeah, that's good. I. I can see. I can see that. How. You know, there's been a shift around that and intrigued to see what comes out of. Is there. Is there one. One last question that you listen, you get to actually shape the questions that you're like, super intrigued. You don't have to reveal the early results, but like you're really looking forward to. I know that's like picking which is your favorite children. I understand. But like, you know, are there any. Any other questions that you're really super intrigued to see what comes out?
Dr. Warren Bird
Yeah, it's just the whole idea of the comeback. We ask people, what was your worship attendance in 2019, which would be. Remember, the pandemic was March of 2020. So this is well before anybody had any inkling of what was to come. And ask, what is the attendance in person today? Total notices and to wonder because the larger the church, typically, as I mentioned earlier, the harder you were hitting during the pandemic and. And the slower often you were to do the comeback. So. So have they regained to where they were and what is. First. First of all, so far, 53% limiting just let's say the megachurch is 2000 higher. 53% have come back at least 10% more than they were in 2019.
Rich Birch
Wow.
Dr. Warren Bird
But. But some have spectacularly, dramatically come back three times the size. Two times the size. Wow. And. And I want to isolate those off. And there is a small group, but it's still a definite group that has not. And they're taking the survey. And if that's you, please Take the survey because we want to say, okay, what's happening in those churches that's different from those? So. So we'll go look across the spectrum of comeback. But if someone said, nope, the, the era of the megachurch is dead. Oh, oh, oh. And the era of the people said, oh, megachurches are just a baby boomer phenomenon, you know, with pastors just getting older and older. And, you know, so far the average pastor age is considerably younger senior pastor than when we did the survey five years ago, which says there's a whole new generation, at least enough of that generation of younger church planters or otherwise, that are becoming large churches. And I say church planters because from our survey five years ago, 82% of mega churches 2000 higher reach their size under the leadership of their current and founding pastor, same person. So I'm sorry, that's a misstatement under their current pastor, the majority of which are founding pastors. But many people come into a church that's 100 years old and, you know, for 100 years ministered effectively as a community of 50 to 75 and then just exploded under one pastor. So all that to say, I'm excited by the reaching of young adults, by the apparent getting younger of the age of the leader and the explosive growth of some. And I haven't correlated the explosive growth ones with the average age of the pastor, but we will do that. And the more people who take the survey, the more I'm able to slice and dice in that way. So please, before November 11, 2025, take the survey. It'll make a difference and it will pay you back big time in terms of data, informed wisdom that the Holy Spirit uses to help you make wise planning and strategic decisions.
Rich Birch
Well, the thing, friends, we really do want you to take this survey. You really should be tracking along with Warren and you know, he does just such great work. And this is going to be a valuable resource. I know. It'll be the thing we'll be chewing on for a long time, probably for the next five years until the next one comes around. We'll be thinking about that one. So super helpful. This is great. It's interesting, that whole thing you were talking about. I have, I've wondered. I heard this is probably two years ago on the economic side. They talked about the K recovery in some industries, that there were some that have done quite well and then some that are doing not so well. And just intuitively that has been my experience as I've talked with church leaders, that there are still like, there are people that Covid is in their rearview mirror and they're like, man, we are just like, like we're up and to the right. Things just are going. But then there's some church leaders that are still like licking their wounds and are like, man, this just is. We've not been able to recover and it's not, it's not going well.
Dr. Warren Bird
And for some, you know, the, the prime industry in their city tanked during the pandemic and there, there's been a massive departure or there was a leadership change or there was, you know, something else that, that could explain something that thwarted or, or considerably slowed down their growth and rebuilding impact.
Rich Birch
So give us that link again and the timeline it just so before but it's bit.
Dr. Warren Bird
Ly. Bitly slash forward slash largechurch 2025. That's all one word. And, and between now and November 11, 2025. And please don't wait till the last bit. I mean, you can, but, but we'd love to have you be part. And we'd love just to bless you back with all kinds of helpful guidance and information and benchmarks and ratios and everything else, if you'll participate. This will be, assuming we continue the way we are, the largest ever study of large churches in the United States.
