Podcast Summary

Episode Overview

Podcast: unSeminary Podcast
Host: Rich Birch
Guest: Dr. Warren Bird
Episode: "The Future of Large Churches: Early Findings from the 2025 Survey"
Date: October 9, 2025

This episode features Dr. Warren Bird, renowned author and researcher, sharing exclusive early findings from his 2025 survey on the future of large churches (defined as those with 1,000+ in-person attendance). The conversation explores post-pandemic changes, emerging trends, and challenges facing large churches, confronting both cultural skepticism and leadership development strategies. Throughout, Warren and Rich dig into what’s next for megachurches, address common criticisms, and highlight actionable insights for leaders of churches of all sizes.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The State and Stereotypes of Large Churches

• Rise & Scrutiny of Large Churches:
  Dr. Bird outlines how large churches have shifted the landscape over 50 years but have faced skepticism, especially post-pandemic.

  "Large churches were hit the hardest... Unless you were in, like, Florida or Texas, where they didn’t even participate in the pandemic. But the rest of us got hit hard." (Dr. Warren Bird, 04:14)

• Cultural Distrust of Institutions:
  Growing public distrust toward large organizations, including churches, stems from broader cultural skepticism and media focus on scandals.

  "Probably the biggest reason is the cultural distrust of institutions, church included... There have been enough scandals that the media highlighted..." (Dr. Warren Bird, 08:05)

• Defending the Impact of Large Churches:
  Bird emphasizes that all churches, regardless of size, have unique roles, but large churches can provide specialized ministries—like special needs programs—not always feasible in smaller churches.

  “When a church is explosively growing and it's genuine... Large churches have the opportunity to do things that other sized churches don't.” (Dr. Warren Bird, 10:01)

Early Survey Findings: Key Trends Since the Pandemic

• Increased Community Service:

  • Finding: #2 positive change is enhanced service and impact on local communities.

    “The number two vote at present is our service and impact on our local community.” (Dr. Warren Bird, 11:30)

  • Host’s Observation: Community service can act as a magnetic tool for church invitation culture.

    "Magnetic community service as a key piece of an invite culture..." (Rich Birch, 11:37)

• Rising Spiritual Engagement by Young Adults:

  • Finding: The top reported increase is in spiritual response among young adults.

    “It's the spiritual response by young adults... We have seen a clear increase in the spiritual interest of that group.” (Dr. Warren Bird, 12:24)

• The Essential Role of Small Groups:

  • Historical Trend: Strong upward trajectory in the importance of small groups for discipleship.

    “When it was first asked many years ago, it was right at 50%. Every single survey it has inched up. The last survey, it was 89%. ...Responses so far, 92% give the highest rank to small groups.” (Dr. Warren Bird, 14:03)

Leadership & Development Shifts

• Growing Importance of Leadership Pipelines:

  • Finding: Among churches with 5,000+ attendance, 92% have residency or similar leadership training programs, with a median of 15 leaders in active development for 2025.

    "92% have said yes [to training programs for future church leaders]... The median is 15." (Dr. Warren Bird, 17:45, 18:03)

  • All Sizes Engage: Even churches with 1,000 or 2,000 attendance report strong leadership development involvement.

• On Internal Development vs. Seminary Pathways:

  • Churches are increasingly growing their own leaders rather than relying solely on seminaries as pipelines for future pastors and missionaries.

Facility Size, Growth Models, and Participation

• Room Size & Volunteer Engagement:

  • The largest typical worship venues for megachurches seat around 1,400, challenging stereotypes of “colossal sanctuaries.”
  • Host Prediction: Smaller rooms and multiple services/campuses drive higher volunteer engagement and deeper community.

    "Think smaller rooms, more services, more campuses... I'd rather go the other way. Let's have a smaller room... now we require more people to be involved." (Rich Birch, 23:41)

• Evolving the Attractional Model:

  • Dr. Bird and Rich discuss the trajectory of attractional church models, with Rich noting a shift:

    “When I started 20, 30 years ago, you could do things that were classically attractional... I actually don’t think that works anymore... People are coming, they’re pushing through some sort of cultural resistance to be there.” (Rich Birch, 26:25)

  • The need for participatory, in-person experiences is now more pronounced post-pandemic, such as increased emphasis on prayer, communion, and genuine community.

