44:I[58016,["/_next/static/chunks/b5ea50e123aa84a6.js","/_next/static/chunks/050761d0d0bdc5d8.js","/_next/static/chunks/de880ec5a0241b38.js","/_next/static/chunks/48003610e91209eb.js","/_next/static/chunks/15a1b1fbd3cf7d4a.js","/_next/static/chunks/81ce7bf5f20dbd5a.js","/_next/static/chunks/86498082dde169e6.js","/_next/static/chunks/903c358828afe0bc.js","/_next/static/chunks/f63fb02bc4156bfb.js","/_next/static/chunks/88bed98e5cd5e639.js"],"ProcessEpisodeButton"] 46:I[185,["/_next/static/chunks/b5ea50e123aa84a6.js","/_next/static/chunks/050761d0d0bdc5d8.js","/_next/static/chunks/de880ec5a0241b38.js","/_next/static/chunks/48003610e91209eb.js","/_next/static/chunks/15a1b1fbd3cf7d4a.js","/_next/static/chunks/81ce7bf5f20dbd5a.js","/_next/static/chunks/86498082dde169e6.js","/_next/static/chunks/903c358828afe0bc.js","/_next/static/chunks/f63fb02bc4156bfb.js","/_next/static/chunks/88bed98e5cd5e639.js"],"SendEmailButton"] 47:I[45269,["/_next/static/chunks/b5ea50e123aa84a6.js","/_next/static/chunks/050761d0d0bdc5d8.js","/_next/static/chunks/de880ec5a0241b38.js","/_next/static/chunks/48003610e91209eb.js","/_next/static/chunks/15a1b1fbd3cf7d4a.js","/_next/static/chunks/81ce7bf5f20dbd5a.js","/_next/static/chunks/86498082dde169e6.js","/_next/static/chunks/903c358828afe0bc.js","/_next/static/chunks/f63fb02bc4156bfb.js","/_next/static/chunks/88bed98e5cd5e639.js"],"SignupCTA"] 49:I[56939,["/_next/static/chunks/b5ea50e123aa84a6.js","/_next/static/chunks/050761d0d0bdc5d8.js","/_next/static/chunks/de880ec5a0241b38.js","/_next/static/chunks/48003610e91209eb.js","/_next/static/chunks/15a1b1fbd3cf7d4a.js","/_next/static/chunks/81ce7bf5f20dbd5a.js","/_next/static/chunks/86498082dde169e6.js","/_next/static/chunks/903c358828afe0bc.js","/_next/static/chunks/f63fb02bc4156bfb.js","/_next/static/chunks/88bed98e5cd5e639.js"],"EpisodeTranscript"] 3c:["$","path",null,{"strokeLinecap":"round","strokeLinejoin":"round","strokeWidth":2,"d":"M8 7V3m8 4V3m-9 8h10M5 21h14a2 2 0 002-2V7a2 2 0 00-2-2H5a2 2 0 00-2 2v12a2 2 0 002 2z"}] 3d:["$","time",null,{"dateTime":"2026-04-03T03:00:00.000Z","children":"Fri Apr 03 2026"}] 3e:["$","p",null,{"className":"text-base text-foreground/80 leading-relaxed","children":"The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iran’s nuclear program survives. And while the regime has been weakened, it remains intact. So what has President Trump accomplished—and what comes next in the war?"}] 45:T526,

The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iran’s nuclear program survives. And while the regime has been weakened, it remains intact. So what has President Trump accomplished—and what comes next in the war? Today on School of War, we’re doing something a little different. Instead of sitting in the interviewer’s chair, as I usually do – I’m the one being interviewed. I joined Rafaela Siewert of The Free Press to talk through my current thinking on the war in Iran.

▪️

Times

02:03 Trump’s speech

05:22 Escalation

10:10 Goals

12:25 Risk and scale

15:15 Kinds of surprise

17:37 Misreading the Iranians

22:10 15 Points

25:49 Opening the Strait of Hormuz

29:24 Branding

32:44 Oil

37:15 Kharg Island

41:35 Regime alteration

44:20 Time and resources

48:49 Balance

50:11 Trump, MAGA, and the Right

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Trump Says We’re ‘Winning’ in Iran. It’s More Complicated.