Rich Birch
What. How long does it take? If I'm, if I'm preparing to sit down to do it, how much time should I set aside?
Dr. Warren Bird
The average is just under 20 minutes. That's a big ask. However, on the opening page of the survey, click here to get a PDF. Many people hand it to their admin and say, hey, there are certain numbers things, you can fill those in and I'll fill in the rest and then you can key it in for us or whatever. So, so while it is asking a very knowledgeable person to, to give input, it's often shared around the Office. But that 20 minutes, up to 20 minutes will pay you back big time in the feedback you get.
Rich Birch
Yeah, that's good. I just, I just referenced that because I know you gotta say, and I.
Dr. Warren Bird
Know that people have survey fatigue. Everywhere you go, you're asked, take a quick survey, which is really not quick. And so I'm just being up front and telling you what the average is.
Rich Birch
No, it's good and it's super valuable, friends. And this, this will help not only your church, but will help shape so many churches. We want to learn from you. You know, that's really what this podcast is trying to learn from other churches. This is a great thing, Warren. Where do we want to send people online if they want to track with you if they just kind of want to be in the the greater Warren Bird cinematic universe.
Dr. Warren Bird
I am full time as a church researcher and writer. I probably post the most on LinkedIn at I'm pretty easy to find there to follow me and and Rich, thank you for mentioning different books and that's the most joyful thing that happens is somebody reads like Becoming a future Ready Church, the latest book that Daniel Yang and Adele Banks and I did and then writes me an email. I'm just Google me, I'm easy to find and says I have a question or I'd like to tell you a story or whatever. So that's the way to get even more connected with me.
Rich Birch
Well, it's an honor privilege to know you. Even for folks that aren't watching the video, there's Mike Slaughter's book Unlearning Church is over your corner and that literally was a book I read when it first came out years ago and it shaped my own thinking. This is the thing that I was thinking this as we're preparing. I know I said this at the beginning, but I want to honor you with this. Your books are for sure the ones I recommend the most. Like Better Together, Hero Maker, Multisite Church Road Trip. Like there's a bunch of books that you've had your hand in next that I'm always like. Literally today I was like someone was talking about succession stuff and I was like, well you should buy Next first. Like before you do anything else, buy next. That's the book you should buy and go through that and then, you know, think about your next steps from there. So and they have that consistently with your work. So you do such good work. Thank you so much friend. So glad you're here. And let's get a bunch of people to do your survey.
Dr. Warren Bird
Take care, Rich. You're a good man. I always go out of my way to hang out with you or if we're at a gathering together to sit down at your table table or to be in your session. So keep up the great work and I look forward to the next time our paths will intersect.
Unseminary Podcast Host
Thanks for tuning in to this episode of the Unseminary Podcast. If you found today's conversation helpful, I'd share it with a friend in ministry. It's a simple way to spark new ideas and grow together. Also, don't Forget to visit unseminary.com to sign up for our email list. You'll get exclusive resources and practical tools delivered straight to your inbox to help you lead your church more effectively. Most importantly, take what you learned today and put it into action this week. Ministry Impact starts with small, intentional steps. See you next time.
Podcast: unSeminary Podcast
Host: Rich Birch
Guest: Dr. Warren Bird
Episode: "The Future of Large Churches: Early Findings from the 2025 Survey"
Date: October 9, 2025
This episode features Dr. Warren Bird, renowned author and researcher, sharing exclusive early findings from his 2025 survey on the future of large churches (defined as those with 1,000+ in-person attendance). The conversation explores post-pandemic changes, emerging trends, and challenges facing large churches, confronting both cultural skepticism and leadership development strategies. Throughout, Warren and Rich dig into what’s next for megachurches, address common criticisms, and highlight actionable insights for leaders of churches of all sizes.
Rise & Scrutiny of Large Churches:
Dr. Bird outlines how large churches have shifted the landscape over 50 years but have faced skepticism, especially post-pandemic.