    "To come in person, I can be hugged... be prayed over in person... That's one of the many pulls for people coming back." (Dr. Warren Bird, 29:03)

Recovery and Generational Shifts

• Post-Pandemic Recovery Patterns:

  • 53% of surveyed megachurches have not only recovered but grown at least 10% beyond 2019 in-person attendance; some report 2-3x growth.

    "53%... have come back at least 10% more than they were in 2019. Some have spectacularly, dramatically come back three times the size..." (Dr. Warren Bird, 31:45)

• Leadership Ages Are Dropping:

  • The average senior pastor age in megachurches has fallen, indicating a new generation of leaders is emerging.

    "The average pastor age is considerably younger senior pastor than when we did the survey five years ago, which says there's a whole new generation..." (Dr. Warren Bird, 34:13)

• Not Uniform Results:
  Both hosts note a “K-shaped recovery”—some churches thriving, others struggling post-pandemic, influenced by local economic shifts, leadership change, or other external factors.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Distrust of Big Churches:
  "Somehow we think... GoFundMe where there's zero accountability, that my money is going to be better used than in an established church."
  — Dr. Warren Bird (08:05)

• On Small Groups and Growth:
  "You get bigger by getting smaller. And that intimacy that you were reflecting on, that's where people thrive."
  — Dr. Warren Bird (15:03)

• On Leadership Development:
  "So far in the findings, 92% [of large churches] have said yes [to leadership training programs]."
  — Dr. Warren Bird (17:45)

• On Facility Size and Volunteer Engagement:
  "I'd rather go the other way... Let's have a smaller room... now we require more people to be involved."
  — Rich Birch (23:41)

• On the Shift from Attractional Models:
  "When I started 20, 30 years ago... classically attractional... I actually don't think that works anymore because the people... are more unchurched today."
  — Rich Birch (26:25)

• On In-Person Church Post-Pandemic:
  "You can't be hugged... you can be prayed over in person... that's one of the many pulls for people coming back."
  — Dr. Warren Bird (29:03)

• On Comeback Data:
  "53%...have come back at least 10% more than they were in 2019. But some have spectacularly, dramatically come back three times the size."
  — Dr. Warren Bird (31:45)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:31–06:36: Warren introduces the 2025 large church survey and its purpose
• 08:05–10:57: Discussing skepticism toward large churches and their unique impact
• 10:57–12:24: Early survey finding: Community service impact up (#2 change)
• 12:24–13:34: Early survey finding: Spiritual engagement by young adults up (#1 change)
• 14:03–15:24: Importance of small groups in large church discipleship
• 16:42–18:03: Leadership development: majority of large churches have active pipelines
• 22:47–25:16: Facility size myths, volunteer engagement, and predictions
• 25:16–29:03: The fate and future of “attractional church” models
• 30:49–34:13: Post-pandemic comeback rates, generational shifts in leadership
• 35:07–36:17: K-shaped recovery, variances in local church resilience
• 36:23–37:13: Survey logistics and value to participants

Key Takeaways for Listeners

• The 2025 survey offers unique, early insights into how large churches are changing post-pandemic, especially around young adult engagement, community service, and leadership development.
• The future of large churches is not monolithic—many are growing steadily, shifting to deeper discipleship (especially through small groups), while cultivating internal leadership pathways.
• Common stereotypes about megachurches—whether about their facilities or being “an inch deep”—often miss the innovation and vitality these congregations are demonstrating today.
• Both challenges and opportunities abound: generational leadership shifts, adapting ministry models, and regaining/growing attendance after COVID require nuanced understanding and strategic focus.
• Practical application: Even if your church isn’t large, these findings and methods can inform effective growth and discipleship strategies for churches of any size.

To Participate or Learn More:

• Churches with 1,000+ in-person attendance are invited to participate in the survey at bit.ly/largechurch2025 (open until November 11, 2025).
• Survey participants gain early access to the full report and exclusive webinars.

Connect with Dr. Warren Bird:

• Most active on LinkedIn; his books (e.g., Becoming a Future Ready Church, Better Together, Hero Maker) are widely used resources for church leaders.