"Large churches were hit the hardest... Unless you were in, like, Florida or Texas, where they didn’t even participate in the pandemic. But the rest of us got hit hard." (Dr. Warren Bird, 04:14)
Cultural Distrust of Institutions:
Growing public distrust toward large organizations, including churches, stems from broader cultural skepticism and media focus on scandals.
"Probably the biggest reason is the cultural distrust of institutions, church included... There have been enough scandals that the media highlighted..." (Dr. Warren Bird, 08:05)
Defending the Impact of Large Churches:
Bird emphasizes that all churches, regardless of size, have unique roles, but large churches can provide specialized ministries—like special needs programs—not always feasible in smaller churches.
“When a church is explosively growing and it's genuine... Large churches have the opportunity to do things that other sized churches don't.” (Dr. Warren Bird, 10:01)
Increased Community Service:
“The number two vote at present is our service and impact on our local community.” (Dr. Warren Bird, 11:30)
"Magnetic community service as a key piece of an invite culture..." (Rich Birch, 11:37)
Rising Spiritual Engagement by Young Adults:
“It's the spiritual response by young adults... We have seen a clear increase in the spiritual interest of that group.” (Dr. Warren Bird, 12:24)
The Essential Role of Small Groups:
“When it was first asked many years ago, it was right at 50%. Every single survey it has inched up. The last survey, it was 89%. ...Responses so far, 92% give the highest rank to small groups.” (Dr. Warren Bird, 14:03)
Growing Importance of Leadership Pipelines:
"92% have said yes [to training programs for future church leaders]... The median is 15." (Dr. Warren Bird, 17:45, 18:03)
On Internal Development vs. Seminary Pathways:
Room Size & Volunteer Engagement:
"Think smaller rooms, more services, more campuses... I'd rather go the other way. Let's have a smaller room... now we require more people to be involved." (Rich Birch, 23:41)
Evolving the Attractional Model:
“When I started 20, 30 years ago, you could do things that were classically attractional... I actually don’t think that works anymore... People are coming, they’re pushing through some sort of cultural resistance to be there.” (Rich Birch, 26:25)
"To come in person, I can be hugged... be prayed over in person... That's one of the many pulls for people coming back." (Dr. Warren Bird, 29:03)
Post-Pandemic Recovery Patterns:
"53%... have come back at least 10% more than they were in 2019. Some have spectacularly, dramatically come back three times the size..." (Dr. Warren Bird, 31:45)
Leadership Ages Are Dropping:
"The average pastor age is considerably younger senior pastor than when we did the survey five years ago, which says there's a whole new generation..." (Dr. Warren Bird, 34:13)
Not Uniform Results:
Both hosts note a “K-shaped recovery”—some churches thriving, others struggling post-pandemic, influenced by local economic shifts, leadership change, or other external factors.
On the Distrust of Big Churches:
"Somehow we think... GoFundMe where there's zero accountability, that my money is going to be better used than in an established church."
— Dr. Warren Bird (08:05)
On Small Groups and Growth:
"You get bigger by getting smaller. And that intimacy that you were reflecting on, that's where people thrive."
— Dr. Warren Bird (15:03)
On Leadership Development:
"So far in the findings, 92% [of large churches] have said yes [to leadership training programs]."
— Dr. Warren Bird (17:45)
On Facility Size and Volunteer Engagement:
"I'd rather go the other way... Let's have a smaller room... now we require more people to be involved."
— Rich Birch (23:41)
On the Shift from Attractional Models:
"When I started 20, 30 years ago... classically attractional... I actually don't think that works anymore because the people... are more unchurched today."
— Rich Birch (26:25)
On In-Person Church Post-Pandemic:
"You can't be hugged... you can be prayed over in person... that's one of the many pulls for people coming back."
— Dr. Warren Bird (29:03)
On Comeback Data:
"53%...have come back at least 10% more than they were in 2019. But some have spectacularly, dramatically come back three times the size."
— Dr. Warren Bird (31:45)
To Participate or Learn More:
Connect with Dr. Warren Bird: